Will Carroll: There is no single pitcher that I would trade straight up for Lincecum. There are very, very few players that I would take straight up for him and the ones I would are guys like Cabrera, Pujols, Reyes ...
... so yes, I like Tim Lincecum and would be willing to say that the Giants should never trade him.
John Paul (Manch Vegas, CT): Heyman was just on Mike and the Mad Dog saying the Giants would rather trade Tim Lincecum rather than Matt Cain and are actually considering this Rios for Lincecum swap. On what planet are the Giants brass living, and please tell me the Giants aren't THAT stupid- and I'm not even a Giant fan.
Will Carroll: Heyman has great info -- does anyone have a better mix of writers than SI right now? -- and yeah, I believe that. If Brian Sabean does that deal, well, he deserves the results. Right now the Giants seem to be determined to shed all talent. Compare what the Nats have to what the Giants have right now and tell me which you prefer.
Pimp Your Pirates!
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Pimp Your Pirates!
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Background: Signed for just $15,000, Sosa was scheduled to remain in extended spring and pitch in the Arizona League in 2007. But Orlando Yntema tore a knee ligament in the final week of spring training and Sosa replaced him at Augusta. He made the most of his chance, winning more games (six) than he allowed earned runs (five) before earning a trip to the Futures Game and a promotion to high Class A.
Strengths: Sosa's pitches consistently in the mid-90s and tops out at 97 mph with his fastball. His hard curveball is a strikeout pitch. He repeats his delivery well while throwing from a high three-quarters slot. He's among the more durable high-profile arms in the system, with nary a complaint about soreness.
Weaknesses: He's still more thrower than pitcher, and Sosa at times has trouble finding the strike zone and keeping his fastball down. He's trying to learn a changeup, and while he has shown progress, it remains a distant third pitch. Hitters didn't chase his curveball as much after he moved up to San Jose.
The Future: If Sosa can harness his stuff, his upside is huge, and his changeup is the key for him to remain a starter. He soaked up more experience in the Venezuelan winter league and probably will get more experience in high Class A at the start of 2008.
Strengths: Sosa's pitches consistently in the mid-90s and tops out at 97 mph with his fastball. His hard curveball is a strikeout pitch. He repeats his delivery well while throwing from a high three-quarters slot. He's among the more durable high-profile arms in the system, with nary a complaint about soreness.
Weaknesses: He's still more thrower than pitcher, and Sosa at times has trouble finding the strike zone and keeping his fastball down. He's trying to learn a changeup, and while he has shown progress, it remains a distant third pitch. Hitters didn't chase his curveball as much after he moved up to San Jose.
The Future: If Sosa can harness his stuff, his upside is huge, and his changeup is the key for him to remain a starter. He soaked up more experience in the Venezuelan winter league and probably will get more experience in high Class A at the start of 2008.
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Tuesday, Jerry Crasnick led a discussion of two hot young American League pitchers, both of them rookies last season: Joba Chamberlain vs. Clay Buchholz. Today we turn our attention to the National League, where we begin with a short list of candidates for consideration.
Consider: in 2007 only three National League pitchers younger than 24 pitched enough innings (162) to qualify for the league's ERA title. And none of them were rookies. So when a kid pitcher comes along who can actually, you know, pitch ... well, I'm sure you'll pardon us for getting just a little bit excited.
Eight pitchers younger than 24 pitched more than 100 innings, and only three of those eight made their major-league debuts last season. Those three? 21-year-old Yovani Gallardo, 22-year-old Kyle Kendrick and 23-year-old Tim Lincecum. Which one of them has the most promising future?
With due respect, we're going to summarily eliminate Kendrick from the competition. Why? Because while Gallardo and (especially) Lincecum feature overpowering stuff, Kendrick struck out only 3.6 batters per nine innings, which ranked 73rd among the 76 National Leaguers with at least 100 innings pitched last season. Granted, Aaron Cook ranked 76th and Cook is a pretty good pitcher. But you have to look at strikeout rates when comparing young pitchers, and Kendrick just doesn't stack up with Gallardo and Lincecum.
