Manny vs. Bay

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Manny vs. Bay

Post by Yankees »

I'm still pumped the Red Sox made this trade - realizing a small sample size:

Manny on Red Sox - .927 ops
Bay on Red Sox - .911 ops

Manny on Dodgers - 1.431 ops

Also, Bay is pretty much useless vs. lefties (.740 ops), and has looked pretty lost playing left in Fenway in the games I've seen (has definitely misplayed 3-4 balls in the 5 games I've watched).

I realize that Bay still walks on water around here right now, but he is nowhere near the player Manny is...and they'll be worse for it the more we push towards the end of the season.

And don't give me this, "clubhouse attitude is better," crap - there's not one team that wouldn't benefit from Manny's .314/.417/.566.
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Post by Yankees »

Attacking this FJM-style, I'm in quotes:

Life sure is beautiful these days on Planet Manny. Uhhh, a little too beautiful.

"Sure is when you have an ops of almost 1.5 - wait, what?"

Hey, we couldn't be happier for those Los Angeles Dodgers, who are selling about 30,000 tickets a day now that they've moved their home games to Planet Manny. But we'd like to ask one little question of all those people in L.A. who are showering their man Manny Ramirez with so much love:

"They still play in LA. There's no such thing as Planet Manny."


What the heck are you cheering for?

"Ooooh ooooh, I know this one - the best right-handed hitter of our generation not named Albert Pujols, top 10 right-handed hitter of all-time, and a guy free of the steroids scandal."

For a man who decided his personal net worth was more important than an entire franchise and all the people who played with him, covered for him, depended on him?

"Ah yes, Manny with his team killing .927 ops for the Red Sox. Jesus (Jason Bay), with his .866 ops, is making up for those 60 ops points with 'pleasantness.'"

Sheez. How sad is that?

"Not sad at all?"

"It really bothers me," one GM said this week of the Manny-mania lovefest that has unfolded in L.A. "What he did in Boston was criminal. Now he goes there, and everything's OK? No, sir. It doesn't change the fact that how he got there was criminal."

"It is CRIMINAL to ops .927. The man should be arrested."

Yeah, we know what every Dodgers fan on earth is thinking: "What he did in Boston isn't our problem. He didn't blow up our franchise. So who cares?"

"You mean 'blowing up' like, 'Dude, Manny blew up with a .927 ops,' right? Sorry, can't hear you, right?"

OK, here's why you should care: Because this could easily morph into a giant problem for every franchise; for the entire sport, in fact.

"Yes, it is a giant problem for every franchise that has to throw a baseball in his general vicinity."

If Manny Ramirez wanders into the free-agent market this winter and gets anything close to the four years and $100 million he believes he'll get, think about the message that would send, the precedent that would set.

"Ugh, this is getting repititious already. Yes, it would set the precedent that you pay a lot of money for a truly great hitter. I don't know why, but somehow that's bad."

It would, in effect, be an open invitation to every selfish superstar in baseball to pull a Manny. Act up. Stop hustling. Stop trying. Refuse to play. Make up an injury. Whatever you have to do to get back out there on the free-agent market. It's all worth it.

"Stop hustling. Refuse to play. Make up an injury. Ops .927. Do you have any idea how easy it is to ops .927? I'm talking to YOU Chone Figgins. Hit more home runs posthaste."

Why not? If bad behavior winds up delivering a $100 million reward for Manny Ramirez, why wouldn't two or three, or 50 or 100, other great players think, "Heck, it worked for him. Why not me?"

"Manny is being 'rewarded' for being AMAZING at hitting a baseball. Legendarily hitting the baseball. Two or three others might 'get away' with doing what Manny did - but he's 8th in the league in OPS. And his lazy ass has more ab's than 6 of the top 7 people in front of him."

Most players -- and most agents -- don't think that way, luckily. But that doesn't mean we should pretend there's only one Manny. And we'd be crazy to pretend that his agent, some guy named Scott Boras, has only one client. So don't kid yourself. What happens to Manny this winter can, and will, have larger ramifications.

"There is only one Manny Ramirez. He is truly sensational at the game of baseball - in particular, hitting said baseball. He's 36, and the 2nd oldest (behind Larry Jones) of the top 8 in ops. What larger ramifications could it possibly have? This isn't basketball. There is no salary cap. Manny can't hold the ball for 20 seconds out of the 24 second shot clock - because there IS NOT SHOT CLOCK. He can't not block for his quarterback because there IS NO BLOCKING IN BASEBALL, and THERE ARE NO QUARTERBACKS."

