The Rebuild

[Yankees]

We'll do this in 3 parts...

1) What was the haul
2) What was the strategy
3) Breakdown of the trades

[Yankees]

Part 1: The Haul

Starting Pitching:
Max Fried
Rafael DePaula
Michael Kickham
James McDonald
Collin McHugh
Cody Buckel
Tyler Thornburg
Clayton Blackburn
Sean Gilmartin
Sonny Gray
Nick Tropeano
Matthew Wisler
Corey Black
Pat Light
Aaron West
Seon Gi Kim
James Paxton
Ethan Martin
Matt Purke
Jake Arrieta

Quick Thoughts: There's something wrong with everyone on this list. However, there's no way this list won't yield at least 5 very good MLB starting pitchers. It's incredibly deep with a great mix of big upside, solid workhorses, and youngsters with potential.

Relief Pitchers:
Bradley Boxberger
Jeremy Horst
Matt Stites
Nick Goody
Mason Melotakis

Quick Thoughts: This group has excellent strikeout stuff from top to bottom, and I'm sure will be joined from some of the people of the above list. The bullpen is going to be an absolute strength moving forward.

Catchers:
Charles Cutler
Derek Norris
Stryker Trahan

Quick Thoughts: Cutler brings stability to a group that has some very high upside. Norris will stay behind the plate, and can rake - but there are definite holes there. Trahan has the potential to be a very high impact bat - but will he be able to stay behind the plate? This will be an area to monitor going forward.

Infield:
Ian Stewart
Casey McElroy
Joe Panik
Matt Skole
Darnell Sweeney
Alen Hanson
James Darnell
Lucas Duda
Chris Carter
Scott Sizemore
Maikel Franco
Edinson Rincon
Adeiny Hechevarria

Quick Thoughts: I really like this group. There's an answer here for every position on the field - especially if Hanson can stay at SS. The position to watch is 3b. While Skole, Franco, Rincon, and Stewart all very well may establish themselves, it's the easiest position to see fall off. When I suck this year, and look forward to next year's draft, I foresee this to be an area of focus.

Outfield:
Michael Choice
Travis Snider
David Dahl
Henry Urrutia
Avisail Garcia
Slade Heathcott
Jorge Bonifacio
Roger Kieschnick
Jake Marisnick
Mike O'Neill

Quick Thoughts: This is my offensive area of strength. If Urrutia can get his work situation settled, there is an incredible mix of ready now impact players, ready soon impact players, and high-upside impact players. It was really important for me to target CF's later on in the trade process - I absolutely believe in one of Heathcott/Marisnick.

[Yankees]

Part 2: The Strategy

In the rebuild of this team I was focused on not just getting the absolute best I could for every individual player - it was finding 50 players that I really, really liked and that filled out a potential roster.

For example, in the trade for Cain, adding Beltran meant that on top of the talent I liked and was getting for Cain, I was adding two players (Dahl/Thornburg) who I absolutely loved. That was worth it for me.

I also wanted to find a mix of players with big upsides and low risk. A great example of this was the trade for Napoli. Picking Heathcott carries little risk that he'll be an MLB player (more risk in him being a superstar), but Bonifacio is the definition of high risk/high reward.

My focus offensively was to find players who have a knack for getting on base - and keep a good split between those who will with average, those who will with power, and those who will with speed. If you look up and down my roster, that mix is pretty obvious.

For pitching, I wanted to find quality depth for rotation pitchers (I can draft my future aces when I suck), and high k rates for relievers (Boxberger, Horst, Stites, Goody, Melotakis). I have 19 starting pitchers - none of whom would fall in to the "organizational filler" category. The upside spikes with Paxton and Fried, has high upside risks in the Purke's and Depaula's, but then has a lot of guys who profile as a mid-rotation starter with a high likelihood of reaching that (McDonald, Kickham, Buckel, Thornburg, Blackburn, etc.). Good starting pitchers are a premium in baseball, and if I can get 9-10 of these guys to develop into solid starters, there will be future trade value to help fill out my roster when I'm ready to compete.

All in all, I could not be more pumped with the collection of talent filling out my roster. I will evaluate the progress of the team around mid-year, and if it makes sense to move the McDonald/Boxberger/Horst/Duda/Stewart/Snider/Kieschnick/Carter/Sizemore/Norris' of the world I will at that time.

