Early Season Run Differential

[Yankees]

It's REALLY early, but run differential is never a bad conversation piece - here is run differential by league, and then teams that are overperforming, and underperforming at their numbers:

Divisions (toughest to easiest):
1. AL East - +13.4 per team
2. NL West - +12.4 per team
3. AL Central - +2.8 per team
4. NL East - -5.0 per team
5. NL Central - -15.0 per team
6. AL West - -20.3 per team

This would probably look somewhat "right" if the NL West and NL Central were flipped. Surprising starts in both divisions - going in opposite directions.

AL East:
Overperforming - Everyone above .500 looks about right, though Toronto having the 2nd best rd in the IBC and being in second place by 4.5 games just seems wrong.

Underperforming - Tampa has a bad rd, but not a 37% win % bad one.

AL Central:
Overperforming - Again, no one seems to be "overperforming," though you wonder with injuries and trades, how long Minnesota can stay within striking distance of KC, and ahead of Detroit.

Underperforming - Both Detroit and Chicago are underperforming pretty solidly against their rd's. While Chicago may not be a contender THIS year, they should not be under .500 best on their 0 rd right now. Detroit should probably be 2 back, not 5 back, thanks to some tough losses. This will work itself out sooner than later.

AL West:
Overperforming - Seattle is the first team we see that is definitely overperforming against their rd. Their -11 should put them a solid 2-3 games under .500, as opposed to 1 over.

Underperforming - Even though Oakland's in first, they should probably be 4-6 games over .500, as opposed to 3. If these early season rd's keep up, it's pretty easy to imagine Oakland sprinting away from the division by the All-Star break.

NL East:
Overperforming - It's not often a team can have a 1.5 game lead over a team they being out rd'd by 32 runs, but that's where the Mets are at - 4 games over .500, 1.5 games out of first, 1.5 games ahead in 2nd, and with a -17 run differential. Either the team is better than this, or there is a big losing streak on the horizon.

Underperforming - The Nats have a solid rd of +15, yet sit in 3rd place, only 1 game over .500. If they keep up the rd, expect their next 29 games to be solidly better than their last 29.

NL Central:
Overperforming - My pre-season pick to be a suprise, the Cubs, got screwed by SIM's before the season, and have pretty much pulled the plug on 2009 - as their rd would indicate. However, the team sits 1 game over .500 despite their -16 rd. It's a long season - interesting to see which direction this tree falls.

Underperforming - Also at 15-14, the Pirates have a run differential of only +8. While that isn't really "under"-performing, it is when you look at who they're tied for the division with. The team has plenty of pitching, but is going to have to figure out how to score some runs if they are going to make a run at a WC.

NL West:
Overperforming - Against their rd, the Padres are CLEARLY overperforming. However, against the talent they have on their roster, this team is pretty solidly underperforming.

Underperforming - The Dodgers and D-Backs both have worse records than their corresponding rd's say they should have. I see this division flip-flopping and seeing every team make a 30 game run towards the top spot. On a player for player basis this is, without question, the most even division top to bottom.

[Mets]

Actually I put in my mop up pitchers when I feel I can no longer win games to save my pen arms. I'm sure there are a couple of lopsided games to off the numbers, but it has do to with my management style more than my talent.

[Yankees]

Huh? You've had only 3 games where you've given up 10 runs or more, and each of those games was within 4 runs. So either your "mop-up" guys are doing quite well, or it might be SOME management - but it's MOSTLY luck. Take it man - if you think your team is better than that run differential, and your in position WITH that run differential, you should be golden from here on out.

Run differential is the purest and quickest form analysis that we have - it's not perfect - but it's the best combination of offense/pitching/defense we've got.

[Cardinals]

After my 1-6 start I've gone 16-9...

[Tigers]

AL West:
Overperforming - Seattle is the first team we see that is definitely overperforming against their rd. Their -11 should put them a solid 2-3 games under .500, as opposed to 1 over.


Takes about 2 seconds to figure this one out. Win total IS a bit high given the current run differential (Must be all the extra money I paid in the offseason to steal Sweet Lou back from Chicago) which is being caused by my projected #1 hitter (Ethier) currently sitting on a robust line of .176/.252/.227 and my projected best starting pitcher (Burnett) sitting on a 1-4 record and a 5.77 ERA.

Now some of that is offset by Ankiels hot start (obviously), however Ankiel's power isn't really as surprising as his high average is tracking above his projection. With him headed to the DL, now would be a good time for Ethier to decide to show up for the season.

I figured from the beginning this roster should track to about a .500 season, slightly higher or lower depending on injuries and random outcomes. My target is the 2010 season when Adam Jones and Asdrubal Cabrera come into their own in the SIM.

[Royals]

.500 might win you the ALW...

[RedSox]

So I've won more games than my rd would indicate and I'm underperforming? That doesn't make any sense.

[Tigers]

.500 might win you the ALW...

Sad but true.

[Orioles]

No complaints here.

Despite the run diff, I'm feeling pretty fortunate to be leading the division while Washington, Philly and NY keep dealing for useful pieces. The rest of the division keeps smartly adding pitching depth while I sit on the pile of corpses that used to be my rotation and hope somebody that has SP with a pulse falls far enough out that they don't need a live body in return (or at least don't need a live big-leaguer).

[Nationals]

AL Central:
Overperforming - Again, no one seems to be "overperforming," though you wonder with injuries and trades, how long Minnesota can stay within striking distance of KC, and ahead of Detroit.

Underperforming - Both Detroit and Chicago are underperforming pretty solidly against their rd's. While Chicago may not be a contender THIS year, they should not be under .500 bst on their 0 rd right now. Detroit should probably be 2 back, not 5 back, thanks to some tough losses. This will work itself out sooner than later.

It's all about the #1 defense in the league. I'm not expecting to win it all, but this is a pleasant surprise.

[Yankees]

So I've won more games than my rd would indicate and I'm underperforming? That doesn't make any sense.

No, I was saying your run differential wasn't good, but it's not as bad as your record is. There was no clear underperforming team in the East, so you were the closest.