IBC

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 4:53 pm

If they don't release a projection disc this year (it's been rumored by the local yokels on their message boards), then what do we do? I mean i'm sure it's only a 2% possibility, if even that, but it is pretty silent for no reason from DMB camp and they aren't replying to anybodys email it seems. It's probably premature to discuss this but I'm very bored between classes right now.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 5:13 pm

If they don't then I'd say we use ZiPS for this season (though I'm not fond of their projections) and start a dialogue on what to do for next year.

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:04 pm

My concern on Zips would be that there's no splits and also that they've already been out, yet guys have been making moves based on the prospect of simming off something else, not zips.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:44 pm

It's not as though we'd have any other alternative. PECOTA would be ideal IMO, but I'm not putting all those numbers in. Even dividing it among 30 people it would be a huge task.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:57 pm

Based selfishly on the fact that several of my players were severely screwed in the ZIPS projections I would oppose using them, I understand that there are leagues out there that use some sort of proprietary projections that combine a few, perhaps that would be something we could use the affiliate money for?

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:58 pm

DMB is coming out on April 4 so its moot

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Fri Feb 29, 2008 12:01 am

Except that the season starts March 25, H2H Bren, you'd better be there.

Dodgers · Post by **Dodgers** » Fri Jan 23, 2009 1:50 pm

Thoughts on this again? We might have to poll the league for some ideas.

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 9:33 am

How does it make any sense for them to come out with a new version in February and then no projection disk? How are the going to sell any copies of the new version of the game before the fall/winter if they don't supply anyone with the motivation to buy it. I'm sure that the projection disk is a bit of an undertaking, but they have lots of options (working with any number of guys who already put out projections, for example). I just don't see the sense in it from a business/marketing standpoint if they do in fact produce the new version.

We should definitely have a backup plan; it just doesn't make sense to me.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Feb 25, 2009 5:56 pm

Nevermind what I said last week about there not being anything to do. If Jagger is indeed right that there will be no projection disc, we're going to have a very tough decision to make. I have emailed Diamond Mind asking if it's true, and if there will be a third party disc that they will sponsor or recommend. I have also e-mailed baseball prospectus, basically pleading for them to figure out a way to get PECOTA into projections as a DMB file.

That said, our options will be limited. We can go with ZiPS, which he says he will be using splits and such this year so that will be very helpful and useful and not make those projections so worthless.

We can try to come up with our own weighted projections, taking PECOTA, ZiPS and MLB/MiLB numbers and seeing what they turn out looking like and manually create our own database, or we can just do the same just with PECOTA and not weighted stuff.

For 2009, I would lean towards ZiPS if there is indeed enough data available in the disc. If there's no splits and ratings and such, then I will not support using that disc. If there is, I think our best bet may be biting the bullet there for a year and hoping DM and Prospectus get something worked out that will allow PECOTA to go into DM. I know last year, that was the plan before they broke off their partnership. Maybe DM will reconsider now that they're deciding to shit the bed on us.

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Sun Mar 08, 2009 7:35 am

RedSox wrote:If they don't then I'd say we use ZiPS for this season (though I'm not fond of their projections) and start a dialogue on what to do for next year.

Flash forward a year ... Good news: Bren is no longer on ExCo*.

Bad news: No DMB projections ...

I spent some time going through Zips Build #2 this morning - still no splits to speak of but what else do we have? Anybody hear anymore from Clay?

*He wrote that quote on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 6:13 pm ...

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Sun Mar 08, 2009 1:00 pm

I've heard nothing from Clay or BP. I'll shoot them another e-mail today.

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:44 am

There is one more build coming for Zips. It appears that Dan Szymborski will add a bunch of the guys ... guys who got DMB projections last year but didn’t show up in his Build 2 databaseas well as a few guys who did not play last year, signed minor league contracts for 2009, and are now attempting comebacks.

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:48 am

WhiteSox wrote:There is one more build coming for Zips. It appears that Dan Szymborski will add a bunch of the guys ... guys who got DMB projections last year but didn’t show up in his Build 2 databaseas well as a few guys who did not play last year, signed minor league contracts for 2009, and are now attempting comebacks.

But no mention of more splits?

