IBC

Fronted by young flamethrowers Ubaldo Jiminez and Rhadmes Liz with the following in the pipeline, the IBC Mets are definitely feeling good about the future of their Starting Rotation:

Clayton Kershaw, lhp Born: March 19, 1988 ï B-T: L-L ï Ht: 6-3 ï Wt: 210
Drafted: HSóDallas, 2006 (1st round) ï Signed by: Calvin Jones

Background: As an underclassman in high school, Kershaw had the benefit of pitching on high-profile travel teams in Texas, but teammates Shawn Tolleson (now at Baylor) and Jordan Walden (Angels) got most of the attention. Kershaw pitched just four innings out of the U.S. junior team's bullpen at the 2005 Pan American Championships in Mexico, buried at the time behind harder throwers such as Tolleson, Brett Anderson (Diamondbacks) and Josh Thrailkill (Clemson). But it was Kershaw who blossomed into the best high school prospect in the 2006 draft after he gained velocity on his fastball and tightened his curveball. The Tigers were set to take him with the sixth overall pick before Andrew Miller unexpectedly fell in their laps, allowing Kershaw to drop one more spot to the Dodgers. He ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2006 and in the low Class A Midwest League in 2007. He also pitched in the Futures Game and jumped to Double-A Jacksonville a month later in just his first full pro season.

Strengths: Kershaw pitches off a fastball that rests comfortably at 93-94 mph. He touched 99 a handful of times last summer, including once with Los Angeles general manager Ned Colletti in the stands (the Great Lakes scoreboard posted a reading of 101 on the pitch). Kershaw's heater has late, riding life with explosive finish at the plate. His 71-77 mph curveball has hard 1-to-7 tilt from his high-three-quarters arm slot. He made strides with his circle changeup during the year, and it too grades as a third plus future offering. He generates his stuff with a loose, clean arm action. At 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, he has an ideal pitcher's frame that exudes durability as well as athleticism. He eventually should pitch with above-average command, though he didn't show it in 2007. Kershaw is a little slow to the plate, but is cognizant of baserunners. He employs a slide-step effectively and has a good pickoff move. His makeup and competitiveness are off the charts, and he's lauded for his humility off the field.

Weaknesses: After Kershaw posted a 54-5 strikeout-walk mark in his pro debut, he failed to maintain his focus and delivery during 2007, which led to erratic command. He's working on improving the timing of his shoulder tilt. He tends to load his left shoulder late, causing his arm to drag during his follow-through, a correctable flaw. It makes him misfire up in the strike zone, and when he overcompensates, he begins to bury his pitches in the dirt. Because of the exceptional life on his fastball and the fact it gained velocity in 2007, learning to harness it will be an important step. His focus also wavers at times during outings. The shape of his breaking ball is somewhat inconsistent, and he'll need to continue to work on sharpening his secondary pitches.

The Future: He offers a promising combination of front-of-the-rotation stuff and the work ethic to reach his ceiling as an ace. Some in the organization say Kershaw's stuff is more advanced than Chad Billingsley's and Jonathan Broxton's at the same stage of their development. Now Kershaw has to apply the polish. He'll most likely open what could be his last season in the minors in Double-A.

Franklin Morales, lhp Born: Jan. 24, 1986 ï B-T: L-L ï Ht: 6-0 ï Wt: 190
Signed: Venezuela, 2002 ï Signed by: Francisco Cartaya

Background: After leading the high Class A California League with a 3.68 ERA and 179 strikeouts in 154 innings in 2006, Morales found success harder to come by at the beginning of the 2007 season. Thirteen starts into the year, he was winless at Double-A Tulsa and had just given up six runs in two-thirds of an inning in his latest outing. Selected to pitch in the Futures Game as part of the All-Star Game festivities, he hit 97 mph with his fastball and struck out Rockies DH Ian Stewart, Twins second baseman Matt Tolbert and Reds outfielder Jay Bruce in an inning of work. The outing seemed to give Morales confidence, as he went 3-0 in four starts at Tulsa afterward, then won two of his three starts at Triple-A Colorado Springs and made the jump to the big leagues. At 21, Morales became the fourth-youngest player in Rockies history, but quickly proved he belonged. He tied a franchise record for starters by spinning 20 straight scoreless innings. He made starts in the first two rounds of the playoffs before pitching out of the bullpen in the World Series. Morales wasn't as sharp in the postseason, getting tagged for 11 earned runs in 10 innings. The Rockies first spotted him as an outfielder but immediately converted him to the mound after signing him for $40,000. The first big league lefthander to come out of Colorado's Latin American program, he has posted a winning record in each of his five pro seasons.

