Inside the Numbers

[Yankees]

Closing in on 1/3 of the way through the season, time to check on some statistical anomalies across the IBC:

Pittsburgh Pirates: JP's team is currently 4 games on the wrong side of .500, and 10.5 games out of first - but was it too early to throw in the towel? A look inside the numbers shows he has a run differential of +19. With no teams really seperating themselves in the WC race, I might have given this a few more weeks before tossing in the towel. Keeping in mind JP's relievers haved saved 8 of 15 chances, and his hitters are sporting a very modest .723 ops - you'd think he might hold on to see if the numbers turn in his favor.

Gut feeling: If I were JP I would have waited a few weeks before throwing in the towel.


Washington Nationals: The following should scare the absolute poop out of Vacek. The Nationals have a run differential of +31, yet sit squarely on .500. Not only that, but they just gave up absolutely nothing to get a pitcher who is one of the most effective in the IBC this year - going from a pitcher's park to a pitcher's park. AND Bruce, Diaz, Crisp, and Beltre are all under-performing. The addition of Westbrook and Myers to the rotation would seem to make these guys really tough - that and if they can get that unsightly .318 obp up.

Gut feeling: This team is going to start performing to their run differential REAL soon. Dan should be worried that he only has 2.5 up on them at this point.

Philadelphia Phillies: One game over .500 and only 2 games back in the East should be a massive relief to Nick at this point. Why? Because his run differential is an astonishingly bad -54. In a game where the ultimate goal is to "outscore" your opposition, in only 47 games Nick's been outscored by 54 runs. Wow - a look into his lineup and bullpen show the real story. The team is sporting a gawdawful .314 obp with Vtek, Ramon, Berkman, Grudz, and Werth all having amazingly bad years. The team's bullpen has 1 (!!!!!!!!!) reliever with an ERA under 4.50, and has blown 33% of their save opportunities.

Gut feeling: Another reason for Dan to worry. This team is WAY too good in their starting pitching and offense to have this type of run differential. The starting pitching has kept them in this thing, and that hasn't even really overperformed, merely performed to slightly better than expectations. The NL East is shaping up to be an absolute dogfight.

Minnesota Twins: Now this team scares the crap out of me. Andrew's team is 6 games over .500, and within 3 of my Royals, AND have been outscored by 11 runs this year. Now, here's where the numbers tell two different stories. The team has a ghastly .402 slg % - but this team is not built on offense. There is a potential that this is as good as it gets for the O - and if they keep not putting up the runs, that might catch up to them. They also have a very rough 4.76 era for a team built on pitching and defense. Jered Weaver has kept them in a lot of games, but his ERA will probably get a spike soon. That said, Billingsley and Blackburn are supporting 6.70 and 5.80 era's respectively - and both of those should plummet.

Gut feeling: When Andrew's pitching comes around, and if Brett's team can find some pitching - I'm in for a REALLY long season. I've got one of the best records, and run differentials in the league and I'm only 3 and 4 games up respectively. Ugh...

Toronto Blue Jays: They are only here because a run differential of +129, a team OPS of .902, and a team ERA of 4.04 with ALL of your starters underperforming warrants mentioning. This team may only get scarier - and that's a scary notion.