All The Guardians Trades

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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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382. Freddie Freeman, Logan O'Hoppe, Raisel Iglesias, Brayden Taylor to New York (NL) for Jose Ramirez, Salvador Perez, Jesus Baez, New York (NL) Draft Pick 3

It's always fun and challenging to work out a blockbuster. John reached out after my most recent trade block with a wild, 12-player offer with a number of pieces. It was an interesting concept that served as a basis of our discussions, which centered around Freeman and Ramirez, obviously. We both recognized that Ramirez, based on position and age, was going to be the prize player in the deal, so we started with how to get to him.

Freeman, after a red hot start, has cooled to a 134 wRC+, which still puts him in the top 25 among current MLB hitters. The tough thing is Freeman is hitting .282/.360/.472 for me, so I'm removing a key piece to the offense. I'm hopeful Ramirez performs better for me than he did for John in his home park. Ramirez, as of this writing, is 141. So, Ramirez is a notch above, but Freeman is one of the best pure hitters in the league. Beyond the offense, Ramirez is better across the board. And after losing Paredes likely for the season, picking up a 3B would turn out to be a helpful get.

John wanted O'Hoppe and offered back Perez, which represents about a decade difference in age. After I had started discussions with Dave about Yainer Diaz, this part of the trade became much easier to include. O'Hoppe, like Freeman, started off on an insane pace this year and then has hit a cold streak. The upshot, however, is that he's probably going to end up with 25-30 HR as a 25-year-old catcher. He needs to work on his defense to really thrive, but he's been a middle order bat for me. At 18 home runs, he has been providing real offense. Perez, 35, has one year left on his contract, which probably indicates he will be retiring soon. At this point, he's probably a 1B/part-time catcher and for me, he will go to first base with Diaz behind the plate. But it's nice having VG power and a guy who can sit behind the dish, if needed.

Iglesias has been horrible for me despite a 144 ERA+ projection, which is a bit of a surprise considering how well he pitched for me last year. It's puzzling and frustrating, so perhaps a change of scenery works for John. In real life, he has been very good beyond his ugly ERA, so I suspect ZiPS treats him well next year, likely with a top-tier closer projection.

Jesus Baez was a guy I wanted from the beginning, despite him being a Met at the time. He's a 3B prospect who was flipped to St. Louis the night after we agreed to the deal, which probably made John feel a little easier about moving him. I think he's the type of guy who can jump into the top 100 at some point next year. As a 20-year-old this year, he's shown power, limited strikeouts, walked at a decent clip, and he has a little speed for a 3B.

The end of the trade is perhaps the saddest, for me. Taylor was a top 50 prospect last year and this year has been a complete train wreck for him in AA. It's a great buy-low situation for John, and I hope Taylor can turn it around. He was a first round pick for me at the time. And I got back John's 3, which is probably toward the end of that round that I'll hope to turn back into a decent prospect.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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383. Taj Bradley, Justin Wrobleski, Brice Matthews, Jefferson Rojas, Slade Caldwell, Guardians Draft Pick 1 to Atlanta for Bryce Miller, Triston Casas, Kyle Harrison, Atlanta Draft Pick 2

This is a monster trade that is a little odd in timing, I'll admit, and I'm not totally sure how it will look as early as next year. But I first started trying to get Casas from Brett in 2022, according to my Gmail account, and so this deal is almost more about the pursuit than anything else. Casas was amazing in 2023 after three seasons of strong minor league numbers and the growing sense that he was going to be a centerpiece hitter for Boston for years. Then, he tore his rib cage cartilage in 2024 and blew out a knee in 2025, which now puts him in this weird limbo situation where ZiPS will probably murder him, but there's a chance he hangs onto some level of usefulness in 2026 and a breakout IRL 2026 could put him back on the upward trajectory everyone expected. At any rate, Brett and I truly began discussing a real concept about two weeks ago, while I was in the midst of my Freddie Freeman discussions. So, I had in the back of my mind a backup 1B situation for next year while I was considering moving my current All Star 1B. Obviously, Casas is tough to value. He's of no use to me this year, which really hurts his value, and he has an uncertain 2026 for ZiPS, which further complicates things. On the positive side, he's still only 25 and formerly a very good hitter, so he definitely has value. Figuring out what it is made it tough.