[Yankees]

Part 3: The Trades
I've had many people praise and critique me to my face, but I've also had many I've heard of doing it behind my back. Well here you go - critique away...I love a good debate!

2/1: Nationals trades Matt Lindstrom, Michael Morse, to Tigers for Lucas Duda, Avisail 0-Garcia,
Analysis: Morse is a player that I’ve long liked – and one I picked up for Carlos Monasterios. Lindstrom had a career resurgence last year, but someone that had very little value to me in the rebuild. Lucas Duda is a fine bat without a real position, but the dude can rake and the Mets will find a place for him this year. Garcia is the pickup here. Despite reaching the MLB this year, most prospect analysts believe that he’s just starting to tap into his potential. If he can become more patient, he has the potential to be an All-Star.

2/1: Nationals trades Jason Grilli, Scott Hairston, Jeff Keppinger, Doug Fister, to Brewers for Jeremy Horst, Bradley Boxberger, Joe 11-Panik, Sean 11-Gilmartin,
Analysis: Weird 2nd trade for me to make in the rebuild. Fister continues to dominate on the mound, but get zero love from the projection people. Keppinger, Hairston, and Grilli all have value individually, but helped me get depth in value here. Horst and Boxberger will be two top-flight bullpen arms for years to come. Sean Gilmartin does not have huge upside, but he’s in an excellent organization for development and most analysts believe he’s very close to a lock to become a #4 starter. Panik was a big get for me here. Despite his numbers going back a little this year, Panik is a tough-to-find middle infield prospect who profiles to be a plus bat. As a 2b, he’s a potential All-Star.

2/2: Braves trades Sonny 11-Gray, Seon Gi 0-Kim, to Nationals for Xavier Paul, Brad Ziegler,
Analysis: Ziegler and Paul are both very solid baseball players who will help in the SIM this year – however neither really had any value to me in the rebuild. Seon Gi Kim is about as big a question mark as there is in baseball (people don’t honestly know if he has a 3rd pitch), however he had a good start coming over from Korea and shows a lot of upside. Gray is the win in this trade for me. Gray is as divisive as Kim is unknown. No one doubts the stuff, or his ability as a dominant reliever, but scouts are quite divided on him as a starter. Some think there’s no chance, some believe he still has the ability to become as high as a #2 starter. Absolutely worth the risk on both of those guys.


2/2: Nationals trades Carlos Beltran, Matt Cain, Alberto Callaspo, Chris Davis, Austin 11-Wood, to Royals for Scott Baker, Tyler Thornburg, James 10-Paxton, Matt 11-Skole, Alen 0-Hanson, Nick 11-Tropeano, David 12-Dahl,
Analysis: Well this deal was a bit controversial. Cain is the star of the show, absolutely no question here. I’ve always been told that it’s imperative to build a team up the middle of the field. That was the focus with this trade. Paxton gives me someone who has elite stuff, and profiles as a #2 starter. Tropeano features as a workhorse #4, but most believe he will definitely fit that bill. If Matt Skole stays at 3b (unlikely if he’s a long-term National), that’s a huge win for me. More likely he’s the slugging replacement for LaRoche in two years. Alen Hanson was the star of the original deal for me. If he pays the proper attention to defense, he is definitely a shortstop. If he stays in the middle of the field, he’s an All-Star. To me, Callaspo and Davis were important players, but well worth teaming with Cain to get a good return. The challenge came in that I did not think that that was enough – I really wanted Dahl and Thornburg. To get Dahl and Thornburg, Beltran was the obvious inclusion. To me, that part of the trade was a win – which equaled out the whole trade. To get Baker, which subsequently got me Marisnick and Franco, just made this talent haul well worth the cost. And Jason may have just won the World Series.

2/3: Nationals trades Hiroki Kuroda, to RedSox for Mike 10-Kickham, Rafael 12-De Paula,
Analysis: There turned out to be quite a bit of interest in Kuroda, however most backed that by offering me very little of value along with it. Kickham represents a player similar for me to Gilmartin. A mid-rotation ceiling, but one he’s most likely to reach. De Paula was the big prize for me here. He has outstanding stuff and a ceiling of a #2 starter, but he’s also a little older after being forced to remain overseas for a few years. This has stunted his development – but it has absolutely not stunted his potential.

