2013 - Free Agent Predictions

[Mets]

MLB Trade Rumors is running the contest again - you can submit your predictions up until 11/7 -

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013freeagentcontest

Here's mine -

1. Zach Greinke - Angels. Other teams would like to have him - but the Angels didn't get rid of Santana and Haren for nothing. I can see the wild card team being the Blue Jays here - but I don't see the Angels getting outbid.
Signed - Dodgers

2. Josh Hamilton - Braves. I'm not the first person to think this - even if it would mean a lefty sequence of Freeman-Hamilton-Heyward-McCann - it really isn't any different than when switch hitter Chipper Jones was in the line up against righties. Also - Chipper was making ~ $16M which combined with Bourn's salary in in 2012 ($6.85M) isn't that far off from what Hamilton will most likely get. Plus it lets the Braves move Prado to 3B - solving that hole as well. Yes, the Braves do not usually make FA splashes - but they also have 1 WS ring to show for the past 20 years of winning, so perhaps it's time to make an aggressive move now.

3. Michael Bourn - Nationals. I was impressed with how well Bryce Harper handled CF - but the Nationals need a leadoff guy and look like they're on the doorstep of the NL Pennant. Picking up Bourn makes the Nats better than 2012 = scary.

4. Anibal Sanchez - Tigers. Not the most sexy pick, but it makes a ton of sense. The Tigers are a playoff team. Sanchez did well for them since being acquired and gives teh Tigers one of the best rotations in baseball. They traded one of their top propsects to get him, so they're going to keep him.

5. BJ Upton - Phillies. The Phillies OF ended with the likes of Juan Pierre, John Mayberry and Dominic Brown. Assuming Lee and Halladay are staying put the Phillies will look to gear back up now that Howard and Utley are healthy.
Signed - Braves

6. Nick Swisher - Pirates. The Pirates are desperate for offense and feel like they can compete with at least the 2nd wild card. Now that Marte & McCutchen are up and performing - they will look to add depth to RF/1B beyond Garret Jones, Jose Tabata & Gaby Sanchez. Swisher's veteran presence and winning experience is exactly what the Bucs need if they're serious.

7. Edwin Jackson - Dodgers. Kershaw, Beckett, Lilly, Capuano, Harang & Billingsly are still there - but I'm not convinced the Dodgers are going to go with that group. I can see a few being dealt to clear room for a Jackson reunion even though I'm not convinced Jackson is really any better than most of those guys.

8. Dan Haren - Blue Jays. I originally had Haren going to Boston - but I'm just not sure I see them taking many risks after their deadline purge. The Blue Jays are probably more aggressive in attempting to roll the dice on some frontline potential.
Signed - Nationals

9. Hideki Kuroda - Yankees. Can't see any other team stepping between the two and they're both happy with a 1-year at a time deal.
Signed - Yankees

10. Kyle Lohse - Red Sox. Lohse isn't the best fit for Boston, but he'll be able to slot in with Lester and Buccholz and eat some innings in the middle of the rotation.

11. Angel Pagan - Reds. The Giants would like to keep him. The Reds find their leadoff guy after not landing Bourn and like Pagan because he can hit second when they eventually bring up Hamilton to lead off.
Signed - Giants

12. Shane Victorino - Giants. Giants lose Pagan to the Reds and swoop in on Victorino, who was close to agreeing with the Rays.
Signed - Red Sox

13. David Ortiz - Red Sox. They need each other. Papi may be annoyed with Boston lately, but the DH market isn't paying a premium and the Red Sox have too many holes to fill from the outside as it is. **update 11/5/12 - Ortiz signs with Red Sox**
Signed - Red Sox

14. Mike Napoli - Rays. I thought the Red Sox might kick the tires on Napoli as I like his fit for their park and line up - but with Lavarnway still in the picture, I can see the Rays using their Carlos Pena money on Napoli to finally address their dismal production from catcher. The Red Sox are still in play with their hole at 1B.
Signed - Red Sox

15. Adam LaRoche - Nationals. I think the Nats try to keep last years team in tact with an addition or two. LaRoche turns down a 3-year deal to stay in Washington for two.

