November IBC Marlins Notes

[Orioles]

11/5

The Move

After 92 wins and a discouraging 4th place finish in the AL East, the IBC O's traded in their Orange for Teal and headed down 95 to Florida starting in 2008. Though not a team built for the NL, the Marlins have a strong enough club that the team won't need a major overhaul. The move has an immediate impact in a few areas on the field:

1) Defense - fairly strong around the diamond, average range to below average rang from Hideki Matsui in LF hurts more at Dolphin Stadium than it did at Camden Yards. Expecting that any move would likely be to the AL West, the Marlins shipped NL ROY candidate James Loney to the Nationals for young hurler Dustin McGowan. In an interesting twist, Loney was subsequently traded to Pittsburgh, who then moved to Baltimore (putting Loney back where he ended the season). The Marlins GM has openly expressed regret at dealing Loney now that the team is in the NL, where Loney's strong defense would have made him the choice over David Ortiz to man 1B. For now, Florida will pray that strong defensive play by young players like Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler, Carl Crawford and Hunter Pence will make up for Papi's limited range at 1B.

2) Bench - Any AL team moving to the NL has to consider bench depth a priority. The Marlins are in decent shape with capable backups at most positions and a good mix of LH and RH power off the bench. Adding speed, a good defensive infield utility player, and/or an OF who can play all 3 positions well are priorities this offseason as the team looks to give the manager more options late in games when shuffling pitchers and putting in defensive replacements. The team would love to see prospect Justin Maxwell step up and provide some speed and defensive versatility of the bench, but will continue to pursue trade possibilities to add bench depth, as Maxwell might be a year away from contributing.

3) Pitching - Going into this offseason after yet another season of watching AL East lineups (like the Yanks, Sox and Toronto) devastate the pitching staff, the team had begun to shift its focus towards acquiring ground ball pitchers who would take advantage of the middle infield defense more than flyballers like Justin Verlander and Ben Sheets. However, with the move to Dolphin Stadium, Florida's pitchers should see a significant statistical improvement, particularly in HR rate. It will be a welcome change for the team to see it's top pitchers post ERA numbers more in line with their skill than the ugly 4+ and 5+ averages they endured in the ALE.

The Fish look to be an immediate contender in the NL East, though some shrewd recent moves by divisional foes instantly improved the overall strength of the division, and indicated that it might catch up to powerhouse divisions like the ALE and NLC sooner than most expected. The Mets decision to move Miguel Cabrera looks pretty good right now, as the trade netted them a bounty of young players (Votto, D. Young, F. Morales, C. Gomez) who could make the franchise competitive for years to come. Atlanta added LH slugger Justin Morneau, and the Phillies strengthend rotation by adding promising young hurler Tom Gorzelanny.

Florida might be the preseason favorite because of the strength of the rotation, and a lineup with no easy outs, but the Marlins still have some work to do to unseat the Braves as the class of the NLE. However, if the Fish can add a piece or two to the bench and back end of the bullpen, they'll be as complete a team as any in the NL next season.

Prospect Buzz

A couple of Marlins farmhands popped up on BP today in Kevin Goldstein's winter ball "Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack"...

OF-L Kyler Burke, Honolulu Sharks (Cubs)

Burke was acquired during the season by the Padres in the Michael Barret trade, and he may have gone from highly regarded to slight sleeper. Entering the year as the ninth-best prospect in the Padres system, the 19-year-old outfielder proved to be unprepared for a full-season league, batting just .211/.305/.268 at Low-A Fort Wayne before the deal. The Cubs dropped him back down to the Northwest League, where he started off 1-for-27 before taking off, batting .284 the rest of the way with 10 home runs in 197 at-bats. Burke went 0-for-4 for the Sharks on Saturday, ending a six-game multi-hit streak in which he went 14-for-24 with seven doubles. He's now batting .355/.412/.516 in 18 games. Burke is ready for another shot at a full-season league, and scouts have always been enamored with his tools; keep an eye on this one.

