DMB coming to an end.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:24 pm

Having been on the ExCo, I know that sometimes the ExCo needs a kick in the ass to get stuff done. Even if they don't decide NOW what to use, they should at least set up a framework for the decisions.
For instance, are you going to push back opening day in order to further evaluate the options? If so, there should probably be some kind of limit on that (and an announcement about it). If not, then there needs to be a timetable set up, JP (or whomever) is going to need time to update the new DB and GM's are going to want time to make signings and trades before the season starts.
Also, as of now, there are a lot of options on the table that have been kicked around, at least eliminate a few of them. Even to say "if PECOTA's product isn't up to par with ZIPS, then we'll use ZIPS" would be a start.
Zips' projections are out, so are PECOTA's (albeit not in DMB format yet). that's the most important information, right there.

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 3:02 pm

RedSox wrote:Having been on the ExCo, I know that sometimes the ExCo needs a kick in the ass to get stuff done. Even if they don't decide NOW what to use, they should at least set up a framework for the decisions.
For instance, are you going to push back opening day in order to further evaluate the options? If so, there should probably be some kind of limit on that (and an announcement about it). If not, then there needs to be a timetable set up, JP (or whomever) is going to need time to update the new DB and GM's are going to want time to make signings and trades before the season starts.
Also, as of now, there are a lot of options on the table that have been kicked around, at least eliminate a few of them. Even to say "if PECOTA's product isn't up to par with ZIPS, then we'll use ZIPS" would be a start.
Zips' projections are out, so are PECOTA's (albeit not in DMB format yet). that's the most important information, right there.

I know that when you read my comments, all you think about is how you're going to go about arguing with them, but as I said last night, the feelings thus far have been that we are probably going with ZiPS unless a PECOTA presents a similarly viable option. Since we have neither seen a final ZiPS product nor news from BP, it's pretty hard to make a hard statement beyond that. Everyone is talking. We'll move when a few more days pass and it's time to move forward or when we have something more concrete. At this point, it's hard for me to see, other than because you love to cause problems for the league (or as you call it "shaking things up"), why declaring something final on March 4 is smarter than on, say, March 10, considering what we know.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 4:30 pm

Tigers wrote:
RedSox wrote:Having been on the ExCo, I know that sometimes the ExCo needs a kick in the ass to get stuff done. Even if they don't decide NOW what to use, they should at least set up a framework for the decisions.
For instance, are you going to push back opening day in order to further evaluate the options? If so, there should probably be some kind of limit on that (and an announcement about it). If not, then there needs to be a timetable set up, JP (or whomever) is going to need time to update the new DB and GM's are going to want time to make signings and trades before the season starts.
Also, as of now, there are a lot of options on the table that have been kicked around, at least eliminate a few of them. Even to say "if PECOTA's product isn't up to par with ZIPS, then we'll use ZIPS" would be a start.
Zips' projections are out, so are PECOTA's (albeit not in DMB format yet). that's the most important information, right there.
I know that when you read my comments, all you think about is how you're going to go about arguing with them, but as I said last night, the feelings thus far have been that we are probably going with ZiPS unless a PECOTA presents a similarly viable option. Since we have neither seen a final ZiPS product nor news from BP, it's pretty hard to make a hard statement beyond that. Everyone is talking. We'll move when a few more days pass and it's time to move forward or when we have something more concrete. At this point, it's hard for me to see, other than because you love to cause problems for the league (or as you call it "shaking things up"), why declaring something final on March 4 is smarter than on, say, March 10, considering what we know.

This has nothing to do with shaking things up, this is about making a decision at some point other than the last possible moment. It never should have gotten to the point where we didn't know what was going to happen if DMB did this.
And frankly, the opinion and thoughts of one member of the ExCo don't count for much. You're speaking for yourself, just as I'm speaking for myself. You're one member of the ExCo. So far the only thing the ExCo has said officially is that we have a signing freeze. if you guys have decided something further, I'm sure I'm not the only one who would like to hear what it is. At least set a deadline for a decision so we aren't all sitting here twiddling our thumbs wondering what's happening and when we'll finally hear something.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 4:46 pm

As Brett said, there is no final product available for either ZiPS or PECOTA. Why should we make a decision on what to use when we don't know what we are going to use? My stance is that we will use the one that offers splits and defensive ratings. We don't know what PECOTA's will offer at this point.

DBacks · Post by **DBacks** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 4:49 pm

Pirates wrote:As Brett said, there is no final product available for either ZiPS or PECOTA. Why should we make a decision on what to use when we don't know what we are going to use? My stance is that we will use the one that offers splits and defensive ratings. We don't know what PECOTA's will offer at this point.

I think thats pretty much how the entire league feels right now. From the few GMs I have discussed ZiPS with, no one seems to mind waiting to see what PECOTA has to offer.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 5:14 pm

Rays wrote:From what I've read PECOTA might put out a disk. Even if people are dead set on waiting until BP decides whether or not they're going to produce one, everyone should familiarize themselves with the ZIPS disk. I put together a quick and dirty DB last night and I'll send it to whoever wants a copy.

Incorrect, if people start playing with the DB then I'll lose all the advantages I've got from playing with it myself

. In all seriousness if someone can walk me through sharing a whole DB I'm happy to share mine as well.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 5:39 pm

There's no reason for us to rush to a decision on this. It is March 4, not March 28. Let's wait and see what we have to work with and then go with the best option. If ZIPS has splits and D ratings, we go with it, obviously. If PECOTA winds up having those then we can debate on those. But making a decision now just for the sake of making a decision is a terrible idea

RedSox · Post by **RedSox** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 5:47 pm

I agree. Zips hasn't released the final build and it's not a lock PECOTA even will put theirs into DMB format, so making a decision right now seems hasty.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:28 pm

I've been studying Zips D ratings and I actually think they are pretty strong, I haven't gotten any ridiculous results and the guys are all rated about where they belong in my head.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:59 pm

Simple question... Is the ExCo willing to push back the start of the season or not? If not, you guys need to set some deadlines on when decisions will be made. If so, how far are you willing to go?