The case for Lincecum
Lincecum struck out 9.2 hitters per nine innings. Among those 76 National Leaguers with at least 100 innings pitched, only Cy Young winner Jake Peavy did better. Lincecum showed little sign of wear: between his time in the minors and his five months with the Giants, he totaled 177 innings last season. The Giants did shut him down after his Sept. 16 start, but that was purely precautionary. Though slight of build, Lincecum can throw his heat in the high 90s and his curveball, at its best, is simply unhittable.
The case for Gallardo
Gallardo's two-and-a-half years younger than Lincecum, which means he's got a shorter track record than Lincecum -- at least in terms of staying healthy -- but also means he might have more room to grow. Gallardo doesn't throw as hard as Lincecum, but he still throws plenty hard (88-94 mph) and has good command of his curveball and his changeup (and throws the occasional slider, too). Thrown into the heat of a pennant race last summer, Gallardo went 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 20 games, and after a rough August he thrived down the stretch, posting a 1.36 ERA in September.
The Choice
Entering last season, Lincecum and Gallardo both were listed among the top five or six pitching prospects in the minors, and both justified their status after reaching the majors. Perhaps we should be frightened by Lincecum's small frame -- he's listed as 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds -- but I find his strikeout rate irresistible, and he's also past the age at which we might be particularly concerned about a serious injury. But what do you think?
Consider: in 2007 only three National League pitchers younger than 24 pitched enough innings (162) to qualify for the league's ERA title. And none of them were rookies. So when a kid pitcher comes along who can actually, you know, pitch ... well, I'm sure you'll pardon us for getting just a little bit excited.
Eight pitchers younger than 24 pitched more than 100 innings, and only three of those eight made their major-league debuts last season. Those three? 21-year-old Yovani Gallardo, 22-year-old Kyle Kendrick and 23-year-old Tim Lincecum. Which one of them has the most promising future?
With due respect, we're going to summarily eliminate Kendrick from the competition. Why? Because while Gallardo and (especially) Lincecum feature overpowering stuff, Kendrick struck out only 3.6 batters per nine innings, which ranked 73rd among the 76 National Leaguers with at least 100 innings pitched last season. Granted, Aaron Cook ranked 76th and Cook is a pretty good pitcher. But you have to look at strikeout rates when comparing young pitchers, and Kendrick just doesn't stack up with Gallardo and Lincecum.
The case for Lincecum
Lincecum struck out 9.2 hitters per nine innings. Among those 76 National Leaguers with at least 100 innings pitched, only Cy Young winner Jake Peavy did better. Lincecum showed little sign of wear: between his time in the minors and his five months with the Giants, he totaled 177 innings last season. The Giants did shut him down after his Sept. 16 start, but that was purely precautionary. Though slight of build, Lincecum can throw his heat in the high 90s and his curveball, at its best, is simply unhittable.
The case for Gallardo
Gallardo's two-and-a-half years younger than Lincecum, which means he's got a shorter track record than Lincecum -- at least in terms of staying healthy -- but also means he might have more room to grow. Gallardo doesn't throw as hard as Lincecum, but he still throws plenty hard (88-94 mph) and has good command of his curveball and his changeup (and throws the occasional slider, too). Thrown into the heat of a pennant race last summer, Gallardo went 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 20 games, and after a rough August he thrived down the stretch, posting a 1.36 ERA in September.
The Choice
Entering last season, Lincecum and Gallardo both were listed among the top five or six pitching prospects in the minors, and both justified their status after reaching the majors. Perhaps we should be frightened by Lincecum's small frame -- he's listed as 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds -- but I find his strikeout rate irresistible, and he's also past the age at which we might be particularly concerned about a serious injury. But what do you think?
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Martin Prado, 2b/3b, Braves
Born: Oct. 27, 1983. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 190. Signed: Venezuela, 2001. Signed by: Rolando Petit/Julian Perez.
