Top 100 Prospects: The Best of the Best
by Kevin Goldstein
1. Jay Bruce, of, Reds
2. Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
3. Evan Longoria, 3b, Rays
4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
5. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
6. David Price, lhp, Rays
7. Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays
8. Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
9. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
10. Cameron Maybin, of, Marlins
11. Rick Porcello, rhp, Tigers
12. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles
13. Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies
14. Andy LaRoche, 3b, Dodgers
15. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays
16. Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Red Sox
17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves
18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays
19. Mike Moustakas, ss, Royals
20. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks
21. Joey Votto, 1b, Reds
22. Daric Barton, 1b, Athletics
23. Chase Headley, 3b, Padres
24. Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates
25. Reid Brignac, ss, Rays
26. Carlos Gonzalez, of, Athletics
27. Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels
28. Chris Marrero, of/1b, Nationals
29. Angel Villalona, 3b, Giants
30. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers
31. Matt LaPorta, of, Brewers
32. Chin-Lung Hu, ss, Dodgers
33. Jeff Clement, c, Mariners
34. Ian Kennedy, rhp, Yankees
35. Ross Detwiler, lhp, Nationals
36. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
37. Geovany Soto, c, Cubs
38. Brandon Wood, 3b/ss, Angels
39. Matt Antonelli, 2b, Padres
40. Jacob McGee, lhp, Devil Rays
41. Johnny Cueto, rhp, Reds
42. Manny Parra, lhp, Brewers
43. Steven Pearce, 1b, Pirates
44. Chris Tillman, rhp, Mariners
45. Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs
46. Fautino de los Santos, rhp, Athletics
47. Austin Jackson, of, Yankees
48. Jose Tabata, of, Yankees
49. Eric Hurley, rhp, Rangers
50. Brett Anderson, lhp, Athletics
51. Fernando Martinez, of, Mets
52. Adam Miller, rhp, Indians
53. Justin Masterson, rhp, Red Sox
54. J.R. Towles, c, Astros
55. Carlos Triunfel, ss, Mariners
56. Gio Gonzalez, lhp, Athletics
57. Jed Lowrie, ss, Red Sox
58. Elvis Andrus, ss, Rangers
59. Jordan Walden, rhp, Angels
60. Ryan Kalish, of, Red Sox
61. Matt Latos, rhp, Padres
62. Engel Beltre, of, Rangers
63. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Braves
64. Gerardo Parra, of, Diamondbacks
65. Carlos Gomez, of, Twins
66. Scott Elbert, lhp, Dodgers
67. Alan Horne, rhp, Yankees
68. Carlos Carrasco, rhp, Phillies
69. Chris Perez, rhp, Cardinals
70. Brandon Jones, of, Braves
71. Bryan Anderson, c, Cardinals
72. Luke Hochevar, rhp, Royals
73. Michael Main, rhp, Rangers
74. Chris Davis, 3b, Rangers
75. Chorye Spoone, rhp, Orioles
76. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brewers
77. Taylor Teagarden, c, Rangers
78. Wes Hodges, 3b, Indians
79. Deolis Guerra, rhp, Twins
80. Chris Nelson, ss, Rockies
81. Michael Burgess, of, Nationals
82. Greg Reynolds, rhp, Rockies
83. Gorkys Hernandez, of, Braves
84. Henry Sosa, rhp, Giants
85. Radhames Liz, rhp, Orioles
86. Jair Jurrjens, rhp, Braves
87. Aaron Poreda, lhp, White Sox
88. Chris Volstad, rhp, Marlins
89. Hank Conger, c, Angels
90. Max Scherzer, rhp, Diamondbacks
91. Casey Weathers, rhp, Rockies
92. Dexter Fowler, of, Rockies
93. Wladimir Balentien, of, Mariners
94. Neil Walker, 3b, Pirates
95. Michael Bowden, rhp, Red Sox
96. Joe Savery, lhp, Phillies
97. Ben Revere, of, Twins
98. Trevor Cahill, rhp, Athletics
99. Chris Carter, 1b, Athletics
100. Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox
Goldstein's Top 100 Prospects - 2008
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Notes from the chat ...
... On the whole, how does this year's to 100 talent stack up compared to years past? Do you see any interesting changes in talent distribution worth noting?
Kevin Goldstein: I think overall it's a down year for prospects. We've seen a lot of really good young players reach the majors in the last two years, and the talent to replace them, prospect-wise, just isn't there. Last year, when doing the Top 100, I had probably 60 guys I really, really liked. This year, that list ended in the 40s.
... Any regrets on last year's list or does some amount of acceptable error always enter into any process no matter how well refined?
Kevin Goldstein: Sure, there are always going to be mistakes. Last year's list had two major ones, and both were makeup related, on both ends of the spectrum.
1. Dustin Pedroia
2. Justin Upton
... Are you implying that you ranked Pedroia too low considering his great makeup and Upton too high considering his bad makeup? If so, what's wrong with Upton's makeup?