We found ourselves in a conversation on this very subject the other day, with an executive of a team that briefly kicked around Ramirez's name before the deadline. That team would have wanted him purely as a rental, however -- because it was well aware it would have That Other Manny on its hands if it were to sign him beyond this year.

"I...I just don't have the energy. How many different goddamn ways can I mention that he is still awesome?"

This team knew it couldn't possibly give this guy the deal he'll want this winter -- because of that very precedent we just laid out for you.

"Holy christ...this article is just life sucking."

"If you do that," this exec said, "you're setting a precedent that will lead to failure -- and expensive failure."

"Holy hell. Manny's such a distraction his team's have won 2 World Series Championships in spite of him. He's 'failed' to the tune of a career 1.001 OPS, and 515 home runs. If he has 'failed,' so has Lance Armstrong."

But this same executive harbored no illusions that every team in his sport would think that way -- or care about that precedent even if it were to do so.

"Like an hour into the article...Also, this executive should not be working in baseball."

"See, you're thinking logically," he said. "You have to think selfishly. Unfortunately, there will be somebody who says, 'He's just what we're looking for.'"

"The executive went on to say, 'It's just that we aren't looking for one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all-time. We have Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, and Albert Pujols on our team.'"

It's hard to dispute that theory, obviously. There's always somebody. Right? But just out of curiosity, we surveyed officials of five teams from all over the payroll spectrum. The question we asked was this:

What kind of market, and what kind of contract, can Manny expect this winter?

The answers we got headed in every conceivable direction.

"I don't think the market will be very big, and I definitely don't think he'll get $25 million a year for four years," an official of one large-market club said. "How could you go more than two years on a guy like that? I think he'll get the Red Sox deal -- two years at $20 [million] a year."

"Seriously, who wants a one of the best hitters of all-time on their team? Ridiculous..."

"I don't think there'll be a feeding frenzy for Manny Ramirez," said another executive who has worked for large-market, small-market and middle-market teams. "I don't see many places he could land."

"I honestly think we could all be GM's, or at least work in that department for a pro baseball team. This is just getting ridiculous."

Said a middle-market GM: "I think he'll get a lot of money. I just don't think he'll get a real long-term deal. I think somebody might gamble on giving him two years, at $18-20 million a year. But I can't see anybody going longer than that."

"Except this guy - he's probably pretty good. I bet it was Huntington."

The other two clubs we surveyed didn't see it that way, however.

"I think he'll find some team that will give him what he wants," said an official of one small-market club. "And if he can't, I think he'll stay out there 'til he gets it."

"I bet he gets $15-20 million a year for three or four years, especially if he keeps his nose clean and helps the Dodgers win it," said another executive who has worked for large, small and middle-market teams. "Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if [Dodgers owner] Frank McCourt would do that. He loves all those Boston guys."

"Finally, sanity..."

But within seconds of making that prediction, the same executive made it clear how appalled he was by the whole thought that Manny would cash in after all this.

"He wouldn't play for me," the exec said. "I'll tell you that. I might cost my team a chance to go to the World Series. But we work too hard to put a team together to take on a guy like that. As soon as you open the vaults for him, you'll wind up with the same problems Boston had."

"Oh good grief...My favorite quote ever, 'I might cost my team a chance to go to the World Series.' How the blue hell does that man have a job?"

The Dodgers, of course, haven't experienced any of those problems -- yet. Oh, they had a chuckle-filled Manny Moment the other night, when the ninth inning almost started without their left fielder joining in on the festivities. But other than that, the Dodgers' visit to Planet Manny has been one big happy carnival of line drives, tough at-bats and cha-chinging cash registers.

"Yea, sure can see why no one would want him. All he does is play amazing baseball and make people want to come to the stadium."

It's a wonderful little portrait of how much fun it can be to have this guy around when he feels like going with the program. He can be lovable. He can be a good teammate. He's one of the half-dozen greatest right-handed hitters who ever lived. He can even run to first base on days when the constellations line up correctly.

"Ooooh, sick burn Stark!"

But after what went on in Boston last month, what should we make of it when this Manny shows up in Southern California? Is this the real Manny? Or is this just part of his new hit-the-lottery marketing campaign?

