Drafting for GM-less teams

[Marlins]

Hey guys, I know in the past we've just had empty teams pick by actual draft order. I think this is a mistake. Many sites do dynasty lists of guys available to our draft (for example, https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... r-players/). I think using this list as the list to go by for LAA (assuming we dont have a GM for it by the draft) is a no brainer. I know there are other lists like this (I think BP has one too?) so which list we go by could be up for discussion, but any of these lists 100x better than going by draft order.

Reasons for:
-No one can argue the actual draft order is by any means a list of actual talent. Teams pick signability guys earlier to get better talent later, some teams just suck, etc.
-Could argue list of high to low bonus $ amt a better representation, but again some high school guys get paid more than they should to be signed away from a college commitment and some seniors get less than they should because they have no
-Also, going by draft list means you are completely excluding all international guys from consideration

Reasons against (I think these are all bull. Let me know if there is a legit reason):
-We did it by draft order last year
-Everyone wants to stick worse guys on the team with no GM, get better guys available for their own picks

Open for discussion if anyone has anything to add, but I think this should be implemented for this year's draft.

[Mariners]

This is NOT something you change with less than a month to go before the draft. You want to discuss it for 2022, go crazy, have fun.

[Marlins]

Why not? The only difference would be the team might get better players you were hoping would fall? Any legitimate reason?

[Mets]

I am opposed to this -

The only legit reason is the international players portion. Especially this past season with only 5 rounds - you didn't have as much of the budget manipulation as you have in the past.

Also, it is almost impossible to be objective when it comes to amateur drafting for another team. Part of this fun is having the sleepers, etc. How can anyone manage their own draft board while being honest in assessing what is best for another franchise?

Draft is not a perfect science. Even guys who are budget picks in the early rounds wind up making teams top-10's all the time.

Josh Naylor
1.12 in 2015 draft.
2.2M (under slot guy)
ranked on both Marlins and Padres top-10 lists, however got passed over in many draft because he signed an underslot deal and was considered to be lesser value. 7 Other guys picked in the first round of that draft that got paid equal or more draft bonuses haven't even played in the majors yet (and most will not ever).

[WhiteSox]

Agree with Mets / Mariners here.

[Yankees]

It's a worthy discussion around the international portion. Just not for 2021.

[Mets]

I think the best scenario would be for a committee to take the top 10-15 Int'l guys and fit them into the current draft order somehow (maybe based on FV?) That was they aren't getting bypassed by any Autopicks.

Technically, this could be done for 2021 if a group of 4-5 wanted to form a quick committee and meet on it.

[Yankees]

I think the best scenario would be for a committee to take the top 10-15 Int'l guys and fit them into the current draft order somehow (maybe based on FV?) That was they aren't getting bypassed by any Autopicks.

Technically, this could be done for 2021 if a group of 4-5 wanted to form a quick committee and meet on it.

Yea...I take mine back. This is a good idea to take a stab at. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work...but at least worth thinking about.

[WhiteSox]

Very hard to come up with new draft rules one month before we are supposed to draft.

At this point I would argue any changes can only be made for our draft in 2022.

Lot of questions on who gets to be on this committee, how we rank them (lot of subjectivity here), etc

[Yankees]

Right...and if it doesn't work it doesn't work. But I see no harm in exploring, person with two high picks.

[WhiteSox]

Never said it couldn't be explored and discussed, just don't agree with the timing on implementing something that big right before a draft that is about to start.

Any draft picks that changed hands were already done under the old rules as well.

[Mets]

Fortunately, it's not often that we even have vacancies during the draft in this league but worth exploring the rules for when we do.

Best case scenario would be to fill the opening before the draft and the point is moot.

Since the Int'l rankings on 16 year old's is quite a bit more subjective we can make it easy and just go strictly by bonuses. There isn't any budget manipulation going on when signing Int'l guys. It's just a matter of seeing where they would fit in throughout the first two rounds. Honestly speaking, if they aren't good enough to be drafted in the first two rounds, perhaps we don't even need to go any further with it.

[Rockies]

I don't see why this is such a big deal, give the team the BPA - who cares if its from an agreed upon dynasty list vs the actual draft order? The spirit of the thing is the same, and does the league a better service long term.