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:18 pm

With ZiPS having splits for only a handful of guys, including Jack Wilson and Trot Nixon, while excluding players like Ramirez, Sizemore, Mauer, Hamilton, the entire IBC Tampa Bay Rays. DBacks, Orioles, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Astros and Angels lineups, I've concluded that they are God awful.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:20 pm

I have no idea what kind of a solution we could come to. Do we bombard the ZIPS guy with emails asking for splits on everyone? Since he ain't replied to any emails from y'all, I doubt that does much. Without having splits, this has the potential to be a crappy season

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:27 pm

Reading through Dan's postings, it's pretty clear there won't be splits.

"All hitters and pitchers that have enough sample size for their platoon split differential from league-average platoon split are given estimated platoon splits based on their career differentials. This is an ongoing debate and I feel that this is the most honest way to do projected splits - the sample size needed for projectability is actually quite high. Andy Dolphin has surmised something in the 3-4K range and I’ve verified that on my own independently (relief pitchers tend to have wider swings so you’ll see a lot of pitchers here that are short of the normal sample size threshold with projected splits, like Schoeneweis and Bradford.

...you'd probably be disappointed if you're looking for surprises in the hitter's splits - it takes a pretty established career to demonstrate splits that are all that different from generic differentials. It's mostly hitters with unimpressive "

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 8:35 pm

Should we even consider a switch to OOTP this year? I mean, it would be a drastic change, but I just fear we will lose a significant amount of interest with these shitty databases. Playing H2H sucks with them too. I've played a game vs Aaron and two vs. Jake. It's pretty silly. I'm not sure how the event tables are configured, but, in my game vs. Aaron I drew one walk in 13 innings and there wasn't even a 3 ball count until the 6th inning- let alone a walk. When I played vs. Jake both times he had a ton of wild pitches, but his pitchers suck.

I just have my doubts about a disc that is for all intents and purposes incomplete. I sent an e-mail to Diamond Mind today asking if they could at least fill out the ZiPS database- which would go a LONG way to helping I think. I've yet to hear back from Baseball Prospectus and that's sort of annoying.

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:26 pm

Having bought OOTP 9 a few months ago and messing with it some and given the lack of exposure to its newest versions by our GMs, I think we'd be lost trying to use it this year. It is very different from DMB, pretty involved, and there are things that it won't let you do that DMB does that I think are pretty significant.

Having said that, I definitely think that we need to be informed about its capabilities and be ready to potentially use it next year, particularly if you can import stats as I suspect that you may be able to.

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 5:47 am

Pirates wrote:Should we even consider a switch to OOTP this year?

... I just have my doubts about a disc that is for all intents and purposes incomplete. I sent an e-mail to Diamond Mind today asking if they could at least fill out the ZiPS database- which would go a LONG way to helping I think. I've yet to hear back from Baseball Prospectus and that's sort of annoying.

No - it is too late in the season to introduce new technology. Perhaps next year, although other people advise me that they do not like it as well as DMB.

Zips is going to have to be the base - there just isn't anything else available.

Pirates wrote:One idea I do like, in terms of sort of combining databases, would be to take the season discs' park factors and use them in our projections, sans Yankee Stadium and Citi field. It seems that ZiPS were really lazy with park factors and for a lot of parks its exactly the same on lefties and righties. Thoughts on this?

Ideas like this are good and bonafide. We are at the point that we just have to start building a base with the final Zips build augmented with little tidbits like this.

I would also suggest that if we come up with ideas like this let's look at in ExCo, make a decision on the suggestion and move forward accordingly. This is not to say that we can't consider suggestions from outside ExCo but let's do as much of this "disc thought" internally and then turn out the best product we can.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 1:19 pm

At what point do we 'officially' go with ZiPS do you think? It's looking more and more like PECOTA isn't an option...I've had no emails returned the past two weeks from Diamond Mind or Prospectus. Very disappointing given that I have put money into both products/websites.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 6:34 pm

Go ahead and make the accouncement. There's no other options

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Fri Mar 13, 2009 10:55 pm

Pirates wrote:At what point do we 'officially' go with ZiPS do you think? It's looking more and more like PECOTA isn't an option...I've had no emails returned the past two weeks from Diamond Mind or Prospectus. Very disappointing given that I have put money into both products/websites.

I don't see much reason at this point to not go ahead and say we're going with zips unless something really surprising happens (and theoretically the league overwhelmingly supported making that change). I also think that we can go ahead and have the waiver draft pretty soon.