"Fair question. I would counter that by saying when Manny is being Manny, he's still better than 99% of the league."

You watch him mash in Chavez Ravine these days, and he looks like a guy who has decided to hit about .700 the rest of the season. But if he really thinks that pushing his "on" button for two months will make teams more interested in handing him $100 million this winter, he might just have it backward.

"If this is true, and Manny has a button, he has the greatest 'off' of anything, ever. Machine or human."

"It makes me less interested," one NL executive said. "Not that I'd have been interested in the first place. He's going to turn it on to get a contract. But once you give him that contract, he's going to turn it off. And then all you've got is a headache every other week."

"See Above. It's just ridiculous. Jayson Stark just shattered the all-time record of saying the same thing eleventy billion times in one article."

So will teams line up this winter to volunteer for that headache, knowing what they know -- and knowing the kind of behavior they might be encouraging? It will be fascinating to watch, all right. Will there really be a team dumb enough to give this man his four years and $100 million, just months before his 37th birthday?

"If there is, it's somebody stupid," the same executive warned. "And he'll probably get fired a year later for doing something stupid. I don't think Manny should get more than a one-year deal the rest of his career. And anybody who gives him more deserves what they get."

"Truly amazing production with a baseball bat. That's what he gets you. This was a lot of fun, I should do it again sometime."

No doubt. But does the whole sport deserve the consequences? That's the real question every team should weigh before it empties its checking account for the inimitable Manuel Aristides Ramirez.

"Oh wait, one more 'paragraph.' Yes, I deserve to watch Manny Ramirez swing the bat, because it is fucking awesome to watch. Thanks for asking Jayson!"
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Post by Marlins »

I take it you have some free time at your new job there...
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Post by Yankees »

I'm usually in at about 8 in the morning...this got written at 8...which is funny in that I totally forgot to send it...
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Post by Royals »

I've been a pretty staunch Manny defender, but at the point the deal was made, I was glad. And I still am. His antics were out of hand and the fact you could make a very good case for him dogging it by sitting out games in order to get his option dropped so he could hit free agency. Fuck his OPS, that's just wrong. Barry Bonds wrong.
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Post by Giants »

I don't think anyone is arguing that Jason Bay is the player Manny is, but at the end of Manny's time in Boston Manny wasn't the player Manny was either. A lot of Manny's OPS improvement can be linked to small sample size, and the rest can be linked to switching to the National League, but it is very realistic to think Manny will put up stupid numbers the rest of this year in his last contract push. To me this situation is analogous to when the Lakers traded Shaq. To put it bluntly Shaq was a fat sack of shit who wanted to be paid like he was still a superstar. The trade to Miami fueled his desire to be a superstar again and suddenly he was motivated and playing like a superstar, but there was no was nothing the Lakers could have done to get him playing like a superstar in LA. Manny needed this trade to motivate him to hit like Manny, there was nothing the Red Sox could do to coax this performance out of him the rest of the way (though he probably would still OPS .900 and be a good cleanup hitter), so they get that a reasonable approximation of that in Bay without the hassle at a savings of more than 10 million dollars. It definitely sucks and is an overall minus for the Red Sox that the Manny situation ended like it did, but they got out of the situation as well as they possibly could have (actually I think that getting Hermida/Stanton from Florida and keeping them would have been better than Bay, but that's just me).
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Post by Yankees »

Here's the thing though - you never get back the value that you trade in the circumstance. The Lakers were still a team in contention when they traded Shaq, and it took them a good few years to get back.

Manny's ops FOR the Red Sox was .927 - and that was with all his BS. If he played on a push for a contract, I'd have to think he'd put up pretty good numbers - like he's doing now. The Red Sox have a better chance to win the WS with him as opposed to without him. Your job as a GM is to put your team in the best possible position to win the World Series - Bay over Manny does not do that.
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Post by Giants »

But Manny wouldn't have been playing to push for a contract with the Red Sox, if he absolutely kicked ass then all they had to do was pick up his option for 2009, then he'd have to kick ass again, and then they'd pick up his option for 2010 and then he'd have to kick ass again to hit free agency and at that point he'd be 38, so it was not in his interest contractually to kick ass for the Red Sox.
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Post by Yankees »

