It's been quite the year in 2008 for Pittsburgh. Dreams of making the playoffs were quickly dashed with some April injuries and the talent just wasn't there for me to feasibly defeat Aaron or Nate, so we went into heavy rebuilding mode. At the end of the year, holding the #1, #4 picks as well as high level prospects such as Hanson, Moustakas and Revere, I was confident that I held the leagues top farm system. That all changed when I decided to add Sabathia, Haren, Ramirez, Dye, Lee, Zumaya, Dotel et al. Bringing in all that talent came with a price and the farm isn't what it was, but it's still very good in my opinion, with players poised for breakout years next year. The first two are slam dunk talents, with Elbert being very good.
#1: Dexter Fowler, CF
Year in Review: I traded for Fowler early in the year after he had a hot start and I figured he was finally healthy and was going to put everything together. I was correct, and he turned into a top prospect. Ranked high on many lists, and a 5 Star prospect according to KG and Baseball Prospectus. Fowler hit .335/.431/.515, good for a .946 OPS. 31 2B, 9 HR and 9 triples to boot and 20 SB.
The Good: He can do everything well. Obviously, he can hit. He drives the ball to all directions of the field, makes consistent contact (65 BB/89 SO), he's a plus-plus runner and he has projection for more power to develop. He's an outstanding defender and has a pretty good arm. He turned heads the the futures game with how easily he strides and glides across the field. Additionally, he's a bright kid with great makeup.
The Bad:Not too much. There's some questions on what his power ceiling will be. He could be well suited refining his baserunning skills. His jumps could stand to be improved.
Perfect World Projection: All Stat caliber CF with plenty of speed and power.
Glass Half Empty: A CF in the Devon White type mold and not a true superstar.
Path to the Bigs: Whenever Colorado wants to put him there for good now that Taveras is out of the picture.
Timetable: The Rockies would prefer to send him to AAA, but they aren't going to rule anything out.
#2: Brett Wallace, 3B
Year in Review: Back when I had the #1 and #4 picks, I was secretly planning on taking Wallace at #4, which may have been seen as an overdraft to some. He tore up ASU and the Cardinals, of course my favorite team, drafted him. He mashed everywhere he hit this year: ASU, A, AA and the AFL. .He hit 327/.418/.490, 5 HR 153 AB in A, .367/.456/.653 3 HR 49 AB in AA, good for a .337/.427/.530 average between A/AA this year, as well as his .309/.381/.585 with 6 HR in 94 AB in the AFL. Once I had projected the top 9 to go and Wallace wasn't among it, I did what I had to to get the #10 pick and get my future 3B.
The Good: He can hit, hit, hit and hit some more. Pretty good, but not devastating, power. Great hand-eye coordination. For a fatass, he can handle the hot corner reasonably well. He's not here to sell jeans, but he can make the plays he has to.
The Bad: Defense, possibly. Difficult time on bunts and slow grounders. He's not the best baserunner in the world thanks to his thick build.
Perfect World Projection: Hitting before or after Pujols in the Cardinals lineup, among the league leaders in average and OBP, popping 20-25 HR. Basically, an all-star 3B.
Glass Half Empty: Glove just doesn't work out at 3B, the Cardinals have to trade him, and he moves to 1B for another organization. That said, the bat will play anywhere.
Path to the bigs: Pujols isn't going anywhere, so he'll need to stick at 3rd to get to the MLB soon. Glaus has a year left remaining on his contract, so should be stay at 3B, he'll be the Cardinals 3B for 2010, or whenever Glaus inevitably hits the DL this year.
Timetable: Just depends on the Cardinals corner infields health, otherwise he should spend 2009 ruining AA pitchers stats.
#3: Scott Elbert, LHP
Year in Review: Coming off shoulder surgery, Elbert dominated in his relief role in AA. 2.40 ERA, 41.1 IP, 25 games, 1 start, 46 SO/20 BB which is good for a 10.02 K/9 ratio. He held opposing hitters to an average to the tune of .157 with a 1.02 WHIP.
The Good: He pitched this year and avoided injury problems. He fared well in a couple of his brief appearances for the Dodgers, and got shelled in others. Obviously, he dominated AA. His fastball was 89-92, which is a little down from what it was before he got injured, but the Dodgers are confident that he'll regain some velocity as his arm strength increases. The plus-plus curveball was still there as well.
