Trades

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Mon May 12, 2008 3:03 pm

OK. And I will state this for the people in the cheap seats.

I
AM
SHOCKED
THAT
YOU
FORM
SAID
OPINION
ON
A
RIDICULOUSLY
SMALL
SAMPLE
SIZE.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Mon May 12, 2008 3:08 pm

I'll give it to you - that was pretty funny. 45 ip's is, traditionally, 25% of pitcher's season - even a slight fall-off from a 0.81 era and a 0.60 whip would be All-Star worthy.

I'm also using the 2005 season and his MILB career as precedents to show that - when right - Cliff Lee is capable of very big things.

Royals · Post by **Royals** » Mon May 12, 2008 3:42 pm

You're ignoring that YOU CITED GAMMONS. When you cite someone as a source or justification in an argument you're tying the credibility of your argument, and yourself, to that source. When you cite something that is blatantly WRONG, guess what happens to the credibility of your argument? Guess what happens to your own credibility when you cite someone you know is completely wrong? It doesn't matter how much Gammons loves the game. He hasn't been insightful in at least 5 years.

Citing minorleague results for a guy who is 29 is pretty freakin weak too. That's a major stretch.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Mon May 12, 2008 4:07 pm

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/5 ... e-cy-young

The important question to ask yourself when judging a half season like the one Cliff Lee has had is what's different? Lee's 2005 was probably something of a mirage, as his xFIP was high (that's a fun stat that basically shows how much a pitcher was helped by great fielding), and his BABIP was .277, which is low and also an indicator of regression (league average is around .300), which definitely happened in 2006 and 2007. This year Lee's BABIP is .189, so he's definitely been somewhat lucky. On the other hand his xFIP has been much lower, so there has definitely been some improvement. The big key seems to be that he's throwing his fastball more and he's throwing it from a different arm slot according to that article. Sometimes adjustments work, and that seems to be the case thus far for Lee. He's obviously not going to keep this up all year, but an ERA under 3.00 is totally reasonable. Let's not waste bandwidth arguing about Peter Gammons, let's actually examine the guy, who I'm happy to have out of the AL West.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Mon May 12, 2008 6:04 pm

You're ignoring that YOU CITED GAMMONS. When you cite someone as a source or justification in an argument you're tying the credibility of your argument, and yourself, to that source. When you cite something that is blatantly WRONG, guess what happens to the credibility of your argument? Guess what happens to your own credibility when you cite someone you know is completely wrong? It doesn't matter how much Gammons loves the game. He hasn't been insightful in at least 5 years.

Citing minorleague results for a guy who is 29 is pretty freakin weak too. That's a major stretch.

All I was saying was that someone of tremendous respect in the game of baseball made this statement. Was it wrong? Sure it was - I sure as shit never thought Lee was better then Santana. I like Gammons, so I still tend to listen when he talks. You don't - no big deal there.

Also, citing minor league facts isn't irrelevant at all. The majority of successful MLB players have successful minor league careers. It's an indicator of future ability. It's certainly not a tell all, but it most certainly is an indicator. Lee's minor league stats seem to point to someone with great potential at the MLB level. His stuff had that potential too. Put those together and you've probably got a pretty damn good baseball player.

Pirates · Post by **Pirates** » Mon May 12, 2008 6:18 pm

Just like Bryan Bullington right?

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Mon May 12, 2008 6:22 pm

What, exactly, about the word INDICATOR do you not understand?

Have great minor league baseball players flamed out in the pros? Fuck yea...

But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that more good minor leaguers become good pros then crappy-to-mediocre minor leaguers who go on to become good pros...

Has a historically mediocre minor leaguer become a good pro? For sure - but the odds certainly aren't in his favor...

If you can't admit that minor league stats are a good INDICATOR of future ability (one of a handful of indicators that include raw talent, maturity, etc.) then we are going to start a MAJOR argument.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Tue May 13, 2008 9:06 am

Another disastrous start for Lee last night - DOUBLED his year total in walks, and had an unsightly 1.00 whip for the game...

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Thu May 15, 2008 9:00 am

Pirates trade
Jason Isringhausen, , , , , , ,
to Rockies for
Manny Acosta, , , , , , ,

Whatever...

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Fri May 16, 2008 8:29 am

Giants trade
Bobby Crosby, , , , , , ,
to Brewers for
Felipe Lopez, , , , , , ,

Three years ago this would have been a blockbuster - now it's a trade of one disgruntled SS for the other. I think the upside on Crosby is still a bit higher then Lopez, but I'm not sure I really see either panning out at this point.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Sat May 17, 2008 5:38 pm

Dodgers trade
Derrick Turnbow, Carlos Ruiz, Matt Murton, Russ Springer, , , ,
to BlueJays for
Mark Reynolds, Jonathan Meloan, , , , , ,

The push for the future for Shawn starts here. The Blue Jays get a lot of help for this year, Shawn gets two solid players - just can't quite get a handle on how good Reynolds actually is.