Awesome - then the Red Sox trade him in the off-season. Obviously they wouldn't have picked up his contract to play for them. Trading Manny hurts their chances at winning a World Series THIS YEAR. If you have a chance to win the World Series, your A #1 objective should be to win the World Series. The Red Sox are CLEARLY a World Series contender, and that trade has weakened their chances of winning - I'm going to have a hard time hearing the debate against that.
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Post by Giants »

I have a hard time seeing how a .016 drop in OPS along with a boost in fielding hurts the WS chances. Josh Beckett seemingly being down a notch from last year, whether Lowrie is the answer at SS or if Lugo will do anything useful, and the issues in middle relief are all far more important to the Red Sox World series chances than the difference between a multi-time All-Star in left field vs. a Hall of Famer.
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Post by Yankees »

Manny Ramirez - Red Sox: .927 ops
Jason Bay - Red Sox: .856 ops (40 points less than his ops for the Pirates, too, I might add)
Difference: 71 points

Also, Manny Ramirez plays a FAR superior Fenway to Bay this year. I've watched every Red Sox game I can (f'ing NESN, no YES), and I've seen Bay misplay the Monster multiple times. Manny had the wall down PAT. Bay is a better defender away, for sure, but Manny is a better defender at Fenway.

So, I'm not sure better defense in half the games and a 71 point drop in OPS is anywhere close.
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Post by Giants »

Major sample size issues in those stats, plus learning new pitchers (plus if you want to argue the OPS I'll point out that his OBP has jumped 22 points, and Moneyball tells us that OBP is worth 3x as much as SLG, so the relative value of his OPS is roughly unchanged, as if a 61 AB sample size is even worth considering that closely). It's certainly not an ideal situation, and I don't think anyone is arguing that Bay is Manny's equal from a talent perspective, but there was a cost to Manny's bullshit; I can say from personal experience that nothing destroys a locker room faster than someone faking an injury, and once his knee started "acting up" against ace pitchers with a clean MRI they had to get him out of there and fast. Now he's in LA where any attention is good attention and good riddance, the crap with the knee this year crossed a very important line.

I agree with you that improved clubhouse attitude is generally hugely overrated (remember I live in a town where the local team decided that "clubhouse attitude" was not only going to replace a 1.045 OPS but would also improve the team by 10-15 games), but when the clubhouse cancer goes from being a douchebag to being a douchebag who has an injury that flares up whenever he sees Kazmir warming up in the bullpen there is a major problem. Remember that Manny has Boras as an agent now, and Boras saw dollars, so this was just the beginning of his quest to get out of Boston, see Owens, Terrell circa 2005 for an instructive example (and TO is from all reports a quality human being when out of persona, no such reports about Manny). When a guy as good as Manny makes it a point to sabotage the team so that he can get out then getting rid of him is absolutely worth 70 points of OPS from one spot in the lineup.
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Post by Yankees »

Ok, if we can't talk about those sample sizes, how about a season's worth?

Manny - .316/.414/.564 (includes games in ultra-unfriendly Dodger Stadium)
Bay - .289/.378/.511

You seem to be missing my larger point. If Manny takes 3 games off the rest of the season, the Red Sox will still probably make the playoffs - and it's not like he's going to play half-assed in the playoffs. If he did that, he'd be Barry Bonds-style blackballed.

Manny playing half-assed for the majority of the season (still on pace to play 154(!) games this year), was still significantly better than Bay out there - and the defense is negated by the home/away.

As some point, whether Boras or just cold realization, Manny would have put his shit together and played - there's precedent here. Even playing half-assed (at .927), his ops would have been good enough for 19th(!!!) in baseball.
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Post by Giants »

You just killed your argument, because being with or without Manny was pretty immaterial to their playoff chances this year based on the composition of the division and all of the Yankee injuries. But there are costs to clubhouse dysfunction, and there is a major difference between an asshole in the clubhouse who no one likes and an asshole on the field. Suppose Manny decides to sit every game against just Halladay and Kazmir down the stretch that could be as many as 6 games. Factor in that at the time of the deal the Sox didn't know that Joba was going to be out, if Manny sat Joba's starts it could be closer to 9 games. That's a lot of tough games for one of your best players to decide to sit out. Like I said, this wasn't a case like Barry Bonds (who should absolutely be playing for the Rays right now), who just wants to be arrogant and superior to everyone else, this was a guy actively trying to sabotage his team. Remember how well that paid off for TO, someone would have paid for Manny's talent whatever he did at the end of the year.
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Post by Yankees »

Huh? I'd probably rather have Manny in the playoffs then Bay.
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Post by Cardinals »

Sorry - anybody that says Bay here is just drinking the Boston ownership Kool aid.
12, 14, 15, 17, 22
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Post by Giants »

In a vacuum you're right. But have you ever been in a dysfunctional professional locker room?
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Post by Yankees »

Yea - the Red Sox had the same crap going with Manny last year and they won the World Series. They've also won the World Series around Manny's antics prior to that as well.