Prado is a classic example of a player who's better than his individual tools would suggest. He's an excellent contact hitter who finished second in the Triple-A International League batting race last year at .316, raising his career minor league average to .302. He has very good command of the strike zone and is considered to be the best two-strike hitters in the organization. While the Braves have given him 101 big league at-bats over the last two seasons, Prado doesn't have another tool that helps his cause in becoming a regular in the majors. His approach leads to very little power and his ability to make contact even cuts down on his walks. While he has slightly above-average speed, it doesn't translate into stolen bases. Defensively, neither his range nor his arm is overwhelming. He's as sure-handed as any infielder in the system and committed just six errors last year year. Prado does a solid job of turning double plays and is capable of playing second base, third base and shortstop. Though he lacks flash, Prado has impressed Atlanta manager Bobby Cox and will get a chance to help the Braves in a reserve role this year.
Born: Oct. 27, 1983. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 190. Signed: Venezuela, 2001. Signed by: Rolando Petit/Julian Perez.
Prado is a classic example of a player who's better than his individual tools would suggest. He's an excellent contact hitter who finished second in the Triple-A International League batting race last year at .316, raising his career minor league average to .302. He has very good command of the strike zone and is considered to be the best two-strike hitters in the organization. While the Braves have given him 101 big league at-bats over the last two seasons, Prado doesn't have another tool that helps his cause in becoming a regular in the majors. His approach leads to very little power and his ability to make contact even cuts down on his walks. While he has slightly above-average speed, it doesn't translate into stolen bases. Defensively, neither his range nor his arm is overwhelming. He's as sure-handed as any infielder in the system and committed just six errors last year year. Prado does a solid job of turning double plays and is capable of playing second base, third base and shortstop. Though he lacks flash, Prado has impressed Atlanta manager Bobby Cox and will get a chance to help the Braves in a reserve role this year.
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Year In Review: One of the very rare Latin talents in this system, Martinez struggled initially at High-A, but found his groove following a promotion to the Texas League.
The Good: Scouts like what they see in Martinez's bat. He has outstanding hand-eye coordination, rarely swings and misses, and shows surprising pop for his size. In the field, he has outstanding fundamentals, and makes the play on any ball he gets to.
The Bad: Despite his fielding acumen, Martinez is not more than an average runner, and lacks the first-step quickness to provide enough range to be a big-league shortstop. His feel for contact comes with an aggressive approach, and he needs to become a more selective hitter.
Fun Fact: In the eight games that Martinez hit leadoff for Double-A Springfield, he went 16-for-38 (.421) with four home runs.
Perfect World Projection: A solid everyday second baseman or outstanding utility player.
The Good: Scouts like what they see in Martinez's bat. He has outstanding hand-eye coordination, rarely swings and misses, and shows surprising pop for his size. In the field, he has outstanding fundamentals, and makes the play on any ball he gets to.
The Bad: Despite his fielding acumen, Martinez is not more than an average runner, and lacks the first-step quickness to provide enough range to be a big-league shortstop. His feel for contact comes with an aggressive approach, and he needs to become a more selective hitter.
Fun Fact: In the eight games that Martinez hit leadoff for Double-A Springfield, he went 16-for-38 (.421) with four home runs.
Perfect World Projection: A solid everyday second baseman or outstanding utility player.
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Bryan (Maryland): Who do you like better this year: King Felix or Tim Lincecum?
Will Carroll: For fantasy stats? Hernandez (and can he please win something before we crown him? Kthanx.) He'll have more wins with a better team and similar stats if he stays healthy.
For longevity? Lincecum.
If you made me a GM and gave me a choice? Lincecum.
Will Carroll: For fantasy stats? Hernandez (and can he please win something before we crown him? Kthanx.) He'll have more wins with a better team and similar stats if he stays healthy.
For longevity? Lincecum.
If you made me a GM and gave me a choice? Lincecum.
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2. Henry Sosa, RHP
DOB: 7/28/85
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2004, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: 0.73 ERA at Low-A (62-30-25-61); 4.38 ERA at High-A (63.2-66-36-78)
Year In Review: The lanky Dominican was among the best pitchers in the minors during the first half of the season, but he scuffled a bit following a promotion to the High-A California League.
The Good: Sosa has smooth mechanics and a lightning-fast arm, effortlessly throwing heat that sits in the 93-95 mph range, and routinely touching 97-98. He gets very good shape on his curveball, which ranks as a second plus pitch. He maintains his stuff deep into games, and he's a good athlete who fields his position well.
