NCAA Tourney Discussion

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:16 pm

Pretty fired up for this year's tourney, and happy about the Big East's strong showing with 6 bids out of a 10 team league.

The committee gave my Hoyas a very generous #4 seed and I like them to face Duke in the Sweet 16 after beating Eastern Washington and Stephen F. Austin. Indeed, the Hoyas depend on key contributions from 4 talented freshmen (White, Peak, Copeland and Campbell). That would worry me more if they didn't have a tough, veteran backcourt in D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera (preseason BE POY, 16.2 PPG) and Jabril Trawick. DSR is a fearless scorer and Trawick just... fearless. Trawick sets the defensive tone with his energy and can get to the bucket and draw contact. Both guys thrive in big spots.

Because they play great D and their pace limits possessions, Georgetown is always in close games, even when they run up against better teams (3 pt. loss to Wisconsin, 5 pt. loss to Kansas). They're also a battle-tested bunch, having played one of the toughest schedules in the country. In the BE semifinal loss to Xavier (who absolutely owned the Hoyas in 2 of 3 wins this against Gtown this year. ugh), Isaac Copeland broke out and started to resemble the future-pro that scouts gushed about as he flew up top recruit lists before arriving on campus. Then there's Josh Smith, 350 pounds of occasional tubby domination in the offensive paint. He may not be able to stay on the court for long stretches, but when he gets the ball around the bucket, he's near-impossible to defend.

So why am I nervous? Davidson. Ohio U. VCU. Florida Gulf Coast.

Since the 2007 trip to the Final Four, JT3 and his Hoyas have developed a troubling habit of getting dropped early in the tourney by an upstart. In retrospect, losing in the second round to Steph Curry (who dropped 25 in the 2nd half) isn't as bad as it looked, and neither is losing in the first round to VCU, who have since made a Final 4 themselves. Still, the Ohio U and FGC losses were ugly, and embarrassing. This team isn't as good as the ones that lost those in upsets, but all the same I'd be shocked if Georgetown goes out like that again and loses to Eastern Washington. Not happening.

Can they beat Duke? No. But getting through the first (and second) game alive would be nice.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:41 pm

I think I have to take Kentucky. I wanted to take Duke, who I hate and never take, just to be different, but Calipari has giants. They just make other teams look tiny. Nobody can handle that kind of size.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Mon Mar 16, 2015 10:00 pm

I'm on the Wisconsin bandwagon. If anyone can take down UK, they can.

IU got way too generous of a seed with a 10. Honestly I'd rather see them blown out and ensure Crean get fired then them have a couple hot shooting games and he stays around for another year or two, he's awful

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:27 am

There are two types of NCAA tournaments for me:

1) one's with St Johns
2) one's without St Johns

...so maybe I'll try to care this year. At least for the first round.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:26 am

Cardinals wrote:I'm on the Wisconsin bandwagon. If anyone can take down UK, they can.

IU got way too generous of a seed with a 10. Honestly I'd rather see them blown out and ensure Crean get fired then them have a couple hot shooting games and he stays around for another year or two, he's awful

I'd agree that the leash has been pretty long for Crean at IU. This isn't college football. As long as he's a capable recruiter, a good coach shouldn't need long to turn around an elite program like Indiana. At DePaul, you give Oliver Purnell a few years. At Indiana you're either pulling in the top recruits and consistently making the second weekend of the tourney or you're not getting it done. Crean is not getting it done. IU should be competing with MSU every year for Big 10 championships, not struggling to a .500 conference record and squeaking into the tourney.

Mets wrote:There are two types of NCAA tournaments for me:

1) one's with St Johns
2) one's without St Johns

...so maybe I'll try to care this year. At least for the first round.

Before the Obekpa news I felt like the Johnnies at their best could play with anyone, and if Pointer played out of his mind they might even have given Duke all they could handle in round 2 (yeah, I know they already lost to them). Now I still like them to get by San Diego State, but I don't feel great about it. SDSU can't score though, so I still have SJU getting through and playing Duke.

Since my Big East homerism won't let me have all 6 teams get knocked out early, I've got Provy in the Sweet 16. I've always liked Ed Cooley, and I've got Albany upsetting Oklahoma, so if that plays out it's not insane to think the Friars might slip through and meet UVA or Michigan St the second weekend of the tourney.

I really wanted to pick Xavier to win a couple games, but I like BYU too much, and I think the Cougars win the play-in with Ole Miss, then topple Xavier.

Nationals · Post by **Nationals** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:45 am

Man, I'm not sure if I'm happy or depressed that Texas made it in. They have the talent to hang with the big boys but they don't seem to have that ability to close things out (see last week's Iowa State debacle). I'm liking their first round matchup against Butler but after that...it'll be rough. I'm just hoping they don't have a pants-wetting meltdown in the tournament.

