2008-2009 College Basketball Preview

[Orioles]

DISCLAIMER: you guys know I am an unabashed Big East conference superfan. Most years, I'm able to step back and look at the national scene fairly impartially. This year the Big East is so good that it will be difficult to hold back from picking 9, 10 or even 11 tourney teams. The good news is, no amount of hyperbole about the strength of this year's BE conference will be too much, because it just really IS that good. Perfect storm of an unusual number of returnees (18 of the 25 All-Big East selections chose to come back) a talented crop of impact freshmen, and a down year in the middle/bottom of some of the other major conferences. So, I'll follow my preview of the national college hoop scene with a quick BE preview (b/c I can't help myself).

Coming up, rundown of CBB top 15 teams, sleepers and overrated teams. It's the most wonderful time of the year! (grinning and clapping like a retahded kid)

[Royals]

What, no Big East rundown? I thought you were a BE superfan?

[Orioles]

So, I'll follow my preview of the national college hoop scene with a quick BE preview (b/c I can't help myself).

its coming. working on both right now.

[Astros]

Well after getting my first look at IU last night, I can say we'll be lucky to get 10 wins. They play really hard, there's just not a lot of talent. 4 freshmen and a transfer from Eastern Michigan are the starters, and I'd say 2, maybe 3 of the freshmen would be coming off the bench in a normal IU year, and at least one would redshirt. Oh well, Crean's there, he's getting the foundation in place, just gotta give him time

[Orioles]

Dunno if I'm gonna finish this before Syracuse has a chance to beat Kansas, so (like last year) they're my non-top 25 team with the best chance to crack the top 10. Devendorf (who I hate more than any other college basketball player) lead them in scoring w/ 17 ppg at one point, and missed last season. Johnny Flynn was one of the best freshman, and best PG, in the nation. Paul Harris is a beast. Andy Rautins came off his ACL injury and played for the Canadian National Team, and he can stroke it from beyond the arc. Onuaku is a good enough post presence to keep some of the leagues better front lines busy. After two season on the bubble, Boeheim has his most healthy talent in years, and he knows it. He also knows it will be a daily war in one of the toughest conferences ever, but they have a chance to challenge for one of the byes in the Big East Tournament.

[Orioles]

2009 College Basketball Preview


There are currently only two programs nationally that have clear talent advantages over all but 1-3 teams nationally every 2 to 3 seasons. Carolina and Connecticut. Over the last 5 years or so, I doubt you'll find any other schools close in high NBA draft picks or total NBA draft picks. The next tier recruiting-wise for the next 5 yrs or so would probably be Texas, Louisville, Duke, UCLA, Kansas, Memphis, Florida, Georgetown, OSU, Syracuse, West Virginia. Those programs have (or will have in the next few seasons) years where the across-the-board quality of recruits they're bringing in (UConn + UNC's 4-5 first round draft picks) or one special recruit (Melo, Durant) is enough to put them on the doorstep of a Final Four. The rest will win it on coaching, experience, heart or some sort of crazy George Mason magical mystery tour.

This season there are three teams whose overall talent level separates them from the rest of the country as the top contenders for the NCAA crown. Carolina, Connecticut and Louisville have complete teams. Each has a quality inside presence, perimeter shooters and ballhandlers, and benches deep with McDonalds All-Americans. While all have "impact" recruits already being relied upon for key minutes (Ed Davis, Kemba Walker and Samardo Samuels), all three teams are so deep in similarly regarded talents that they won't be asked to shoulder more than they're capable of. UConn could use a bit more frontcourt depth, UNC could play better defense, and Louisville could use some health. One of these three teams should be cutting down the nets in Detroit next March.


Top 25



1. Connecticut

Jim Calhoun has his most talented squad since the NBA draft-pick laden 2006 Huskies became a side-note to George Mason's fairytale tourney run. UNC may be deeper in talent than any other team, but no team in the land can match the Huskies' first 5. Junior G A.J. Price returns from an ACL injury suffered in UConn's 2008 Tournament loss to San Diego. Price will slide to shooting guard to take advantage of his scoring abilities and make room for incoming freshman PG Kemba Walker. Walker has the speed to push the ball up the floor when Calhoun wants to outrun the opposition, and earning tournament MVP honors en route to leading the US team to a silver medal in the U18 World Championships indicates that the Bronx, N.Y. native might have the chops to helm a championship contender. Jerome Dyson, who lead the team in scoring as a Freshman, gives the Huskies a trio of guards who can handle and score.

