College Hoops Preview
Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 1:11 pm
SEND IT IN JEROME!! I was pretty excited to flip on the TV and see my favorite sports announcing team - Raftery, McDonough and Bilas - doing the UNC-Davidson game last night.
College basketball season is here, and as a Hoya fan, I'm even more excited than usual since Big Roy decided to stick around and give us a shot at a national title. Anybody see the cover of SI this week? Hibbert looks like he added some muscle. Unquestionably the best center in the country right now, and he seems to get better with every game.
If you read Jay Bilas's recent article on ESPN.com about how good college basketball could be if guys stayed for 3 or 4 years like they used to though, it'll make you wish the NBA had the same draft rules as the NFL. However, I think the new over-19 rule has definitely added to the game by allowing us to watch a guy like Durant play for a season. I also think that we'll see more guys staying for 2 and 3 years as a result. Guys like Paul Harris of Syracuse, who would have gone into the draft, will realize their freshman year that they're not as good as they thought they were, and need one or more years under the tutelage of a top coach to reach their potential. Imagine what some of the top teams would look like if more guys stayed through their junior/senior year (or went where they committed originally). How about adding Marvin Williams and Brandan Wright to the current UNC team? What if UConn had Rudy Gay, Marcus Williams and Andrew Bynum? How about Texas with LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Durant? Or if UF had it's whole team back (besides Lee Humphrey)?
Still, can't wait for the season. There are some very good teams this year. The Pac-10 is the consensus preseason best conference, but in my opinion since coaching (both X's + O's and recruiting) is more important in college basketball than in any other major sport, the conference with the best coaches will be the best conference this year, and for the foreseeable future. I realize I'm slightly biased as a Big East lifer (from CT and having gone to G'town), but it's hard to argue any other league has a roster of coaches like Calhoun, Pitino, Boeheim, Huggins, JTIII, Tom Crean, Jamie Dixon, Jay Wright, Jerry Wainwright, Mike Brey and Bobby Gonzalez. If you look at national recruiting lists, there are only a handful of schools whose names pop up as under consideration for the top few recruits each year: UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, UCLA, Texas (maybe), UConn, and now Louisville and Georgetown seem to appear as often as Carolina and Duke. Syracuse is always in the mix for top guys, and no doubt Huggins will have WVU in the hunt for a lot of elite recruits right away. There's just too much talent coming into the BE in the next few years for it not to be the top league. Georgetown already had a top-10 recruiting class for 08, and that was before they got a commit from #1 recruit Greg Monroe. The amount of talent Pitino has flooding into Louisville borders on ridiculous (I'd bet top unsigned 08 recruit Tyreke Evans signs there too), and UConn will always be in play for the elite guys.
As of right now, here's my 2007-2008 preseason top 10:
1. Memphis - if Derrick Rose is really as good as he looks against lesser competition, pairing him with Chris Douglas-Roberts is a filthy backcourt. Joey Dorsey might be enough frontcourt muscle to compete with teams that have more more offensively skilled post men. Tough non-conference schedule, and they'll have to win most of their nonconf. games against big time teams (like G'town) to get a #1 seed b/c UAB is the only other decent C-USA team.
2. Georgetown - the impact of losing Jeff Green is overrated when you have the nation's best C coming back, along with an underrated G like Jon Wallace, a budding star like DaJuan Summers, and one of the top 10 freshman SG in Austin Freeman. Arguably the 3rd best team in the nation last year (after UF and OSU), they're bringing back every major contributor besides Green, adding two top freshman guards, and making Hibbert the focal point of one of the most efficient offensive systems in college basketball. Their biggest issues last year were having enough outside shooting and committing too many turnovers. Making Wallace the SG and Sapp the PG, having DaJuan Summers (a better outside threat) replace Green in the rotation, and bringing in a freshman sniper like Freeman improves the outside shooting. Putting the ball in Hibbert's hands more often should also help limit turnovers. This team could very well be better than last year's Final Four team, despite losing it's best player.
3. UNC - a very good team, with a very good college player in Hansbrough who's probably slightly overhyped. They absolutely folded late in the game against G'town in the tourney. Ty Lawson's a skilled and lightning-quick PG though, so you can't count them out. They didn't look great against Davidson last night, but they still won, and Davidson's a good, well-coached team.
4. UCLA - I just don't know if you can win a national championship when you have to depend on a freshman (even a great one in Kevin Love) and Lorenzo Mata to play defense in the paint. Still, Howland knows how to get the absolute most out of his team, especially defensively. Afflalo was the go-to guy, so we'll see if Love or Collison is able to pick up that slack.
