What are you good at drafting?
Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:43 pm
This isn't particularly scientific, but I've always thought that I was better at drafting position players than pitchers, and I typically find myself picking younger players than I necessarily intend to going into drafts. I was curious what the reality is and since I just did my ninth draft I'm starting to have a semi-usable sample size. So, I kept it very simple but counted up where I seem to do better in the draft.
I didn't weight it for round, but it all evens out pretty well - for example pitchers have been 40% of my first rounders and my pitching draft picks have actually slanted a bit toward the top of the draft.
I did 2005-2011 and only used three categories:
Miss - guys who aren't legit big leaguers and don't project to be (guys like Vin Mazzaro and Alex White would fall here, even though Mazzaro was a useful reliever last year and White could still get healthy and be useful.)
Hit - guys who are legit big leaguers or project to be (includes big hits)
Big Hit - guys who are quality big league players or project to be (this is where recency is a problem, as I included both Rougned Odor and Jurickson Profar and odds are that one of them won't be a quality regular)
I have no idea what should be considered good drafting in our system, so I'm only considering how good I am at picking one type compared to another.
Results
Old - Hit: 35%, Big Hit: 6%
Yng - Hit: 38%, Big Hit: 28%
NA - Hit: 34%, Big Hit: 20%
Intl - Hit: 45%, Big Hit: 27%
Pos - Hit: 52%, Big Hit: 35%
Pitc - Hit: 22%, Big Hit: 9%
So, my conclusions are:
1. I get a little better value picking international guys but nothing huge.
2. I get useful old/young at about the same rate but get key guys much more often with the teens.
3. Yeah, I am way, way better at picking position players.
Old is 20+, Yng is 19 and under.
We started drafting amateur international guys in 2006.
Here are my actual drafts: viewtopic.php?t=2032
I didn't weight it for round, but it all evens out pretty well - for example pitchers have been 40% of my first rounders and my pitching draft picks have actually slanted a bit toward the top of the draft.
I did 2005-2011 and only used three categories:
Miss - guys who aren't legit big leaguers and don't project to be (guys like Vin Mazzaro and Alex White would fall here, even though Mazzaro was a useful reliever last year and White could still get healthy and be useful.)
Hit - guys who are legit big leaguers or project to be (includes big hits)
Big Hit - guys who are quality big league players or project to be (this is where recency is a problem, as I included both Rougned Odor and Jurickson Profar and odds are that one of them won't be a quality regular)
I have no idea what should be considered good drafting in our system, so I'm only considering how good I am at picking one type compared to another.
Results
Old - Hit: 35%, Big Hit: 6%
Yng - Hit: 38%, Big Hit: 28%
NA - Hit: 34%, Big Hit: 20%
Intl - Hit: 45%, Big Hit: 27%
Pos - Hit: 52%, Big Hit: 35%
Pitc - Hit: 22%, Big Hit: 9%
So, my conclusions are:
1. I get a little better value picking international guys but nothing huge.
2. I get useful old/young at about the same rate but get key guys much more often with the teens.
3. Yeah, I am way, way better at picking position players.
Old is 20+, Yng is 19 and under.
We started drafting amateur international guys in 2006.
Here are my actual drafts: viewtopic.php?t=2032