Fukudome

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:26 am

DEFINITELY COMING TO MLB

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3149919

WhiteSox · Post by **WhiteSox** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:53 am

We have some impatient GMs here...

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:22 am

I think JB is still waiting for the official signed and notorized announcement from Fukudome and his agent anouncing their intention to sign with the highest bidder in the U.S. to reach the MLB offices in New York.

Doesn't want Fukudome to pull a fast one on him and back out.

DBacks · Post by **DBacks** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:23 am

also the difference between Fuko playing in Petco and Fuko playing in say, Wrigley, are noticable enough to effect where he's drafted IMO.

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:32 am

Cubs wrote:also the difference between Fuko playing in Petco and Fuko playing in say, Wrigley, are noticable enough to effect where he's drafted IMO.

Most definately. If he signs with the Padres, that impact from Petco Park would mean he probably shouldn't be picked until something like pick #17. Anything earlier would be way over valuing him.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 12:05 pm

if he plays in Petco then he'll probably play CF assuming SD doesn't re-sign Cameron so the value of Fukudome's defense will offset the marginal loss of power

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 12:11 pm

Pirates wrote:if he plays in Petco then he'll probably play CF assuming SD doesn't re-sign Cameron so the value of Fukudome's defense will offset the marginal loss of power

Unless of course the SIM gives him a "poor" defensive rating in CF.

[sarcasm] Oh, it could be tragic. JB could draft him. Then he signs with San Diego next week and next thing you know his value plummets and he ends up with Ryan Church type projections.

Everyone should probably wait to see who he signs with before they consider drafting him. [/sarcasm]

Figured I'd better add those just in case some people couldn't pick up on it.

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 12:45 pm

Fukudome gets .290 26 85 regardless of who he signs with....he'll make a nice bench player for the Yankees...let's move on.

Marlins · Post by **Marlins** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 1:17 pm

I bet it's closer to 275 22 80 with 360 obp

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:39 pm

I was trying to help him make a decision man....gotta wax the car to sell it.

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:48 pm

JB knows who he is picking. He's just enjoying stringing it out a bit.

Unless of course, he heard the inside information that leaked out this afternoon that the MLB rejected Fukudome's request to join the MLB and he's now thinking about staying in Japan.

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:47 pm

Okay Brandon, make your pick. And don't pretend like you're not taking Fukudome, because any other pick after making that trade should result in your being swiftly shunned by the entire IBC community.

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:48 pm

And that's why JB traded for this pick and then sat on it. Because he knew some stupid fuck would 10x overpay for the right to get Fukudome.

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:50 pm

Dodgers wrote:Okay Brandon, make your pick. And don't pretend like you're not taking Fukudome, because any other pick after making that trade should result in your being swiftly shunned by the entire IBC community.

Actually I'd find it pretty humorous if they did that deal and Brandon passed on Fuku and left him for JB. Maybe JB could deal it again to Brandon on Christmas night.

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:07 pm

Cubs wrote:also the difference between Fuko playing in Petco and Fuko playing in say, Wrigley, are noticable enough to effect where he's drafted IMO.

Kosuke Fukudome Signs With Cubs
Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio reports that the Cubs have signed Kosuke Fukudome to a four-year deal. Kaplan says it's for about $50MM, maybe a hair more. Fukudome will be a free agent after the fourth year; there will be no arbitration.

The Cubs got their man for right field; he'll provide a strong dose of OBP. The quality of available right fielders drops off drastically after Fukudome. The deal isn't without risk, obviously, since Fukudome is untested in the Majors. Peter Gammons talked to a GM who described Fukudome as "a cross between Ichiro and a young, healthy Mark Kotsay."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:33 pm

That trade is godawful. Sorry, but I may have to protest this one.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:39 pm

Mets wrote:
Cubs wrote:also the difference between Fuko playing in Petco and Fuko playing in say, Wrigley, are noticable enough to effect where he's drafted IMO.
Kosuke Fukudome Signs With Cubs
Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio reports that the Cubs have signed Kosuke Fukudome to a four-year deal. Kaplan says it's for about $50MM, maybe a hair more. Fukudome will be a free agent after the fourth year; there will be no arbitration.

The Cubs got their man for right field; he'll provide a strong dose of OBP. The quality of available right fielders drops off drastically after Fukudome. The deal isn't without risk, obviously, since Fukudome is untested in the Majors. Peter Gammons talked to a GM who described Fukudome as "a cross between Ichiro and a young, healthy Mark Kotsay."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

There's nothing about Fukudome that justifies a comparison to Ichiro. Ichiro was (and remains) a speedy, high average hitter. Fukudome is Matsui-Lite. best-case scenario he puts up an OPS around .850

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Wed Dec 12, 2007 3:33 pm

The following is from a 5x5 Fantasy (Roto) perspective rather then SIM but provides some light on Fuku's potential projections:

BP's Nate Silver ran a PECOTA for Fukudome, found here. However, that projection says he'll get 395 ABs (he's docked because of his elbow injury). Let's assume 550 ABs.

Stretching Silver's projection to 550 ABs, we get .289-21-81-111-13. ... (Rate stats: .289/.401/.504).

