2014 - Free Agent Predictions

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:10 am

MLB Trade Rumors is running the contest again - you can submit your predictions up until 11/10 -

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014freeagentcontest

Here's mine -

1. Robinson Cano - Yankees. Does anyone believe that Omar Infante is going to be the Yankees starting 2B in 2014? They could make a deal for Kinsler, but I think the Red Sox getting rings will make the Yanks a little more desperate. - Mariners

2. Jacoby Ellsbury - Cubs. While many people have him buying the house from Twilight http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/rea ... p+Stories) I don't buy in to Ellsbury going to the Pacific Northwest when he's given the opportunity to reunite with Theo Epstien. The Cubs are entering the transition period that the Nationals were in a few years ago when they signed Jason Werth - and the Brett Jackson prospect is quickly sailing away. - Yankees

3. Shin-Soo Choo - Mets. Lot's of predictions have the Mets and Choo locked up - however I really don't believe that the Mets are going to spend the money. I actually have Choo going to the Yankees, but I changed it because I think Choo may be on the market longer than some people think, and once his price dips under $100MM it will open the door for Sandy Alderson to write the check. I also have most of the other teams filling their RF void elsewhere, although the Rockies could be interesting as well.

4. Brian McCann - Red Sox. The Rangers stink of desperation, however I think McCann goes to Boston as a more desireable place to play - and having watched him very closely (living in Atlanta and being a NL East guy) he just seems like he'd be happier in Boston than Texas. - Yankees

5. Masahiro Tanaka - Cubs. And we have a mystery team that is actually real. The Yankees and Dodgers both think they've won the bid, but when the envelopes are opened everyone is shocked. Theo is accellerating his rebuild with a young, top of the rotation type that the Cubs desperately need if they're going to be relevant.

6. Ervin Santana - Royals. His agent wants $100MM. I think he gets closer to 5/75, and I think the Royals dip into their pockets and retain him. If for no other reason, they gave up Wil Myers for Shields, who they have for one more year, and after years of misery - they think they can be the 2014 Pirates.

7. Matt Garza - Yankees. They've seen Sabathia regress and have some rotation holes. Garza has proven he can handle the AL East and is as close to a top of the rotation guy as anyone on the market.

8. Hiroki Kuroda - Yankees. Can anyone make an argument for him going elsewhere (he's not going back to Japan - that's just his leverage).

9. AJ Burnett - Pirates. I have a hard time seeing him retire, but it wouldn't surprise me if he did. The Pirates need him for another year while Tallion and Co. mature.

10. Mike Napoli - Red Sox. If it's not broke...

11. Ubaldo Jimenez - Blue Jays. They need a top-of-the rotation guy, and move to make this deal happen quickly.

12. Carlos Beltran - Cardinals. I really think he'd be a great fit in Texas...and you can bet the Yankees and Phillies will be involved, but Carlos seems like the type of guy who wants to be where he's comfortable and there's no argument that he'll have a better chance to win anywhere more than with St Louis. He stays for another year. - Yankees

13. Curtis Granderson - Rangers. I had Granderson going to the Mets for a week before I published this...and I still believe that's more realistic, but after missing out on McCann and Beltran and Nelson Cruz leaving (spoiler) I think the Rangers make the play for a LF and probably pay more than they should to improve their offense. Grandy gives the Rangers the power lefty bat they missed when Hamilton left. - Mets

14. Stephen Drew - Red Sox. I ultimately felt that Drew wasn't going to get the 5-year deal that Boras is going to ask for...mostly because the teams that really need a SS this offseason don't seem to have a ton of interest in Drew. I see the Mets passing and the Cardinals winding up with Profar in a Shelby Miller deal...Drew may not take the qualifying offer like I originally thought - but I can see him going back to Boston for 3 years, mostly be cause no one else wants him.

15. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Dodgers. Los Angeles will be in play on a lot of free agents, but they ultimately do not need a whole lot. One upgrade that makes the most sense will be moving AJ Ellis into a backup roll. Salty makes an already deep line up that much better. - Marlins

16. Scott Kazmir - Giants. Kazmir is a hard guy to place. He could slot in to a ton of rotations, but one team that needs another pitcher is the Giants. I think this would be a good fit, but it really is just a guess. - A's

17. Nelson Cruz - Phillies. When they realize they never really had a shot with Beltran the Phillies make the obvious move and sign Cruz. They need a RH power bat to split up Utley and Howard (who is no longer a clean up guy). Cruz fits the Phillies more than any other team.