The Bad: He didn't throw his changeup nearly at all in 2008, and his mechanics are still messy. A move to the pen might be permanent but the Dodgers deny it. He struggled with control at times, which has been a knock on him.
Perfect World Projection: Pretty tough to say. Some still think he can start, but others think he's going to be a fixture in the bullpen. Should the velocity return and he can consistently throw strikes, he can be a closer in the Billy Wagner mold. As a starter, who knows at this point. The jury there is out until he does it this year in the minors.
Glass Half Empty: He's an injury risk, the control never comes, and he's a back end starter or an innings eater mopup man, or a mediocre Loogy. Something like that.
Path to the Bigs: If he's ready and puts on a clinic in Spring Training, there's no reason to think he won't be in the Dodgers bullpen to start the year. As a starter, he'd require some seasoning and stamina building in the minors I'd have to think.
Timetable: Should be given a chance to earn a job in the Spring.
#4: Austin Gallagher, 3B
Year in Review: I signed Gallagher on March 7, so I didn't technically draft him but I might as well have. I liked the scouting reports that I had read on them, and it paid off nicely. Right out of high school and 19 for the season, Gallagher was placed in Hi A and hit .293/.349/.456, good for an 805 OPS to go along with 33 2B and 5 HR. He was the second youngest hitter in the Cal League- by five months.
The Good: He was solid across the board. He hit for average, drove the ball as evidenced by 33 doubles, and did it all as a 19 year old in HiA for his full-season debut. He has above average raw power, but that has yet to surface in games. At 6'5 and only 210, there's room for him to build on the frame and that power to show up.
The Bad: His power wasn't that impressive given he played in the Cal League, even if his ISO power did improve from the previous year. He had no standout tool, but was merely solid across the board. He's a below average runner and is a little stiff. He may eventually have to move off of 3B, but that remains to be seen.
Path to the Bigs: Probably depends on his defense and how well he handles his next assignment. If he's relegated to 1B, he'll be blocked by Loney, so he'd be well served if he can pan out at 3B.
Timetable: I'll assume that the Dodgers will send him off to AA next year, but I'm not sure. Repeating HiA for a little might not be the worst thing in the world at age 20, but I do anticipate Gallagher reaching AA at some point next year. How he handles that will determine how accelerated his path is.
#5: Kevin Ahrens, 3B
Year in Review: Straight out of high school and ripe with Chipper Jones comps, Ahrens was placed into the not-so-hitter-friendly MWL. He held his own for awhile before going into a massive slump at the end of the year which dropped his yearly line to .259/.329/.367 with 5 HR.
The Good: While the results may not say it, Ahrens swing is very nice and smooth from both sides of the plate. He's patient and wise enough to know when to wait for his pitch. His natural side is from the right side, though his left side hitting improved tremendously and actually fared better from that side of the plate in 08. He projects to hit for a decent average and have 20+ HR potential down the road. He has a plus-plus arm, soft hands and solid range, so the converted SS should stick and be a defensive asset at 3B.
The Bad: His stats. He merely didn't do well this year, and some scouts and observers questioned his bat speed. He also is too patient at times, taking first pitch strikes which hurt him getting behind in counts. He's a below average runner.
Path to the Bigs: He's at the top of the organizations 3B depth chart still, but will have to begin producing next year. His offensive and defensive potential are still very high.
Timetable: Ahrens figures to spend 2009 in HiA, which could be his breakout season as a prospect.
#6: Connor Graham, RHP
Year in Review: One of my late 2007 draftees, I've had Graham from the get-go. Drafted in the 5th round out of Miami Ohio by the Rockies, Graham pitched in Low-A, where he dominated. He posted a 2.26 ERA, striking out 138 in 147.1 IP, all the while holding opposing hitters to a .189 BAA. His GO/AO was also a nice 1.50. He finished Top 5 in the Sally League in ERA, IP and SO.
The Good: His size allows him to be a presence on the mound at 6'6 235. His fastball sits 92-95 and touches 97. He also has a plus slider to go along with two changeups- a hard one and a soft one, the former which has a splitter type action to it.
The Bad: His command. He struggles to find a consistent release point which hinders his ability to throw strikes on a consistent basis. He walked 83 batters this year, which took his WHIP to 1.24, despite his .189 BAA. He loses some movement on his pitches because he tends to overthrow.