Kevin Goldstein: On Pedroia, yes. On Upton, while it's clearly in his past, his effort level in 2006 here in the Midwest League stunk, no doubt about it. And I dinged him too hard for it, because his raw talent is borderline historic.
... I am always surprised about the NL-AL breakdown % among top 100 prospects. They almost always are ~50:50 (Yours is 53 AL to 47 NL). Is there any intent behind this or is this really just always how most lists break out? I guess, I am looking to see if there has ever been a decided advantage in one year or a period of time. Realistically, this split seems to really favor the AL being that they have 2 less teams and 6 more prospects. Can a lot of this be attributed to the A's-D-backs and Mets-Twins trade?
Kevin Goldstein: I certainly never considered it, and had no idea it was that close until you counted. So now intent, it just broke that way. Clearly the AL side of the ledger got a nice boost from those two trades, but a few guys went the other way too during the winter meetings
... tell me the one guy on this list who you think is the most controversial placement (whether above or below the general consensus), and then defend your ranking of him.
Kevin Goldstein: I'm still here! So far, based on the chat questins and my email, the answer are.
1. Jacob McGee at 40. Again, that says he's the 4th best LHP in the minors, so it's not shabby at all. Questions about his secondary stuff hurt him.
2. Clay at 2, Joba at 4. Obviously, with those rankings, I think both will be great, but Buchholz has the better all-around arsenal, better command, and Joba still has some dings on his healthy history. Mostly this is just the superfan subset of Yankees fans bitching becuase a Red Sox guy is ahead of a Yankee guy.
3. Lars Anderson at 100. He's a first baseman who's hit, but hasn't mashed. I just don't see it, and scouting views I've gotten just like him and don't love him. There is also an aspect of the superfan subset of Red Sox fans bitching because thier guy is lower than expected.
4. Travis Snider in the single digits. I don't get why this is surprising
... ________ is ranked _________ !! You're crazy! He deserves to be much higher, you just don't like him beacuse you hate my home team / have an east coast bias / have a west coast bias / dont know what you're talking about (pick one).
Kevin Goldstein: Exactly. I have 640 questions still in the queue, and 100 or so are a version of this.
Kevin Goldstein: That's a good place to end after 3.5 hours of chatting goodness.
Kevin Goldstein: I think overall it's a down year for prospects. We've seen a lot of really good young players reach the majors in the last two years, and the talent to replace them, prospect-wise, just isn't there. Last year, when doing the Top 100, I had probably 60 guys I really, really liked. This year, that list ended in the 40s.
... Any regrets on last year's list or does some amount of acceptable error always enter into any process no matter how well refined?
Kevin Goldstein: Sure, there are always going to be mistakes. Last year's list had two major ones, and both were makeup related, on both ends of the spectrum.
1. Dustin Pedroia
2. Justin Upton
... Are you implying that you ranked Pedroia too low considering his great makeup and Upton too high considering his bad makeup? If so, what's wrong with Upton's makeup?
Kevin Goldstein: On Pedroia, yes. On Upton, while it's clearly in his past, his effort level in 2006 here in the Midwest League stunk, no doubt about it. And I dinged him too hard for it, because his raw talent is borderline historic.
... I am always surprised about the NL-AL breakdown % among top 100 prospects. They almost always are ~50:50 (Yours is 53 AL to 47 NL). Is there any intent behind this or is this really just always how most lists break out? I guess, I am looking to see if there has ever been a decided advantage in one year or a period of time. Realistically, this split seems to really favor the AL being that they have 2 less teams and 6 more prospects. Can a lot of this be attributed to the A's-D-backs and Mets-Twins trade?
Kevin Goldstein: I certainly never considered it, and had no idea it was that close until you counted. So now intent, it just broke that way. Clearly the AL side of the ledger got a nice boost from those two trades, but a few guys went the other way too during the winter meetings
... tell me the one guy on this list who you think is the most controversial placement (whether above or below the general consensus), and then defend your ranking of him.
Kevin Goldstein: I'm still here! So far, based on the chat questins and my email, the answer are.
1. Jacob McGee at 40. Again, that says he's the 4th best LHP in the minors, so it's not shabby at all. Questions about his secondary stuff hurt him.
2. Clay at 2, Joba at 4. Obviously, with those rankings, I think both will be great, but Buchholz has the better all-around arsenal, better command, and Joba still has some dings on his healthy history. Mostly this is just the superfan subset of Yankees fans bitching becuase a Red Sox guy is ahead of a Yankee guy.
3. Lars Anderson at 100. He's a first baseman who's hit, but hasn't mashed. I just don't see it, and scouting views I've gotten just like him and don't love him. There is also an aspect of the superfan subset of Red Sox fans bitching because thier guy is lower than expected.
4. Travis Snider in the single digits. I don't get why this is surprising
... ________ is ranked _________ !! You're crazy! He deserves to be much higher, you just don't like him beacuse you hate my home team / have an east coast bias / have a west coast bias / dont know what you're talking about (pick one).
Kevin Goldstein: Exactly. I have 640 questions still in the queue, and 100 or so are a version of this.
Kevin Goldstein: That's a good place to end after 3.5 hours of chatting goodness.