18. Omar Infante - Tigers. This one makes a ton of sense. No reason to overthink it.

19. Joe Nathan - Tigers. See above.

20. Ricky Nolasco - Mariners. Seattle needs another starter, and are most likely to overpay for Nolasco. He's a great fit at Safeco. Twins

21. Jhonny Peralta - Yankees. The Mets are probably likely to be in play here - but I can see the Yankees swooping in. Peralta is a guy that gives them insurance against both Jeter and A-Rod - all in one contract. - Cardinals

22. Bartolo Colon - A's. I like Colon on the Giants - but I don't think there's any reason to think the A's won't retain him and trade Brett Anderson.

23. Bronon Arroyo - Phillies. Arroyo makes a lot of sense for a team like the Indians, but I think he's smart enough to stay in the NL and prefers the East.

24. Marlon Byrd - Rockies. Byrd is bound to see some regression...but I wager that he'll still be worth a couple of wins for whatever team gambles on him. The Rockies plan to move Cuddyer to 1B and can do better than Charlie Blackmon in RF.
Signed: Phillies

25. Grant Balfour - Yankees. Yanks never really have a shot with Nathan, as he signs quickly with Detroit. They jump on Balfour and keep David Robertson where he belongs in the 8th inning.

26. Joaquin Benoit - Tigers. He as great in Detroit and with the promise of returning back to the 8th inning, he stays there.

27. Scott Feldman - Rockies. The people in Colorado have taken notice of his 50% ground ball percentage and they need a starter.

28. Kendrys Morales - Seattle. No one wants to give up a draft pick to sign a non-elite DH.

29. Carlos Ruiz - Phillies. They looks at their options, but don't want to add a lefty to their lineup and Salty flirts but goes to the Dodgers. There's no one left and Kratz isn't the answer.

30. Josh Johnson - Mets. Mets need 1 year of a reclamation project to replace Harvey. Johnson needs a decent opportunity to rebuild his value. Citi field & New York are both good places for Johnson. Seems like a win-win. -Padres

31. Tim Hudson - Braves. Lots of teams would love to add Hudson, I'm just not convinced he really wants to leave Atlanta, and takes a 1-year deal to stay and anchor a younger staff. -Giants

32. Fernando Rodney - Angels. The baseball gods are laughing as Rodney reunites with the Angels...and most likely pitches like he did last time he was in Anahiem. Angels don't necessarily want Rodney, but he they miss out on everyone else and make a desperation move.

33. AJ Pierzynski - Rangers. The Yankees and Blue Jays both make a ton of sense for AJ - however I think the Rangers miss out on McCann and decide that the Pierzynski/Soto combo they had last year was decent enough. - Red Sox

34. Dan Haren - Indians. Cleveland is desperate to find another starter to pair with Masterson and fail to retain Kazmir. Haren is a great fit here with both veteran presence as well as ace potential.

35. Jason Vargas - Nationals. Angels would like to keep Vargas, but their balance sheet is getting tricky and the Nats add the lefty workhorse. -Royals

36. Suk-min Yoon - Mariners. If nothing else, Seattle is closest to Asia and the M's need another pen arm..with starter potential.

37. James Loney - Twins. I had Loney going back to the Rays - but the Rays M.O. is to sign someone like Mike Morse at a discount...not resign Loney. Morneau isn't going back to Minnesota when he has offers with competitive teams.

38. Phil Hughes - Padres. Have a case of the longballs? I have just the thing for that. Petco Park. Twins

39. Corey Hart - Brewers. He likes it there and the Brewers don't have any other 1B options at the moment. That could change after the Mets trade Ike Davis over in a deal for Akoi (and maybe Rickie Weeks). Mariners

40. Edward Mujica - Indians. I can see the Indians going after 2nd tier closers to replace the released Chris Perez. Mujica fits the bill. - Red Sox

41. Nate McLouth - Orioles. McLouth to the Rockies makes a lot of sense (see Bryd comment) however I think he fits the Orioles better than most teams and is worth more to them then others. - Nationals

42. Juan Uribe - White Sox. Just when White Sox fans thought they'd never have to see Uribe again, say hello to your new 3B.