As solid as the perimeter players are, it's 7'3" Tanzanian Hasheem Thabeet who will be the key player if Connecticut is to return to the NCAA mountaintop in Detroit this year. Thabeet, who has already broken numerous UConn shot-blocking marks, is a defensive game-changer who spent the offseason learning to attack the basket on offense. It's no mistake that Calhoun has built his team around Thabeet. For all the running in transition and pressing on defense we've seen out of UConn team's in the past, the one constant is ownership of the painted area. The Huskies have led the nation in blocked shots 6 years running, actively funneling opposing dribblers into the post to contend with the likes of Thabeet. On the offensive end, few teams are better at consistently attacking the basket and drawing contact using superior size.

Connecticut's ability to match UNC's talent and minimize their depth advantage by creating contact gives them as good as chance as any to take down the preseason favorites. For the Huskies to win it all, they'll need Thabeet to improve his offensive game around the rim, and for Jeff Adrien to continue to do yeoman's work with nightly double-doubles. The return of F Stanley Robinson in December, and the possible addition of freshman big man Ater Majok, could give UConn the depth they need to compete with the likes of Carolina. It's the presence of Thabeet (perhaps the one player who can contain Hansbrough) and the personnel to give opposing teams multiple looks offensively (big, small, fastbreak, etc.) that makes them my choice this year as the country's #1 team.


2. North Carolina

Carolina has a team deeper in talent and experience than any other vying for the NCAA crown this season. The Tar Heels return their top six scorers, including national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough. Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green tested NBA draft waters before returning for another shot at a championship alongside Hansbrough, Marcus Ginyard, and Deon Thompson. Highly touted 6-10 freshman PF Ed Davis will need to quickly assume a larger rebounding and interior defensive role with 7-0 fellow freshman Tyler Zeller on the shelf due to injury.

Lawson runs the break as well or better than any point in the nation, and he has the perimeter shooters to kick out to when defenses collapse on him or Hansbrough. Ginyard, Ellington, Lawson and Green are all threats from the outside at better than .360 3PT pct (Ellington and Ginyard each connected on exactly 40% of their triples last year). Hanbrough is truly an unstoppable force in the post. I tried desperately to hate the guy because of his goofy baby face, giant eyeballs, and frat-boy demeanor, but you watch this guy once, and you wish all post players could play that way. He is ALWAYS attacking the basket. The weight of his body is almost always going towards the rim, and because he doesn't hesitate, defenders have to catch up and either foul him or watch him bank one in. Who knows how technique, footwork and tenacity will make up for athletic deficiencies in the NBA, so catch a UNC game before he's sitting next to Adam Morrison on the Bobcats bench and wondering why Larry Brown keeps scowling at him.

As evidenced by their being the first unanimous preseason No. 1 in the history of the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll - nobody will be surprised if UNC takes home the hardware and cuts down the nets in Detroit. However, if they want to avoid an exit like last year's disappointment against eventual champion Kansas, they'll need to improve defensively. Hansbrough is proving himself one of the best players in recent college basketball history, and Roy has the tools again this year to help take him to the top.


3. Louisville

Okay, I know I put Louisville in my Final Four every year, but that just speaks to how many talented players Rick Pitino has amassed over the last few seasons. Last year's Cardinals team struggled with health and "Caracter" issues. They seemed to click near the end of the season, but perhaps too late. After blowing out their first few tourney opponents (Boise, Oklahoma, Tennessee) they lost at the hands of Carolina in the Elite 8. In the offseason, troubled Derrick Caracter was told to sit out this year (he will have a chance to return for next season) after he had become a distraction to the team. The summer wasn't all about addition by subtraction, though.