We started the discussions around a concept of Miller and Bradley on each side and then Casas and prospects/picks similar to where this landed. Miller is another young player who has been good but who has struggled this year and has been hit by injury, so he's another gamble. This part of the deal is a little trickier because I really need Miller back this year to replace Bradley in the sim. He's been rehabbing and throwing successfully for a few weeks, so the hope is he could be back soon. Since he has a small sample size in the majors, the hope is he can toss some strong, meaningful innings down the stretch and turn his numbers around. Bradley, two years younger, is tough to value. I generally get worried when the Rays trade players because they always seem to turn out broken. This has happened to Bradley. On the other hand, for the last two years, he struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings, which is extremely impressive for a 22/23 year old. I honestly have no idea what the issue is with either.

Harrison, like Casas, is a bit of a homer pick. I love the pedigree -- young lefty starter, former top prospect, true upside -- but he clearly needs to tweak something to unleash it. The Sox haven't figured it out in AAA yet, so I think his ZiPS will also suffer for 2026. But he's been very effective for Brett, so I may have bought a 2025 sim option, at least.

For Brett, who has been hit by a ridiculous amount of injuries, he gets a ton of interesting pieces to bank on and dream on. I was patient with Matthews, who many of the GMs here opined was no good as he moved through Houston's system. I wish he could stick at shortstop, but even at second base, he could be an interesting 25-30 home run player who can also steal 15-20 bases at peak. His biggest issue is the swing and miss and it's being exposed. But if he can control that even a little bit, he's going to be special. Rojas has a really fun speed/power combo, with less power than Matthews, but much better bat control. Another top 100 prospect, Rojas has been shooting up the charts and just popped into AA as a 20-year-old. He's been on an impressive climb the last year. The last prospect is Slade Caldwell, a first round pick last year for me, who is really small, but plays bigger than his frame by boasting huge walk rates, a little power, big speed and plays a strong defensive center field. He just turned 19 and has been sitting on the prospect lists for the last few months.

The last pieces are Justin Wrobleski, a decent lefty pitcher for the Dodgers who is operating in kind of a RP/SP swing role throwing pretty hard for a lefty. He'll likely end up with an SP projection and hopefully will have a more defined role soon. Then Brett moves up from the 2nd to the 1st, which will likely be somewhere around 10 spots. That tends to be helpful in the back part of the first round.

So, I think if things land well, I get a future 1B and two future rotation pieces. For Atlanta, things land well if Taj figures some things out and some combination of Matthews/Rojas/Caldwell are starting for the Braves in the next 1-2 years. I think there are a number of plausible outcomes, so we'll see where they land.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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384. Tommy Edman to Houston for Trevor Larnach

This has to be the fastest deal in IBC history. I messaged Ty at 10:29 p.m. with this offer and he replied, "Ok," two minutes later. Deal done. The remarkable thing is we hadn't discussed either player in any way up to that point. Ty had mentioned Edman in prior deals, but we never really talked about him. I think this gives him a solid defender at multiple positions with VG power against lefties and speed and this gives me a lefty hitter with some point and a decent bat with no real defensive home. All in all, we both fill some potential gaps without losing much.

Edman has been a huge disappointment for me, hitting under .200 over 350 at bats and I just can't really do it anymore. Edman had a solid 2024 and a great playoffs, but for some reason hasn't been able to follow that up, though he's not chasing or whiffing much. Larnach gives me some flexibility with lineups if he can hit a little and I have enough depth to cover different defensive lineups. He's hitting the ball hard when he hits it, but that's about it.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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385. Steven Kwan, John Schreiber, Carlos Estevez to Colorado for Dylan Crews, Chase DeLauter, Tim Herrin, Winston Santos, Rockies Draft Pick 3

Nate and I started discussing the framework of a deal back in May, making this one of my longer negotiations ever. This was around the time when I was practically begging teams to blow up my underperforming team. As predicted, few teams took me up on it, but Nate continued to show some level of interest in a few of my guys, Kwan being the main target. As my team steadily improved and it became apparent Nate had no competition in the NL West, he got more interested in making a move to jump right into the race. After years of low picks and biding his time, he's finally ready to go.