5. Louisville - Better than people think, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is Pitino's best all-around team since the famous '96 Kentucky squad. Derek Caracter could emerge as a star after he seems to have matured and committed to improving his game. PG Edgar Sosa dropped 30+ on a Billy Gillespie A&M team that was excellent defensively, and should be better. Throw in David Padgett, Terence Williams and Juan Palacios, and they've got arguably as much talent and depth as Memphis.
6. Kansas - Bill Self can recruit, but so far there's no indication he can coach his team to a title.
7. Tennessee - Chris Lofton can shoot the lights out, and if Ramar Smith takes a step forward at PG as a soph., they're dangerous.
8. Duke - They're just due to be good again. Losing McRoberts might be addition by subtraction b/c he wasn't great defensively, and just didn't have a versatile enough offensive game to be the go-to-guy at Duke, where there's so much talent. Paulus isn't a star, but a capable PG, and Nelson and Singler are both very talented.
9. Oregon - Losing Aaron Brooks hurts, but Hairston, Leunen and Tajuan Porter is a pretty nice nucleus coming back.
10. Indiana - Kelvin Sampson is a dirty recruiter and an overrated coach, but the combo of Eric Gordon and D.J. White will make him look smarter than he actually is. Is it me, or does Gordon only shoot NBA 3's (and not miss)?
Sleepers/Underrated (could crack top 15):
Syracuse - Boeheim's a great coach (not to mention egomaniacal and pissed about being snubbed last year), so if Paul Harris plays to the level of his talent (which is immense), and the two freshman contribute (especially Johnny Flynn can help replace the 3-pt. shooting of the injured Andy Rautins), they could surprise some people. A year away from contending for the top prize. P.S. I hate Eric Devendorf more than any college basketball player since Christian Laettner.
Kansas State - Michael Beasley won't continue to put up 30 pts. and 25 rebs. once the competition gets tougher, but Huggs left them in pretty good shape. Beasley and Bill Walker alone could carry this team to exceed expectations.
Texas A&M - Anybody who watched Wichita State the last couple of years knows Mark Turgeon's every bit as good a coach as the departed Gillespie. 7'0" freshman DeAndre Jordan might make them a Big 12 contender by himself.
UConn - Despite the program's worst season in 15 years, the Huskies were the best defensive team in the Big East, and led the nation in blocked shots for the 6th straight year. They had 9 new players, and no Jrs. or Srs. They still might not be a great shooting team, but Calhoun plans to press and run a lot more this season (more like the pre-Okafor teams did), so if they can get some scoring from Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson and double-double machine Jeff Adrien, they could exceed expectations.
Overrated
Michigan State - The BigTen is in a down cycle, and unlike in previous years, MSU's non-conference schedule doesn't feature any elite teams (Texas, Bradley, BYU and NC St. are their best foes). Drew Neitzel is overrated - a good college player who hits big shots (a la Gerry McNamara) but talent-wise isn't a difference-maker when matching up with elite guards. Izzo's still a good coach, so they'll win their share of reg. season games, but be a dissappointment in the tourney.
Marquette - they have a solid backcourt with McNeal and James, and an excellent head coach, but I'm officially off the Dominic James bandwagon. He's a good player, but if you want to win with an undersized and under-talented frontcourt, your best player has to be a better shooter. James was terrible from 3pt. and at the free throw line, and as great a defensive backcourt as he and Jerel McNeal will be, they'll really struggle against bigger teams.
USC - Tim Floyd's an excellent college coach, and O.J. Mayo's got loads of talent, but not talented enough to overcome their lack of experience. Starting 2 freshman and 3 sophs makes a deep tourney run difficult, especially since the Pac-10 is pretty good and young players tend to struggle when they start playing conference road games.
Super deep sleepers teams (could break into top 25):
UAB - Lost in all the controversy and expectations at IU was the fact that Mike Davis is a very good basketball coach who took his team to a national championship game. Robert Vaden followed him to UAB, and the Blazers should be the 2nd best team in C-USA.
Providence - they lost Herbert Hill to the NBA, but they still have Sharaud Curry, Geoff McDermott (a very good passing forward) and Weyinmi Efijuku. Efijuku was an absolutely explosive scorer at times last year, and if Tim Welsh can get a more consistent effort out of him this season, they could upset a few teams in the Big East and make a run at the NCAA tourney.
Virginia - Maybe going out on a limb here, but I really like the coaching job Dave Leitao has done there. The glow of the new John Paul Jones center hasn't worn off yet, and they return their best player in Sean Singletary. Since I don't think the ACC is particularly strong after UNC and Duke, UVA has a chance to make some noise again.
