2008 IBC Marlins - Season in Review

[Orioles]

2008 IBC Florida Marlins - Season in Review
(updated 12/14/08)

A quick review of 08 before diving fully into 09. 2008 DMB projections are listed under the player's name w/ 2008 MLB stats listed under those in my stupid ugly-ass team color.
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Lineup

The IBC Marlins were the NL's 3rd highest-scoring offense, putting up a respectable 864 runs in 2008. Expected to be the team's strength going into the season, DL stints of 40 or more games for Crawford, Kinsler, Ortiz, Matsui and Tulowitzki threatened to derail Florida's run at a division crown. Relying on more than a little luck, the Marlins were able to coax passable stand-in performances out of a hodgepodge of platoon players and replacement-level FA signings such as Nathan Haynes, Edgar Gonzalez, Omar Quintanilla, Jack Hannahan, et. al. Without burners Crawford and Kinsler atop the order for long stretches, Florida's running game flagged and the team relied increasingly on the longball to generate offense. Only the slugging Reds topped the Marlins' 224 total team dingers in the NL. A timely second-half return for mashing 1B David Ortiz (39 HR in 119 G) proved enough of an offensive boost to propel the Fish into the postseason (earning the GM his first IBC playoff berth).

1. LF Carl Crawford, L (Age 27)

(.308/.350/.464) [640 AB, 34 2B, 12 3B, 14 HR, 54 SB, 10 CS]
(.273/.319/.400) [443 AB, 12 2B, 10 3B, 8 HR, 25 SB, 7 CS]

Injuries limited Crawford to 109 G in 2008, but he returned healthy for the postseason where he appeared to regain his power stroke, posting an .800+ OPS and swatting a pair of HR. Crawford should be healthy and poised to bounce back this season hitting at or near the top of a stacked Rays lineup.

2. 2B Ian Kinsler, R (26)

(.271/.350/.443) [510 AB, 20 HR, 20 SB, 4 CS]
(.319/.375/.517) [518 AB, 18 HR, 26 SB, 2 CS]

Kinsler kept pace offensively with AL MVP Pedroia as one of the top two 2B in the AL until injury ended his season with 40 games to play. Depending on projections, could steal the leadoff spot from Crawford, or be moved down to take advantage of his power. Needs cut down on the errors and generally improve defensively, but an elite bat at his position even with some normal stat regression from last season's breakout.

3. 1B David Ortiz, L (33)

(.311/.430/.616) [511 AB, 40 2B, 38 HR]
(.264/.369/.507) [416 AB, 30 2B, 23 HR]

Big Papi battled injuries in 2008, playing in only 109 G. However, in 119 G in the IBC he carried the Marlins to the NLE crown with a line of:
.326/.451/.670, 439 AB, 30 2B, 39 HR, 104 R, 108 RBI, 19 IBB. M-V-Papi. Hopefully 7 GP at 1B is enough for a defensive rating there. Manageable number of errors (13) for Florida in the IBC this season, though he probably let more than a few screamers get by him. Ortiz's bat still makes up for any deficiencies in the field.

4. 3B Aramis Ramirez, R (30)

(.307/.365/.565) [573 AB, 40 2B, 34 HR]
(.289/.380/.518) [554 AB, 44 2B, 27 HR]

Ramirez posted another All-Star caliber campaign in 2008. Aramis recorded career highs in both 2B (44) and BB (74) on the way to the 4th highest VORP among all MLB 3B. 2008 was his 5th consecutive season finishing among MLB's top 7 3B in VORP. Ramirez led the '08 IBC Marlins in hits (206), runs (109) and RBI (113).

5. CF Hunter Pence, R (25)

(.309/.354/.524) [550 AB, 38 2B, 10 3B, 20 HR, 12 SB]
(.269/.318/.466) [595 AB, 34 2B, 4 3B, 25 HR, 11 SB]

Few expected Hunter Pence to repeat his stellar 2007 rookie stat line of .322/.360/.539 (108 G) in his first full big-league season, but the young OF slumped badly at times in an up-and-down 2008 sophomore campaign before rallying with a n encouraging September (.302/.388/.581). His .320-20-100 season (including 15 3B - good for 2nd in the IBC) was crucial to the IBC Marlins hanging on in a tight 08 NL East race.