2/3: Yankees trades Chris Carter, to Nationals for Kevin Youkilis,
Analysis: Probably should have held out here for a couple days to see Youk’s SIM, but I’ve been after Carter for some time, and he filled a power void in my stable. Carter has a good approach and mammoth raw power, but he does have holes in his swing and can be exploited. The trade to the Astros presents a terrific opportunity for him to get consistent ab’s in a hitter friendly park. I’m going to be rooting for Youk this year (which will be weird), but he was absolutely going to go.

2/3: Nationals trades R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, Pedro Ciriaco, A.J. Ellis, to Rockies for Derek Norris, Ethan 0-Martin, Matt 11-Purke, Stryker 12-Trahan,
Analysis: Absolutely loved this trade, even though it gave Jake some very talented players. Dickey and Ellis were in demand, and I like both Young and Ciriaco, but I got some great talent in important spots. Trahan gives me a C to dream on. He has an outstanding bat and people do believe he has the athleticism to develop as a C. Martin and Purke both still have elite level stuff – but they both have to be healthy to continue to develop. Norris is a former prospect who still has the patience, power, and defense to become an above average MLB catcher.

2/3: Reds trades Cody 10-Buckel, Michael Choice, Max 12-Fried, to Nationals for Brett Gardner, Boone Logan, Buzz Oliver, Craig Kimbrel,
Analysis: Kimbrel was absolutely the most difficult person for me to move. I had really planned to hang on to him when this started…however this was too much for me to pass up. Buckel was the least value I got back, and he is still a borderline top 100 prospect with pro impact potential as a starter. Michael Choice is an excellent power prospect in the OF for an organization that develops talent well. However the big get for me was Fried. He has the potential to pitch at the top of an MLB rotation as a lefty, and is a ’12 draft pick who has all the potential to move quickly. Getting an elite level arm was the most important thing in moving Kimbrel (who I got for Mike Aviles)…and mission accomplished.

2/3: RedSox trades Slade Heathcott, Jorge 9-Bonifacio, to Nationals for Mike Napoli, Tony Watson,
Analysis: March 31st, 2009 was a seminal moment for my turn into a contender when I picked up Josh Willingham and Napoli for a whole mess of crap. Napoli went on to be an elite level catcher, anchoring my team for 4 seasons in the middle of the lineup. He will always be a fan favorite at Fake Nats Park. However “degenerative hip condition” is not an ailment that will work for a rebuilding squad, so he had to go. Getting Heathcott and Bonifacio was a big win for me I think. Heatchcott has the capability to be a first division player, if not an All-Star, and Bonifacio is a lottery ticket who may just end up paying off really, really nicely. Dealing Napoli was tough, but I loved the upside.

2/4: Nationals trades Bartolo Colon, Rafael Furcal, to Rockies for Roger Kieschnick,
Analysis: Not much to see here…Kieschnick was someone Jake and I talked about in the 1st trade, and I needed to cut roster space. I do believe he is an MLB starter with a good bat…so to get him for two people who will SIM better than they perform was worth it to me – and a great get for Jake in this SIM campaign.

2/4: Phillies trades Jake 9-Marisnick, Maikel 10-Franco, to Nationals for Scott Baker, J.J. Hoover,
Analysis: Well trade seems wrong to me, as I was hoping not to get Baker in the first place…but was one I had to do. Hoover and Baker are both excellent players, but not necessarily pieces on a rebuilding team (oft-injured elder starter, reliever). Marisnick is a player whose athleticism will make him an MLB player, his development of his tools is what will determine if he’s also an All-Star. Franco is another lottery ticket who has pretty horrible athleticism, but will be a 3b, and absolutely raked the 2nd half of this year. He was a very divisive prospect who was ranked as high as Philly’s #2 (betting on the 2nd half) and out of the top 10 (illusion, no athleticism).


