Reds needs

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:33 am

A defensive catcher who can hit a little, would need to be an upgrade over Navarro who is AV defensively and zipped at an 84ops+.

A closer who doesn't walk a ton of hitters.

A young starting pitcher with some upside who is usable this season.

Offensive upgrades anywhere, lefty or switch hitters preferred.

Available are;

SP Javy Vazquez - looks like he will be back.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/2528/javier-vazquez

OFr Chris Heisey - nice 260/313/441 zips, but would prefer lefty/switch.

SP prospects - Tapia, Conley, Mazzoni, Rogers, Houser, Reed, Garrett, Hutchison.

Also would consider dealing some OF depth (like Heisey, Scheirhotz, etc) for prospect(s).

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Fri Jan 04, 2013 9:31 pm

Vazquez tonight with several scouts in attendance went 6 innings, allowed 3 singles, no runs, and k'd 4. He was reportedly consistently around 93mph, while occasionally touching 95.

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 10:36 am

Add the Mets to the list of teams looking at Javy. My hope is he ends up with the Nationals, real nice fit.

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:56 am

Reds wrote:Add the Mets to the list of teams looking at Javy. My hope is he ends up with the Nationals, real nice fit.

do you believe everything you read?

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:28 pm

Not. Especially the Mets part because he wants to go to a contender, which they are not.

Doesn't much matter where he signs, he'll be an above average SPr regardless.

Mets · Post by **Mets** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:08 pm

I read something saying he's looking at a +97 ERA in an neutral park

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:10 pm

Sounds about right, average for SP is 94-95 I think. Reliever 108 is AV

RedSox · Post by **RedSox** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:41 pm

Reds wrote:Sounds about right, average for SP is 94-95 I think. Reliever 108 is AV

It was your question Ken.

Dan Szymborski‏@DSzymborski on 12/21
@Ken015 Has him ERA+ of 97 in neutral park (projected 107 if he had played in 2012)

Average SP has been 96 ERA+ for a while.

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:52 pm

I know it was, and it is about right. I'm working don memory as I can't access twitter at work.

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:54 pm

Was the 96 part of Dan's reply?

RedSox · Post by **RedSox** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:13 pm

No. That is from Dan over to BBTF when someone said in 2011 it had moved to 97 ERA+ for SP and 107 ERA+ for RP.

DS responded:
"I use 5-year averages for starter/reliever, so it's still 96/108"

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:20 pm

Reds wrote:Was the 96 part of Dan's reply?

Pretty sure he responded to something and said in was now 94 or 95 for SP, and still around 108 for relievers, though that was close to declining as well. I checked most of the fangraphs replies, but can't access Twitter until I get home late tonight.

RedSox · Post by **RedSox** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 6:17 pm

MLB ERA was 4.01 last year. In order for the ERA+ of SP to drop they would have to perform less well versus the league number. Starters posted a 4.19 ERA as a whole in 2012, which I believe is 97 ERA+ and the 3.67 that RP posted is 108 ERA+. For 2011 MLB ERA was 3.94, starters 4.06 and RP 3.69 ERA. Which should be 97 ERA+ and 107 ERA+. Using a 5 year rolling average there would have to be a big crash by SP in 2012 combined with the year being dropped(2007) being an outlier as well. 2007 had MLB 4.47, SP 4.63, RP 4.19 so that looks pretty normal 96/107 though.

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 6:23 pm

RedSox wrote:MLB ERA was 4.01 last year. In order for the ERA+ of SP to drop they would have to perform less well versus the league number. Starters posted a 4.19 ERA as a whole in 2012, which I believe is 97 ERA+ and the 3.67 that RP posted is 108 ERA+. For 2011 MLB ERA was 3.94, starters 4.06 and RP 3.69 ERA. Which should be 97 ERA+ and 107 ERA+. Using a 5 year rolling average there would have to be a big crash by SP in 2012 combined with the year being dropped(2007) being an outlier as well. 2007 had MLB 4.47, SP 4.63, RP 4.19 so that looks pretty normal 96/107 though.

Thanks for the analysis, that obviously means it's still 96 for SPrs. Saved me from looking for something that's not there. Clearly I was mistaken.