From the start, the guy who seemed to make sense if I was going to move Kwan was Crews. He's been underwhelming as a pro and while I have some concerns about his walk rate and this year's injury, there's still a ton of upside into a guy who's 23 in his second year of pro ball. If his LSU performance translates, he's going to be quite the RF/CF with great defense, speed and power. I'm now just waiting for it to happen. But Kwan is an established start, and more needed to be involved. We tossed around a few other scenarios, but as guys got dealt off or hurt, we boiled it mostly down to Kwan as the main piece moving west. DeLauter I envisioned replacing Kwan in LF since he was simming so well for Nate. Then he went and broke his wrist and is out for the year. So, that's less than ideal, but if the surgery is successful, he should be back for next year and he was playing really well in AAA as, also, a 23-year-old. He has a great eye at the plate, walks, and doesn't strike out, which gives him great counting stats. He's firmly in top 100 lists and will likely drop due to injury, but he's right on the doorstep. So, I'm giving up a lot this year and probably next year sim-wise, but I'm banking on having the potential for 2/3 of an outfield moving forward.

Nate wanted Doval, but we didn't really find the right mix there, so he settled for two solid RP who sit right in the middle of my pen -- Schreiber and Estevez. I just got these guys recently from Toronto and really wasn't dying to move both. But when we ended up with Santos, Herrin and a 3 for both, that was worth doing on my end. Herrin ended up with a strong projection, but he's performed poorly for Nate and in real life, so I'm not sure if he's going to be worth much. Santos, like DeLauter, is out for the year. He hit the IL in April with a back injury after 5.2 AA innings where he struck out 11 and gave up 2 ER. Pre-injury, he was ready for a 2025 breakout for the Rangers. Hopefully it happens in 2026. And the pick is the pick.

Nate gets one of the best tablesetters in the league and two strong middle relievers to help his run to the pennant and beyond. I take a hit at the top of my order for sure, but I'm getting some guys who I think can be staples for a long time.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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386. Isaac Paredes, Bo Naylor, Reid Detmers, Mets Draft Pick 3 to Miami for Kristian Campbell, Marlins Draft Pick 4

While negotiations with Nate were going on for quite some time, the timing of Nils' random idea actually worked out pretty well. Out of nowhere, he brought up a concept where he would get Paredes and I would get Campbell. As the final deal indicates, he wanted a whole lot more on top, which probably is an overpay by me. But, this deal really aligns with my stated goal of trying to get younger. So, I see this really as paying Naylor and Detmers to buy a few years of age.

Funny enough, Paredes is one of the guys Nils liked to argue wasn't actually very good because he has such weird stats. He pulls everything and his nothing hard, and yet he doesn't strike out, walks as much as he strikes out, hits tons of home runs and plays decent defense. His bad year in 2024 seemed to justify the naysayers and then he came back with a vengeance in 2025, which I expected playing in Houston. Unfortunately, he strained his hamstring on a hit last month, which the team said was "significant." They are opting to try with PRP injections over surgery with the hope he can return this year. I was banking on him not returning, but there's an outside shot he comes back this year. If he does, it would be a huge get for Nils down the stretch.

But as I was considering dealing Kwan, having Campbell fall in my lap was a great get. Again, not expecting Paredes to return, I was thinking about Perez or Profar finishing out the year at 1B and Ramirez at 3B. So, I kinda viewed this as adding a bat this year and one with a very strong projection, speed, and power. Campbell can slide into 2B or the outfield, depending on matchups, which gives me a lot of flexibility. The real concern with him is whether he has fixed his swing gap that caused him to start hot, crater, and get demoted. And since the Sox never addressed 1B for 2025, they made him start practicing there and the question is whether he will stay there or move back to 2B. They really put a lot on a rookie, which is probably a big part of why he struggled. He's been much better lately in AAA, so if he can show some promise in August and September, I think he can make a bit of a ZiPS recovery.