16. Ryan Dempster - Brewers. I've seen this match in other write ups, but it makes a ton of sense. Dempster is exactly what the Brewers need behind Gallardo to eat some innings and give them consistency in the rotation.

17. Rafael Soriano - Tigers. I don't see the Tigers messing around here. Coke, Benoit and Dotel are much better options when they are not pitching the 9th and Soriano is the best relief arm on the market.

18. Melky Cabrera - Brewers. Aoki surpassed expectation and Carlos Gomez showed some pop - but the Brewers do not have much depth in the OF and Melky gets a chance to go somewhere quiet to reestablish his worth.
Signed - Blue Jays

19. Shuan Marcum - Indians. The Indians may look to rebuild by dealing Choo & Perez - but until they do Marcum would be a nice #3 behind Masterson & Ubaldo for a team that really needs pitching depth.

20. Torii Hunter - Yankees. It just makes too much sense here. Although Ichiro makes the Yankees offense a little more balanced, signing Hunter is a classic move.
Signed - Tigers

21. Russell Martin - Rangers. The Rangers let Napoli walk and steal Martin from the Yankees. If not, they are depending on Geovany Soto finding it again. The Yankees have nice catching depth and are unwilling to go 3 years on Martin.
Signed - Pirates

22. Cody Ross - Red Sox. Simply put, the Red Sox need Ross more than other teams do.

23. Marco Scutaro - Giants. Hard to find a better fit for Scutaro and visa versa.
Signed - Giants

24. Stephen Drew - Athletics. When I saw the A's trade Pennington I assumed they had some inside info on Drew resigning. I hold to that opinion.

25. Joe Saunders - Orioles. No team believes Saunders is as good as he pitched for the O's in the playoffs...except the O's.

26. Ryan Ludwick - Astros. There's always a guy who has a good season that GM's don't respect. Ludwick signs with the Astros in January and most teams have filled their holes.
Signed - Reds

27. Kevin Youklis - Athletics. Billy Bean. Kevin Youklis. Done.

28. Francisco Liriano - Padres. Want to rebuild your value? Do it in San Diego, even with the fences moving in. Top-10 pitcher in the NL next year.

29. Carlos Villanueva - Royals. If for no other reason - Villanueva has been on numerous SIM Royals teams in my leagues over the years. Truely, he wants to start and the Royals can make him their #2.

30. AJ Pierzynski - White Sox. Tyler Flowers isn't fooling anyone. The White Sox see the AL Central as wide open - so they're not taking chances on an underperforming rookie.

31. Joe Blanton - Twins. So many people have guessed this match that I cannot believe it hasn't happened already.
Signed - Angels

32. Brandon McCarthy - Orioles. The O's are going to offer contracts to every decent starting pitcher on the open market until one signs. McCarthy turns out to be a solid #2 for them over the next several seasons.
Signed - Diamondbacks

33. Jason Grilli - Red Sox. Start plugging holes with solid veterans.
Signed - Pirates

34. Kyuji Fujikawa - Orioles. They showed that they are not afriad of the far east in the past and it's worked out for them on more than one occassion.
Signed - Cubs

35. Koji Uehara - Angels. Angels boost their pen, adding depth to Frieri, Downs & Walden.
Signed - Rangers

36. Ryan Madson - Yankees. We know the Yankees are going to add insurance against Rivera and it's not going to be Soriano. Soria has been linked but I think he stays in KC. Madson is a good fit here.
Signed - Angels

37. Joakim Soria - Royals. There will be a lot of interest in Soria, but I believe he stays where he's comfortable (at least until the trade deadline).
Signed - Rangers

38. Joel Peralta - Rays. I was thinking he might be a good fit for the Brewers but have read that he really wants to stay in Tampa and the Rays are always looking for pen help.
Signed - Rays

39. Mariano Rivera - Yankees. He's coming back and not going anwhere else.
Signed - Yankees

40. Ichiro Suzuki - Rangers. This would be a great move by Texas, adding to the OF mix of Leonys Martin, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy & Craig Gentry - the Rangers will be able to mix it up a little and have a flexible lineup from day to day.

