Positional Breakdown

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Positional Breakdown

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Starting Pitching:
Matt Wisler - 22 - 10-5, 4.42 era, 1.36 whip, 136/146.2 k/ip (AA/AAA)
Clayton Blackburn - 21 - 5-7, 3.31 era, 1.20 whip, 94/98 k/ip (AA)
Eduardo Rodriguez - 21 - 6-8, 3.60 era, 1.31 whip, 108/120 k/ip (AA)
Steven Matz - 23 - 10-9, 2.24 era, 1.19 whip, 131/140.2 k/ip (HA/AA)
ChiChi Gonzalez - 23 - 12-6, 2.67 era, 1.19 whip, 113/138 k/ip (HA/AA)
Ben Lively - 22 - 13-7, 3.04 era, 1.12 whip, 171/151 k/ip (HA/AA)
Lucas Sims - 20 - 8-11, 4.19 era, 1.30 whip, 107/156.2 k/ip (HA)
Kohl Stewart - 20 - 3-5, 2.59 era, 1.14 whip, 62/87 k/ip (A)
Lewis Thorpe - 18 - 3-2, 3.52 era, 1.37 whip, 80/71.2 k/ip (A)
Duane Underwood - 20 - 6-4, 2.50 era, 1.20 whip, 84/100.2 k/ip (A)
Grant Holmes - 18 - 2-3, 3.72 era, 1.08 whip, 58/48.1 k/ip (Rk/LA)
Justin Steele - 18 - 0-0, 2.95 era, 1.26 whip, 25/18.1 k/ip (Rk)

2015 Rotation:
Steven Matz
Clayton Blackburn
Ben Lively
Matt Wisler
Eduardo Rodriguez

The 2015 rotation is solid 1-4, so I'll probably go with a 4 man rotation. The depth is pretty crappy, as Rodriguez, Sims, and Gonzalez have crap SIMS. So long as 1-4 can stay healthy, I'll be in a lot of games (and probably lose them, but, in them).

2017 Rotation:
Eduardo Rodriguez
ChiChi Gonzalez
Steven Matz
Matt Wisler
Lucas Sims

This is exciting...and conservative. Rodriguez and Gonzalez have both been outstanding this spring, showing the stuff that rocketed them up prospect charts at the end of last year. Matz also ceilings as a #2, which makes the front of the rotation very strong. Wisler and Sims are less sexy, but both have mid-rotation upside at the back of the rotation. This doesn't include the development of Top 100 youngsters like Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe, or Grant Holmes...nor does it include back-end, high-floors like Clayton Blackburn and Ben Lively.
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Relief Pitching:
Mike Morin - 23 - 4-4, 2.90 era, 1.19 whip, 8.2 k/9, 3.08 fip (MLB)
Josh Edgin - 28 - 1-0, 1.32 era, 0.92 whip, 9.2 k/9, 2.69 fip (MLB)
Tim Collins - 25 - 2-1, 2.76 era, 0.99 whip, 56/42.1 k/ip (AAA)
R.J. Alvarez - 23 - 0-1, 1.25 era, 0.97 whip, 61/43.1 k/ip (AA), 0-0, 1.13 era, 1.00 whip, 10.1 k/9, 3.13 fip (MLB)
Chasen Shreve - 24 - 3-2, 2.48 era, 0.98 whip, 87/64 k/ip (AA/AAA)
Sam Tuivailala - 21 - 2-2, 3.15 era, 1.25 whip, 14.6 k/9 (HA/AA/AAA)
Kaleb Fleck - 25 - 7-3, 2.56 era, 1.31 whip, 79/63.1 k/ip (AA)
Dixon Llorens - 21 - 0-1, 3.02 era, 1.28 whip, 15.1 k/9 (HA/AA)
Daniel Coulombe - 25 - 3-0, 2.89 era, 1.19 whip, 92/65.1 k/ip (HA/AA)

2015 Pen:
R.J. Alvarez
Mike Morin
Chasen Shreve
Sam Tuivailala
Dixon Llorens
Daniel Coulombe

Strong but not killer bullpen. Features a lot of strikeouts across the board, but will certainly lead to some wild finishes based on command problems...also across the board.

2017 Pen:
R.J. Alvarez
Sam Tuivalala
Dixon Llorens
Chasen Shreve
Mike Morin
Tim Collins

This pen, once matured, should be very good. Alvarez and Tuivalala have closer upside, while Llorens and Shreve are legit 8th inning arms. Morin and Collins will be more mature, and very solid in the 6th/7th innings. This six doesn't include big K upsides like Coulombe and Edgin, nor top relief prospect Fleck. This could be a major strength when I'm ready to contend.
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Catcher:
Josh Phegley - 26 - c - .274/.331/.530 (AAA)
Rafael Lopez - 27 - c - .290/.390/.386 (AA/AAA)
Blake Swihart - 22 - c - .293/.341/.469 (AA/AAA)
Francisco Mejia - 19 - c - .282/.339/.407 (LA)
Jakson Reetz - 19 - c - .274/.429/.368 (Rk)

2015 Starter & Backup:
Blake Swihart
Josh Phegley

Swihart had a strong SIM after continued progress all the way to one of the top prospects in the game in 2014. He'll be an MLB starter in 2016, whereas Phegley will see significant ab's there this season. His spring justifies him as a big power, big strikeout guy. Rafael Lopez will provide good depth as a solid D, good obp guy.