Burke was the last player thrown into the Marlins midseason Carlos Beltran blockbuster trade with the Pirates (then the Astros). Though the other players acquired in the deal (Tulowitzki, Loney, Pence) were the big story, as they each made strong cases for NL ROY, Burke quietly put up a solid second half and moved back up prospect lists after an awful start.

SS-R Scott Sizemore, Peoria Saguaros (Tigers)

Entering the year as the seventh-best prospect in the Detroit system, Sizemore was expected to have a big seasons as a polished college player in Low-A, but his .265/.376/.390 turned out to be a bit of a disappointment, although he did hit much better during the second half of the season. So far, heís looked much better in Arizona, as heís gone 20-for-48 (.417) in 11 games with 31 total bases and more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). Even more important is where Sizemore is playing in the field, shortstop. After spending the regular season exclusively as a second baseman, Sizemore has held his own on the left side of the infield, showing soft hands and solid fundamentals, though his range is a bit short. Still, a successful attempt to move towards a more difficult position on the defensive spectrum can do nothing but increase a guyís value.

A late season free agent signing in 2007, Sizemore's strong play in Arizona, and his ability to play multiple IF positions, gives the Marlins hope that he might serve in a utility role sooner rather than later. However, with Tulowitzki and Kinsler expected to be Florida's DP combo for years to come, Sizemore might be more valuable as a trading chip to strengthen the big club.

[Orioles]

11/7

1B David Ortiz underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee yesterday, and the team indicated that his offseason hitting program will not be affected by the procedure. Ortiz expects to be ready in time for the start of spring training.

[Orioles]

11/8

Marlins farmhand Justin Maxwell continues to rack up offseason accolades for his breakout season. From BA's Washington Nationals Top 10 Prospects:

9. Justin Maxwell, of Born: Nov. 5, 1983 ï B-T: R-R ï Ht: 6-5 ï Wt: 225 ï Drafted: Maryland, 2005 (4th round)

Background: After injuries plagued his college career and first full pro season in 2006, Maxwell stayed mostly healthy in 2007 and translated his immense talent into the only 25-double, 25-homer, 25-steal performance in the minors. After Potomacís season ended, he got a taste of the big leagues and his first hit was a grand slam in his third at-bat.

Strengths: The best athlete in the system, Maxwell finally started to tap into his above-average raw power in 2007, showing the ability to drive the ball out of the park to all fields. Heís an above-average runner who can get good jumps on the basepaths and track down balls in the outfield gaps.

Weaknesses: Maxwell shortened his swing considerably over the past year, but doesnít figure to hit for a high average in the majors. He needs to improve his pitch selection and lay off breaking balls in the dirt. Heís a solid-average center fielder, but his arm is fringe-average. He strengthened it throwing footballs last winter.

The Future: Maxwell garners comparisons to Mike Cameron for his speed/power mix and inability to hit for average. He could push for a job in Washingtonís outfield sometime in 2008, but would benefit from a full year at Double-A.

[Orioles]

11/14

Prospect Buzz

BaseballAmerica: 2007 Florida Marlins Top 10 Prospects

6. Chris Coghlan, 2b Born: June 18, 1985 ï B-T: L-R ï Ht: 6-1 ï Wt: 190 ï Drafted: Mississippi, 2006 (1st round supp.)

Background: Coghlan hit the radar by winning a Cape Cod League batting title (.346) the summer before he went 36th overall in the 2006 draft and signed for $950,000. While at Mississippi, he drew comparisons to Bill Mueller for his dirtbag playing style and ability to put the barrel on the ball.

Strengths: Coghlan's plate discipline is rated the best in the organization, and Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria considers him one of his favorites. After playing mostly third base in college, Coghlan adapted well to second. He has improved his pivot and footwork around the bag, and his aptitude and work habits are excellent. He has an average arm.

Weaknesses: Coghlan struggled at the plate after a second-half promotion to high Class A, but he had hernia surgery before reporting to the Arizona Fall League and showed better movement and balance after recovering. He had an extreme inside-out swing, and hitting coordinator John Mallee has taught him to stay behind the ball better and use the whole field, which also improved his gap power. He's an average runner at best, but has good instincts on the bases.

