Jake's 2009 Arbitrary Spring Training Preview - NL Central

[Giants]

Let's pretend for a moment that we'll have a season next year and this DMB mess will get worked out and continue on with the previews.

Chicago

Strengths: The anti-prospect team is taking some shape this year, with a decent and fairly young rotation anchored by Carlos Zambrano, John Danks, Kyle Lohse and Joe Blanton, with some combination of Cha Seung Baek, Zach Miner, and Odalis Perez fighting for the last few spots. There are some decent young bats in the lineup as well, with Jacoby Ellsbury as the sparkplug and some decent bats behind him.

Weaknesses: There is a gaping hole in the #4 spot in the lineup, this team really needs a masher to carry the offense. Guys like Mike Napoli, Josh Willingham, and Jorge Cantu are nice bats to have in the lineup, but a heart of the order of those three leaves something to be desired in the brutal NL Central. The bullpen is also a question mark. Marmol is nice, but I'm not a fan of Brandon Lyon as the closer and the bullpen lacks a dominating lefty.

Final Word: 2009 should look a lot like 2008 for the Cubs in terms of where they fit in this division, though I doubt we'll see another 94 loss season from a team that's pitching staff shouldn't suck anywhere near as badly as it did last year.

Cincinnati

Strengths: The lineup is a major strength for the defending NLC champs, especially the cornerstone left side of the infield of Hanley Ramirez and David Wright along with Vlad Guerrero in right and Ichiro in center. It will be interesting to see how much down years hurt Paul Konerko and Nick Swisher, which will be a major factor in determining how close to last year's ridiculous win total Nate gets his team. The rotation of Roy Halladay, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Hiroki Kuroda, and the surprsing Hong-Chih Kuo should be fine.

Weaknesses: Depth and bullpen. If Posada gets hurt (and let's face it he's a 40 year old catcher) I'm doubting we can count on Miguel Olivo for the same kind of production he showed last year. Other uninspiring bench options like Adam Rosales, James Skelton, and Jeremy Slayden are red flags for a team that was unusually healthy all the way through last year. Speaking of red flags, after Angels basically chewed up K-Rod and spit him out last year it's going to be interesting to see how he holds up physically this year. Behind him is a declining Scot Shields, the venerable Chad Bradford (don't let him face any lefties), and Doug Mientkiewicz's erstwhile cousin Lee Gronkwiecz. Anyone else underwhelmed by that bunch?

Last Word: If everyone stays healthy the Reds should be the favorite for the 2009 NL pennant. Anyone else doubt that will happen two years in a row?

Houston

Strengths: I know Shawn was trying to compete this year, but it's hard to say if that will happen. Chad Billingsley is not someone I'm personally a fan of, but I suppose he's as good a choice as any to build a rotation around. There is the makings of a nice young rotation with Billingsley, Clay Buchholz, James McDonald, and Luke Hochevar, but TINSTAAP is instructive with those last three. Dioner Navarro and Taylor Teagarden provide strong depth at catcher, a rare luxury in this league.

Weaknesses: The lineup is just crying for a big bat, as Alex Rios has not developed into the consistent cleanup threat he showed the potential to be. Rios, Bobby Abreu, and Conor Jackson need help to drive in runs, and Kevin Kouzmanoff and Tony Abreu are pretty underwhelming answers to that call. Shawn has seemed to have a pretty extraordinary run of bad luck with prospects falling off the track, between Buccholz, Abreu, Chin-Lung Hu, Brent Lillibridge, and Fauti going down to TJ and falling behind the MAC.

Final Word: This doesn't look like the year for Houston, but this team looks no more impressive than some of Ken's silly Astros squads from a few years back.

Milwaukee

Strengths: Welcome back Kegan, it would have been nice if we'd made this move before Degen sold off all you're useful MLB parts. The stripped down Brewers have a couple of nice pieces in Volstad, McLouth, and Gonzalez, along with promising spects like Brandon Wood, Mat Gamel, and Matt Dominguez. Gonzalez represents the one thing the previous teams behind Cincinnati lack, which is a true cleanup hitter. Nothing is especially promising for this season, but there are raw materials for this team to work with in terms of trades for future parts.

Weaknesses: After Volstad and Paul Maholm the rotation looks like this: a fading Aaron Harang, Scott Baker, Kevin Correia/Matt Albers/Matt Maloney. In some divisions you could get away with that, but not gonna cut it in this beast of a division. In the bullpen we're looking at Luis Ayala, Will Ohman, and a Durbin or two. Not exactly shut down.

Final Word: There's no reason to think they can compete yet, but on the other hand the worse they perform the closer this team gets to Stephen Strasburg.

Pittsburgh

Strengths: I told JP he wasn't going to be able to hold on to prospect depth for a full year and I was right. The Pirates are gunning for a championship with year with a rotation of Lincecum, CC, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, and John Lackey. That's pretty OK. Manny Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, and Ryan Spilborghs anchor a lineup that should be an improvement on last season's showing that was second lowest in the National League.