2017 Starter & Backup:
Blake Swihart
Josh Phegley

By this time, Swihart will be a starting C with above average tools across the board. Phegley as the backup here is hopefully conservative, though I do believe he has 2nd division starter potential with his pop and defense. Mejia's profile continues to explode with scouts, while Reetz has a big time profile. Catchers have a very slow burn, so I'm not counting on either by then...but this could be a huge area of strength down the line.
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First Base:
Justin Smoak - 27 - 1b - .202/.275/.339, -0.6 WAR (MLB), .337/.422/.502 (AAA)
Greg Bird - 21 - 1b - .271/.376/.472 (HA/AA)
Dan Vogelbach - 21 - 1b - .268/.357/.429 (A)
Mike Olt - 26 - 1b/3b - .160/.248/.356, -0.8 WAR (MLB), .302/.348/.585 (AAA)

2015 Starter:

Justin Smoak

Smoak has shown his power again this spring, and should have a consistent role in a deep Blue Jays lineup. He's still a ways from his prospect days, but this season sees him out of Seattle and in a deeper lineup...probably his best chance to break out to date. Bird, Vogelbach, & Olt will provide depth, as all have usable SIMS.

2017 Starter:
Greg Bird

I'm buying on Bird in a big way. Even his critics see him as a high-obp, 20-25 homer talent at Yankee Stadium. He may never be a #3 or #4 hitter, but his floor is probably a #5 or #6...and I'll take that for sure. Smoak and Olt won't be out of their 20's by this time, so there's still potential for both former top prospects (great spring for Olt, too). Vogelbach is the upside play here, as he has big boy raw power...but the body and athleticism of a DH.
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Second Base:
Jonathan Schoop - 22 - 2b - .209/.244/.354, 1.6 WAR (MLB)
Dilson Herrera - 20 - 2b - .220/.303/.407, 0.2 WAR (MLB), .323/.379/.479 (HA/AA)
Rob Refsnyder - 23 - 2b/cof - .318/.387/.497 (AA/AAA)
Wilmer Difo - 22 - 2b/ss - .315/.360/.470 (A)
Fernando Perez - 21 - 2b/3b - .284/.322/.454 (A)
Joshua Morgan - 19 - 2b/ss - .322/.436/.347 (Rk/A)

2015 Starter:
Jonathan Schoop

Herrera will see ab's for me at 2b for sure, but Schoop will most likely get the bulk of playing time. Refsnyder and Difo provide solid depth with their decent SIM's. This will be a slightly below average position for me in 2015.

2017 Starter:
Dilson Herrera

Won't be a below average position for long, though. Herrera has asserted himself as one of the top 2b prospects in the game, while Schoop continues to intrigue people with his defense and big boy pop. Refsnyder won't stop hitting, and Difo opened a ton of eyes in Nats camp this spring. Perez and Morgan may not be ready by this time, but both feature MLB profiles. The future is very bright for the IBC Nats 2b position.
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Shortstop:
Eugenio Suarez - 23 - ss - .242/.316/.336, 0.4 WAR, .288/.360/.510 (AA/AAA)
Daniel Robertson - 20 - ss/3b - .310/.402/.471 (HA)
Jorge Mateo - 19 - ss - .276/.354/.397 (Rk)
Wilmer Difo - 22 - 2b/ss - .315/.360/.470 (A)
Joshua Morgan - 19 - 2b/ss - .322/.436/.347 (Rk/A)

2015 Starter:
Eugenio Suarez

With an above average SIM for 2015, and a consistent MiLB track record of a non-empty bat, Suarez was an excellent recent pickup for me. Worst case, he profiles as an average MLB starter as SS, with the potential for a first division profile. Robertson and Difo both got strong SIMs, and turned big heads in their respective camps.

2017 Starter:
Daniel Robertson

This is less conservative than I'll be at other spots, but I do believe that Robertson can maintain AV defense at SS, even if the Rays play him around the diamond. His bat has turned heads again this spring, after a monster breakout last year, and he profiles as a plus offensive force across the board. If Robertson can't get an AV rating defensively, I've still got Suarez to fall back on...and that's pretty comforting. Difo is cranking up his prospect status after a wonderful 2014. He turned heads in Nats camp this spring not just with his bat, but also with his glove at SS...forcing the Nats to openly seriously consider him as a potential Desmond replacement as soon as next season. Morgan is a nice prospect, but more of a utility play until he proves he can handle a position defensively. I'm not sure Mateo will be ready for 2017, as he'll be a very slow burn, but he has the skills to be an All-Star SS...and, given our depth at the position, we'll happily wait.
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Third Base:
Jake Lamb - 24 - 3b - .230/.263/.373, 0.0 WAR (MLB), .327/.407/.566 (AA/AAA)
Daniel Robertson - 20 - ss/3b - .310/.402/.471 (HA)
Mike Olt - 26 - 1b/3b - .160/.248/.356, -0.8 WAR (MLB), .302/.348/.585 (AAA)
Fernando Perez - 21 - 2b/3b - .284/.322/.454 (A)