Pitino landed a potentially game-changing recruit in C Samardo Samuels, who is expected to contribute immediately. Terrence Williams and Earl Clark considered jumping to the NBA, but decided they could help their draft status with another year in college. While Louisville lost team leader and skilled post passer David Padgett, Samuels should fit better into Pitino's agressive defensive style and provide a more intimidating defensive presence than Padgett. Padgett was also in and out of the lineup with knee problems, making it difficult for the Cardinals to get into a rhythm over a stretch of games.

The multi-talented Terrence Williams should be Louisville's best player this season, capable of filling up the stat sheet in a point-forward type role. The Cardinals return 4 of 5 starters from last season's team. Andre McGee and Edgar Sosa are both guards who can score, distribute and have tournament experience. Jerry Smith can fill it up from long range, allowing Pitino to stretch out defenses and open up opportunities for his very talented frontline of Samuels and Earl Clark.

Deep and talented with versatile players who create matchup problems for opponents, Louisville will once again be a superlative defensive team that uses athleticism and ball pressure to create turnovers. If they can stay healthy and have another player or two step up with Williams to carry some of the offensive load, Pitino's Louisville squad has all the tools to reach Detroit.


4. Gonzaga

Mark Few is a terrific coach who finally has some size (6'11" Austin Daye) to go with an excellent PG (Jeremy Pargo). If ever there were a year for the Zags to bust into the Final Four, this is it with many of the major conferences in down cycles


5. Notre Dame

Returning Big East POY Luke Harangody teams with sharpshooting Kyle McAlarney to form one of the most dangerous inside-outside combos in the college game. Is this the year Mike Brey gets off the tourney schnide and takes a team past the Sweet 16?


6. Michigan State

Tom Izzo is too good of a coach not to get back to the Final Four soon. Though the BigTen won't be particularly strong this year, Izzo might have the horses in star Raymar Morgan, solid center Goran Suton, and highly touted freshman forward Delvon Roe.


7. Duke

Loaded with quality recruits and returning starters, Duke lurks as the lone threat to UNC in the ACC. Kyle Singler becomes the focus of a solid offense, but the Blue Devils don't have a true rebounding center to control the paint and could struggle against bigger opponents if Singler isn't hitting from outside and drawing interior defenders to the perimeter to open up the middle of the defense.


8. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh has talented frontcourt players in Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, as well as savvy upperclassmen Levance Fields at guard. They should be a tough out.


9. UCLA

The Bruins add G Jrue Holiday (considered the #1 recruit alternatively at PG and SG by different recruiting publications) to their backcourt to form an excellent trio of perimeter players (with Darren Collison and Josh Shipp). UCLA might lack the muscle inside to compete for a Final Four spot, especially if Alfred Aboya misses significant time.


10. Texas

Every year it seems Rick Barnes watches one of his talented youngsters jump ship for NBA riches. Two seasons ago it was Kevin Durant, and last year it was D.J. Augustin, one of the country's best PG. Barnes just keeps restocking. PG A.J. Abrams needs to protect the basketball and create opportunities for SF Damion James and C Connor Atchely for UT to make a deep tournament run.


11. Syracuse

Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf return from a season lost to injury to join a talented 'Cuse squad steered by sophomore PG Johnny Flynn. They have size in the post with Alinze Onuaku, and Paul Harris is strong enough to battle with taller players in the painted area. Flynn was one of the best PG in the league as a freshman last season, and he should thrive with some of the scoring burden removed and placed on the returning players.


12. Oklahoma

Blake Griffin is probably one of the 5 best players in the country. With a senior PG and a dynamic freshman SG in Willie Warren, coach Jeff Capel may take his talented Sooners team deep into March.


13. Memphis

Calipari always has a gross amount of athletic talent. Losing Derrick Rose hurts any team, but Coach Cal didn't take long to find a replacement in freshman phenom Tyreke Evans. Evans' adjustment to the college game will go a long way towards determining how far Memphis makes it this season.