2/4: Giants trades Adeiny Hechevarria, Jake Arrieta, to Nationals for Travis Snider, Steven 0-Souza,
Analysis: Souza is a wildcard, but there is some upside there. Snider was tough to give up for me. The man has raked whenever he has been given consistent ab's...but there's a chance that his defense may ultimately keep him from ever getting that chance. I really wanted to find myself a Kozma-type SS. Even though I believe Hanson has an excellent shot to end up an SS, I wanted to have someone every knew would stay there. Hechevarria is definitely an MLB SS, perhaps as soon as this year. His bat needs to continue to develop, but he did have a mini-breakout in AAA - albeit in a hitter friendly league. Arrieta is a pitcher to keep my fingers crossed about. While his ERA climbed again, this former top prospects peripherals got remarkably better. He improved his control and his strikeouts, and still has the upside of a mid-rotation starter.

[Athletics]

I will be the first to comment...you were a wild card team...why not just retool rather than rebuild?

Some of those trades were easy to see you getting younger without losing much in the short term...but why gut more of the system than you had to?

How many lottery tickets do you really want when you had cash in the bank?

[Astros]

I agree with Stephen on this. I think you rushed your rebuild. IMO, you should've held on to these guys until during the season to make the moves. When I rebuilt in 2011, I made all of my trades in a 3 day span right before the deadline and now my system is loaded mostly as a result of those trades. Blow it up when demand is highest

[Yankees]

First of all, I'd have a hard time with some if they were arguing that my system is stocked right now. Also I was very open about the fact that I could absolutely have competed for the division and the WC. However Beltran is regressing, Callaspo can't find the field regularly, Furcal is clearly in a regression too, Napoli has a degenerative hip condition, Youk is coming off his worst season coming off his worst season, and Morse can't stay on the field. Cain never was a good pitcher for me, Fister could never get the SIM he should have been getting, who knows about Dickey, and my 2nd and 3rd best relievers were very, very old. My 3rd best prospect was James Darnell.

I wasn't facing a slight fall from grace - I was facing an absolute cliff after this year. I could have waited until closer to the deadline, but I would have been facing a very real scenario that I would have had a lot of my top talent in steep decline. The right move was a swift and clean rip of the band-aid.

As with all moves for prospects, you never know what the future will hold - but I'm certainly bullish on the group I acquired.

[Rockies]

The other thing to consider I waiting until the deadline means putting you another 7 or so months behind schedule in getting your team competitive again. I applaud your decision to rebuild and do so swiftly. Some may not like the deals you've made, or they may have done things differently, but so what. Look what I was able to do with a roster full of prospects in little time before last season? You and I had a 1 game playoff. I almost won 90 games and came very close to making the playoffs. I was certainly competitive. Do I have a superstar squad like I did in my past IBC tour, or like the current Yankees, Pirates, etc? No, certainly not. No, but I still feel good about what I've transformed my team into, a mix of emerging prospects and solid ball players, touched up with some worthy veterans.

I believe, if memory serves me correctly, I was your "mentor" way back when we had those things in this league as introductions for newbies so they wouldn't get eaten alive. We've discussed the philosophies of team building and making trades in this league many times. We have similar views in that you don't always have to win a trade to in the micro to win in the macro. So, while it others argue that you should have waited, or that you should have gotten more, I say so what. Semantics IMO.

Personally I agree with your cliff assessment. I saw an overall aging squad that could have hit a wall fast. Chipper Jones IMO, was kind of the guy who represented the image of your overall team best for me. Great player, when he could stay on the field. Aging or near retirement. Potential injury risk was severe. To me, when I thought IBC Nationals, that's kind of how I felt... True or not, that was my perception when glancing over your roster. So again, I applaud your decisiveness and swift action. You can let this bunch of prospects grow a little, or do what I did, parlay it into some closer talent.

Best of luck with your continued efforts Z. Cheers.

[Yankees]

That's all absolutely correct - Nate and I used to talk about this all the time back in the day. Everyone gets so concerned with winning trades that it takes the focus off of developing a team and roster. The reason my team was successful the last few years was that there were no holes on it. I was able to remain competitive despite an incredible run of injuries three years in a row.

Was there a lack of upper level talent? Yup...but that's not the type of talent I was able to acquire. I had to focus on the Morse's, Napoli's, Kimbrel's. The goal of this rebuild is to be deep enough where I don't have to do this again.

Thanks for understanding the squad, too - and appreciate the note!

[Yankees]

Added a trade in and the players to my overall team...