[Guardians]

I don't see why this is such a big deal, give the team the BPA - who cares if its from an agreed upon dynasty list vs the actual draft order? The spirit of the thing is the same, and does the league a better service long term.

I don't think that's the argument. Everyone (I think) agrees we need to make a pick. I don't know if this BA list is an annual feature. While I agree the draft list is often influenced by bonus numbers, I think it's the least subjective option for the league.

[WhiteSox]

Why is the BA list better than the BP list or the Fangraphs list? Opens up a lot of subjectivity on what player is perceived to be the “best available”

[Rockies]

Why is the BA list better than the BP list or the Fangraphs list? Opens up a lot of subjectivity on what player is perceived to be the “best available”

So take dynasty rankings from those 3 publications if they have them, and average them and use that.

[Reds]

I could see looking at changing this for 2022, but not for this year.

[WhiteSox]

I could see looking at changing this for 2022, but not for this year.

Yup.

[Rockies]

We all agree that if vacancies are filled it's a moot point right? Because that GM would theoretically take the BPA anyway.

The draft is weeks away still, this can be done in time, and the only thing it does is make a vacant team more attractive to incoming GMs - plus serves weaker teams better.

All the "we can't implement until next year" just reeks of greed.

[Guardians]

We all agree that if vacancies are filled it's a moot point right? Because that GM would theoretically take the BPA anyway.

The draft is weeks away still, this can be done in time, and the only thing it does is make a vacant team more attractive to incoming GMs - plus serves weaker teams better.

All the "we can't implement until next year" just reeks of greed.

As an owner with three second round picks, I am 100% motivated by greed here.

[DBacks]

Typically, I think the reason you wait until next year to implement is to make sure short-term concerns aren't taking precedence. With only one open team (I think), this isn't a big issue IMO.

When changing a rule, you want to have a specific repeatable method to encode as the new rule, and I'm not sure there is one here. Has BA done this FYPD list every year? Is it OK to use a list which is behind a paywall? If we are using an average of multiple lists, are THOSE lists released every year and updated, etc? (A list released now is more valuable than one updated 4-6 months ago obviously) Is it even a given that these lists are better than the actual draft order (other than that int'l players are included); after all, the MLB teams are privy to more information than these folks generating lists...

Just some questions - I don't really care either way.

[Giants]

I hate the idea of discretion (e.g. a committee). I don't think that choosing a major outlet's ranking rather than the draft order is a terrible idea. If we use a list like Fangraphs' or BA's I don't think we have to worry about a comprehensive best choice, the criteria should be "is this not stupid, readily available, and clearly better than raw draft order". This doesn't sound like something to overthink, I think it's foolish to pretend like if the ExCo said we're using BA's Dynasty list instead of the draft order it would significantly alter anyone's draft strategy. As long as you know the list that's being used it's trivial to figure out if your guy is going to make it to your next pick or if he's getting snapped up by the "AI" GM. If the list is behind a paywall I think that sharing the raw list on a google sheet (just name and rank order, no other information) is ethical given that piecing BA's prospect rankings together is possible by google search and team specific blog combination. Any scouting information or commentary should stay behind the paywall.

[Mets]

I don't have a BA subscription - does it include foreign signings? I still think that's the real big issue here opposed to the raw draft results.

[Rays]

I don't have a BA subscription - does it include foreign signings? I still think that's the real big issue here opposed to the raw draft results.

The BA Dynasty list does include international signings, currently has Ha-Seong Kim at #3, with others mixed in throughout. The list does only go to 100.

[Guardians]

The list goes to 100 and includes all prospects, not just draftees, so it is limited and wouldn't work past the first round. I'm not sure FG combines lists of international and MLB draftees, so that makes it tough. I completely get the idea of moving past draft pick order alone in these situations, but it would almost have to be some kind of matrix between lists and that requires they all come out on time (before our draft) and we figure out how to mold rankings and FVs into some kind of formula, in my opinion. And I don't think we need to do that a few weeks before the draft. Presumably, people have factored trades (either buying, selling, rejecting) based on who is likely to fall into place with the expectation of highest drafted going to the vacant team.