IBC

Matt had approached me about a deal for Votto after he said talks with several other GMs hadn't gotten very far. I hadn't given the possibility of Votto much thought at all, since I didn't have what I felt was a real need there - but I asked him how he thought a deal like this might go.

He immediately said it would start with a 3B, a glaring position of need for him.

I happen to have 2 very good third baseman so after looking into it I put both Lamb and Suarez on the table. I asked what else he would want and he said another piece and a very good prospect. This was the initial basis of the deal.

At this time yesterday Fangraphs had Suarez, as the 2nd overall 3b in baseball by war, and he was the top defensively. These have since been updated, but Matt can confirm this as well. Take a look at his numbers, I think those who are objecting to Suarez have really been sleeping on what he's been doing this year as a 25 year old in MLB.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &players=0

Grichuk is a legitimate power bat who can hit 30HR a year if given enough AB and play all 3 OF positions. He's struggled this year for sure, but his track record is better than an abysmal month of May. He's only 25 and the talent is there to be a very good OF.

I offered Jason Groome, our overall #3 pick in the IBC draft, and the #3 rated player by BA in their top 500 prospects for the 2016 draft. He was also widely considered to be perhaps the best player for 2016 during the lead up to draft day. I don't think his talent should be in question here, nor do I think he won't move up these rankings rather quickly - most pltchers land appropriately in that 40 range of BA's top 100 while they get their careers started.

Junior Fernandez is a former top 10 Cardinals prospect who's stuff is pretty undeniable. Fastball tops 100mph. Changup flashes plus. Slider needs some work. So does his command. But he's one of the youngest players in the FSL if I recall correctly. He's got a high ceiling and pretty safe floor as a late inning guy/closer with more reps.

I don't need to say much about Votto, he's great. But he's 33, not getting any younger and plays perhaps the 2nd least valuable position on the defensive spectrum - and even then he doesn't play D superbly. His value is tied solely in his bat. And while there's great value there, I think Eugenio it can be argued is every bit as valuable at a far more important position defensively.

I look at this deal like this:

Suarez and Grichuk for Votto is a fair deal by itself IMO.

And the other components, Groome and Fernandez for Martes(who's walking 7.28 per 9 with a 4.55 ERA btw) is also a fair deal.

I asked for Martes in this deal because Im getting an aging Votto who's value lies solely in his bat, while giving up 4 guys age 25 and younger. I wanted a piece back that was young and might help my rotation in the next year or two. If I'm trading for Votto, my rotation also needs to get better. Marte is a chance at that, while sending Groome back offsets the loss for Matt.

All in all, I think this deal is more than fair, especially with how good Suarez has been this year. It helps Matt with some pieces to build around, and I get a step closer to brining my team to contention. I think its a win for both of us in a lot of respects if you look beyond just name recognition of Votto.

In my opinion Eugenio is, based on his 3 year trend, a better player than I was getting offered. I've followed and liked Eugenio since he came up and I feel like he could be a top rated NL 3B in the years to come, plus hes entering his prime years. And hes rated and performing very well defensively. Maybe he doesn't have "name recognition" that some other prospects or young guys do, but hes performed and improved each year. I felt like he is a cornerstone player I can build around for the next several years.

Grichuk was prob the biggest risk, but I took into account his performance in SIM this year. Very good. Now he did get sent down to clear his head, and he usually bounces back when recalled. If he gets his head right, which I'm banking on, and the Cards let him play (or another organization) he can take off. He has legit power just needs to get his head right and be left to play. And again another player entering his prime years.

Groome is #41 on BA top 100. Young but should be a top end rotation guy when developed.

Fernandez is young but I think will develop into a stud reliever when ready. (Cards have a history of developing these kind of players)

So I felt like Groome offset Martes, and the other 3 offset Votto, who incidentally is good but not great in the SIM.

This trade has no business passing.

Matt joined the league in the middle of March, so he’s been here for less than three months, and came with no sim experience — which is perfectly fine. It’s not a prerequisite for entering the league, but it does mean that the learning curve is going to take a bit longer.

Votto is in his age 33 season, but he is one of the game’s very best players. He’s off to another torrid start, hitting .283/.410/.576 (through 5/31), with 14 homers and a 17% walk rate against a 12% K-Rate.

I don’t need to sing Votto’s praises. We all know how great he is.

The return is laughable.

Suarez is off to a fine start. He’s hitting .288/.365/.516. He’s also doing most of his damage at home, and GABP is an excellent park to hit in. On the road, Suarez is hitting .263/.340/.368.

Worse yet, Suarez’s hot start has cooled considerably. He’s hitting .255/.325/.411 in the month of May, which is much more in line with his career numbers coming into this year, which had him at .257/.316/.406.

He is not a cornerstone player. He’s a secondary piece at best. Once Senzel arrives, he’ll be moved off 3B as well.

Randal Grichuk is… not good. The Cardinals can’t hit in the MLB, and they optioned him to High A. He’s been worth -0.4 WAR this year. That’s bad. Very bad. His projection is going to be poor. He doesn’t walk, strikes out about 30% of the time, and was moved off CF to make room for Fowler this year.

Jay Groome is a nice prospect, and the best part of the return. He was hammered in his first start and sidelined with a lat strain since. Still, he’s a legitimate top 100 prospect, but he is a long way away from contributing. At least half of this season will be lost for him.

Junior Fernandez is a wild card, and a solid prospect for the Cards. He’s not great, though, but he’s fine. He’s struck out 37 in 55 innings as a 20-year-old in A+. He has a 1.31 WHIP. He’s fine. Matt is banking on him turning into a “stud RP.” You don’t deal Votto to get relievers.

The four of them combined isn’t enough for Votto, but Matt added Frances Marte too, who is a better prospect than Junior Fernandez.

Essentially, this trade was made banking on 93 PA from Suarez in April and ignoring the rest of his career, and the future that he’ll have when he’s not a third baseman.

I think Matt can be a good GM. But I think he needs to learn how the league works a bit more. In his defense, he cites Grichuk’s sim numbers, which are obviously inflated because of Coors Field, and Votto’s poor IBC numbers. Neither of those should matter for a team that’s not making the playoffs. It’s clear he does not know how projections or valuations work, which again, is fine. He hasn’t been here for even three months.

But he’s a new GM, and we review trades to protect new GMs. This is one of those cases where he needs to be protected for his own good. Votto is too good of a player to move for a fringe player off to a good start in Suarez and a top 50 prospect who has pitched an inning in 2017.

Rockies wrote:JP wrote the trade objection and calls Grichuk a poor player, but wanted to trade for him yesterday? As you said, let's not get into a pissing contest, but how is this not bias right there?