Pirates · Post by **Pirates** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:41 am

Going to respectfully disagree with you about Indiana, Crean has done a great job with the program. It was only 2 years ago that they were the number 1 ranked team in the country, although they did underachieve in the tourny. You forget that they have an extremely young team this year. Blackmon and Williams are both Freshman, Williams is a sophomore and they only have 1 Senior. They are not Kentucky where they turn and burn the best freshman in the country. They are clearly lacking a presence down low, but next year will be the make or break year for sure.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 1:11 pm

I think a lot of the Crean-bashing comes from a belief that Brad Stevens is available. Having friends for the Celtics, I can promise you that the availability of Stevens will comes at an absolutely insane cost prior to the end of his contract. They adore him.

Pirates · Post by **Pirates** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 1:28 pm

I am confused why he would even be available, they hired him as a coach for the long run, not for 2 rebuilding years. But I agree that's part of the reason.

Rockies · Post by **Rockies** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:11 pm

So.. what round 1 upsets do you guys see having a good chance of happening?

Right now I'm looking at Wofford over Arkansas as a possibility.. Ohio State over VCU(homer pick, but close match up).. Indiana over Wichita St.. which I'm begging to wonder about now that ya'll are talking.. S.F. Austin over Utah.. .. Davidson over Iowa..

Thoughts? Any others? Starting to piece together a bracket for an office pool here... I have not had time to follow any college ball as closely as I would have liked this year..

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 3:36 pm

Rockies wrote:So.. what round 1 upsets do you guys see having a good chance of happening?

Right now I'm looking at Wofford over Arkansas as a possibility.. Ohio State over VCU(homer pick, but close match up).. Indiana over Wichita St.. which I'm begging to wonder about now that ya'll are talking.. S.F. Austin over Utah.. .. Davidson over Iowa..

Thoughts? Any others? Starting to piece together a bracket for an office pool here... I have not had time to follow any college ball as closely as I would have liked this year..

I'm with Nate. Keep the picks coming. I'll give you guys a cut of my winnings.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 5:50 pm

Astros wrote:Going to respectfully disagree with you about Indiana, Crean has done a great job with the program. It was only 2 years ago that they were the number 1 ranked team in the country, although they did underachieve in the tourny. You forget that they have an extremely young team this year. Blackmon and Williams are both Freshman, Williams is a sophomore and they only have 1 Senior. They are not Kentucky where they turn and burn the best freshman in the country. They are clearly lacking a presence down low, but next year will be the make or break year for sure.

Tom Crean won when he had Cody Zeller. When he hasn't had Zeller, he ain't won shit. He's a terrible in game coach. Ask yourselves this, if Dwayne Wade didn't carry him to a Final 4 in 2003, would anyone know who he was? No. If he doesn't have super elite talent he doesn't win. He knew they had no post presence and he didn't recruit any for this year, and the tallest recruit for next year is 6'7. He's in over his head, every Indiana fan saw that in the Syracuse game 2 years ago when it looked like they had no clue they'd be facing a zone defense.

Yes Z, everyone's wet dream is for Brad Stevens to come. I know the Celtics love him, but a rumor going around the Butler campus the last time Boston played the Pacers in Indy was that Stevens was unhappy and would love the Indiana job if it became available. I'm pretty sure he has an out clause in his contract for IU. If he's not coming then I want to take a chance on a guy like Archie Miller. Bob Knight was hired from Army as a young coach they took a chance on, I'd rather do that than hire another Crean/Sampson type guy that would be out of their element in Bloomington.

I have Stephen F. Austin in the Sweet 16. I alternate between Wichita State and Butler in the Elite 8. Iowa State (love watching The Mayor's teams play, probably my favorite teams to watch since the Kevin Pittsnogle WVU teams) and Wisconsin are my championship game picks, and then its a coin flip for me. As long as Kentucky loses at some point I'll be happy, it'll be unbearable around here if they go undefeated.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 6:29 pm

Rockies wrote:Wofford over Arkansas as a possibility.. Ohio State over VCU(homer pick, but close match up).. Indiana over Wichita St.. which I'm begging to wonder about now that ya'll are talking.. S.F. Austin over Utah.. .. Davidson over Iowa...

Whoa. I had those exact same upsets, plus Albany over Oklahoma.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 6:44 pm

Cardinals wrote:
Astros wrote:Going to respectfully disagree with you about Indiana, Crean has done a great job with the program. It was only 2 years ago that they were the number 1 ranked team in the country, although they did underachieve in the tourny. You forget that they have an extremely young team this year. Blackmon and Williams are both Freshman, Williams is a sophomore and they only have 1 Senior. They are not Kentucky where they turn and burn the best freshman in the country. They are clearly lacking a presence down low, but next year will be the make or break year for sure.
Tom Crean won when he had Cody Zeller. When he hasn't had Zeller, he ain't won shit. He's a terrible in game coach. Ask yourselves this, if Dwayne Wade didn't carry him to a Final 4 in 2003, would anyone know who he was? No. If he doesn't have super elite talent he doesn't win. He knew they had no post presence and he didn't recruit any for this year, and the tallest recruit for next year is 6'7. He's in over his head, every Indiana fan saw that in the Syracuse game 2 years ago when it looked like they had no clue they'd be facing a zone defense.