Any other college basketball addicts out there? If not, I'll still probably entertain myself with massive rambling posts about the most exciting season in sports all the way through March, so enjoy (or ignore - if you prefer sports where the champion isn't determined by actually playing the games).
College basketball season is here, and as a Hoya fan, I'm even more excited than usual since Big Roy decided to stick around and give us a shot at a national title. Anybody see the cover of SI this week? Hibbert looks like he added some muscle. Unquestionably the best center in the country right now, and he seems to get better with every game.
If you read Jay Bilas's recent article on ESPN.com about how good college basketball could be if guys stayed for 3 or 4 years like they used to though, it'll make you wish the NBA had the same draft rules as the NFL. However, I think the new over-19 rule has definitely added to the game by allowing us to watch a guy like Durant play for a season. I also think that we'll see more guys staying for 2 and 3 years as a result. Guys like Paul Harris of Syracuse, who would have gone into the draft, will realize their freshman year that they're not as good as they thought they were, and need one or more years under the tutelage of a top coach to reach their potential. Imagine what some of the top teams would look like if more guys stayed through their junior/senior year (or went where they committed originally). How about adding Marvin Williams and Brandan Wright to the current UNC team? What if UConn had Rudy Gay, Marcus Williams and Andrew Bynum? How about Texas with LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Durant? Or if UF had it's whole team back (besides Lee Humphrey)?
Still, can't wait for the season. There are some very good teams this year. The Pac-10 is the consensus preseason best conference, but in my opinion since coaching (both X's + O's and recruiting) is more important in college basketball than in any other major sport, the conference with the best coaches will be the best conference this year, and for the foreseeable future. I realize I'm slightly biased as a Big East lifer (from CT and having gone to G'town), but it's hard to argue any other league has a roster of coaches like Calhoun, Pitino, Boeheim, Huggins, JTIII, Tom Crean, Jamie Dixon, Jay Wright, Jerry Wainwright, Mike Brey and Bobby Gonzalez. If you look at national recruiting lists, there are only a handful of schools whose names pop up as under consideration for the top few recruits each year: UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, UCLA, Texas (maybe), UConn, and now Louisville and Georgetown seem to appear as often as Carolina and Duke. Syracuse is always in the mix for top guys, and no doubt Huggins will have WVU in the hunt for a lot of elite recruits right away. There's just too much talent coming into the BE in the next few years for it not to be the top league. Georgetown already had a top-10 recruiting class for 08, and that was before they got a commit from #1 recruit Greg Monroe. The amount of talent Pitino has flooding into Louisville borders on ridiculous (I'd bet top unsigned 08 recruit Tyreke Evans signs there too), and UConn will always be in play for the elite guys.
As of right now, here's my 2007-2008 preseason top 10:
1. Memphis - if Derrick Rose is really as good as he looks against lesser competition, pairing him with Chris Douglas-Roberts is a filthy backcourt. Joey Dorsey might be enough frontcourt muscle to compete with teams that have more more offensively skilled post men. Tough non-conference schedule, and they'll have to win most of their nonconf. games against big time teams (like G'town) to get a #1 seed b/c UAB is the only other decent C-USA team.
2. Georgetown - the impact of losing Jeff Green is overrated when you have the nation's best C coming back, along with an underrated G like Jon Wallace, a budding star like DaJuan Summers, and one of the top 10 freshman SG in Austin Freeman. Arguably the 3rd best team in the nation last year (after UF and OSU), they're bringing back every major contributor besides Green, adding two top freshman guards, and making Hibbert the focal point of one of the most efficient offensive systems in college basketball. Their biggest issues last year were having enough outside shooting and committing too many turnovers. Making Wallace the SG and Sapp the PG, having DaJuan Summers (a better outside threat) replace Green in the rotation, and bringing in a freshman sniper like Freeman improves the outside shooting. Putting the ball in Hibbert's hands more often should also help limit turnovers. This team could very well be better than last year's Final Four team, despite losing it's best player.
3. UNC - a very good team, with a very good college player in Hansbrough who's probably slightly overhyped. They absolutely folded late in the game against G'town in the tourney. Ty Lawson's a skilled and lightning-quick PG though, so you can't count them out. They didn't look great against Davidson last night, but they still won, and Davidson's a good, well-coached team.
4. UCLA - I just don't know if you can win a national championship when you have to depend on a freshman (even a great one in Kevin Love) and Lorenzo Mata to play defense in the paint. Still, Howland knows how to get the absolute most out of his team, especially defensively. Afflalo was the go-to guy, so we'll see if Love or Collison is able to pick up that slack.
