McCann prediction

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:24 pm

On the record, I think McCann is much closer to the player he was in 2005 and 2007 than he was in 2006. Some individuals think 2006 is closer to the type of player he'll be.

Me, I say no way. Still a very talented C, but not top 3 and not a .900 OPS guy.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:34 pm

Stop asking me for him then

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:36 pm

This is the stupidest topic ever. Bren, just because you can't get the guy, don't go flaming on him. Typical "whiny-bitch pre-2004 Red Sox fan" right there.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:06 pm

This has nothing to do with any attempt to trade for McCann, this was the result of a discussion between JP and I (not one where I was trying to trade for him but rather discussing offers made by others for him). JP called him an Elite catcher. We both agree that Elite is top 3 at the position. IMO, that's V-Mart, Mauer and Martin. JP argued McCann instead of V-Mart based on 2006. McCann's 2007 (.772 OPS) was still one of the 5 best among catchers and I think it's close to what he'll typically do. 2006 (.961 OPS) is not something he'll be doing on a regular basis or even close.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:10 pm

Pirates wrote:Stop asking me for him then

I do have occasional interest in non-elite players...

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:14 pm

McCann is how old vs. Vmart?

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:23 pm

Man I hate backing up Bren, but VMart is only 5 years older, and his level of consistency is much better then McCann's. I really hate to rail on McCann because I think he's a great player - but it's clear that VMart is better right now.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:28 pm

Vmart may have been more consistent but he's older and thus has had the opportuntiy to be consistent. If you were to offer me VMart for McCann my answer would be "no way." McCann has only had two complete seasons, one was extraordinary and the other one above average. McCann has only had 2 seasons basically, and having one real high and one above average and you're going to judge him on consistency? come on now. If he goes like this for 6 seasons in a row, great season, solid season, decent season, great season, decent and so on, then sure. But the kid is only 23. I'll take the younger legs and given his 06 i'd say he has more upside considering his OPS was 40 points shy of 1.000, and VMart has never even posted an OPS of 900.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:38 pm

Except that out of his 3 years, McCann has had 2 very similar years and one abnormal year.

VMart's last 4 years have been ops' of .851, .853, .856, .879 - you could argue very easily that he is actually still on an upswing for his career.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:40 pm

Not really sure how you count 59 games as a 21 year old C in the majors as a "year", but if that's how you want to evaluate young talent, by all means be my guest..

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:43 pm

All I'm saying is that I see 3 numbers, and 2 of them look alike.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:44 pm

328/2 = 164. So he's played a little more than 2 years and not because of injury. But sure, you can go ahead and throw out his real rookie campaign and say he's a 700 OPS player. I'll be sitting pretty in 3 years when he's still 26 and an all star and when VMart is into his 30's and playing 1B.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:54 pm

I'm not sure what about my posts makes me seem worried about this - my catcher is only 28 and his ops has risen for 5 straight years, the other in question just saw an almost 200 point drop in his.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:56 pm

well, have fun in 3-5 years with your catcher and i'll have fun with McCann as he's hitting his prime in that stage. VMarts prime hasnt even hit McCann's potential which he's given us a taste of already.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:00 pm

You're right - I'm sure the Indians were PISSED they had VMart this year instead of McCann.

Face it, McCann is nice, but to say he's better then VMart right now is just flat out incorrect. Could he be better? Sure. Is he better? H-to-the-ELL no.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:04 pm

what did i ever say about this year and VMart? Nothing, he had a better year than McCann. If you asked the Braves to take VMart for McCann, they'd laugh in your face- as I would if you ofered me Vmart for McCann straight up. You're reaching when you bring in that the indians Were PISSED about VMart this year or whatever.

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:05 pm

I'll say this much after trading McCann......no offer really came close to what JP traded me, at least in my opinion. I got the #9 pick in the draft, Broxton, and Miguel Montero. Based on the offers I received, most don't consider him an elite catcher, or at least not one they were willing to swap any elite talent for. If I wasn't looking to build more towards the future, I probably could have got a better present value return on him. Irregardless, I think the REAL McCann is the one we saw in 2007, which is very good, but not elite. I would consider him at the very top of the second tier catchers.

And I also think he will be surpassed by my Navarro/Montero combo......or at least that's my hope. I'm sure a bunch of you would step up to take that wager....lol.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:29 pm

JP, it just seems like you have some misplaced faith in McCann - that's all. I like him, he's good, he's just not in the same league as V-Mart, Mauer, or Martin - his career minor league OPS is .796, topping out at .835. The only anomaly in his entire professional baseball career seems to be that .960. He had NEVER hit over .300 in the minors, and has never hit above .290 in any full professional season besides 2006.

JP, I like you, but the numbers are solidly against you on this one. VMart's minor league career saw him post numbers incredibly similar to what he's accomplished in the MLB (.301/.373/.473 at MLB vs. .319/.391/.488 at MILB) - and that's OPS # doesn't reflect the 5 year upswing he's on.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:54 pm

Youre talking about a prospect that was 19,20 and 21 in the minors and refuse to acknowledge his age for his levels. Ill be the one sitting pretty between us and our C's in 3-4 years, i can guarantee that.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:56 pm

I think Shawn L nailed it on the head. McCann is a very good catcher, but JP, you seem to think his 2006 is going to be the norm, or close to it. That's why you got him, because you may be the only one who believes that. Nobody is saying he isn't good or won't ontinue to be good, but so far his track record says 'Very Good', not 'Elite'.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:59 pm

RedSox wrote:I think Shawn L nailed it on the head. McCann is a very good catcher, but JP, you seem to think his 2006 is going to be the norm, or close to it. That's why you got him, because you may be the only one who believes that. Nobody is saying he isn't good or won't ontinue to be good, but so far his track record says 'Very Good', not 'Elite'.

Then i'll be the one laughing at the other 29 of you in 2 years.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 6:01 pm

Geovany Soto will continue the offensive rampage he started in AAA last year and vault up the catcher rankings.

He led the PCL in OPS last year (385 AB, 26 HR, 109 RBI, .353/.424/.652, 1.076 OPS), and didn't slow down when he got to the bigs (54 AB, .389/.433/.662). Stick that in your McCann.

Athletics · Post by **Athletics** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 6:02 pm

I wouldnt put Martin in the elite catagory either. Lets face it, hes a 1B playing C.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 6:04 pm

JP - I will bet you $50 that McCann's 2008 OPS is not above the .879 that Victor Martinez had this year.

I'll be in CT this weekend and willing to shake on it...

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 6:04 pm

Obviously Soto can't keep up that pace, and like McCann's 06, Soto's 07 was way above anything he had done previously in the minors. McCann did it in the bigs, so he's got the more impressive resume, but the same principle applies. McCann's better than he played last season, but if you expect him to put up his 06 numbers regularly, then you can expect Geovany Soto to take home the MVP by 09.