14. Georgetown

The Hoyas lost two players who had been program stalwarts and team leaders in Jonathan Wallace and Roy Hibbert. Sophomore Chris Wright has shown he can be more of a playmaking distributor than Wallace was, and top recruit Greg Monroe has been better than anticipated and Georgetown's best player in the early going. Monroe's athleticism (allowing him to get back quickly in transition) and ball movement skills might make him a better fit for JTIII's offense than Hibbert was. A dangerous team that could become a serious contender if Jr. DaJuan Summers finally makes the "leap" to stardom that Hoya fans hoped he would make last year, after Jeff Green's departure.


15. Florida

Billy D's Gators missed the tourney last year, but in a weak SEC don't expect it to happen again. Nick Calathes, Jai Lucas and Walter Hodge are good enough to get them back. Oh, and Billy can coach 'em up pretty good too.

16. Purdue

17. Villanova

18. Davidson

19. Arizona State

20. Kansas

21. UNLV

22. Marquette

23. Xavier

24. Tennessee

25. UAB

Coming up, Big East preview...

[Yankees]

Great job - my quick take on the most underrated and overrated team in this would be:
1) Gonzaga is overrated - I think this team would finish 4th in the Big East, I don't see the depth
2) Georgetown is underrated - Impeccably coached, and I think people are overrating the losses of Hibbert and Wallace. Two guys who personified "good" not "great." This Monroe guy looks like the real deal. They need to knock down jumpers, but if they can, they can beat anyone in the country. Nice to know going into a game you'll never be out-coached.

[Astros]

Don't forget Doc Rivers kid left Georgetown to transfer to Indiana

[Yankees]

That's a good thing for Georgetown right? That kid was terrible...I've never seen a college basketball player in person that I thought I could take one-on-one more than that kid.

[Orioles]

Great job - my quick take on the most underrated and overrated team in this would be:
1) Gonzaga is overrated - I think this team would finish 4th in the Big East, I don't see the depth
2) Georgetown is underrated - Impeccably coached, and I think people are overrating the losses of Hibbert and Wallace. Two guys who personified "good" not "great." This Monroe guy looks like the real deal. They need to knock down jumpers, but if they can, they can beat anyone in the country. Nice to know going into a game you'll never be out-coached.

Had a tough time with #4 for sure. I always think Gonzaga is overrated (at least the last few years, since they became so popular as an underrated selection as to be frequently overrated). I do think Mark Few is a good enough coach to coach his team past a more talented opponent, but his team needs to run into the right opponents along the way. I went with them at #4 instead of ND b/c A) tough to predict a 1985 repeat of 3/4 FF teams from the BE - even if this is the most likely year to see it, and B) Few won't be dealing with as many size mismatches as he has in the past when facing high majors, as they have a handful of 6'8"+ guys on the roster now.

I may have underrated Georgetown on sort of a reverse-homerism theory, trying to avoid having too many BE teams too high. I agree that they have a great chance to quietly become part of the national top 10 picture - though depth is a bit of an issue with a lot of younger players on the bench (Jason Clark and Henry Sims are freshmen coming off the bench for a combined 30 min/g or so). Monroe is even better out of the gate than anyone expected, and I think that both JTIII's coaching ability and the level of talent he has assembled on this team have been underestimated nationally. (PS, nobody in DC is weeping about "defensive specialist" Jeremiah Rivers's departure. Good luck with all that PT at IU pal. Try not to lose 25 games this year). Chris Wright, who I think will share ball-handling responsibilities with Jesse Sapp, was one of those players who stepped on the court and looked like an unfazed upperclassman from day 1 last year, even though he missed a lot of the season with injuries.

What's great about being a Hoya fan right now is that there's a feeling that Thompson has only begun to fine-tune his system to work with world-class athletes. Princeton-style offenses have always been regarded nationally as systems used to limit advantages in talent, athleticism and individual scoring ability by reducing total offensive possessions while increasing team per-possession offensive efficiency. What JTIII has done is realize a handful of things:

1. one way to counter that type of system had been to play more physically, imposing your physical and athletic will on the opponent to disrupt the efficiency of the offense. That's not as viable a counter-measure when the guys running the Princeton-style system are all McDonalds All-Americans.