5. Louisville - Better than people think, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is Pitino's best all-around team since the famous '96 Kentucky squad. Derek Caracter could emerge as a star after he seems to have matured and committed to improving his game. PG Edgar Sosa dropped 30+ on a Billy Gillespie A&M team that was excellent defensively, and should be better. Throw in David Padgett, Terence Williams and Juan Palacios, and they've got arguably as much talent and depth as Memphis.
6. Kansas - Bill Self can recruit, but so far there's no indication he can coach his team to a title.
7. Tennessee - Chris Lofton can shoot the lights out, and if Ramar Smith takes a step forward at PG as a soph., they're dangerous.
8. Duke - They're just due to be good again. Losing McRoberts might be addition by subtraction b/c he wasn't great defensively, and just didn't have a versatile enough offensive game to be the go-to-guy at Duke, where there's so much talent. Paulus isn't a star, but a capable PG, and Nelson and Singler are both very talented.
9. Oregon - Losing Aaron Brooks hurts, but Hairston, Leunen and Tajuan Porter is a pretty nice nucleus coming back.
10. Indiana - Kelvin Sampson is a dirty recruiter and an overrated coach, but the combo of Eric Gordon and D.J. White will make him look smarter than he actually is. Is it me, or does Gordon only shoot NBA 3's (and not miss)?
Sleepers/Underrated (could crack top 15):
Syracuse - Boeheim's a great coach (not to mention egomaniacal and pissed about being snubbed last year), so if Paul Harris plays to the level of his talent (which is immense), and the two freshman contribute (especially Johnny Flynn can help replace the 3-pt. shooting of the injured Andy Rautins), they could surprise some people. A year away from contending for the top prize. P.S. I hate Eric Devendorf more than any college basketball player since Christian Laettner.
Kansas State - Michael Beasley won't continue to put up 30 pts. and 25 rebs. once the competition gets tougher, but Huggs left them in pretty good shape. Beasley and Bill Walker alone could carry this team to exceed expectations.
Texas A&M - Anybody who watched Wichita State the last couple of years knows Mark Turgeon's every bit as good a coach as the departed Gillespie. 7'0" freshman DeAndre Jordan might make them a Big 12 contender by himself.
UConn - Despite the program's worst season in 15 years, the Huskies were the best defensive team in the Big East, and led the nation in blocked shots for the 6th straight year. They had 9 new players, and no Jrs. or Srs. They still might not be a great shooting team, but Calhoun plans to press and run a lot more this season (more like the pre-Okafor teams did), so if they can get some scoring from Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson and double-double machine Jeff Adrien, they could exceed expectations.
Overrated
Michigan State - The BigTen is in a down cycle, and unlike in previous years, MSU's non-conference schedule doesn't feature any elite teams (Texas, Bradley, BYU and NC St. are their best foes). Drew Neitzel is overrated - a good college player who hits big shots (a la Gerry McNamara) but talent-wise isn't a difference-maker when matching up with elite guards. Izzo's still a good coach, so they'll win their share of reg. season games, but be a dissappointment in the tourney.
Marquette - they have a solid backcourt with McNeal and James, and an excellent head coach, but I'm officially off the Dominic James bandwagon. He's a good player, but if you want to win with an undersized and under-talented frontcourt, your best player has to be a better shooter. James was terrible from 3pt. and at the free throw line, and as great a defensive backcourt as he and Jerel McNeal will be, they'll really struggle against bigger teams.
USC - Tim Floyd's an excellent college coach, and O.J. Mayo's got loads of talent, but not talented enough to overcome their lack of experience. Starting 2 freshman and 3 sophs makes a deep tourney run difficult, especially since the Pac-10 is pretty good and young players tend to struggle when they start playing conference road games.
Super deep sleepers teams (could break into top 25):
UAB - Lost in all the controversy and expectations at IU was the fact that Mike Davis is a very good basketball coach who took his team to a national championship game. Robert Vaden followed him to UAB, and the Blazers should be the 2nd best team in C-USA.
Providence - they lost Herbert Hill to the NBA, but they still have Sharaud Curry, Geoff McDermott (a very good passing forward) and Weyinmi Efijuku. Efijuku was an absolutely explosive scorer at times last year, and if Tim Welsh can get a more consistent effort out of him this season, they could upset a few teams in the Big East and make a run at the NCAA tourney.
Virginia - Maybe going out on a limb here, but I really like the coaching job Dave Leitao has done there. The glow of the new John Paul Jones center hasn't worn off yet, and they return their best player in Sean Singletary. Since I don't think the ACC is particularly strong after UNC and Duke, UVA has a chance to make some noise again.
Any other college basketball addicts out there? If not, I'll still probably entertain myself with massive rambling posts about the most exciting season in sports all the way through March, so enjoy (or ignore - if you prefer sports where the champion isn't determined by actually playing the games).