Alright, done with the National League, onto the Grown Up League, where the guys who can hit get to play instead of the guys who can't. We'll start with the beast, and in honor of the new league each team gets a theme song (and yes it's leading somewhere). There's really only one appropriate song for the league's toughest division, Welcome to the Jungle. Without further ado...
Baltimore
Strengths: Good young pitching at the top of the rotation is hard to find, but Kazmir and Slowey are nice pieces (though it'd be great to see Kaz touch the 7th inning once in a while). There are some interesting bounceback candidates on the roster like Daric Barton, Jason Isringhausen, Ian Kennedy, Andy Marte, and Aaron Rowand. Kelly Shoppach is a good young catcher.
Weaknesses: OK, I understand the need for pitching and all that, but just when the toughest team in your division is finally aging on what was once an untouchable offensive lineup you're going to trade him a 29 year old 50 home run man for his 4th starter? In a fantasy baseball sense I understand the numbers adding up decently, but from a tactical competing in the division sense, not so much. Last year's 100 win team has been drastically disassembled, and I understand the logic in rebuilding because the team overachieved so dramatically, but it'll show up painfully in this years standings, where some of my Zips runs have shown the O's becoming the first(?) team in IBC history to go from winning 100 to losing 100.
Final Word: I'm worried as I look up and down the roster that I see a lot of very good and not enough great, and great is what it takes to compete in the Beast. Good news is that if Jason gets chewed up badly enough he wins the Stephen Strasburg lottery, and suddenly looks like he has one of the top young rotations in the IBC.
Boston
Strengths: Brandon Webb, Mark Buehrle and Zach Grienke are a terrific trio at the top of the rotation. Jeremy Guthrie has lost some of his luster, but he's as solid a #4 as most teams can throw out. Bren's Red Sox have to be the only IBC team that throws out it's real life counterpart's infield every day, but with Lowell/Lowrie/Pedroia/Youkilis around the horn who can blame him (I certainly like that better than the Jack Hannahan/Bobby Crosby/Mark Ellis/Daric Barton crap the A's ran out last year, only Ellis could play and he was doing it with a torn labrum). Between Carlos Quentin, Luke Scott, Elijah Dukes Travis Buck, and Brian Giles there is plenty of corner left handed pop to go around.
Weaknesses: Bren is notorious for not believing in big name bullpens, and maybe he's right, but I'm not so sure I feel going for Hideki Okajima or Manny Delcarmen at closer. We're also looking at an offensive black hole in center field if Denard Span and his merely AV defensive ranking are there, or a defensive black hole with Dukes and his PR one. It'll also be interesting to see how the Angel Salome/Carlos Santana one year two early show goes behind the plate.
Final Word: This team might win the AL West, but in this division they are fighting for .500
New York
Strengths: You know what's funny? JB was actually emailing me asking for how my sims went. The guy with A-Rod and Pujols shouldn't have to ask. It's hard to imagine this team not having the largest Pythag split in the league (I might have just made that term up, but what I mean is that they led the MLB in both RS and RA).
Weaknesses: What do you want me to say? I guess the rotation isn't exactly ace-filled anymore, and a more realistic projection for Joba as a starter has to be a downer. Farm system graduations should solve the aging/depth problem next year, but a couple injuries this year could hurt a little.
Final Word: Analyzing this team makes me too depressed to come up with a good one.
Tampa Bay
Strengths: If we go with Zips Pat sure won the Giambi trade. Tampa is tied with Detroit for the fewest projected players in Zips (29), which is the good news, and the better news is that a number of them don't suck. Trevor Cahill got a pretty useful projection, as did Andrew Miller and of course David Price.
Weaknesses: This is still strictly a prospect team, probably another 2 years away from seriously competing in this division. The only hitter projected to an .800 OPS is Micah Hoffpair, so when it comes to the offense, yikes!
Final Word: 2012 here we come.
Toronto
Strengths: Justin Duchsherer proved himself a worthy #3 behind Santana and Smoltz, who Pat is lucky to get 1 more year out of. Behind him are Andy Sonnanstine and Koji Uehara, while Ian Snell, Tim Wakefield, and Paul Byrd can't even get a sniff. Offensively this is a pretty solid 900 run bunch, and we can high scoring games when Cust, Pena, Granderson, et al start to let loose.
Weaknesses: We already knew Smoltz was out until May, but now Johan Santana has elbow problems and is "pretty sure" he'll be ready for Opening Day while the Duke is taking a week to rest his sore elbow is doubtful for Opening Day. If those three pitchers miss extended time it's a big problem. If there's another complaint to be made it's that the lineup is a touch lefty heavy, Dennys Reyes is gonna mow that bunch down.
Final Word: The clear wild card favorite, but questions with the pitching staff will probably doom the team from having a chance at JB.
Last Word on the Division: My sims have had both of the tough divisions losing a little bit of luster with one front runner pulling away, in this case it's probably another year of Manning style chokes in the playoffs for JB.
Jake's 2009 Arbitrary Spring Training Preview - AL East
Moderator: Giants