2. If your team matches up in terms of size/skill with opponents, you can make halftime adjustments, or even step out of your system where necessary and not be instantly overwhelmed by the oppositions' talent or athleticism advantages, which are nil against all but UConn and Carolina.

3. JTIII is figuring out exactly which types of guys fit best in his system at this level. Hibbert was not a great fit. Monroe seems to be a better fit. Even though he's already had remarkable recruiting success (and continues to have G'town on the short list of many top 100 and even top 10 recruits) in a short period of time, I think we'll see him get even better at bringing in the right guys with each recruiting class.

If anyone would like to see the difference between how bad coaching can affect a player's career vs. good coaching, I urge you to watch the uber-talented Michael Sweetney dominate while at Georgetown in spite of then-head coach Craig Esherick's embarrassingly poor coaching (then leave too early and eat his way out of the NBA), then watch how JTIII took an unathletic baby giraffe named Roy Hibbert and made him into a high draft pick and a (starting?) NBA center.

Overrated (in general, and maybe by me too)

- Pittsburgh - I think they have a very good team and Jamie Dixon is an excellent coach, however, one thing that always scared me about them was that they aggressively attack the paint and the basket really well, but Ronald Ramon was always lurking out there and undoubtedly would nail the dagger 3-ball when necessary. They have more inside talent than they've had in years, as Young and Blair are both NBA-level talents, and Fields is about as solid as you can ask for in a college PG. In the early going, Fields has been hitting 3's, but that's not his strength (27% from downtown last season), so Sam Young is their best returning long-range shooter. With the extra foot being added, I'm concerned that Pitt doesn't have enough of a 3 pt. threat to open the middle for Blair to do his thing with those crazy long arms of his (he has Leon Powe crazy-long arms, if you know what I mean).

- UCLA - to be expected when a program humming along at such a ridiculously high level for the last 3 or 4 years is missing a key piece (namely a capable big man). It'll become apparent how thin they are in front if Aboya misses significant time, or as soon as they face a conference opponent with a legit big man. Howland's such a great coach (especially defensively) that they'll still win their share, but maybe not quite enough for a deep tourney run this year.

- Marquette - No idea what to make of this team. Similar situation to UCLA, though they've been playing with this situation for a few years now. Superb trio of guards (McNeal, Matthews and James) but very little in the post. Think Lazar Hayward at 6'6" might struggle to defend some of the conferences 7-footers? Losing Ousmane Barro to graduation really hurt them. They already had to rely on their guards snagging more than a typical share of team rebounds, and now they'll be depending on them even more to attack the boards - which means more opportunites for opposing teams to get behind them and make easy buckets in transition off of defensive rebounds. New head coach, Buzz Williams, isn't too much of a wild card, since he was Crean's assistant.

- Purdue - already skeptical of any contending Big Ten team not named MSU or OSU (or occasionally Wisconsin or Illinois). They have some nice pieces. Hummel is a good player, and if he keeps getting better might be good enough to carry them a few rounds, but again I think there are very few schools (if any) who can expect to go anywhere in March without a legitimate defensive presence in the post.

Underrated

- everyone in the Big East. Seriously, it's impossible to overrate this league this season. Have you seen what even the middle and lower-tier BE teams are doing to non-conference opponents so far? Specifically, the talent level on Syracuse, Providence, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova and maybe Cincinnati (though the Cashmere Wright injury was a big blow) have all been grossly underestimated by the national media. Especially Syracuse, who have the guys and the coaching to make an Elite 8 run if everything breaks right. With teams using a little more zone D to compensate for the extra foot of floorspace around the perimeter, the zone's biggest fan (Boeheim) already has a team who know how to play in it and against it.

- Texas - I don't watch Texas enough to say if Rick Barnes can actually coach or not, but I do know he's one hell of a recruiter. This team has a quality PG in Abrams and some serious athletes for him to get the ball to. Did anyone see that dunk against ND? Ridiculous. Either team could have won that game, and if a relatively young Longhorns team can compete at that level this early in the season with an experienced ND team, they've got a good shot at being a top 10 team by season's end.

- UAB - another team I've tabbed as a "sleeper" or "underrated" for the second year in a row, but Mike Davis keeps bringing in good players (including IU defectors). I like them to at least challenge Memphis in C-USA.