6. RF Hideki Matsui, L (34)

(.286/.368/.479) [539 AB, 23 HR]
(.294/.370/.424) [337 AB, 9 HR]

Injuries held Godzilla to 93 G and prevented him from following his strong 2007 offensive campaign (.855 OPS, 25 HR, 103 RBI) with a similar effort in 2008. However, his 3-year averages of .291/.372/.469 indicate that a healthy Matsui should remain a dangerous LH bat for the IBC Marlins in 2009. Though better-suited to a DH role for an AL club, Matsui spent time at both corner OF spots for the MLB Yankees in 08. The Fish are hoping above-average D in LF and CF (Crawford and Pence) will compensate for Matsui's fielding deficiencies.

7. SS Troy Tulowitzki, R (24)

(.298/.366/.501) [605 AB, 37 2B, 26 HR]
(.263/.332/.401) [377 AB, 24 2B, 8 HR]

After finishing as runner-up to Ryan Braun in the 2007 NL ROY voting and helping to lead his Rockies to their first World Series berth, much was expected from Tulo in 2008. Unfortunately various injuries limited the young SS to just 101 G. However, Tulowitzki's .330/.392/.534 averages in September after a return to full health bode well for the upcoming season. When fully healthy, he's arguably the best defensive MI in baseball, so a full 2009 season manning short for the IBC Marlins could have a tremendous impact on the fortunes of the team's pitching staff.

8. C Geovany Soto, R (25)

(.299/.368/.508) [472 AB, 32 2B, 21 HR]
(.285/.364/.504) [494 AB, 35 2B, 23 HR]

Soto exceeded most expectations in MLB in 2008, running away with the NL ROY award while improving his work behind the dish and establishing himself as one of the best young catchers in the game. Among MLB catchers, only Joe Mauer and Brian McCann bested Soto in VORP.

Bench

Other 2008 contributors: Raul Casanova, C; Scott Hairston, OF; Joe Mather, 1B/OF; Omar Quintanilla, 2B/SS; Edgar Gonzalez, UT; Nathan Haynes, OF; Randy Ruiz, 1B; Justin Leone, UT; Jack Hannahan, 3B; Jerry Hairston, Jr., UT.


Rotation

The IBC Marlins rotation was, for the most part, a disappointment in 2008. The team's pitching staff ended up somewhere in the middle of the NL pack in runs allowed (795) and ERA (4.26). Though Florida went long stretches without defensive standouts Crawford and Tulowitzki, the injury replacements at 1B and OF for Ortiz and Matsui couldn't help but improve team defense significantly. Season-ending injuries to pitchers Dustin McGowan (at that time the team's best SP) and Adam Miller might be identified as the culprit for Florida's run-prevention woes had youngsters Gio Gonzalez and Micah Owings not filled in so capably. Most of the blame for the pitching staff's failures should be laid at the feet of underperforming aces Justin Verlander and Ben Sheets, whose 4.70+ ERAs in the IBC NLE were a major disappointment (especially considering the team's preseason move to Miami from Baltimore - far away from the murderers' rows assembled in Toronto and New York).

1. SP Justin Verlander, R (Age 25)

(3.82/1.25) [209.2 IP, 195 H, 178 K, 68 BB]
(4.84/1.40) [201.0 IP, 195 H, 163 K, 87 BB]

Verlander posted his worst statistical season as a pro in 2008, falling far short of expected statistical benchmarks. Were he not coming off of All-Star caliber seasons at ages 23 + 24, a setback like this season might be more troubling. However, given his age, his stuff, and the role of luck and defense in his statistical performance, the Marlins expect JV's performance in 2009 to look more like a young ace entering his prime than the impostor who showed up in 08.

2. SP Ben Sheets, R (30)

(3.98/1.20) [199.0 IP, 196 H, 173 K, 42 BB]
(3.09/1.15) [198.1 IP, 181 H, 158 K, 47 BB]

Although Sheets wasn't able put together a strong season for the IBC Marlins, he did have a successful MLB season. His 31 starts in 2008 were the RH ace's most since he took the hill 34 times during his career-season of 2004. Florida will count on Sheets to anchor the team's rotation in 2009.

3. SP Dustin McGowan, R (26)

(3.84/1.32) [194.1 IP, 178 H, 171 K, 79 BB]
(4.37/1.37) [111.1 IP, 115 H, 85 K, 38 BB]

Acquired in the offseason for young 1B James Loney (while the Marlins were still in Baltimore), McGowan entered the ASB as the undisputed ace of the team on the strength of his first 20 starts in *ahem* teal. The former TOR #1 pick's 1st-half line placed him among the NL's leaders in a number of categories (NL rank):

8-4, 3.08 ERA (6th)/1.13 WHIP (4), 128.2 IP (9), 104 H, 48 BB, 100 K, .224 (6)/.287 (5)/.319 (1), .606 OPS (2), 2.68 CERA (3)

Much to the disappointment of all ten Marlins fans, injury would end McGowan's season at the All-Star game. The loss of the Savannah, Ga. native came with a 10% drop in attendance, as McGowan's cousin Cletus realized it was cheaper to pay to get drunk at Sand Gnats games than to drive to South Florida and do it for free (and fewer deer, police cars, and school buses on the drive home).

