DMB coming to an end.

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Wed Feb 25, 2009 9:27 pm

Zips may be the easiest and fairest way to go because it is already in the works and it doesn't require us to make judgement calls on projections and ratings which could lead us down the road of endless arguing.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Feb 25, 2009 9:34 pm

Nationals wrote:Zips may be the easiest and fairest way to go because it is already in the works and it doesn't require us to make judgement calls on projections and ratings which could lead us down the road of endless arguing.

Totally agree with this. Also I agree with what Shawn said if we are to come up with our own methodology for future years, we need to start that in April or May.

Mariners · Post by **Mariners** » Wed Feb 25, 2009 9:45 pm

Another 'bright side' is Dan seems to enjoy what he does and communicates well with the public.

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=121115370388

Jeremy wrote at 10:21am on February 5th, 2009
Dan, any chance of getting OPS+ and ERA+ listings for the early projections (Dodgers and back) on BBTF?

Dan wrote at 10:29am on February 5th, 2009
Jeremy, I didn't start calculating OPS+ and ERA+ for projections until midway through. I may go back and do that at the end, but at the moment, my priority is getting the final spreadsheet and the projection disk out before the end of the month.

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Rob wrote at 6:26pm on February 10th, 2009
I'm surprised that no one else has bugged when this year's dmb zip file will be out? So... when will this year's dmb zip file be out?

Dan wrote at 10:55am on February 11th, 2009
Soon! I'll have the first build out as soon as I'm done projections

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Connor wrote at 7:29pm on February 18th, 2009
Dan! When are the remaining teams coming?/About how long does it take you to do a whole team?

Dan wrote at 7:13pm on February 19th, 2009
Connor, I was away from my main computer for a week, so there are a number of remaining projections to post - they should filter in pretty quickly now.

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Ben wrote at 7:23am
Dan - Any chance we will see a defensive rating at 2B for Skip Shumaker. He is a personal favorite and one of the more compelling stories in spring training for me. I hope he is one of the players that is treated to splits after hitting .348 against RHP and .168 against LHP...watching him is the definition of a platoon player. There really is no good reason to ever send him up against a LHP.

--I like that last type of question and can't wait to see the reply.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Feb 25, 2009 10:01 pm

And i'm now in that group

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Wed Feb 25, 2009 11:34 pm

Got a reply from BP.

"Hi, JP. We may be able to help you. Clay Davenport believes that he'll be able to provide you with PECOTA in Diamond Mind format. Since we're not formally participating with DM, this is really not on our priority list but he may have something for you next week. Will that work for your timing? As we know more from Clay, we'll pass it to you."

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 2:23 am

Pirates wrote:Got a reply from BP.

"Hi, JP. We may be able to help you. Clay Davenport believes that he'll be able to provide you with PECOTA in Diamond Mind format. Since we're not formally participating with DM, this is really not on our priority list but he may have something for you next week. Will that work for your timing? As we know more from Clay, we'll pass it to you."

This is awesome if it works out. I'm bummed DMB isn't putting out a proj disk, but if we have the options of pecota and zips I think we're in decent shape. If zips has splits, and pecota does not, I think we should consider using zips, but otherwise prefer pecota. Once we have a plan for this year, we should immediately consider our options for future seasons in terms of projections (our own? some method of choosing between a few?). I do think we should probably freeze FA signings for now, then have a waiver period once we know what data set we're gonna use for this season.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 2:36 am

Can we combine PEcota projections with zips splits? Not sure what type of project that would be, but...

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 2:52 am

I imagine that combining the data in Excel or some such program would be fairly easy, though it would be a bitch for players who were only projected by one system, but the question is how does one get that data into a DMB format?

Padres · Post by **Padres** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 5:33 am

Marlins wrote: I do think we should probably freeze FA signings for now, then have a waiver period once we know what data set we're gonna use for this season.

I agree ...

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 10:05 am

WhiteSox wrote:
Marlins wrote: I do think we should probably freeze FA signings for now, then have a waiver period once we know what data set we're gonna use for this season.
I agree ...

Me too

RedSox · Post by **RedSox** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:00 am

2009 Projection Disk
We regret to announce that we are not able to produce a 2009 Projection disk this year. It became clear towards the end of 2008 that with the projects on Luke's schedule, unexpectedly producing the 2008 season disk on his own for the first time, working on version 10, the 2009 online game development, and special projects, that he would be spread too thin to also produce a 2009 Projection CD. We tried to find a partner who would be interested in producing one in conjunction with Diamond Mind but, with everyone's schedules and timing, that plan has not worked out.
We know that many of you are disappointed that we cannot produce the projection disk this year. We will try our best to produce one next year, either on our own or with a partner.
We encourage you to use Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection, available on or around March 1, 2009 for free here: www.bbtf.org. Dan is happy to help with any transition issues you may have with leagues using his ZiPS projection and you can contact him directly at dan@baseballprimer.com.
Version 10
Testing on Version 10 begins in March and once we have a few rounds of that completed, we'll be able to determine a release date and will let you know when you can start ordering it.
Office Hours
Those of you who have been long-time customers of DMB may remember that during the slower season for the office, Carol (my predecessor) would work part-time. Starting March 2, I am going to do the same thing. Orders will be processed daily as usual. For those of you who call the 800 number, if you call when I am not here, please leave a message and I will return it or pass it along to the proper person. Be sure to leave your name, phone number and whether you need tech support or have questions for me. Don't worry, when Version 10 comes out, I'll be here to process those orders!
Remember, you can contact us by email, info@diamond-mind.com.
Thanks (and we're sorry to disappoint you!),
Pat and Luke

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 2:35 pm

No wonder they can't get a projection disk out. From the sound of it, they have like 3 to 5 people working for the company.