- Providence - mentioned them above, but I absolutely loved their personnel last year before Curry (the PG) got hurt. I like them again this year, though it's a bit tougher to predict with a new coach in Keno Davis.

[Yankees]

I was in DC when JTIII stepped in. A bunch of my friends in DC went to Georgetown. About halfway through that first season, at one of the games, I looked over at them and said, "It must be nice to know you are in good hands for the next 20 years."

JTIII is without question one of the top 5 coaches in the country.

[Giants]

Terrific work Dan, an awesome read. I'm pretty sure Rick Barnes can't coach from all the money Texas lost me during my gambling days 5 years ago (Rick Barnes sucks was an article of faith on the message boards there), and of course Simmons went after him pretty aggressively during the Durant for whatever that's worth. On the other hand, guys can't win until they do, so if he ever pulls of a win then all that crap will go away.

As for Gonzaga, I think they really suffer from playing in the WCC, WCC basketball is really slow, there's never much flow, and it's always ugly (my beloved Santa Clara Broncos always seemed to play them tough at home just by dirtying the game up), and by the end of the year Gonzaga is usually playing to the level of their competition. Typically, when Gonzaga gets to the dance they hit talented teams again, and they just aren't used to competing at that level. The good news for the Zags is the rise of St. Mary's, at least twice and probably three times this year the Zags are going to face off against a terrifically talented team (if you didn't get a chance to see Patty Mills last year do yourself a favor, he's unreal), which will be a better warmup for the tournament.

[Orioles]

JTIII is without question one of the top 5 coaches in the country.

What's amazing about the JTIII era is how instant the change was. There wasn't a period of building recruiting contacts etc., and this guy was coming from a league that didn't give out scholarships. I think his name probably helped some with recruiting contacts, and he immediately made the G'town community feel at ease with him. His Dad was kind of a surly guy who didn't really always embrace the University (perhaps justifiably in different, whiter times). He was there until halfway through my junior year, and when I passed him on campus and said something like "hey coach" he'd always look up and respond in a curt but friendly way - so not choking students like Bob Knight or anything. JTIII is a much better basketball coach than his father will ever be. His dad was a great recruiter and a terrific motivator - and he knew how to use bigs.

The amazing thing about JTIII was that the immediate on court results of having an actual system (not whatever crazy plays Craig Esherick was drawing on the back of napkins at the Tombs) were so apparent that you knew he didn't just have a plan, but a good one that would work if the recruits came in. Honestly, it's not easy for a Catholic school with a crappy I-AA football program that gets worked by Fordham and Colgate to keep up with the UConns and Louisvilles of the world updating facilities and expanding recruiting budgets. That's why his near-instant success was so huge. I'm sure the school has seen immediate returns in Alumni giving numbers since the change (at least for sure from the group of several 1,000 with whom I signed a letter to Pres. Jack DeGoia demanding that he fire Esherick - tho they haven't seen a dime from my broke ass). I just hope something happens to similarly inject life in the programs at St. John's, Providence and similar schools so that they don't get left behind the next time changes are made in the league's structure.

Rick Barnes sucks

And Jake, I agree from what I've seen that Barnes is terrible, but maybe I'm missing something. He should have multiple trips to the Final Four by now. What he doesn't understand that Pitino and Calhoun see clearly is that the most important advantage gained by having superior athleticism is the ability to play defense at a level unavailable to other teams, to dictate the flow of the game from the defensive end. Barnes must be too dazzled by watching his guys fly down the court and 360 dunk to realize that if your guys can beat other guys down the floor, you create easy offense with great defense (turnovers, etc.) It's too bad he doesn't realize that, because NBA scouts do, and not knowing how to defend hurts his guys when they get to the league.

I've heard of Mills. He's the Aussie, right? St. Mary's is supposed to be pretty good this season. If they have an OOC matchup against a major (or when they play Gonzaga I guess) I'll probably check them out.

