2007 Marlins Draft Review

[Orioles]

2007 IBC Marlins Draft

1. Joe Savery, LH SP
2. Wendell Fairley, OF
3. J.P. Arencibia, C
4. Jake Smolinski, OF
5. Mason Tobin, RH SP
6. Wilmer Flores, SS

[Orioles]

Round 1, Pick 22




Joe Savery, LH SP ï Age: 22 ï B-T: L-L ï Ht: 6-3 ï Wt: 215 ï Drafted: Rice, 2007 (1st round, Philadelphia)

Background: After starring as a freshman at Rice in 2005, Savery looked like he'd be a top-five draft pick just like fellow Lamar High (Houston) alumnus Jeff Niemann. But like a lot of Owls pitchers, Savery came down with medical issues. He had minor surgery after his sophomore season to shave down a bone growth in the back of his shoulder that was causing some fraying in his labrum. He wasn't at his best last spring, which allowed him to slide to the Phillies at No. 19. He signed for $1,372,500.

Strengths: As a lefty two-way player in college, he garnered comparisons to Mark Mulder. While his fastball velocity was down for much of the spring, Savery flashed 90-94 mph heaters by May and pitched at 88-92 mph in his pro debut. He also can be effective at 86-89 mph. His changeup has the potential to be an above-average pitch and his slurvy breaking ball grades as average to plus. The Phillies rave about his work ethic.

Weaknesses: Just a year removed from surgery, Savery predictably struggled with the command of all his pitches in his pro debut. He didn't repeat his delivery well, in part because he was worn down. The last four Rice starting pitchers drafted in the first round have had major arm surgeries, a track record that scared a lot of clubs.

The Future: Philadelphia sent Savery to the Arizona Fall League because they thought his makeup was well-suited for the challenge, which should expedite his development. He'll open 2008 in low Class A and could move quickly if he performs well and shows the ability to maintain his mechanics and velocity deep into games. He could make his big league debut by 2009. [C. Kline, BA Phillies Top 10]

NY-Penn League (SS): 26.1 IP, 7 GS, 2.73 ERA, 22 H, 22 K, 13 BB, .214 BAA

Savery had a decorated collegiate career at Rice, winning Baseball America's Freshman of the Year award in 2005 and first-team All-America honors as a two-way star this spring. The Phillies might never have gotten the chance to draft him at No. 19 had he not been slowed by offseason surgery to shave down a bone growth in his shoulder, and they monitored his workload carefully this summer.

Savery looked good in limited action, running his fastball up to 92 mph and showing an above-average downer curveball and solid changeup. He's very polished, with command of all his offerings and a smooth, repeatable delivery. [A. Fitt, BA NY-P (SS) Top 20]

Arizona Fall League: 14 IP, 5 GS, 0.64 ERA, 4 H, 5 K, 11 BB, .091 BAA

Like a lot of Rice pitchers, Savery comes with some medical baggage. The 2007 first-rounder had minor surgery last year to shave down a bone growth in the back of his shoulder that was causing some fraying in his labrum. That didn't affect his reputation too badly, as the Dodgers were ready to take him if the Phillies didn't in the first round. In the AFL, Savery showed much better stuff than his pro debut. He clearly benefited from the short break between instructional league and the Fall League, finishing 1-1, 0.64 in 14 innings. Savery's fastball velocity was 87-92, but still struggled to command it at times. His secondary pitchesóa slurvy breaking ball and changeupóstill need more polish, and his 5-11 strikeout-walk ratio is indicative of that. [C. Kline, BA AFL Top 20]

[Orioles]

Round 2, Pick 52




Wendell Fairley, OF ï Age: 19 ï B-T: L-R ï Ht: 6-0 ï Wt: 190 ï Drafted: HSóLucedale, Miss., 2007 (1st round, SF)

Background: The best all-around high school athlete in the 2007 draft, Fairley hit .538 with nine home runs, went 9-2 as a pitcher and drew interest from several Southeastern Conference football programs as a wide receiver. He remained something of a wild card because he didn't participate in many showcases, and lasted until San Francisco drafted him 29th overall and signed him for $1 million.