Weaknesses: The bullpen depth is decent, but I'm not ready to buy Jonathan Broxton as a topflight closer. The other worry is that all of the big bats in the lineup are right-handed, no Lyle Overbay is not a big bat, and the offensive firepower doesn't really compare with Cincinnati. Without a true center fielder defense may also be a question mark (Spilborghs has been nearly -12 in his UZR/150 over the last three years, Jermaine Dye has been over -20 in right, and Manny is Manny). While the rotation is awesome, JP doesn't have a ground ball oriented guy in the bunch, so the outfield defense is likely to be an issue in a pennant race.

Final Word: JP has clearly taken his shot for this year, with the 5 ace rotation, all the vets, and virtually no prospect depth (who in that system does anyone really want to trade for besides Dexter Fowler?), the window in Pittsburgh is open now.

St. Louis

Strengths: The defending NL Champ is gearing up to take another shot at making the NL pennant their own personal property. While the names aren't as sexy as the Pirates or the Reds, Aaron's rotation is still as deep as anyone's, anchored by Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, and 2008 breakouts Todd Wellemeyer and John Lannan, with Brett Anderson on the way. The lineup features one of the most powerful outfields in the game with Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, and Nick Markakis going left to right with Vernon Wells in reserve. A healthy Rafael Furcal anchors the infield. The bullpen should be strong, anchored by Matt Capps, Chris Perez, and Scott Downs, and then filled out by guys like Anthony Reyes, Jon Garland, Scott Olsen Brad Thompson, and whoever else loses the 5th starter battle. A bench of Vernon Wells, Billy Butler, and Chase Headley provides some nice pop.

Weaknesses: The rest of the infield could use some work, Rich Aurilia is probably getting way too many at bats, and I'm not sure what contender could possibly think starting Greg Norton at 1B is a good idea. If no one signs Ray Durham than second base becomes a gaping hole as well (Ryan Freel has four forks sticking out of his back). The pen could use another lefty, but that is a fairly minor quibble.

Final Word: St. Louis would be good enough to win most divisions in the IBC, but this year they look to be pretty solidly passed by the Reds and Pirates. This team is, however, built better win individual games than the Reds, and is probably scarier in a short series.

Last Word on the Division

The NL Central vs. AL East contest for dominance should be back in full swing this year, and its about time. Pittsburgh has made great strides, but when the titans collide it's the littlest things that end up making the difference and I think the little things (particularly outfield defense) keep the balance of power in the division in Cincinnati. That being said, who knows how many iterations of the Pirates we'll see between now and the All-Star Break that could totally change any of these projections.

[Astros]

Markakis isn't on the team anymore unfortunatly. So the starting OF is Burrell/Wells/Hamilton. Norton's half of a platoon with Billy Butler, who has hit .340 against lefties the last 2 years

[Giants]

In my arbitrary mind he's still there, I think I'm just going to add a random good player back to a random team for the rest of these.

[BlueJays]

Bullpen a weakness? You must have overlooked newcomers such as Josh Roenicke, Robert Manuel, Ramon Ramirez, and possibly even Pedro Viola and Fu Te Ni as an outside shot. I'm confident my bullpen will be just fine, and if not, I'm confident I can pull another few arms off the scrap heap, ala 2008. Depth, is always an issue. Particularly at catcher, I agree. Trying to work on that, but its difficult.

But I'm pretty confident heading into 2009 and see no reason to make too many alterations to a 114 win team.

[Giants]

The depth of your bullpen is fine, I'm thinking more about the top tier if K-Rod breaks down. Everyone but JB has to have a weakness...

[BlueJays]

The top tier? Don't worry, I have flexability. And soon enough roenicke will be a top pen arm

Viola too, he's reportedly hitting 98 from the left side this spring.

And even the evil empire has weaknesses.

Thanks for doing this Jake, appreciate the effort, fun reading.

[Guardians]

I tend to disagree about needing a big bat. While a huge run producer is always nice, I was still able to rank 6th in the NL in runs scored. Unfortunately, 3 of the teams that scored more runs than I did are in the NL central. lol

I have no idea what the season holds for Houston, but my gut tells me we will be back in trading mode fairly early in an attempt to gear up for the 2010 season.

[Cardinals]

I tend to disagree about needing a big bat. While a huge run producer is always nice, I was still able to rank 6th in the NL in runs scored. Unfortunately, 3 of the teams that scored more runs than I did are in the NL central. lol

I have no idea what the season holds for Houston, but my gut tells me we will be back in trading mode fairly early in an attempt to gear up for the 2010 season.

Travis Snider soon enough.

[Marlins]

Jake, you keep giving my guys to other teams! First Bedard, now Markakis? Sheesh.

[Brewers]

Just reading this preview gave me the shudders. Looking forward to playing the role of spoiler.. hopefully!