The Future: Depending on how he performs in the AFL, Coghlan could return to Jupiter or jump to Double-A. He's on track to reach the majors by 2009.

[Orioles]

11/28

Prospect Buzz

2. Geovany Soto, c/1b Born: Jan. 20, 1983 ï B-T: R-R

Background: Soto had done little to distinguish himself in the first two years after the Cubs put him on their 40-man roster, but he exploded in 2007. A career .262/.344/.371 in the minors before the season, he led the minors in batting average by a catcher (.353) and overall slugging percentage (.652), and won the Triple-A Pacific Coast League RBI crown (109) and MVP award. Chicago's minor league player of the year, he upped his production after a September callup and even homered in the National League Division Series.

Strengths: The key for Soto was losing 30 pounds after spring training started, allowing him to maintain his bat speed throughout the year and get to inside fastballs better than he had in the past. He also showed a knack for driving outside pitches the other way, and while his 2007 numbers may be a bit crazy, he has the ability to annually hit .275 with 20 homers in the majors. He provides good defense as well, with a strong arm, good receiving skills and improved agility behind the plate.

Weaknesses: Now that he has seen what it can do for him, Soto must continue to work hard to remain in top shape. He's a below-average runner though not bad for a catcher.

The Future: Soto has raised his ceiling from likely backup to potential all-star. He'll be the Cubs' regular catcher in 2008 and eventually should become their best all-around catcher since Jody Davis two decades ago.

9. Chris Parmelee, OF DOB: 2/24/88 ï B/T: L/L ï Drafted: 1st round, 2006

Year In Review: The first-round pick in 2006 showed power and little else in his full-season debut.

The Good: Parmeleeís raw power ranks with anyone's in the organization. Muscular and broad-shouldered, he puts on a show in batting practice, and occasionally in games, as more than 40 percent of his hits went for extra bases. Seen as more of a first baseman coming out of high school, Parmelee surprised many with his outfield play, showing enough in the way of his reads and routes to project as average there.

The Bad: Parmelee is a pull-conscious, all-or-nothing hitter who struck out once in every 3.3 at-bats, and he can look absolutely lost at times against southpaws. To make up for his current deficiencies, he needs to either draw more walks or shorten his swing to use all fieldsñ-or, ideally, both. Some scouts still see him as a first baseman in the end, and if that happens, his bat needs to become more than just one-dimensional.

Fun Fact: Parmelee grounded into just eight double plays in 2007, but four of those came over a four-day stretch in mid-May.

Perfect World Projection: A power-hitting outfielder who hits fifth or sixth, as opposed to third or fourth.

Timetable: As a hitter, things donít get any easier for Parmelee, as heís slated to spend 2008 in the Florida State League.

8. Scott Sizemore, 2B/SS DOB: 1/4/85 ï B/T: R/R ï Drafted: 5th round, 2006

Year In Review: The advanced college hitter got off to a surprisingly slow start in full-season debut, but came on strong at the end of the season, hitting .311/.396/.469 after the All-Star break.

The Good: Sizemoreís bat is his best tool. He works the count well, rarely strikes out, and has gap power. Defensively, heís fundamentally sound at second, turns the double play well, but he can also play shortstop in a pinch.

The Bad: Sizemore will never hit many home runs. Heís no more than an average runner and canít play on the left side every day, meaning he has to project as an everyday player on the right side.

Fun Fact: When batting first or third in the West Michigan lineup, Sizemore went 5-for-37 (.135).

Perfect World Projection: An average starter at second base, with some possibilities to develop into a utility player.

Timetable: Sizemore has been impressing scouts in the Arizona Fall League, where he has been playing exclusively at shortstop. While heís slated to begin 2008 at High-A, the Tigers hope to have him at Double-A by midseason.

1. Adam Miller, RHP DOB: 11/26/84 ï B/T: R/R ï Drafted: 1st round, 2003

Year In Review: The top prospect in the system dominated early and was in line for a big league callup before going on the shelf with separate elbow and finger issues, the second time in three years that Miller has missed significant time due to inury.

The Good: When Miller is healthy and pitching, he remains awfully impressive. His low-to-mid 90s fastball can touch 98, and he backs it up with a low 90s sinker and plus slider. All three pitches can grade out above-average at times, and his changeup is solid.