Strengths: Morales can reach the upper 90s with his fastball, but he achieves his best command and life when he pitches at 92-93 mph, still plenty hard for a lefthander. He features two curveballs, a slower version that he throws for strikes and a harder, sweepier one that hitters will chase. He made major strides with his changeup in 2007. The Rockies consider Moraels a big-game pitcher who gets better with a challenge. He has a short-term memory and is able to shake off struggles, make adjustments and move on in his next start. He shows the athleticism of a position player, and his experience as an outfielder is evident when he's at the plate. He went 4-for-13 (.308) in the big leagues.

Weaknesses: Morales still has to work on throwing more consistent and more quality strikes. He can make a pitch when he has to, but he can cut down on his walks and refine his command. His hard curveball isn't as reliable as his slower bender, and he needs to smooth out his arm action and add deception to his changeup. An improved changeup would help him against righthanders, who hit .273 off him in the majors (compared to a .129 average by lefties). Morales can get a little to emotional at times on the mound. When he first got to the majors, he got himself into trouble by becoming so obsessed with videos and scouting reports that he lost touch with his own strengths.

The Future: Morales has the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. He projects as Colorado's No. 4 starter in 2008, but the spot won't be handed to him. Because he'll be 22 and has spent just one year above Class A, the Rockies would have no qualms about sending him to Triple-A if he doesn't have a strong spring.

Jarrod Parker, rhp Born: Nov. 24, 1988 ï B-T: R-R ï Ht: 6-2 ï Wt: 175
Drafted: HSóNorwell, Ind., 2007 (1st round) ï Signed by: Mike Daughtry

Background: Parker drew his first widespread notice pitching for the U.S. junior national team in September 2006, and he continued to shoot up draft boards with a dominant spring as a high school senior. He overmatched inferior high school competition in Indiana, going 7-0, 0.20 with 68 strikeouts in 34 innings. The Cubs almost drafted him at No. 3 before the Diamondbacks grabbed him with the ninth overall pick and signed him just before the Aug. 15 deadline for a $2.1 million bonus.

Strengths: Though he didn't pitch during the summer, Parker showed the Diamondbacks his stuff in instructional league, flashing the easy 93-97 mph fastball that so excited scouts. His hard curveball already rates as the best in the system, and he also has a mid-80s slider. He earns comparisons to Tim Lincecum and Scott Kazmir for his quick arm, smooth mechanics and small frame. The most impressive part of Parker's package might be his athleticism and how easily he repeats his delivery, and the Diamondbacks also like his intelligence and attitude.

Weaknesses: Parker is working on getting more separation between his curveball and slider. Though he has a feel for the strike zone and for throwing a changeup, he still needs to work on both.

The Future: He hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet, but Arizona already believes Parker was worth the price it paid to sign him. He'll make his professional debut at low Class A South Bend, about two hours northwest of his hometown.


Tyler Herron, rhp Born: August 5, 1986 ï B-T: R-R ï Ht: 6-3 ï Wt: 190
Drafted: HSóWellington, Fla., 2005 (1st round supplemental) ï Signed by: Steve Turco

Background: The 46th overall pick in 2005 out of the powerhouse Wellington High program in Florida, Herron went winless in his pro debut and couldn't advance past short-season ball in his first two seasons. He hinted at a breakout by going 4-1, 2.67 in his final five starts in 2006, then delivered by emerging as the best pitching prospect on a deep low Class A Quad Cities staff.

Strengths: Herron has three pitches that are or should be average or better. He throws a sinking fastball in the low 90s and can spot it anywhere he wants in the strike zone. His changeup has become a reliable second pitch and his curveball has good break. He's cool and athletic on the mound and has consistently won praise for his maturity.

Weaknesses: Herron needs more consistency with his pitches. His fastball can straighten out at times, and he'll also hang his curveball. He needs to add strength to his slender frame, though he did hold up well over his first year in full-season ball.

The Future: Herron will continue a slow and steady rise in the organization. He'll jump to high Class A, where he'll no longer be protected by the tandem rotation system that worked so well at Quad Cities. He has a ceiling as a No. 3 starter.

Glenn Gibson, lhp Born: Sept. 21, 1987 ï B-T: L-L ï Ht: 6-4 ï Wt: 195
Drafted: HSóCenter Moriches, N.Y., 2006 (4th round) ï Signed by: Guy Mader

Background: The son of former major league lefthander Paul Gibson, Glenn showed off his superior feel for pitching at short-season Vermont. He might have been the New-York Penn League's best pitcher until his final two starts, when he tried to pitch while sick and saw his ERA balloon from 1.74 to 3.10. It was later discovered he had mononucleosis, causing him to drop about 20 pounds and reversing his solid progress in the weight room.

Strengths: Gibson's savvy makes his stuff play up. He pores over hitting and pitching charts before every start so he can exploit weaknesses, and he mixes speeds and locations very well. He can throw his plus changeup in any count for strikes, his slow downer curveball can be above-average at times and his fastball can touch 91 mph and has late movement.