41. Jeff Keppinger - Rays. I think they keep him in Tampa. He was a great fit and adds versatility.
Signed - White Sox

42. Mike Adams - White Sox. Sox essentially trade Brett Myers for Mike Adams, who returns to dominant 8th inning guy.

43. Andy Pettitte - Yankees. No comment, but he's coming back.
Signed - Yankees

44. Jose Valverde - Pirates. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pirates move Hanrahan to help their depth and sign Valverde to close out games in Pittsburgh. Otherwise we could see him signed as a K-Rod type who doesn't get a closing gig on the open market.

45. Jonathan Broxton - Reds. I see no reason for him to leave. He did well and can close games while the Reds play with the 'Chapman to the rotation' project.
Signed - Reds

46. Scott Baker - Blue Jays. I see Baker as a decent fit for the Jays if he can settle in as a 4th starter and eat some innings.
Signed - Cubs

47. Sean Burnett - Rangers. Burnett replaces Mike Adams in the Texas pen.
Signed - Angels

48. Jeremy Guthrie - Royals. The Royals won't find any elite arms to sign in Kansas City at the moment, but they should be able to secure a few solid ones.
Signed - Royals

49. Eric Chavez - Yankees. Welcome to your career as A-Rods personal contingency.
Signed - Diamondbacks

50. Jeremy Affedlt - Red Sox. I see this as a solid fit and would really add some depth to the Sox' pen.
Signed - Giants

[Phillies]

1. Zach Greinke - Angels
2. Josh Hamilton - I dont have a clue. Orioles?
3. Michael Bourn - Nationals
4. Anibal Sanchez - Tigers
5. BJ Upton - Phillies
6. Nick Swisher - Rangers
7. Edwin Jackson - Astros
8. Dan Haren - Dodgers
9. Hideki Kuroda - Yankees
10. Kyle Lohse - Pirates
11. Angel Pagan - Giants
12. Shane Victorino - Mets
13. David Ortiz - Red Sox
14. Mike Napoli - Astros
15. Adam LaRoche - Nationals
16. Ryan Dempster - Cubs
17. Rafael Soriano - Brewers
18. Melky Cabrera - White Sox
19. Shuan Marcum - Rockies
20. Torii Hunter - Red Sox
21. Russell Martin - Yankees
22. Cody Ross - Braves
23. Marco Scutaro - Giants
24. Stephen Drew - Athletics
25. Joe Saunders - Orioles
26. Ryan Ludwick - Mets
27. Kevin Youklis - Phillies
28. Francisco Liriano - Royals
29. Carlos Villanueva - Blue Jays
30. AJ Pierzynski - White Sox
31. Joe Blanton - Twins
32. Brandon McCarthy - Angels
33. Jason Grilli - Yankees
34. Kyuji Fujikawa - Orioles
35. Koji Uehara - Orioles
36. Ryan Madson - Reds
37. Joakim Soria - Phillies
38. Joel Peralta - Rays
39. Miriano Rivera - Yankees
40. Ichiro Suzuki - Yankees
41. Jeff Keppinger - Phillies
42. Mike Adams - White Sox
43. Andy Pettitte - Yankees
44. Jose Valverde - Marlins
45. Jonathan Broxton - Marlins
46. Scott Baker - Twins
47. Sean Burnett - Nationals
48. Jeremy Guthrie - Royals
49. Eric Chavez - Yankees
50. Jeremy Affedlt - Phillies

Yes, I know I picked the Phillies a lot.

[Mets]

12. Shane Victorino - Mets ??? espeically from a Phillies fan.

[Phillies]

I'm not doing very well. The only correct choices are players re-signing with their previous teams.

[Athletics]

What percentage of correct picks were you guys hoping for? Because right now you look like you are only on pace to get about a fourth of them right.

[Phillies]

The winner gets a player of their choice. I'll take Wright.