The Bad: Sosa's lack of a changeup is the biggest concern for his future. Not only is his change below average, but he has little confidence in the offering and rarely throws it in games. His control could also improve, and Cal League hitters had more success against him by simply working the count and forcing him into throwing his fastball.
Fun Fact: Sally League hitters facing Sosa with runners in scoring position and two outs went 2-for-34 with 11 strikeouts.
Perfect World Projection: Sosa's power arsenal and projection should play well in the big leagues, and if the changeup comes around he could be an above-average starter.
Timetable: Sosa's 2007 season represents the largest step forward in the system, but the Giants will slow him down a bit in 2008 by seeing if he can find some consistent success in the California League before getting to Double-A by the end of the year.
6. Nick Noonan, SS/2B
DOB: 5/4/89
Height/Weight: 6-0/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Parker HS (CA)
2007 Stats: .316/.357/.451 at Rookie-level (52 G)
Year In Review: One of the top middle infielders in the draft almost played his way into the first round, going 32nd overall, and then looked like he should have been taken even higher in his pro debut.
The Good: Noonan has the potential to beat you in many ways at the top of a lineup. His hitting approach is highly advanced for his age, and his quick bat and ideal swing mechanics project for him to hit for a high average with a high on-base percentage. He has gap power, and is also a well above-average runner who is dangerous on the basepaths.
The Bad: Noonan's defensive prowess doesn't match what he can do at the plate. His below-average instincts on the left side negatively impact his range, and his arm is average at best, leaving him a little short on plays to his right.
Fun Fact: When batting in the ninth inning of games for the AZL Giants, Noonan went 5-for-11 with two doubles, a triple, and a home run.
Perfect World Projection: An everyday second baseman who hits at the top of the lineup.
Timetable: Noonan is ready for a full-season assignment, but he'll likely move to second base this spring to accommodate fellow first-round pick Charlie Culberson, who is staying at shortstop.
DOB: 7/28/85
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2004, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: 0.73 ERA at Low-A (62-30-25-61); 4.38 ERA at High-A (63.2-66-36-78)
Year In Review: The lanky Dominican was among the best pitchers in the minors during the first half of the season, but he scuffled a bit following a promotion to the High-A California League.
The Good: Sosa has smooth mechanics and a lightning-fast arm, effortlessly throwing heat that sits in the 93-95 mph range, and routinely touching 97-98. He gets very good shape on his curveball, which ranks as a second plus pitch. He maintains his stuff deep into games, and he's a good athlete who fields his position well.
The Bad: Sosa's lack of a changeup is the biggest concern for his future. Not only is his change below average, but he has little confidence in the offering and rarely throws it in games. His control could also improve, and Cal League hitters had more success against him by simply working the count and forcing him into throwing his fastball.
Fun Fact: Sally League hitters facing Sosa with runners in scoring position and two outs went 2-for-34 with 11 strikeouts.
Perfect World Projection: Sosa's power arsenal and projection should play well in the big leagues, and if the changeup comes around he could be an above-average starter.
Timetable: Sosa's 2007 season represents the largest step forward in the system, but the Giants will slow him down a bit in 2008 by seeing if he can find some consistent success in the California League before getting to Double-A by the end of the year.
6. Nick Noonan, SS/2B
DOB: 5/4/89
Height/Weight: 6-0/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Parker HS (CA)
2007 Stats: .316/.357/.451 at Rookie-level (52 G)
Year In Review: One of the top middle infielders in the draft almost played his way into the first round, going 32nd overall, and then looked like he should have been taken even higher in his pro debut.
The Good: Noonan has the potential to beat you in many ways at the top of a lineup. His hitting approach is highly advanced for his age, and his quick bat and ideal swing mechanics project for him to hit for a high average with a high on-base percentage. He has gap power, and is also a well above-average runner who is dangerous on the basepaths.
The Bad: Noonan's defensive prowess doesn't match what he can do at the plate. His below-average instincts on the left side negatively impact his range, and his arm is average at best, leaving him a little short on plays to his right.