If my vacuum won me two world championships, even if it was spotty at times, I'd at least keep it around for the playoffs - and give my team the BEST POSSIBLE CHANCE TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES.

If you can construct some sort of numerical argument to explain how the Red Sox are better off with Bay, I'm all fucking ears. Bring in FRAA, or VORP, or something - I don't buy, "Everyone's just happier, so we're better off." This ain't basketball. This ain't football. That shit don't fly in baseball.
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Post by Giants »

Again, let me reiterate, when Manny blew off the Yankee game and treatment it was different from the old Manny being Manny. This wasn't the first time he'd been a distraction, it wasn't even the first time he'd blown off a key Red Sox/Yankees game. The key difference? Scott Boras. Throw money/contract stuff into the mix and suddenly the whole dynamic changed. Manny (or more importantly Boras) was absolutely prepared to sabotage this season for the purpose of getting Manny out. We don't know what private conversations occurred between the team and the agent, but I'm sure Boras said something along the lines of "this is just the beginning" and the Red Sox organization knew this was different and had to get him out of there. Again, if they could have just kept Manny and played him and gotten that production all season then of course he'd be better than Jason Bay, but the manner in which the trade got done suggests that the Red Sox had good reason to believe they would not get that level of performance from Manny this year. Shit, they traded Manny plus two MLB ready players for Bay, no one believes that's close to fair value for Manny's bat if he's playing.
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Post by Guardians »

Read this from Rotoworld. After reading the back and forth debate going on here, I figured the irony of the writeup was fitting.

Jason Bay-OF- Red Sox Aug. 18 - 10:24 pm et


Jason Bay homered twice, racking up four RBI in the Red Sox' 6-3 defeat of the Orioles on Monday night.

Bay finished 3-for-5, but his other hit was just a single. The Sox must've been pretty upset. Thankfully the rest of the lineup showed up. David Ortiz drove in a run with a double that scored Dustin Pedroia and Jason Varitek hit his 9th home run of the season. Bay is hitting just .348 with his new team and has driven in 16 RBI in 16 games. The Sox have to be doubting this guy's ability.
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Post by Yankees »

With Manny being Manny the Red Sox were still comfortably in a playoff spot.

Are you telling me that Manny would have sat out in the playoffs with a "tired hamstring"? Or a series at the end of the season with the playoffs on the line? Not a snowball's chance in hell. I don't even buy anything post-trade deadline. Once the trade deadline passes, Manny's f'd for the season.

Until I see some sort of compelling information showing why this deal helps the Red Sox, I'm going to thank God that the Red Sox opened the door for the Yanks.
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Post by Giants »

The door for the Yankees slammed shut when it became clear that Joba was out of the rotation (no I don't buy that he's more valuable out of the bullpen) and Wang wasn't going to come back in September. That's why the Ramirez trade was immaterial to the Red Sox chances. Bay will do a reasonable approximation of Manny's production and the team doesn't have to deal with the mental grind of the day to day Manny bullshit, and even worse the media scrutiny of it. This situation was well on it's way to Terrell Owens/Eagles levels, and while I don't believe Manny would have sit out an entire key series with the playoffs on the line I do believe that he wouldn't have sold out on defense or running the basepaths, and I do believe he would have taken key games off. As the Green Bay Packers have learned, you cannot let a player hold your organization hostage.
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Post by Pirates »

you might be the only person in america who thinks the redsox got the best end of the deal. Manny has been a Yankee killer for so long. Yankee fans are beyond thrilled that they don't have to face him in that lineup anymore. Manny has far more potential to do damage then Jason Bay. You keep saying that Manny is holding the organization hostage and taking plays off and not running the bases. But exactly when has that cost the Redsox a chance to win the world series since hes been there? I think in fact as Z mentioned above its won them 2. Any team would take Mannys antics and 2 Championships in 5 years then a team with no player problems and 0 championships.
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Post by Yankees »

Ok, I'm sorry - then I'm calling complete bullshit here. If Manny vs. Bay is immaterial for the rest of the season - then it's not even a decision. Manny WOULD have played in the playoffs. Bay is not good against lefties - so that's a massive disadvantage, in probably multiple games, in a series, vs. the White Sox, Devil Rays, Twins, AND the Angels.