Strengths: Fairley generates tremendous bat speed, reminiscent of a young Fred Lewis, and has the tools to hit for average and power. He didn't let many fastballs get past him in instructional league. He has easily above-average speed, the range to play center field and an above-average arm.

Weaknesses: Fairley is still very raw at the plate and will need time to develop. He'll have to learn to recognize and react to offspeed pitches. He couldn't do much in instructional league because he was slowed by shoulder tendinitis. The Giants aren't concerned about his checkered legal past, which includes a misdemeanor conviction for contributing to the delinquency of a minor. His attorney is appealing the conviction, saying it smacked of discrimination. He also faced assault charges after a prank on a high school bus, but that case was dismissed.

The Future: He has the highest ceiling among San Francisco's position prospects, but Fairley likely will move one level at a time and probably won't see the majors before 2011 at the earliest. He'll make his pro debut in low Class A. [A. Baggerly, BA Giants Top 10]

2007 Stats: DNP

Although Fairley's athletic ability and talent were recognized early, he has been somewhat of a mystery to most scouts because he split time between football (as a wide receiver) and baseball in high school. He also never showed interest in playing in showcases. Fairley's tools are unquestioned. He shows ability to hit for average as well as plus power, and his quick lefthanded stroke allows him to pull balls out of the park or line them to left field. He's a plus runner with solid-average arm strength and defensive ability that play perfectly in center field. He's just scratching the surface of his potential, and could develop into a player in the mold of Carl Crawford. [from BA Draft scouting report]

[Orioles]

Round 3, Pick 82




J.P. Arencibia, C ï Age: 22 ï B-T: R-R ï Ht: 6-1 ï Wt: 210 ï Drafted: Tennessee, 2007 (1st round, Toronto)

Background: Arenicibia tied Alex Rodriguez' career record with 17 homers at Miami's Westminster Christian High, and he led USA Baseball's college national team with nine homers in the summer of 2006. A strained muscle in his back contributed to a lackluster junior season at Tennessee, but he still went 21st overall in the 2007 draft and signed for $1,327,500.

Strengths: Power long has been Arencibia's calling card. He's an aggressive hitter with juice to all fields. He has decent mobility and a strong arm, which he employed to throw out 34 percent of basestealers in his debut. He blocks balls well and made progress calling games. He's a natural leader who's also fluent in Spanish.

Weaknesses: Arencibia's swing gets long and he tends to have too much of an uppercut. He'll need to shorten his stroke and tighten his strike zone to hit for average. His receiving skills were rudimentary at best in college. The Blue Jays have worked on his setup to help him better receive the ball to his glove side, with his elbow down instead of out. Though his arm is strong, his footwork often prevents him from getting off quicker throws.

The Future: With Curtis Thigpen and Robinzon Diaz close to being big league ready, Toronto can afford to take its time with Arencibia. He'll begin his first full season in high Class A. [M. Eddy, BA Jays Top 10]

NY-Penn League (SS): .254/.309/.377, 228 AB, 17 2B, 3 HR

Arencibia entered his junior year at Tennessee as a potential top 10 pick, but he was slowed by a strained muscle in his back early this spring and slipped to Toronto at No. 21 overall. It took him some time to get comfortable in pro ball, and he was hit by a pitch on his left wrist in midsummer, which sapped his power. In the past, he showed above-average pull power with wood bats with Team USA.

Arencibia should hit for power with a decent average, but his catch-and-throw skills have been widely debated. The consensus this summer was that he's a good enough defender to catch in the big leagues.

He has decent mobility and a strong arm, though he's still working on getting rid of the ball quicker and controlling the running game. Arencibia threw out 34 percent of basestealers in the NY-P. He blocks balls well and made progress calling games. [A. Fitt, BA NY-P Top 20]

[Orioles]

Round 4, Pick 112




Jake Smolinski, OF ï Age: 18 ï B-T: R-R ï Ht: 5-11 ï Wt: 185 ï Drafted: HS, 2007 (2nd round, Washington)

GCL (R): .305/.387/.410, 105 AB