Perfect World Projection: Graham harnesses his control well enough to be a solid big league starting pitcher, likely slotting in the middle of a rotation.
Glass Half Empty: He never figures out his command and is relegated to a relief role, where some believe his stuff plays better anyway.
Path to the Bigs: The Rockies can always use pitching, but it's all moot until he gets his control down.
Timetable: He'll be 23 and turning 24 in late December this year, so Graham should be headed to at least high A, if not AA to start the year. If he gains his control and dominates hitters like he did this year in A, it's feasible he'll get a cup of coffee this year for the Rockies.
#7: Daniel Moskos, LHP
Year in Review: Moskos, the Pirates first round pick from 2007, struggled mightily. He posted a 5.95 ERA in 110 IP, 78 SO, 43 BB and a .289 BAA. His GO/AO of 1.89 was his only very good number on the season. The lousy numbers were attributed to poor conditioning, which is definitely evidenced by his 8+ ERA post all star break.
The Good: There wasn't much. The GO/AO. He did hold lefties to a .224 BAA on the year, which does bode well for the future. When Pittsburgh decided to move him to a reliever late in the year when it was obvious he was out of gas, he succeeded, going 20.2 IP, striking out 20 and had a 2.61 ERA.
The Bad: To go along with the bad numbers, some scouts say that the dominating stuff he exhibited at Clemson just wasn't there. Poor conditioning and terrible numbers to go along with that.
Perfect World Projection: I'm sure that Moskos will be whipping himself into shape and conditioning himself properly for this upcoming year. I still am confident he could develop into a quality, mid rotation starter, or a pretty good RP or great LOOGY, as evidenced by his numbers against LHB and how well he handled his relief role. If the stuff comes back, watch out, Moskos will be back on everybody's radar.
Glass Half Empty: The stuff never comes back, and he is left in the dust with Pittsburgh's new regime setup. He ends up being a journeyman middle reliever/innings eater/mop up man.
Path to the Bigs: Unlike their IBC counterparts, the MLB Pirates suck. If Moskos comes out of the gates kicking ass, there's no reason he wouldn't be in line to be in the bigs in sometime in 2010.
Timetable: Moskos just needs to get his stuff back and be focused and conditioned, so we'll be taking it one level at a time with him. My assumption is that he'll be sent to HiA to begin the year, with AA quickly on the radar if he handles it well.
#8: Luis Marte, RHP
Year in Review: Marte succeeded in HiA where he began the year, making 7 starts, posting a 1.98 ERA, 41 SO and 11 BB in 41 IP with a .196 BAA. He was promoted to AA where he suffered a brief stint on the DL, and wasn't welcomed so nicely in AA where his command was hampered. He posted a 5.05 ERA, 32 SO/ 26BB in 57 IP with a .264 BAA.
The Good: The command issues could very well be a result of his injury. He wasn't hit overly hard in AA, as evidenced by his decent BAA there. In the AFL he only walked 6 in 17.2 IP, so hopefully his woes are cured with the command. He has very good stuff, and the velocity is there. Some in the Tigers organization are very high on him as well.
The Bad: The command in AA was atrocious. His velocity was inconsistent throughout the year. While it did improve in the AFL, he was hit to the tune of a .301 BAA, but the lack of walks had his ERA sitting at a respectable 4.15. He gave up 8 HR in AA, as opposed to only 1 in HiA, so we'll have to see what the trend is there.
Perfect World Projection: A good but not great big league SP.
Glass Half Empty: His velocity remains inconsistent, his command comes and goes, and he's left as a 4A type pitcher.
Path to the Bigs: Detroit strugled mightily with SP last year, so if he comes out and dominates for half a season he could very well see Detroit by the end of 2009.
Timetable: Marte should be in AA to begin the year and if he succeeds, we'll be seeing him in the bigs sooner rather than later.
#9: Jake Smolinski, 2B
Year in Review: Smolinski was somebody I had coveted in the 2007 draft and was bummed when not only I didn't get him, but that he went to one of the black holes of the league, Danny V's Marlins. Luckily, he dropped him after Smolinski struggled and I was able to pick him up. Smolinski had a horrendous April, hitting .210 in Class A Hagerstown, he raked in May hitting .341/.432/.500. He was then sidelined by a wrist injury and didn't play until the tale end of the season where he was with SS Vermont, hitting .306 with a .370 OBP. He was then traded from Washington to Florida at the end of the season.