Fun Fact: When batting in the ninth inning of games for the AZL Giants, Noonan went 5-for-11 with two doubles, a triple, and a home run.
Perfect World Projection: An everyday second baseman who hits at the top of the lineup.
Timetable: Noonan is ready for a full-season assignment, but he'll likely move to second base this spring to accommodate fellow first-round pick Charlie Culberson, who is staying at shortstop.
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Cardinals
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The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies Under 25 (As Of Opening Day 2008)
1. Tim Lincecum, RHP
2. Matt Cain, RHP
3. Angel Villalona, 3B/1B
4. Henry Sosa, RHP
5. Tim Alderson, RHP
6. Madison Bumgarner, RHP
7. Wendell Fairly, OF
8. Nick Noonan, SS/2B
9. Nate Schierholtz, OF
10. John Bowker, OF
1. Tim Lincecum, RHP
2. Matt Cain, RHP
3. Angel Villalona, 3B/1B
4. Henry Sosa, RHP
5. Tim Alderson, RHP
6. Madison Bumgarner, RHP
7. Wendell Fairly, OF
8. Nick Noonan, SS/2B
9. Nate Schierholtz, OF
10. John Bowker, OF
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SLEEPER ALERT. The Cardinals drafted Craig in the eighth round in 2006, out of the University of California. As you can see, he has been very successful as a pro, and it's a bit of a puzzle why he's received so little attention. He has very good bat speed and power to all fields. His plate discipline needs work, and it's possible his batting average will drop off at higher levels, though the power should remain. He was one of the best hitters in the Florida State League last year, posting an excellent +26 percent OPS, ranking third in batting average, third in OPS, third in homers, and third in SLG. Defense is an issue. He has a strong arm, but lacks consistency with his footwork and has spent time at shortstop, outfield, and third base. He might end up at a corner outfield spot eventually if he can't settle down in the infield, but his bat will play there if current trends continue. He turns 24 in July so he needs to move quickly, but if you are looking for an under-the-radar hitter, Craig is a great candidate. Grade B-.
I think that lays it out pretty well. He has the arm for third base and perhaps additional reps will improve his range and reliability, though it seems unlikely he will become more than average defensively in the infield. If he hits well an average glove will be enough. It will be interesting to see what he does against a full season of advanced pitching, but my guess is that he'll continue to hit impressively in Double-A and Triple-A and may not be fully challenged until he sees major league pitchers.
PECOTA comps include guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff, Steve Pearce, and Mark Reynolds, but also Mark Quinn, Cole Liniak, and Russ Davis. We need to get more data from higher levels to see exactly where Craig stands, but he IS an unsung prospect, in the sense of deserving more attention than he has received.
I think that lays it out pretty well. He has the arm for third base and perhaps additional reps will improve his range and reliability, though it seems unlikely he will become more than average defensively in the infield. If he hits well an average glove will be enough. It will be interesting to see what he does against a full season of advanced pitching, but my guess is that he'll continue to hit impressively in Double-A and Triple-A and may not be fully challenged until he sees major league pitchers.
PECOTA comps include guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff, Steve Pearce, and Mark Reynolds, but also Mark Quinn, Cole Liniak, and Russ Davis. We need to get more data from higher levels to see exactly where Craig stands, but he IS an unsung prospect, in the sense of deserving more attention than he has received.
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Manager Ozzie Guillen said Wednesday that Gavin Floyd would be the White Sox's third starter if the season began now.
Guillen indicated that Javier Vazquez would likely get the Opening Day nod, with Mark Buehrle in the No. 2 spot, Floyd third, Jose Contreras fourth and John Danks fifth. "Gavin Floyd has the stuff to be the No. 2 pitcher," Guillen said. "Hopefully not too far away he can be a No. 1. But he has good enough stuff to be one of those guys."
Guillen indicated that Javier Vazquez would likely get the Opening Day nod, with Mark Buehrle in the No. 2 spot, Floyd third, Jose Contreras fourth and John Danks fifth. "Gavin Floyd has the stuff to be the No. 2 pitcher," Guillen said. "Hopefully not too far away he can be a No. 1. But he has good enough stuff to be one of those guys."
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