With Diaz in place, losing Naylor isn't too tough. He's young, has some power, and plays good D, but he can't hit. Detmers is finally hitting his potential as a shutdown reliever and looks like a good player next year. Nils also "needed" a pick upgrade, so he got one. Again, I gave up a lot of talent to buy a couple years from Paredes to Campbell, but I also picked up a player on my favorite team who actually comes at a really good time for my lineup.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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387. Hayden Harris, Cleveland Draft Pick 3 to Kansas City for Robert Stephenson, Kansas City Draft Pick 4

Not an overly complex deal, but one that should help if Stephenson can stay healthy. Stephenson is another former Guardian whom I dealt to Toronto in the offseason, while he was rehabbing. He's finally off the IL and pitching in the majors. If he can stay healthy, he provides a solid righty reliever to add some depth. Harris is having a great year in AAA as a 26-year-old and I picked him up hoping for a little magic. He promptly gave up 3 ER in 0 IP in back-to-back games last week, so he needed to go.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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388. Jorge Soler to Tampa Bay for Jordan Wicks

I picked up Soler to add a power-hitting right handed bat to my bench and as an occasional DH. However, right when I got him, he hit the IL, so I've never actually had him in my lineup. However, three days later Arizona added Christopher Morel to an offer, which gave me yet another power-only right handed hitter. I've been using Morel in a platoon and he's done ok and he's seven years younger, so I was fine moving Soler. When I saw Matt's post looking for a righty option, Soler seemed to fit what he was looking for. He offered Wicks and the deal was done. Wicks is a guy I was after 1-2 years ago as he was coming up. He hit some injuries and some down performance, but he seems to be building back to what the Cubs had hoped he would be in 2023. In 59.2 IP he has a 9.65 K/9 ration and 2.87 BB/9 ratio with a 3.47 ERA. He's also posted favorable numbers in a very short stint in the majors, albeit with a crazy ERA. I don't think he'll be super useful this year or next, but if he continues improving, there might be something there.
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Re: All The Guardians Trades

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389. Jacob deGrom, Fernando Tatis Jr., Tim Herrin, Royals Draft Pick 4 to Miami for MacKenzie Gore, Roman Anthony, Rhys Hoskins, Darrell Morel, Luke Sinnard

Who doesn't love a good deadline blockbuster?

I didn't wake up envisioning this and I'm certain Nils didn't, either. However, I definitely felt that after my deGrom block post that Nils would pop out of his burrow and start sniffing around. And at about 8:30 a.m., I got a message from him. Frankly, it wasn't very interesting.

It included Gore and some other pieces, but I can't say it was very intriguing. However, given that my team has been trending downward and deGrom is 37, I had to explore. Having had both deGrom and Buxton in this league, I have experienced the torment of having them. They are both amazingly talented and terrifyingly fragile. ZiPS loves them and yet you just sit around waiting for a sore elbow, tweaked knee, etc. etc. and then all of a sudden, three to six months have gone by without having them available. I took a gamble on deGrom preseason 2023 after a year when he only made 11 starts. He signed with Texas and decided to make 9 starts over two years while having elbow surgery.

And then came 2025. ZiPS continues to adore him and he has stepped up this year. He owns a 2.79 ERA over 145.1 IP with 155 strikeouts to only 32 walks. He's been electric for the Rangers and continues to prove he is one of the best pitchers of his era. However, did I mention he's 37? And always hurt? Just this week, he had to skip a start due to shoulder fatigue. So, having him through September definitely feels like playing with house money. And while I can't predict his future, I suspect Nils will get great results from him as long as he's active in the majors.

