2007 Draft

[Orioles]

2007 IBC Marlins Draft Review

1. Thought I'd take a quick look at how the Fish fared in last year's edition of the IBC draft, though in retrospect, it might have been better not to recall all the details realizing my errors in the first two rounds. It would have helped had I made my official draft list before Rd. 3, so I mostly blame myself for laziness, but also lay a bit of blame on the pre-official draft date 1st round drafting thing for hurrying me (thankfully done away with in favor of the actual draft start date this year).
2. Joe Savery, LH SP
   
   Though Savery's stock dropped a bit after a subpar 2008, he hasn't fallen of the prospect map by any means. A strong 2009 would vault him right back up into the ranks of the game's better LH SP prospects. What really kills me about this pick, is that at the moment of decision I was wavering between taking Savery (who best suited my organizational need for a LH SP and was expected to be one of the quicker SP to the majors) and Madison Bumgarner (who I liked better long term, but considered more risky). Oops. Had I made the right call there and gone with Bumgarner, adding him to Flores and Arencibia would have been a pretty impressive draft haul. I guess the lesson here is that drafting too much based on organizational need can burn you.
3. Wendell Fairley, OF
   
   Tough debut for the toolsy/athletic Fairley. In retrospect, either of the guys at the top of my list for the next round (Nick Barnese or Neftali Soto) might have been a better pick, though Fairley's bat began to come around late in the season (.836 OPS in August), so there's reason to hope he'll begin to fulfill his potential in 2009.
4. J.P. Arencibia, C
   
   After a strong 2008 in which he continued to show massive power (though not quite enough plate discipline), Arencibia has vaulted himself into the upper echelon of catching prospects. Having established himself as Toronto's "catcher of the future," Arencibia could see major league action by the end of this season. He should find his way into most postseason top 100 lists.
5. Jake Smolinski, OF
   
   The only 07 draftee no longer on the Marlins' roster. At some point this season between injuries to regulars and constantly mining for breakout prospects, I thought I could slip Smolinski through waivers and let him sit out there until a roster spot opened up allowing me to pick him up again. A fatal misjudgment apparently, as JP snagged him almost as soon as I dropped him, and having his name in the paper by inclusion in an offseason deal from Washington to Florida (where the Nats acquired Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham) has given his prospect value a nice boost. Definitely regret letting Smolinski slip away so easily.
6. Mason Tobin, RH SP
   
   A strong season in the Class A Midwest League should keep Tobin moving up the chain towards Anaheim. He pitched well enough to remain solidly on the prospect radar before injury ended his season in mid-June.
7. Wilmer Flores, SS
   
   Round 6... jackpot. Adding Flores, who drew Miguel Cabrera comps in dominating the Appy league as its youngest player, made this draft a winner for the Marlins. Flores has a chance to become one of the elite positional prospects in baseball, if he hasn't already.

[RedSox]

I think Tobin had TJ.

[Orioles]

I think Tobin had TJ.

Good to know. Well, at least he was pitching well before he went down.

[Rangers]

good idea

[Orioles]

I know Tobin went on the DL June 11th, but the only info I can find says "strained forearm," and nothing about TJ. He had TJ before being drafted by LAA. Did you see anywhere specifically that he's having TJ again?

[RedSox]

Maybe that was the TJ I saw. Looks like it was a strained shoulder. LAA thinks he'll be good to go by spring training.