2015 Starter:
Jake Lamb

Lamb and Olt will put me well below average at 3b in 2015. Lamb is competent and Olt provides some pop...but it's a tough profile for 2015. Trading Cecchini certainly put a dent here in the short run.

2017 Starter:
Jake Lamb

I buy Lamb, in a big way. He held his own in the MLB after absolutely destroying AA/AAA. He came to camp this spring determined to outplay Tomas...and he's crushed him offensively and defensively to date. Speaking of coming to camp with something to prove, Olt is another guy who'll be interesting to watch this season. Reports from camp have been strong, and his power has played...just like his time in the minors last year. There's a good chance Robertson will have 3b availability going forward, so he'll continue to be an option here. Perez is high-risk, high-reward with his big-time bat speed, but I'm not counting on much until he plays his way into my plans.
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Left Field:
Travis Snider - 26 - cof - .264/.338/.438, 2.1 WAR (MLB)
Stephen Piscotty - 23 - cof - .288/.355/.406 (AAA)
Billy McKinney - 20 - cof - .264/.354/.412 (HA)
Derek Fisher - 21 - cof - .310/.386/.419 (Rk/LA)
Rob Refsnyder - 23 - 2b/cof - .318/.387/.497 (AA/AAA)

2015 Starter:
Travis Snider

After a killer close to the 2014 season and a decent SIM, Snider gets the nod in LF for this season. He'll be completely average to slightly below, with Refsnyder potentially taking some ab's away from him.

2017 Starter:
Stephen Piscotty

Piscotty is more of an RF by trade, but I'm hoping he can get eligibility here. He has one of the best hit tools in the minors, with most scouts believing he'll develop power. He's also a good athlete and solid fielder. McKinney profiles with a little less power than Piscotty, but he's definitely an LF, and he has just as good a hit tool as Piscotty. Snider will still be in his 20's, so potentially an option here. Refsnyder won't stop hitting and has an LF profile if he's not a 2b. Fisher is one to get excited about...and could even be ready by 2017. He's an LF and a great athlete who profiles as above average offensively and defensively across the board.
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Center Field:
Slade Heathcott - 24 - cf - .182/.250/.242 (AA)
Kyle Wren - 23 - cf - .290/.350/.365, 46 sb (HA/AA)
David Dahl - 20 - cf - .299/.335/.492 (A/HA)
Derek Hill - 19 - cf - .208/.296/.295 (Rk/LA)

2015 Starter:
David Dahl

Dahl will already be an above average SIM for the 2015 season...which his exciting because it's just the tipping point. Wren offers defense and speed as his backup. Heathcott offers nothing.

2017 Starter:
David Dahl

Dahl is the longest held prospect from my team turnover. He's a dynamic CF, who has one of the best hit tools in the minors that he pairs with developing power. He's a potential 5-tool CF who can hit in the middle of an MLB lineup...especially in Colorado. Wren is not an overly sexy backup, but he offers solid defense and fantastic speed...and he can get on base. Heathcott was a recent pickup and is a total flier. He's a dynamic prospect who can never stay on the field...and is on his last chance before minor league free agency sets in. Totally healthy, his spring has been off the charts...showcasing everything that made him a top 100 prospect in the first place. If he can stay on the field, this could be a good get. Derek Hill is already a top 100 potential prospect who is a potential Gold Glove winner in CF with an excellent leadoff profile...but probably will not be 2017 ready.
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Right Field:
Travis Snider - 26 - cof - .264/.338/.438, 2.1 WAR (MLB)
Stephen Piscotty - 23 - cof - .288/.355/.406 (AAA)
Domingo Santana - 22 - cof - .296/.384/.474 (AAA)
Hunter Renfroe - 22 - cof - .267/.342/.470 (HA/AA)

2015 Starter:

Stephen Piscotty

Piscotty gets the nod here and will be average at best. Snider will start in left, but provide some cover in right. Santana and Renfroe both got usable SIMs, but they won't be good.

2017 Starter:
Hunter Renfroe

Every scout who sees Renfroe says the same essential things. He may not hit for much average, but he's got a good approach, big big boy power, and is a good RF. I'm incredibly excited about placing him in the #4 hole. Snider will still be in his 20's so there's still hope. Piscotty may not get an LF rating, which would make this decision really tough. Santana keeps proving that he can't hit MLB pitching, but he's still a 21 year old who crushed AAA last year. All we need is just a little patience...
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