[Royals]

Re: Louisville - All I've got to say is "Fuck Rick Pitino"

[Giants]

Randy Bennett the St. Mary's coach has some kind of pipeline to Australia and Mills (the 5th Aussie he's recruited) is by far the best of the bunch. Mills might be the fastest player in college basketball, and I bet if he was from the Bronx instead of the boonies he'd have been a Memphis/UNC/UCLA type one and done and off to the NBA already.

Eric Musselman on Mills after last year's win over Oregon: "He is their early offense and their transition offense, and he dictates the tempo of every game. He had 37 points (against Oregon), and I walked into Randy Bennett's office afterward and said, 'He was unselfish.' He's the only player I've ever seen play unselfishly and score 37 points."

Those of you who get ESPNU can check him out in the 76 Classic this coming week. Sorry to gush so much about a kid from a school I don't even like, but if there's another Steve Nash in the NCAA right now it's Mills, all the way down to being a foreigner in the WCC.

[Orioles]

Hoyas vs. Wichita St. in the Old Spice Classic right now on ESPN2 if anyone wants a look at Greg Monroe.

[Orioles]

(PS, nobody in DC is weeping about "defensive specialist" Jeremiah Rivers's departure.

As if I need more evidence I should shut my piehole, Georgetown might have beaten Tennessee today had ace perimeter defender Jeremiah Rivers been available for Thompson to put on Cameron Tatum before he went fucking berserk from downtown in the second half. Those were the only minutes he got, but he was good at his job. Now his job is cheering on the worst Indiana team ever and getting excited about joining them next season.

The Hoyas played well at times, especially for a team with so many freshmen and sophomores in key roles, but depth is clearly an issue. The starting five has a chance to be pretty good by the end of the year. Chris Wright has a nice all-around offensive game, and even though I can't decide if Freeman looks tubby or strong for a 2-guard, he knows how to score the ball. The overall problem was turnovers (some a result of inexperience) and a very un-Georgetown-like defensive effort. That's probably the biggest downside of having so many newcomers (Monroe, Sims, Clark, Vaughn - Wright was hurt for much of last year) playing so much. Omar Wattad's 3-3 explosion from downtown was, um, a welcome surprise.Looking at how lost fr. big man Henry Sims seemed at times, especially on a few defensive assignments, I think the Hoyas could really have used Vernon Macklin's size and experience down low ("big ticket" transferred to Florida). Not a welcome surprise was how poor the D was, but I'd expect it to improve with a few more games, and Tennessee can score.

DaJuan Summers was exactly like he always is - great when aggressive, but too often in the background settling for too many 3's and not attacking. If he played an entire game like he played for spurts in the second half, he'd be a star. The final score didn't quite reflect the close back-and-forth nature of the game, but the Vols really did take control and make a run in the 2nd half.

Greg Monroe looked pretty good. He defends the perimeter like a guard even though he's 6'10" and just has great all-around basketball skills for a guy his age/size. I can't wait to see how good he is by the end of the season (hopefully not TOO good, though, since I think he's already on the pro radar).

The upside of losing to Tennessee is Georgetown vs. Maryland in the 3rd place game tomorrow. Haven't played the Terps in forever, or at least since G'town reclaimed DC for itself.

It really all depends on how the Hoyas come through the most ridiculous stretch of games in a month to start the season I've ever seen. From 12/13 to 1/17, here's the G'town sked:

December 13.....No. 17 Memphis
Dec. 20 + 23......2 shitty teams (Mt. St. Marys + FIU)
December 29.....at No. 2 Connecticut
January 3..........No. 4 Pittsburgh
January 5..........at No. 8 Notre Dame
January 10........Providence
January 14........Syracuse
January 17........at No. 5 Duke

(these are all ranked teams at season's end probably, except maybe PC who I do think is a tourney team)

I mean, seriously? Potentially 3 top 5 teams in one week? Road games @ UConn, @ ND, @ Duke? If they don't get a lot better, real quick, Thompson will have scheduled his team right out of a high seed, or even a tourney berth with so much quality in the BE. John Thompson, Jr. has been openly critical of his son's scheduling so many tough opponents so early, and usually I don't agree, but this year I see his point. You could catch an unlucky break and take it in the poop from the Big East's scheduler. Doesn't look promising, but the first five are really talented, so we'll see if JTIII can work his magic, find a working rotation, and get them where they need to be defensively.