43. Paul Maholm - Twins. They tell Maholm he'll be their opening day starter and he agrees to go to Minnesotta.

44. Joe Smith - Rockies. Rockies need relief and the GB rate makes him top of their list. - Angels

45. Justin Morneau - Pirates. Everyone thought he was a rental player, but the Pirates get smart, non-tender Garrett Jones and use the money to retain Morneau. - Rockies

46. Jesse Crain - Cubs. No reason why not. Cubs need a veteran reliever and Crain knows Chicago.

47. Brian Wilson - A's. Classic Billy Bean. Wilson gets to stay in California and build his value as a closer. - Dodgers

48. Jason Hammel - Twins. Twins tell Hammel he'll be their #2 starter and he agrees to go to Minnesotta. - Astros

49. Roy Halladay- Dodgers. After they put all of their eggs in the Tanaka basket, the Dodgers miss out on a lot of potential arms. With their current rotation they won't need Halladay to be any more than a #4 stater - low risk, great reward for both parties. Retire

50. Chris Young - Mariners. Did you really think they were getting Ellsbury? -Mets

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 12:30 pm

Good predictions

I don't think Beltran will return to the Cardinals. They made a qualifying offer, but Carlos has said before that he'd like to get a multi-year deal that could get him to the end of his career. It sounds like the Cardinals plan on going with Adams/Craig at 1b, Craig/Taveras in RF. I expect the Yankees and Red Sox to make a push (Red Sox could move Victorino to CF and put Beltran in RF).

I don't think the Red Sox will re-sign Drew. I think they'll be ok with Middlebrooks at 3b and Bogaerts at SS (it would be a waste to not play Bogaerts at SS imo). I hope the Cardinals make a hard push for Drew since their SS situation could be 1 of the worst in MLB.

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:37 pm

I was surprised by the qualifying offer, honestly. I don't know that Drew can do a lot better, unless he leaves for a multi-year deal. As a IBC-described horrible fan of the Red Sox, I'd prefer letting Drew go and signing a SS/3B eligible guy (Juan Uribe looks perfect) in case Xander struggles at SS or Middlebrooks struggles at 3B. Safety net type guy.

I predicted Peralta to the Cardinals. Gives them an extra boost of offense from a guy like Drew and provides a contact to get them PEDs.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:00 pm

Peralta's not a good enough defensive shortstop for a ground ball staff. Maybe on a one year deal if he's cheap, that's the only way I see it happening. I'm holding out hope for a Tulo or Profar trade

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 4:09 pm

If the Phillies offseason consists of Arroyo and Cruz I am jumping off the Ben Franklin.

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 4:46 pm

Phillies wrote:If the Phillies offseason consists of Arroyo and Cruz I am jumping off the Ben Franklin.

Well - there's always free agents 51-100 to predict.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 6:38 pm

Cardinals wrote:Peralta's not a good enough defensive shortstop for a ground ball staff. Maybe on a one year deal if he's cheap, that's the only way I see it happening. I'm holding out hope for a Tulo or Profar trade

Peralta's defense at short stop the last 3 years has been above average. I'd prefer Peralta over Drew or A. Cabrera.

Tulowitzki is the dream of course and Profar not far behind. I think I'd almost rather Peralta though since they won't have to surrender assets, but an exception can be made for either Tulo or Profar.

Athletics · Post by **Athletics** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:29 pm

Pirates wrote:
Cardinals wrote:Peralta's not a good enough defensive shortstop for a ground ball staff. Maybe on a one year deal if he's cheap, that's the only way I see it happening. I'm holding out hope for a Tulo or Profar trade
Peralta's defense at short stop the last 3 years has been above average. I'd prefer Peralta over Drew or A. Cabrera.

Tulowitzki is the dream of course and Profar not far behind. I think I'd almost rather Peralta though since they won't have to surrender assets, but an exception can be made for either Tulo or Profar.

The Profar for Taveras trade has been talked about for the last two years...though with their glut of pitching and potential to trade for Bourjos (still rumors but since the Angels have a lack of pitchers and Trout is basically at God-like status), maybe it might happen.

Still figure the Cards are going to get something good out of this whether they pay in cash or prospects.

As Giant's fan, yea, not likely to do much this offseason since they were stupid and did resign Timmy. Pretty much they only need a 3/4 type SP and maybe another bat for that OF.