BlueJays · Post by **BlueJays** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 2:38 pm

Also, sounds like version 10 won't be out for a while.. So are we still using version 9c going forward?

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:27 pm

Athletics wrote:I imagine that combining the data in Excel or some such program would be fairly easy, though it would be a bitch for players who were only projected by one system, but the question is how does one get that data into a DMB format?

this is actually one of my problems with DS. I've tried communicating with him on several occasions to ask how he gets his projections into DMB and he's been 100% non-responsive.

Nate, I can't speak for anyone else, but I've told DMB that if they don't produce a projection disk, then i won't purchase any of their future products and will recommend the same to others. I was all for the switch to v.10 before. Now... Fuck 'em.

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:37 pm

I e-mailed DMB last week to inform them that I would not be buying V10 if there was no projection disk.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:42 pm

Yeah, I don't think I'll be buying V10 without a projection disc either. Saves me money, sends a message, and subsequently saves you all some money.

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:42 pm

RedSox wrote:Nate, I can't speak for anyone else, but I've told DMB that if they don't produce a projection disk, then i won't purchase any of their future products and will recommend the same to others. I was all for the switch to v.10 before. Now... Fuck 'em.

Tough call for me. I bought a new version of the software last year (or maybe the previous season), but I'd like to know what the improvements in v10 are because they may be good enough for me to overcome my displeasure. Like if they fix the computer mgr's use of LOOGYs etc.

Do we know if they plan to permanently eliminate projections from their product, or if they'll continue to try to get a partner to provide numbers? EDIT: Yes we do. Read the string.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:52 pm

From what I've seen about V.10, there aren't any major functional changes. i'd go looking for the listing of changes, but at this point, i don't care any more. I'm really pissed at DMB.

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 4:00 pm

Pirates wrote:Yeah, I don't think I'll be buying V10 without a projection disc either. Saves me money, sends a message, and subsequently saves you all some money.

Agreed. I sent them an email last night telling them I wasn't going to be purchasing V10 and wasn't going to be purchasing any more disks if they stopped producing their projection disk.

I can go with whatever the league wants to do on a system.

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 6:40 pm

I'm no expert with DMB, but they've been heading this direction for years, with reduced functionality, etc. We have made the switch to OOTP about 2 years ago in the CBA in anticipation of the day when DMB no longer exists. We used a custom DMB file in the past, but with each new version it became harder and harder to customize things to our liking. Don't ask me how Bryan Walko (CBA founder back in the mid 90's) created a DMB file, because I don't know, and he's usually pretty tight lipped with his programming. I'm sure Shawn can do something for us, as his programming skills are very impressive, but it's not realistic and unfair to expect that on such short notice.

A couple of points I would like to make:

1. For the 2009 season, I think using the ZIPS DMB file is the easiest and safest route to go.
2. Depending on the response from BP, we could also use Pecota.
3. Using a combo of the two will result in alot of problems I think. If we have 2 options, we vote and choose only one for 2009.
4. Going forward, we need to make a decision on whether to continue to use DMB. Even with custom databases, it will become increasingly harder to work with DMB, and they are going a different direction. If we decide to switch to another sim engine, we can begin to make changes for the future without being forced to make any last minute adjustments.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 6:57 pm

I'm not that familiar with OOTP (outside of the old version 5 they gave away years ago when I was able to have kids and draft them). What are the differences with DMB (in terms of transactions, H2H, and that sort of thing)?

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Thu Feb 26, 2009 7:14 pm

Athletics wrote:I'm not that familiar with OOTP (outside of the old version 5 they gave away years ago when I was able to have kids and draft them). What are the differences with DMB (in terms of transactions, H2H, and that sort of thing)?

No idea between the differences. I've read some of the OOTP manual, and it seams like a very capable sim engine, and we've been happy with our results. We don't have any H2H games in the CBA, so I've never used OOTP for anything more than playing around with a trial version to check it out.

We have one guy in the league who handles the sim, and Bryan just creates all the DB's and sets up all the files.

My feeling is that this year it's the projection disk that doesn't come out....who knows, when they come out with V10 that may be the last we hear from DMB. I just think we need to determine a sim engine for the future, and from there, we have many options as to how we would like to create a DB for the league.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Fri Feb 27, 2009 6:58 pm

I looked at OOTP when i first set up the league with Nils (along with one or two other programs) and DMB simply provided more detail and control than OOTP or any other game, by quite a lot. Granted, this was 7 years ago now and DMB has been in a steady decline, so maybe OOTP has caught up.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Fri Feb 27, 2009 7:02 pm

So, I'm looking at OOTP now... 3 words... Online League Management. While I personally don't think a switch right now for the coming season would be prudent, giving the program a long look over the next few months doesn't seem like a bad idea.

Rangers · Post by **Rangers** » Fri Feb 27, 2009 9:18 pm

RedSox wrote:So, I'm looking at OOTP now... 3 words... Online League Management. While I personally don't think a switch right now for the coming season would be prudent, giving the program a long look over the next few months doesn't seem like a bad idea.

Yeah, at the very least it is probably in our best interest to investigate it. I bought the program a few months ago, and I don't know what it was like a few years ago, but there are some good features. I haven't used it enough to have a really good feel for it yet though.