[Orioles]

1) Gonzaga is overrated - I think this team would finish 4th in the Big East, I don't see the depth

Yeah, was way wrong on Gonzaga. Austin Daye did not quite live up to expectations. Still think I'm right about UConn, UNC and Louisville, but I underrated Pitt bigtime (mostly b/c I misjudged how good Sam Young is - his ability to hit the 3 kills opposing teams - as well as their other perimeter shooters). Also whiffed on ND. Gtown I predictably overrated, but honestly I don't think by that much. They've wilted in some key spots, and really showed their youth (or DaJuan Summers's deficiencies as a go-to-guy, depending on how you look at it). They played the nation's toughest schedule, and I think will miss the tournament for it. Their best wins (@ UConn, Memphis, MD, Syracuse, @ Villanova) are better than most tourney resumes, and their worst losses weren't so awful (@ SHU, Cinci twice, @ SJU), there were just too many L's. If, by some miracle, they can win 4 games and get to the final (which would mean beating SJU, Marquette, Nova [maybe], Louisville [no shot]) then I'd give them a fighting chance at a bid.

BE Tourney preview on the way (seriously... not like the once-promised conference preview, but actually "on the way")

[Giants]

I don't feel quite so bad about what Gonzaga did to my boys last night after watching what they did to a much better St. Mary's team tonight. Wow. Certainly no school in this time zone has a that combination of senior leadership, athleticism, and size, and they're getting hot at the right time. It'll be really interesting to see how far they go.

[Astros]

I was all aboard the Marquette bandwagon until James got hurt. Now they'll be lucky to get out of the 2nd round

[Yankees]

I was all aboard the Marquette bandwagon until James got hurt. Now they'll be lucky to get out of the 2nd round

I disagree - like UCONN, I think Marquette is going to be dangerous. I think, like Dysom, James was CLEARLY the most overrated player on that team. Once the team learns to play without him, and rally behind him, they have the horses to run with any team in the country.

[Orioles]

Ok, so my Hoyas' season flaming out in an embarrassing OT defeat at St. John's in a must-win tempered my exuberance for the BE tourney a bit. But then I remembered that they open with another crack at the Redmen on their home floor at the garden tomorrow at 2 PM.

That's not a misprint. SJU at MSG in March, and it's not the NIT, either! I joke, but in a year where the Big East has fielded arguably one of the strongest slates of teams ever by a single conference, it is nice to see that even the conference-RPI-killers (South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers) get a crack. All 16 will be there from the country's best conference, and by winning 9 to 11 straight games (depending on byes) they can cut down the nets in Detroit as champions. May the best team win. Nobody watching college basketball this month can argue they'd rather have "every week be like the playoffs in the BCS" than a champion sorted out on the field of play in a bigass giant one-and-done insane playoff bracket. I digress. Back to the BEast...

I failed to put out a Big East conference preview as promised earlier this season, but I've seen most of the teams play at this point (the ONLY thing I like about TimeWarner cable in NYC is that there are like 4 Big East basketball games on per night between ESPN, SNY, MSG, etc), so here's a quick trip through the bracket with my take:

First Round

(9) Cincinnati vs (16) DePaul - Bearcats get the W here because even though they're not playing well, DePaul stinks. It's a great league, but 0-18? Ouch. Dar Tucker and Mac Koshwal are decent players if you want a glass half-full-ish view. Yancy Gates and Deonta Vaughn are better players, and UC wins.

(12) Georgetown vs (13) St. John's - The Hoyas blew a 15-point second half lead in their OT loss to the Johnnies at Carnesecca Arena last week. It would be a bad sign for JTIII if his troops aren't embarrassed enough and/or focused enough on trying to win as many games as possible to flex their considerable talent advantage and pick up a win.

(ok... I wrote this first part and forgot to post last night, and in the interim, my first prediction is already wrong as DePaul upset Cinci - yeesh. Maybe I'll wait and take another crack at the 2nd round once we have early winners).