4. SP Gio Gonzalez, L (23)

Gonzalez’s low IP projection (30.2) made him a bit of a risk in the Marlins’ 2008 rotation. While he struggled in his first extended MLB action in Oakland, his age and history of initial struggles preceding success at lower levels give the Florida brass reason to hope that he will contribute again in 2009. Unlike MLB, Gonzalez turned in an IBC debut worthy of NL ROY consideration as the Marlin’s most effective SP through his 31 starts in 2008 (NL rank):

12-6, 3.56 ERA (10th)/ 1.28 WHIP (12), 184.2 IP, 165 H, 192 K (8), .239 BAA (7)

The one blemish on double-G’s 2008 resume was his NL-worst 31 HR allowed. The Fish will look for the young LH starter to keep a few more from leaving the aquarium this season.

5. SP Micah Owings, R (26)

Owings struggled a bit in MLB in 2008, but proved a major contributor to the IBC Marlins’ playoff run. In 15 starts and 17 relief appearances, Owings posted an 8-5 record with a 4.56 ERA over 106.1 IP. However, Owings’s bat had at least as big an impact on Florida’s fortunes as his arm, providing some much-needed sock with key sluggers in and out of the lineup due to injury. In 123 ABs (including 6 GS at 1B), the young two-way player managed a batting line that gave his “swingman” role meaning outside of the bullpen:

123 AB, .309/.344/.642, .986 OPS, 12 2B, 20 R, 9 HR, 25 RBI, 7.8 RC/27

Though prone to the swing-and-miss, Owings murdered right-handed pitching to the tune of a .725 SLG. Dealt to the Reds in the trade netting Arizona slugger Adam Dunn, Owings’s reaction to his MLB change-of-address will do much to determine his future role with the IBC Marlins.


Bullpen

CL Trevor Hoffman, R (41)

(3.23/1.14) [75.1 IP, 31 SV, 68 H, 18 BB, 62 K]
(3.77/1.04) [45.1 IP, 30 SV, 38 H, 9 BB, 46 K]

Hoffman posted respectable overall numbers as the IBC Marlins’ closer in 2008, notching 32 SV with a 3.56 ERA. However, his 2-10 record and 8 BS showed him to be a less-than-reliable option at the end of games — a problem that reared its ugly head in the postseason against St. Louis. This offseason the Florida front office has already made clear that competition for the closer role this spring will be open, adding back-end bullpen depth through trade and waiver activity. The Marlins hope one of Chris Ray, Jeremy Affeldt, Adam Miller or Mike Adams will project well enough to take over the closer role so that they can slide Hoffman into an 8th-inning role where his consistent dominance of right-handed batters ought to make him an effective setup reliever.

Other 2008 contributors: Justin Miller, R; Boof Bonser, R; Jeremy Affeldt, L; Zach Duke, L; Corey Doyne, R; Jamie Walker, L; Luis Ayala, R; Stephen Bray, R; Nate Robertson, L.
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2008 Conclusion

The 2008 campaign had its positives, but ultimately the Marlins' performance should be considered a disappointment based on preseason expectations of an IBC World Series contender in Miami.

The club survived injuries to a few key players, and underwhelming performances by a few others, to eke out an NL East division crown and give the GM his first IBC postseason berth. However, a first round sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals highlighted some of the areas where the Florida brass clearly came up short in 2008. Namely, the Marlins failed to adequately address issues created by the switch from the AL to the NL. A shortage of LH punch in the lineup forced the Fish to stick with Matsui and Ortiz (when healthy) every day in the field when one or both are probably better suited to a DH role in the AL. Injury woes exacerbated a lack of the depth and defensive versatility needed to play matchups properly in the National League.

The Marlins still have an excellent young core of players, and the GM should go into the upcoming season with a better understanding of some of the intricacies of building a contender in the senior circuit. The continued replenishment of the farm system and stability of the big club at most positions gives Florida some offseason options in trade to try to take the next step and win a postseason series in 2009.

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