Yes Z, everyone's wet dream is for Brad Stevens to come. I know the Celtics love him, but a rumor going around the Butler campus the last time Boston played the Pacers in Indy was that Stevens was unhappy and would love the Indiana job if it became available. I'm pretty sure he has an out clause in his contract for IU. If he's not coming then I want to take a chance on a guy like Archie Miller. Bob Knight was hired from Army as a young coach they took a chance on, I'd rather do that than hire another Crean/Sampson type guy that would be out of their element in Bloomington.

Exactly. Zeller is the only quality big Crean has EVER recruited. Great coaches whose programs are consistently in the national title picture can coach size when it comes along (Calhoun, Coach K, Calipari et al). What big wants to play for Crean? I've always thought the coaching styles of guys like Crean, Jay Wright and Jamie Dixon were kind of gimmicky in how they de-emphasized bigs (I mean, one of Crean's greatest players and best system fits was a 6-6 PF in Lazar Hayward). I think they can win plenty of regular season games but none of those coaches will keep you in the national title picture on a consistent basis, which is where Indiana ought to be. What talented top big man recruit wants to go to Indiana, Nova or Pitt?

With all that said, I'd have to put some thought into who's out there to replace Crean, since I don't think Brad Stevens (who should be everyone's #1 choice for every open job) is going anywhere. He knew what he was getting into, and that the situation in Boston might get worse before it got better. For him it's about coaching one of the NBA's flagship franchises back to the top. I'd be shocked if he bounced right when they bottomed out, without seeing any of the rewards of the rebuilding process, and without coaching a competitive team in the NBA. Archie Miller was the first guy to pop into my head too as a replacement for Crean, but there's probably a few more worth a look.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:10 pm

For those of you curious I converted Nate Silver's win probabilities into picks against the spread. Should probably cut and paste this into Excel so you can read it, no analysis here (I've only watched 5 college basketball games all year if that), just a mathematical function, but you're all welcome if you make money

Pick Bet Size
Georgia St. Large
Northeastern Large
Cincinnati Large
UAB Large
Utah Large
Albany Large
Oklahoma St. Large
UCI Large
Wofford Medium
Harvard Medium
NC St Medium
Georgia Medium
St. Johns Medium
New Mexico Medium
Iowa Medium
UCLA Small
West Virginia Small
Maryland Small
Wichita St. Small
Northern Iowa Small

Rockies · Post by **Rockies** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:34 pm

So I think I'm somewhat happy with my bracket, as I'm approaching completion. I've got Kentucky, Virgina, Arizona, and Iowa St. in the final 4.

Kentucky over Notre Dame to get there.. Arizona over Wisconsin to get there.. Virginia over Villanova to get there.. and Iowa St. over Duke to get there..

The biggest "Cinderella Story" team I have is S.F. Austin getting to Duke before getting knocked off in the sweet 16.

I may make some adjustments here and there, but I feel pretty good with the limited knowledge of this year's teams in the tourney. I don't like teams who back in, so if a team struggled down the stretch I kind of leaned for an upset. I looked at record for top 25 teams, conference record(may not mean much), overall rank, etc. Mascots did not come into play

I did try to pick some 1st round upsets, but when it came down to it, I think the cream of the crop rises this year - no huge upsets and cinderella stories outside of the 1st round or two.

Pirates · Post by **Pirates** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:26 pm

I have Stephen F. Austin going to the Sweet 16 as well. I also have Eastern Washington beating Georgetown (Sorry DV) IU going to the Sweet 16 and Ohio State Knocking off Arizona. I figure if I have kentucky winning the whole thing I need to make some gutsy calls in order to beat the rest of the field.

Nationals · Post by **Nationals** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:40 pm

I'm right there with you, Nate. Sub Villanova for UVA in the final four and we're in agreement. I don't see UVA getting past MSU, which might be the biggest "upset" that I can find (though can we call any Izzo-coached team a Cinderella?).

Rockies · Post by **Rockies** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:55 pm

Twins wrote:I'm right there with you, Nate. Sub Villanova for UVA in the final four and we're in agreement. I don't see UVA getting past MSU, which might be the biggest "upset" that I can find (though can we call any Izzo-coached team a Cinderella?).

I'm back and forth on Villanova over Virginia.. I might be influenced by some buzz from some people I follow on twitter here, but that swayed me... Trivial, I know.. but I might change that pick in the end.

Rockies · Post by **Rockies** » Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:56 pm

Astros wrote:I have Stephen F. Austin going to the Sweet 16 as well. I also have Eastern Washington beating Georgetown (Sorry DV) IU going to the Sweet 16 and Ohio State Knocking off Arizona. I figure if I have kentucky winning the whole thing I need to make some gutsy calls in order to beat the rest of the field.

Can I just say I'm rooting for your bracket!

Go Bucks!

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:02 pm

Thanks for Iowa State, you guys.

Rockies · Post by **Rockies** » Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:29 pm

My bracket is busted.. only 1 person in the pool had UAB Nick.. everyone got fucked.

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:37 pm

I went with you and did Iowa State in the Final 4 lol.

Rockies · Post by **Rockies** » Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:56 pm

Down goes Baylor.. OUCH! I'm busted bad.

Athletics · Post by **Athletics** » Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:20 pm

Haha, both of those #3s I only had winning their first round game, I am still in good shape.