I'm guessing Silver projected him as the Cubs' #2 hitter. Jim Hendry spoke yesterday of batting him second, third, or fifth. If he bats second, that should mean 100+ runs and maybe 80 ribbies. If he bats third or fifth the allocation shifts towards RBIs.

The CHONE system, also very good, projects .283/.373/.465, weaker rate stats all around. Over 550 ABs they have him hitting 25 home runs despite the lower SLG projection.

How about ZiPS? Mark them down for .293/.382/.460. That equates to .293-16-81-79-1, a much less impressive fantasy line. For some reason they don't see him running much. He attempted 7 steals in 81 games last year, and 13 in 130 games the year before.

The average projection is around .288-21-81-95-7. Solid, but nothing to go crazy about.

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2007/12/ko ... udome.html

I can't wait to hear Santo mumble mouth around Fuku ... should have the FCC on its toes ...

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Dec 12, 2007 5:57 pm

Those projections are ridiculous for a 30 yr old guy with career #'s of .302/.388/.537 in Japan.

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Thu Dec 13, 2007 12:04 pm

RedSox wrote:Those projections are ridiculous for a 30 yr old guy with career #'s of .302/.388/.537 in Japan.

More detail from BP:

Fukudome: The New J.D. Drew?

by Nate Silver

Hot-off-the-presses PECOTA projection for Kosuke Fukudome in Chicago:

PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG EqA VORP WARP
465 80 30 4 15 58 70 94 9 3 .289 .401 .504 .303 29.2 4.4

PECOTA holds FukudomeÃs playing time projection down because he missed about half of last season due to elbow surgery. If heÃs healthy in spring training, that should no longer be a concern. And look at that pretty OBP! Fukudome is unlikely to be a huge power threat, but that on-base ability should address one of the CubsÃ« primary areas of weakness. His top comparables give you a pretty good idea of what sort of player weÃre looking at; his is a fairly common profile for a left-handed outfielder.

1. J.D. Drew
2. Gene Hermanski
3. Jim Edmonds
4. Fred Lynn
5. Johnny Grubb
6. Andy Van Slyke
7. Bobby Abreu

The question, of course, is whether theyÃll be smart enough to put him in the leadoff spot (Fukudome also runs pretty well) and demote Alfonso Soriano.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=699

Knowing that Bren is/was a large JD Drew fan I just had to share this ...

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:06 pm

If you're alking Drew of 2007, then I'd agree with the Comp.

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:29 pm

RedSox wrote:Those projections are ridiculous for a 30 yr old guy with career #'s of .302/.388/.537 in Japan.

John Dewan provides this look at Fuku:

How will Kosuke Fukudome do in the USA?

December 14, 2007

Now, how do you say his name? His last name is pronounced foo-koo-DOH-may. How about his first name? Kosuke. I think it is pronounced kos-K, like dice-K (Daisuke Matsuzaka). Or is it KOH-soo-key? (The Bill James Handbook 2008 says KOH-soo-kay.) I'm going with kos-K until I hear otherwise.

Here is an interesting thing: Two seasons ago, at age 29, Fukudome had his best year in Japanese baseball. Two seasons before second baseman Tadahito Iguchi came to the U.S., Iguchi had his best year at age 29. LetÃs compare those years:

Iguchi: .340 Avg, .438 OBP, 27 HR Ã³ not too shabby
Fukudome: .351 Avg, .438 OBP, 31 HR Ã³ remarkably similar

If you can go by this (and other career similarities between Iguchi and Fukudome), Fukudome is going to be a nice player. Iguchi was/is a nice player. But not a tremendously nice player. You know what I mean? Is Fukudome worth $12 million dollars per year as a left-handed hitting outfielder, given his similarities to IguchiÃ³a right-handed hitting second baseman who just signed a one-year, $1 million contract with the Padres?

Based on a limited sample size of about a half-dozen players, they will be very similar. Fukudome might have a little better on-base percentage than Tadahito's .347 U.S figure. Maybe even .360 or .370. But his home run rate in Japan was about the same as Iguchi's in Japan. I think you can expect him to be a 15-20 homer guy like Iguchi. The Cubs need an on-base guy who can bat at the top of the order. That's what Kosuke is, a number two-hitter like Iguchi.

Every player that has come over from Japan has seen his home run rate drop, usually in half or more. Hideki Matsui dropped in half. Kenji Johjima dropped in half. Ichiro Suzuki more than half. Kaz Matsui even worse. Here is a chart that compares the home run rates in each player's last three years in Japan with their MLB home run rate:

Ichiro Suzuki
Japan: 1 every 29 at-bats
US: 1 every 71

Kenji Johjima
Japan: 1 every 15
US: 1 every 31

Hidkei Matsui
Japan: 1 every 11
US: 1 every 25

Kaz Matsui
Japan: 1 every 19
US: 1 every 79

Tadahito Iguchi
Japan: 1 every 21
US: 1 every 36

Kosuke Fukudome
Japan: 1 every 18

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:35 pm

Nice post. it should be noted as well what a HUGE departure 2007 was from Kosuke's (pronounced kos-k like he suggested but with a hint of an sh in the s) career numbers. I liked the guy a lot and still do to some extent but once I started looking at his numbers and comparing them to how the other japanese hitters numbers dropped when they came over to the US, a lot of my interest in him waned.

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