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:53 pm

Angels wrote:
Pirates wrote:
Cardinals wrote:Peralta's not a good enough defensive shortstop for a ground ball staff. Maybe on a one year deal if he's cheap, that's the only way I see it happening. I'm holding out hope for a Tulo or Profar trade
Peralta's defense at short stop the last 3 years has been above average. I'd prefer Peralta over Drew or A. Cabrera.

Tulowitzki is the dream of course and Profar not far behind. I think I'd almost rather Peralta though since they won't have to surrender assets, but an exception can be made for either Tulo or Profar.
The Profar for Taveras trade has been talked about for the last two years...though with their glut of pitching and potential to trade for Bourjos (still rumors but since the Angels have a lack of pitchers and Trout is basically at God-like status), maybe it might happen.

Still figure the Cards are going to get something good out of this whether they pay in cash or prospects.

As Giant's fan, yea, not likely to do much this offseason since they were stupid and did resign Timmy. Pretty much they only need a 3/4 type SP and maybe another bat for that OF.

I feel like at this point, Tavares would be off the table for St. Louis as they need him to replace Beltran if he bolts. With Miller, Lynn and Kelly seemingly available and Texas needing a young SP, it seems like a match. But I don't know really how willing Texas is to deal Profar.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:58 pm

Taveras for Profar won't happen. It would have to be centered around Shelby Miller and maybe Matt Adams as well, since Moreland kind of isn't that great.

Trading for Bourjos would be excellent, since Jay is a killer in the outfield and doesn't bring enough with his bat to make up for it. Taveras can handle CF, but profiles better in RF.

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:59 pm

Well I'm bored so I'm gonna give this a go again. I think I got like 8 right last year and most were guys staying on their own teams (Ortiz, Kuroda, etc). Spolier alert - I'm gonna pick the Phillies a lot again.

1. Robinson Cano - Yankees
2. Jacoby Ellsbury - Phillies
3. Shin-Soo Choo - Orioles
4. Brian McCann - Yankees
5. Masahiro Tanaka - Dodgers
6. Ervin Santana - Indians
7. Matt Garza - Phillies
8. Hiroki Kuroda - Yankees
9. AJ Burnett - Pirates
10. Mike Napoli - Red Sox
11. Ubaldo Jimenez - Orioles
12. Carlos Beltran - Phillies
13. Curtis Granderson - Mets
14. Stephen Drew - Red Sox
15. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Twins
16. Scott Kazmir - Phillies
17. Nelson Cruz - Rockies
18. Omar Infante - Tigers
19. Joe Nathan - Tigers
20. Ricky Nolasco - Nationals
21. Jhonny Peralta - Mets
22. Bartolo Colon - A's
23. Bronson Arroyo - Padres
24. Marlon Byrd - Mets
25. Grant Balfour - Rays
26. Joaquin Benoit - Tigers
27. Scott Feldman - Dodgers
28. Kendrys Morales - Mariners
29. Carlos Ruiz - Phillies
30. Josh Johnson - Mariners
31. Tim Hudson - Red Sox
32. Fernando Rodney - Indians
33. AJ Pierzynski - Rangers
34. Dan Haren - Braves
35. Jason Vargas - Giants
36. Suk-min Yoon - Dodgers
37. James Loney - Pirates
38. Phil Hughes - Cubs
39. Corey Hart - Rays
40. Edward Mujica - Mets
41. Nate McLouth - Reds
42. Juan Uribe - White Sox
43. Paul Maholm - Marlins
44. Joe Smith - Phillies
45. Justin Morneau - A's
46. Jesse Crain - Phillies
47. Brian Wilson - Red Sox
48. Jason Hammel - Twins
49. Roy Halladay - Blue Jays
50. Chris Young - Twins

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:27 pm

Good list, though like others, I don't see beltran going back to St Louis, I think he ends up in Boston (and I think that ends up being a mistake).

To Pat, Drew getting a qualifying offer wasn't a surprise in the slightest. Boras is his agent, there was simply no way that Drew (meaning Boras) accepted the QO. It was a zero risk move for the Sox. I think the Sox bring back Napoli and McCann ends up in Texas.

More interesting than the FA market this offseason will be the trade rumors swirling around Price.

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:16 pm

Padres wrote:Good list, though like others, I don't see beltran going back to St Louis, I think he ends up in Boston (and I think that ends up being a mistake).