Weaknesses: Gibson's fastball sits in the high 80s and isn't overpowering, which limits his upside and margin for error. He still needs to add strength to his frame, particularly his lower half, to improve his durability and velocity.

The Future: Gibson is ready for a full-season league and should begin 2008 in low Class A. He looks like a safe bet to reach the big leagues as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Tyler Herron was traded earlier to the Devil Rays ... the IBC Mets have added two other solid prospects in the pipeline to be future SP. Both pitcher have demonstrated a history of keeping the ball in the ballpark.

The Mets today selected JP Arrieta with the 38th overall selection. Some my consider this selection a reach at #38 but the Mets believe that JP has the talent, the head and the heart to be a solid mid-rotation (2/3) SP with a few "minor mechanical adjustments" to some flaws that developed during his last year of collegiate ball. JP had been dominant in his sophomore year at Texas Christian University and then in a stint for Team USA. The year after, however, his stuff and command took a step backwards in his draft-eligible year. He was still rated as a late-first or second round talent and got a corresponding signing bonus from the real life Orioles, despite being drafted in the fifth round. Assigned to the advanced Arizona Fall League, Arrieta pitched well getting 16 Ks in 16 scoreless IP. His fastball was back up to 93-94 MPH, though his secondary stuff needs some refinement. Most scouts believe he is a future #3 or #4 starter, though one talent evaluator who saw him in Arizona has stated he could make it as a #2.

Jake Arrieta, rhp Born: March 6, 1986. ï B-T: R-R. ï Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 210.
Drafted: Texas Christian, 2007 (5th round) ï Signed by: Jim Richardson

Background: Arrieta was a candidate for the top of the first round after a standout sophomore season at Texas Christian and a 4-0, 0.27 summer for Team USA, but a disappointing junior season and high bonus demands drove him down in the draft. The Orioles took him in the fifth round and signed him before the deadline for $1.1 million.

Strengths: Arrieta's fastball has run from 91-95 mph in the past, though he lost some velocity and life during the college season. His heater was better in the Arizona Fall League, though still not at its best. He also throws a hard slider with good bite. He has an ideal pitcher's body and an aggressive approach.

Weaknesses: The Orioles took Arrieta despite his down spring because they thought his problems were mechanical. His lines to the plate got off and he was throwing across his body and not transferring his weight properly, so he lost velocity and left balls up in the zone. The player-development staff thinks those flaws can be fixed with minor adjustments. He flashed a promising changeup as a sophomore but wasn't consistent with it in 2007.

The Future: Even though he wasn't stretched out, Arrieta impressed scouts and performed well in the AFL, going right after hitters. The Orioles expect even better things once he fixes his mechanics. He could make his pro debut in high Class A.

Kevin Goldstein wrote:

The Good: He has a power pitcherís frame with pretty good stuff--he pitches primarily off his fastball, which sits in the low 90s and comes in on a downward plane. Itís not a pure sinker, but batters have trouble getting lift off the pitch, as evidenced by just eight home runs surrendered in his final two years for the Horned Frogs. The slider is a solid offering with some depth.

The Bad: Arrieta needs to work more on his off-speed offerings, in particular his changeup. His command could also use improvement. Scouts who saw him pitch during his final year at college attributed his troubles to mechanical tinkering.

Timetable: ... Arrieta signed too late to make his pro debut, but heís been very impressive pitching against the advanced competition of the Arizona Fall League. Heíll likely reach Double-A at some point in 2008, if not begin the year there, and could move quickly.

Carlos Gomez reported that the O's need to, "Speed up his delivery and watch his velocity soar." Apparently they did just that under new pitching coach Rick Kranitz's direction and it began to show dividends this fall in the AFL.

Jack Egbert rejoined the IBC Mets as part of the aforementioned Herron trade. The GM of the Mets has long been a huge Egbert fan and believes he is the most under-rated significant prospect the real life White Sox have. Why? Last season at AA he had a 3.06 ERA in 161.2 innings pitched with a 54 GB% and most significantly a 0.17 HR/9. Now Birmingham is a more spacious park then the Cell but it is extremely important to keep the ball in the park for a SP to succeed with the Pale Hose - that was Brandon McCarthy's problem; it is currently John Danks' problem - and the reason I am personally not as upset as many by the trading of Gio Gonzalez. The fact that Egbert is maturing as he ages (24) is underscored by the almost 20% drop in BB/9 allowed last year. His GDP% rivals GB artists like Webb and Wang. AAA Charlotte is more like the Cell and I would expect that if/when he does well there in 2008 he will be called up in July or so ...