The Good: Smolinski's bat came alive after April, which is an excellent sign for the future. The Marlins now see him as a Coughlin, but with more power. He only struck out 51 times in 291 at bats throughout the entire season, so he makes consistent contact.
The Bad: Injuries. A wrist injury early in the year and a knee injury at the end of the year. He'll need to make a full recovery, and there's been some talk that the Marlins would consider moving him to SS, but after the knee injury that could possibly be difficult.
Perfect World Projection: A solid every day 2B who hits for a pretty good average, mild power and puts the ball in play.
Glass Half Empty: His injuries continue and he's hindered throughout his minor league career before finally reaching the bigs as a mediocre utility player.
Path to the Bigs: The Marlins are always cutting payroll and trading anybody that's mildly talented, and Uggla could be next to go. If that's the case, he'll still be blocked by Coughlin, but the Marlins do like Smolinski's potential better than Coughlin's. He'll need to stay healthy and consistent.
Timetable: Smolinski should see HiA to start next year and needs to stay healthy. From there, who knows.
#10: Adrian Nieto, C
Year in Review: Nieto was drafted in the third round, pick 151 overall by the Nationals. He received a $376,000 signing bonus, signing 3 days before the deadline. He reported to the GCL for a whopping 23 at bats.
The Good: Switch hitting catchers are always nice, just ask Jorge Posada or Matt Wieters. He has excellent makeup and is intelligent, knowing how to attack hitters as a signal caller, and he is quick to see how pitchers are attacking him. He has an above average arm which appears better than it is because of his quick release and accuracy, which are another two pluses.
The Bad: His receiving skills and overall fielding need refinement, from fielding popups to fielding bunts. He needs to keep himself in shape and have better pitch recognition while he's in the batters box, but as a catcher that should come easily.
Perfect World Projection: With his tools and intangibles, a Jorge Posada comp is a fair one to make.
Glass Half Empty: He never develops his pitch recognition and doesn't keep himself in shape and winds up being a backup catcher.
Path to the Bigs: Let's play a season in the minor leagues before we determine that.
Timetable: Nieto should see A ball at some point in 2009.
#11: Michael Watt, LHP
Year in Review: Drafted by the Dodgers in the second round in 2007, Watt spent 08 in class A short season, where he pitched 80.2 innings, going 9-4 with a 4.35 ERA, 79 SO/21 BB, 1.68 GO/AO with a .281 BAA. At seasons end, he was traded to the Padres to complete the Greg Maddux deal, a deal which only would have sent Watt to San Diego if the Dodgers made the playoffs.
The Good: He's a high school lefty drafted by Logan White. Enough said. He touches 91 with his fastball and is developing the feel for his curveball. At 6'1, 185, he probably won't ever develop into a flame thrower but made great strides learning actually how to pitch and not throw. Now in the Padres system, he should be regarded pretty highly within their weak organization. His command was good and he struck out a fair number of batters for his debut as well.
The Bad: He isn't fully a pitcher yet and is still developing his secondary offerings, which he'll need to master in order to be a good big league starting pitcher since he only throws in the high 80's/low 90's.
Perfect World Projection: A good lefty SP who can win 13-15 games per year pitching as a #2-4 SP. Still difficult to say until he spends a year in A or HiA and develops.
Glass Half Empty: He never develops his secondary offerings and fizzles out in the Padres system.
Path to the Bigs: The Padres system sucks, so if he does well to start 2009 he should move up on the organizational depth chart. He'll only be two years removed from high school this year so he's still a ways away from the MLB.
Timetable: He should see class Low A this year and if he succeeds, high A and maybe a taste of AA isn't out of the question.
The Sleeper: Francisco Samuel- Cardinal reliever with a devastatingly good slider and 97 MPH heat. A little more command and he'll rocket to St. Louis, which needs bullpen help bad, relatively quickly.
Review: Two five star guys and a bunch of guys that are very raw and out of high school. Not ranked was Rafael Rodriguez, who could be anything from Vlad Guerrero to nothing at this point. High school draftees Watt, Ahrens, Gallagher and Smolinski are held in high regard by me and I expect them to take off this year.