To Pat, Drew getting a qualifying offer wasn't a surprise in the slightest. Boras is his agent, there was simply no way that Drew (meaning Boras) accepted the QO. It was a zero risk move for the Sox. I think the Sox bring back Napoli and McCann ends up in Texas.

More interesting than the FA market this offseason will be the trade rumors swirling around Price.

Probably right, Bren. If it nets a pick, which it looks like it will, it's a smart move. I didn't realize there was much of a market for Drew. I still think Uribe would be a nice fit, if he's willing to be a backup.

And although I take rumors this time of year without much credibility, there's a few suggesting the Sox may move Middlebrooks to a team looking for a young 3B. That would be interesting. Also rumors they may look to move Dumpster and/or Lackey (both of whom are 35/36) and sign Hudson (who's 110?). Here's to hoping they don't sign Beltran. No reason to put him in RF. And if he moves to LF, fine, but he can't DH when he's banged up. Also really old. I don't see the upside.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:16 pm

The SS market is pretty thin this offseason, so while there might not normally be a big market for Drew, there's a bigger market this year. I've heard Middlebrooks might be on the market, but that still leaves a question of who plays 3B (or SS if they move Bogaerts to 3b, but I like him better at SS). Cecchini hit ok at AA, but he needs another season in the minors. That said, if Middlebrooks is part of a deal for Price, that's a problem I don't mind dealing with.

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:23 pm

Padres wrote:The SS market is pretty thin this offseason, so while there might not normally be a big market for Drew, there's a bigger market this year. I've heard Middlebrooks might be on the market, but that still leaves a question of who plays 3B (or SS if they move Bogaerts to 3b, but I like him better at SS). Cecchini hit ok at AA, but he needs another season in the minors. That said, if Middlebrooks is part of a deal for Price, that's a problem I don't mind dealing with.

No way TB deals Price in-division. Unfortunately so...

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:18 pm

Tigers wrote:
Padres wrote:The SS market is pretty thin this offseason, so while there might not normally be a big market for Drew, there's a bigger market this year. I've heard Middlebrooks might be on the market, but that still leaves a question of who plays 3B (or SS if they move Bogaerts to 3b, but I like him better at SS). Cecchini hit ok at AA, but he needs another season in the minors. That said, if Middlebrooks is part of a deal for Price, that's a problem I don't mind dealing with.
No way TB deals Price in-division. Unfortunately so...

'struth, I forgot about that. Though wit the depth the Sox have in young talent, maybe we'll get lucky.

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:33 pm

Looks like the first chip has fallen - 0-1 so far.

Athletics · Post by **Athletics** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:20 pm

Phillies wrote:If the Phillies offseason consists of Arroyo and Cruz I am jumping off the Ben Franklin.

So is this going to make you want to jump faster or slower?

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:23 pm

Angels wrote:
Phillies wrote:If the Phillies offseason consists of Arroyo and Cruz I am jumping off the Ben Franklin.
So is this going to make you want to jump faster or slower?

Haha

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:57 pm

Angels wrote:
Phillies wrote:If the Phillies offseason consists of Arroyo and Cruz I am jumping off the Ben Franklin.
So is this going to make you want to jump faster or slower?

If you're referring to Byrd I hate it. But I'm glad it's not Nelson Cruz for 5 years. At least when Byrd sucks we can just bench him.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 12:08 pm

Phillies wrote:
Angels wrote:
Phillies wrote:If the Phillies offseason consists of Arroyo and Cruz I am jumping off the Ben Franklin.
So is this going to make you want to jump faster or slower?
If you're referring to Byrd I hate it. But I'm glad it's not Nelson Cruz for 5 years. At least when Byrd sucks we can just bench him.

It could be worse, at least they didn't hire Bobby V as manager.

Athletics · Post by **Athletics** » Wed Nov 20, 2013 3:20 pm

Seems like you missed on Hudson, but got the Ruiz signing right...I am sure Nick is loving you right now.

Ready to kill Amaro Nick?

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:20 pm

I wanted Ruiz back and don't mind the deal. He better have 2-3 more moves I'm him.

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:00 pm

Sad to see Doc go out like that.

But I am taking credit for picking Blue Jays.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:03 pm

Had a feeling he'd retire. Lot of miles on that arm