And how did the Packers teach us this? They made the NFC Championship Game last year and should have won with Favre holding them 'hostage' last year. Then they forced their best player into making a retirement decision before he was ready and will suffer for it this year. Strahan held the Giants hostage UNTIL BASICALLY THE FIRST GAME OF THE SEASON last year and they won the Super Bowl. What the fuck is the precedent of a player holding a team hostage and it affecting the success of the team?

Manny's only leverage was acting like an asshole until the trade deadline. After that, he was only screwing himself. Trust me, Boras is smart enough to know that.

The Red Sox, in the playofs (assuming as we are, that they make it) are FAR better with Manny then Bay. There is no way to approach this statistically where it even comes close to making sense. Manny playing half-assed IS SOLIDLY BETTER THAN Bay.

The Red Sox did this move for 2009 - that's the only possible explanation. And I'm saying that's bullshit - if you can win the World Series, you play to win the World Series.

There is still no argument that, after winning 2 championships with his shenanigans, Bay is statistically superior to Manny. If you want to show me that route - PLEASE.
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Post by Giants »

Royals wrote:Ok, I'm sorry - then I'm calling complete bullshit here. If Manny vs. Bay is immaterial for the rest of the season - then it's not even a decision. Manny WOULD have played in the playoffs. Bay is not good against lefties - so that's a massive disadvantage, in probably multiple games, in a series, vs. the White Sox, Devil Rays, Twins, AND the Angels.

There is still no argument that, after winning 2 championships with his shenanigans, Bay is statistically superior to Manny. If you want to show me that route - PLEASE.
You're first statement is phenomenally stupid. First of all, Bay has certainly struggled against lefties this year but his 3.5 year split against lefties (ESPN.com shows 2005-2008, not sure why) is .948 OPS, that's not terrible. Even ignoring that basic fact that an extra 30 seconds of research would have told you, your whole point made no sense. You granted that Manny vs. Bay was immaterial for this season, then proceeded to argue that Bay was a disadvantage this season. But if Manny vs. Bay is immaterial then by definition there is no significant disadvantage to having Bay in the lineup over Manny and what should make the decision is in fact what would be best for 2009.

Over and over again I've said that there isn't a statistical argument to be made that Jason Bay is better than Manny Ramirez on his own (though I'm sure someone better versed in fielding stats could make one, I saw several when Manny first went on the DL claiming that the difference between Manny's offense and having a Crisp/Drew/Ellsbury defensive outfield would roughly balance out, though I'm not sure I buy those arguments because of how well Manny played left in Fenway).

But let's look at the composition of this team for a moment: To win a World Series you need at least two elite hitters (even the ridiculous 2006 Cardinals had Albert Pujols (1.102) and Chris Duncan (.952) in your lineup. This year JD Drew is hitting at en elite level (.930 OPS), and that level of improvement plus Bay is actually more productive than the Manny/Drew corner outfield from last year. You also have Kevin Youkilis making a 114 point leap in OPS putting him in the same category as Drew from the right side. It's not so much Bay as Youkilis's improvement that offsets losing Ramirez. Hell, even Sean Casey has a .400 OBP working. My point? Offense is not the issue for the Red Sox, and that the difference between Ramirez and Bay offensively is not significant to the team's World Series chances. More importantly, your argument depends on the assumption that Ramirez would continue to perform for the Red Sox at the level he has for the rest of the season. I'm arguing that he would not, based on my experience in dealing with troublesome agents and ugly contract/locker room situations. Pulling Manny from the lineup and replacing him with Brandon Moss would absolutely have a major impact on the team's World Series chances. Replacing him with Jason Bay and factoring in the improvement of a number of hitters from last year's World Champions does not have the same impact, and the downside risk on Manny was huge.

I'll pick up the Packers point later, the argument is more complicated and I don't have the time to write it out, but the essential point is that in the MLB it doesn't make sense to put up with that sort of crap if you have an unlimited payroll. (No, this is not an invitation to call bullshit on this short summary, if you really care I'll write it out some time tonight).
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