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 9:55 pm

RedSox wrote:Simple question... Is the ExCo willing to push back the start of the season or not? If not, you guys need to set some deadlines on when decisions will be made. If so, how far are you willing to go?

Simple answer ... we will let you know when we know.

How far are we willing to go? Far enough that we we believe we are acting in the best interests of the league ...

Not sue yet ... but I suspect all the bullying in the world from some guy in Colorado isn't gonna speed up the process.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Thu Mar 05, 2009 2:39 pm

Well THIS guy in Colorado believes we should be more prudent in our decision making than sticking to some arbitrary decision making deadlines.

I want the best system in place possible given the circumstances. Zips, from what I am hearing, seems like there are some issues with the projections.. But a final version is not out.. Well, I don't mind waiting to see a finished product. Maybe those issues will have, for the most part, been addressed.

And then again maybe they won't, which is why I don't want to make a rash decision under some false decision making deadline and go with the shittier database.

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:43 pm

Has anyone already migrated the ZiPs with IBC? If so, can you send me a copy as a preliminary, so I can start playing around and making moves. If not, I'll probably wind up doing it at some point this week, but I was trying to avoid redundancy, as I suspect a few people have already done it in this league.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 11:56 pm

One idea I do like, in terms of sort of combining databases, would be to take the season discs' park factors and use them in our projections, sans Yankee Stadium and Citi field. It seems that ZiPS were really lazy with park factors and for a lot of parks its exactly the same on lefties and righties. Thoughts on this?

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 12:26 am

There's a reasonable argument to be made for that I think.

RedSox · Post by **RedSox** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 8:33 am

Bill James' book usually has park factors, 3yr and most recent.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 2:19 pm

Very good suggestion.

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 2:49 pm

Sounds good to me.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 3:17 am

So, is it safe to assume we are going with zips? That's seems to be the prevailing feeling I get reading posts around here.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 6:34 am

At the moment there are no other options, so Zips has that going for it...

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 9:11 pm

Reds wrote:So, is it safe to assume we are going with zips? That's seems to be the prevailing feeling I get reading posts around here.

Yeah, unless something pretty surprising happens, it seems pretty safe. Given that there is no other viable (or nonviable that I know of) projection DB out there, and given that you apparently have to import projections player by player, our options for the overall projection system are very limited. And again, every other projection based DMB league that I'm personally familiar with is planning on using them.

Mariners · Post by **Mariners** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 3:08 am

Well there's an updated version, let's get this thing going. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... t_build_2/

UPDATE! 3/13

The uploaded spreadsheet and disk have been uploaded with bug fixes and new players.

The new players are Darrell Rasner, Paul Abraham, Steve Bray, Dallas Buck, Jose Ceda, Chris Cody, Vic Darensbourg, Fautino de los Santos, Gabe DeHoyos, J.D. Durbin, Justin Germano, Deolis Guerra, Brad Halsey, Justin Hedrick, Rodrigo Lopez, Mark McLemore, Tomo Ohka, Sean O'Sullivan, Mark Prior (sigh), Tyler Robertson, Brian Rogers, Jorge Sosa, Oswaldo Sosa, Mike Stanton, Will Startup, Madison Bumgarner, Jhoulys Chacin, Joseph Martinez, Ryan Perry, Pete LaForest, Raul Casanova, Adrian Cardenas, Brady Clark, Tony Graffanino, Toby Hall, Wes Hodges, Luis Jimenez, Brennan King, Corey Koskie, Jason Lane, Pablo Ozuna, Ryan Royster, Randy Ruiz, Jonathan Still, and Mitch Jones.

The disk includes some big fixes and updates, including but not limited to UID dupes fixed, Bogusevic becoming dual-role player with hitting projection, 3B rating for Joe Mather, 2B rating for Skip Schumaker, LF rating for Ian Stewart.

This update includes the last of the "official projections." If a league still really needs a player, I'll be happy to give a projection to their commissioner for entry into the league's disk, but after a month of asking for requests, I really have to cut it off now so that people can get on with their league business and not have to worry about me randomly adding another 20 players in a week. Now, there may be a few extras on the final "simmable" disk depending on how depth charts turn out (though we have pretty good coverage now), but for the purposes of DMB Projection leagues, I consider this a complete player list for 2009. I regret not being able to do projection for Viciedo or Tazawa, but I literally have nothing to go on.

The depth charts and lineups are courtesy of SG, ZiPS Best Friend. I will be tweaking those depth charts and lineups to be consistent with the way I do them and incorporating manager profiles kindly donated by Derek Zumsteg and Chris Needham, for a 25-man roster depth chart/lineup release sometime between the 20th and 30th of the month.

I hope you all enjoy the disk. There are issues where there will be philosophical differences, such as the predictive value of platoon splits, but I hope the sum creates enjoyment for as many reading this as possible. And don't forget that obnoxious donate button - I've gotta spoil the g/f after the number of weekends I've spent nose deep in Excel and Statistica. Consider this the Dan Szymborski Pledge Drive and you won't have to hear it again until next year!

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 11:19 am

so is he going to finish up splits?

Marlins · Post by **Marlins** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 11:55 am

Mark Prior!!!

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 1:50 pm

Adrian Cardenas

What's the point if he's going to project .230/290?