The Bad: The biggest concern for Miller at this point is his health. He should be in the big leagues by now, but he can't stay healthy enough to put the polishing touches on his game to get there. Despite a big frame and smooth mechanics, some wonder if he wouldn't be better off in the bullpen in order to preserve his availability.

Fun Fact: With the bases empty, opposing batters hit .204/.269/.279 against Miller, but with runners on hitters became instant All-Stars, tattooing him for a .345/.411/.445 mark.

Perfect World Projection: Miller has the stuff to be a number two starter, and if he's switched to relief, he could develop into a quality closer.

Timetable: Miller is making up for some lost time by pitching in the Arizona Fall League, and he's set to begin 2008 back in Triple-A. He'll remain a starter for now, and he should be in line for a big league debut at some point in the season, provided that he can stay on the mound.

5. Adam Miller, rhp, Surprise (Indians)

After battling finger and elbow woes over the course of the regular season at Triple-A Buffalo, Miller went to instructional league to face more live hitters before reporting to the AFL in mid-October. Though his velocity hadn't returned to the 93-95 mph Miller showed when he's fully healthy, his secondary pitches showed exceptional life. His 84-87 mph slider has devastating late movement and he added a two-seamer last year to combat against lefthanded hitters. His two-seam fastball has splitter-like action, diving down in the zone, producing weak contact. Miller also made strides with his changeup, which at least an average pitch right now

.

2. Gio Gonzalez, LHP DOB: 9/19/85 ï B/T: R/L ï Draft: 1st round, 2004

Year In Review: After a one-year sojourn in Philadelphia, Gonzalez returned to the team that drafted him but then dealt in the Freddy Garcia trade. He pitched much better in his second Double-A season, leading the minor leagues in strikeouts.

The Good: Gonzalez has average velocity (89-91 mph) on his fastball, but he can reach back and touch 93 at times, and it features natural lefty movement, almost looking more like a cutter on occasion. He uses it effectively to get ahead in the count and set up his curveball, which is among the best in the minors. Itís a hard-breaking power pitch that comes in fast, then falls off the table. His changeup is improving, and his control made significant strides from the previous season.

The Bad: Gonzalezí smallish frame is a concern for some, but heís proven to be highly durable so far in his career. Some wonder if heíll need to pitch backwards more in the majors, and worry that he depends too much on the curve at times. Despite the improvements, his control problems still flare up from time to time.

Fun Fact: Monsignor Paceís most famous alum is actress Catherine Keener, although political commentator Bill OíReilly taught history at the school for a brief time in the early 1970s.

Perfect World Projection: An above-average left-handed starter.

Timetable: Gonzalez will begin the year at Triple-A, and should see the big leagues at some point in 2008.

11. James Hoey, RHP DOB: 12/30/82 ï B/T: R/R ï Draft: 13th round, 2003

Year In Review: The Tommy John survivor began season with 20 straight scoreless appearances in the Eastern League, and was nearly as impressive after moving up to Triple-A. He spent the final six weeks of the year pitching out of the Oriole bullpen, where he struggled mightily.

The Good: Some argue that he, not Liz, has the best fastball in the system; Hoey's sits at 94-97 mph, and has touched triple-digits on numerous occasions. The pitch is made all the better by Hoeyís tall frame and long arms, which provide a difficult angle to opposing hitters. He goes after hitters and mixes in a decent slider.

The Bad: Hoeyís fastball doesnít have a lot of movement on it, nor does he command it especially well. His slider is good at times, but also inconsistent, leaving Hoey at times as a one-pitch pitcher, which led to his getting hammered in the big leagues.

Fun Fact: Left-handers facing Hoey in the minors this year went 11-for-83 (.133) with 33 whiffs.

Perfect World Projection: A late-inning reliever, with some possibility of growing into the closer role.

Timetable: The Orioles enter 2008 without a closer, and while Hoey has the stuff to compete for the job, heíll need to show that he can throw strikes in the spring before given the opportunity. In any case, he should spend 2008 in the Baltimore bullpen.