Again, Kevin Goldstein wrote of Egbert:

The Good: Egbert does two things exceedingly well--throw strikes and keep the ball on the ground. His upper-80s sinker is hard to get lift on, as he gave up just three home runs all year, and he can give batters a different look with a four-seamer than gets up to 91-92 mph. His changeup is a true plus pitch with excellent deception and late fade.

The Bad: Egbertís curveball grades out as average by the more optimistic scouting reports, and some question just how far he can go without plus velocity or an above-average breaking ball; they wonder what he can depend on as a go-to pitch at the major league level.

Timetable: ... Heíll begin the year as part of a solid Triple-A rotation, and could be among the first called up should the need arise.

The IBC Mets added another potential future SP to their mix with the team's third selection [in the fourth round] of this year's IBC draft tapping Maine native LHP Charles Furbush. With a projectable 6-foot-5, 215-pound frame, Furbush features a nice fastball, a curve that has shown flashes of being above-average, and a change up. Both of his secondary pitches are behind the heater thus far, but after posting a 1.06 WHIP and 4.93 K:BB rate in his first 61.2 innings as a pro, Furbush has shown all the talents necessary to become at least a No. 3 starter as early as late 2009óthough 2010 is more likely.

The real life Tigers nabbed Charles Furbush in the 4th round (151st overall) in June after just one year at Louisiana State University. The southpaw became a Tiger (LSU, that is) after 2 years at Saint Joseph's College in Maine, but his junior year in Baton Rouge, La. yielded mixed results coming off of a summer in which he was named one of the Top 10 prospects in the Cape Cod League by Baseball America. LHP Charlie Furbush (4) went 6-1, 2.34 in 62 innings, most of them at low Class A West Michigan, with a 69-14 K-BB ratio and he did pitch in the AA playoffs. Reportedly Furbursh rediscovered some velocity late this summer, touching 92 after hitting 93-94 mph last summer in the Cape Cod League, and could be fast-tracked.

As a sidenote it was reported here in the local papers that when he signed his contract includes a clause where the Tigers will pay for him to finish college -- he has three semesters remaining -- either during the offseason or after his career is over. He was a sports management major at St. Joseph's and looks to possibly get back into that field.

... [Justin] Verlander couldn't outduel Gavin Floyd, who no-hit the Tigers for 71/3 innings and climbed to 2-0 against them this year. Of his 10 career victories, three are against them.

"When you have stuff like him and you're facing a ballclub like the Tigers, throwing the way he did, it was outstanding," manager Ozzie Guillen said. "It builds confidence. His stuff always has been there. Hopefully this is the beginning of a great career."

... While he walked four batters in the first four innings, including the game's first batter and two in the third inning, Floyd retired 12 straight before Edgar Renteria lined an eighth-inning single to right field.

"Once I got in my rhythm, I felt comfortable with everything Ö and went with it," he said.

It took a while.

"He was effectively wild [early]; he was kind of all over the place," [A.J.] Pierzynski said. "He got double plays when he needed them. He didn't give in, that was the biggest thing. He found a way to get through it, and that's what you need."

... Floyd was helped by his defense, including Carlos Quentin's wall-banging catch in left field to end the first inning and Joe Crede's diving stop of a grounder to begin the second. Crede also started a fourth-inning double play by roaming far to his left.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cs ... 3505.story

Yesterday's performance lowered his ERA for the season to 2.03 and his WHIP to 0.98 but his 6/6 K/BB in 13.1 IP indicates he need to continue to get good defensive support - and remain lucky. Oh by the way, Floyd is now 3-0, with a 2.43 ERA in 37 innings against the Tigers. His two quality starts to begin the season give him 7 in his last 8 starts dating back to last season.

It appears that the 2009 IBC Mets starting rotation will be:

Ricky Nolasco......11-7, 121/35 K/BB, 3.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Gavin Floyd.........12-6, 99/57 K/BB, 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Ubaldo Jimenez....8-10, 118/75 K/BB, 3.86 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Clayton Kershaw...2-3, 50/33 K/BB, 3.71 ERA, 1.53 WHIP (MLB) & 2-3, 59/19 K/BB, 1.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (AA)
Chris Lambert......12-7, 113/46 K/BB, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (AAA)

Jake Arrieta, Scott Feldman, Matt Harrison and/or Jarrod Parker are also potentially in the mix for the #5 slot.

For the record, it's seeing stuff like this that makes me feel like I could be in this league for another 6 years. Over the past two years, with the influx of good GM's, it's become incredibly impressive how quickly the balance of power in the league has evened out.

While the JB's and Nate's still have a lineup of All-Stars, the depth in both of their systems - and I think they would admit it - is nowhere near where it was two years ago. So consider this my kudos to the rest of the league. I think, without question, this is the strongest the league has ever been.