Athletics · Post by **Athletics** » Sun May 18, 2008 9:46 pm

6 runs, five earned...to the Reds?

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Sun May 18, 2008 9:48 pm

The Reds can hit, and pitcher can't throw 32 good games - I saw the 1 walk as another positive...even without his best stuff he kept his command...speedbump...

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Sun May 18, 2008 9:53 pm

I watched the game, the wind was blowing out which helped with the Votto homer. The runs he gave up in the 5th were just well placed ground balls, though Carroll should've caught Janish's line drive for the 3rd out, which would've gotten him outta the inning not allowing a run

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Tue May 20, 2008 5:36 pm

Nationals trade
Carlos Quentin, , , , , , ,
to Giants for
Brett Myers, , , , , , ,

This trade is interesting on a lot of levels. Let's count them:

1) Nils is leading his division: Now call me crazy, but usually winning teams try to win their division. Brett Myers has an excellent SIM- as a pitcher. And he was traded for a terrible SIMing Quentin - a hitter.

2) You know, there's really only one level - ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN THE PLAYOFFS - SO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS!!! JB is playing with the greatest lineup in the history of baseball, and he's only won 1 WS in 6 years.

But I understand, Brett is pitching terribly for Nils this year. He's 7-1 with a 2.25 era, allowing 39 hits (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) in 72 innings (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!).

To add a slight hint of a Yogism to the Herman Edwards classic: "When you're winning the game you play to win the game."

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Tue May 20, 2008 5:45 pm

I was also fascinated by this trade. Factor in the loss of Andruw's defense in center with his impending trade, and there's no chance that a pitcher with Myers' projection comes back for Andruw. Really interesting move.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Tue May 20, 2008 5:52 pm

An absolutely fantastic point Jake - Why on earth offer Nils anything at this point? It's going to force Nils to just dump him at the deadline.

Why on earth wouldn't Nils have kept battling until the deadline, have Myers value be at an all-time high and at least seeing where you stood? If he falls out you can get rid of both Jones and Myers. If he doesn't he hangs on and gives a go at becoming the first IBC 2x WS winner.

Marlins · Post by **Marlins** » Tue May 20, 2008 6:03 pm

My thinking was I was replacing Myers with Lackey. And, I agree, no one should trade me anything that will help me this year for Andruw. That's not what I am looking for anyway.

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Tue May 20, 2008 6:16 pm

Giants wrote:My thinking was I was replacing Myers with Lackey. And, I agree, no one should trade me anything that will help me this year for Andruw. That's not what I am looking for anyway.

I figured that's what you were thinking in dealing Myers now for a solid future piece like Quentin. Probably a solid idea to deal Myers now before his value gets any lower from his rough MLB season thus far. Maybe he turns it around at some point, however May isn't looking so good for him.

The Peavy thing might throw a bit of a wrench into the plan, but I can see the logic with Lackey returning.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Tue May 20, 2008 6:27 pm

Terrific point about Lackey and why you can't evaluate deals in a vaccuum. Woulda been nice to throw out that 1-2-3 punch though.

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Tue May 20, 2008 6:30 pm

I knew on Lackey - why on earth would you want to go away from that 1-3? It would make it incredibly hard to beat you in that division...

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Tue May 20, 2008 6:45 pm

Especially in that ballpark.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Tue May 20, 2008 7:13 pm

I'm on board with the rest of these guys. Good pitching is tough to beat, especially in a short series. If Nils gets in the playoffs with that 1-2-3 punch he'd be really tough to beat. Now, he's beatable

Yankees · Post by **Yankees** » Tue May 20, 2008 7:19 pm

Royals trade
Todd Helton, John Bale, , , , , ,
to Yankees for
Sean Casey, Randy Johnson, , , , , ,

This was a tough trade for me to do. Helton has given a lot to the Royals - and we appreciate his service. My thought was that his ops was .681 this year, and I could get at LEAST that from Casey. If I got that, my offense remains on its torrid current pace.

My two big questions - Is Bale making it back any time soon? How long can Bob Cramer stand up? The questions made it easy to pick up Johnson and his very solid SIM #'s. I've never won a division, you only live once, and even if Johnson retires I've still got a Carmona/Escobar/Saunders/Jurrjens/Hill rotation for next year.

RJ, with Kazmir back, is a relief pitcher, and Helton gives him outstanding lineup flexibility. Each of us traded from strength (Royals and offense, Yanks and starting pitching) to fill in a weaknesses.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Tue May 20, 2008 8:01 pm

I'm not so sure about this one. It's definitely a win this year move, but like you said Helton fills a big hole for JB and he wasn't using RJ, which basically means he gets to add Helton to his lineup for free (I'm guessing as a platoon with Sheffield, which basically adds 150 points of OPS to the strong side of the platoon). That makes him that much harder to beat this year, not sure if adding RJ to your rotation makes up that difference. And from the rest of the AL, a big fuck you