Gore, 11 years his junior, has shown improvement the last couple years as he has moved into the league. Last year, he was a 3+ win pitcher and ZiPS was a little hesitant on him. This year, he started off looking like an ace and the second half has not been kind. That said, he is now posting a K rate over 10 per 9 inning and he has lowered his walk rate in his third full-time year. I have to hope he can turn around his second half and have a strong September to go in 2026 in a great spot. He is still on track to surpass a 3-win season and he sits in the top 25 among starting pitchers. I'm saving a ton of age in pitching here, but I'm losing a ton of this-year value.

So, I took a swing. I offered deGrom/Tatis for Gore/Anthony. Instant no. Then he immediately started asking for things to be tossed in. So, I knew he was interested. I still wasn't sure that I was. I honestly assumed he would say no and I would just have to figure out who else to get with Gore to make a deGrom deal work. Once he engaged a little more, I had to actually wrap my head around what this would look like.

He wanted Herrin, who has a very strong projection, and offered back Darrell Morel. The problem is I was giving him two top-tier assets that easily makes him the top contender in the league and guts my chances this year. As I considered the ramifications, I started getting really excited about the prospect of having Anthony.

Not that Tatis isn't amazing. I got him in early 2024 after the league expansion draft from Jim in one of the typical blockbusters that elicited whimpers from the typical characters (I gave up Tucker, Bieber, Yelich for Tatis, Suwinski, Devin Williams...I mean, c'mon). But Tatis is having one of his best seasons ever as he's striking out less and walking more while maintaining elite defense and likely a career-high in stolen bases. He's probably one of the five best players in any given season, so it's really difficult to envision dealing him, certainly not when he's 26. But if I had to make a list of players I would consider needing back in a trade, Roman Anthony is certainly toward the top.

The first thing that stands out about Anthony is he's having an elite season and the kid is 21. He's playing a strong RF and he's got a .400 OBP. There's a really ridiculous BABIP going on right now, but he has an extremely low chase rate and he's crushing the ball. In fact, he hit a home run off Paul Skenes tonight. He definitely isn't going to help me this year, so I have a gaping hole in my lineup and with Seager out as well, my lineup is suddenly meager. I'll admit it's an odd move for a contender, but I told everyone in April I didn't trust this team. It just took other teams a few months to listen. I've probably handed Gudim the division and maybe I'll back into a wild card spot and lose in the first round. But I absolutely love having Anthony on my team. If he is the franchise player he seems to be, He's going to be so fun to have.

So, I knew I could get Morel. He's a really exciting Pirates SS/3B prospect, who could end up with double plus power. He's just a DSL guy now, but he's super tall and lanky with a cannon for an arm. He's a project, but a fun one. But I kept thinking about my lineup, so I asked for Hoskins. He is not a franchise hitter by any means. He's old and coming off a major injury. But it's possible he is a band aid that can give me a little spark at the end of the year. He's rehabbing a sprained thumb (who knew?) and there seems to be a decent chance he's back next week. Nils has like 7 elite hitters now, so losing Hoskins wasn't going to be an issue for him and I think he provides some short-term help. It doesn't hurt that I'm taking a gamble on Triston Casas being useful next year, so Hoskins mitigates that some, too.

So, Nils asked for his 4th back and since we were both in the mood to be asking for things, I told him I would give him the KC 4th if he added Sinnard. He was a Braves' 3rd round pick last year and by all accounts has been acclimating to pro ball pretty well. He owns a 10.56 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9 over 67.1 IP this year between A and A+. He's a little old for the level, but he's a late-bloomer who didn't start playing baseball until his senior year in high school. He's got a ton of movement to compliment his fastball and the dude is 6'8. Most thing he could be a back-end starter, but I see a 24-year-old flame-throwing closer in a couple years with big stuff.

So, that was it. That's how I likely ended my chances for 2025, but gave myself a lot more life in 2026 and beyond. It's hugely disappointing for Nils if he doesn't make a deep playoff run, but he now has Tatis, Acuna, Tucker, Vlad, Olson, Correa, Albies, and maybe Isaac Paredes in his lineup. It's a silly amount of talent and he's done a good job building it. Good luck to the pitchers he faces in the playoffs.
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