Jake's 2014 Arbitary Spring Training Preview - AL Central
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:10 am
I learned my lesson last year, we're starting early to make sure I actually finish all of these. I know there's like 6 weeks to the season, so if you make any trades between now and Opening Day I arbitrarily do not care and will stand by these predictions. Given that the AL Central got screwed last year you guys are getting the treatment first, so stop bugging me about it Pat! As always, if you posted a lineup I'll use it, if not I'll just guess and it's your own damn fault if I'm wrong. Also this year I'm finishing the preview by calling a shot about where I think a team will finish, either as a WS contender, in the hunt, or where I think they're draft pick will be. Reserve the right to change these projections as I go through the league.
Indians
Strengths
Not sure if you guys remember this, but this whole experiment started because we brought in some weirdo named Kelly to run the Indians and he promptly stuffed his team with DHs (go back and check the record, he had Giambi, Thome, and Frank Thomas along with soon to be DH Troy Glaus, of course I ended up trading for Frank Thomas twice so what do I know). I also remember someone saying beware of discounting Kelly Burke. Anyway, not to toot my own horn but that whole thing didn't end up working out so good, and now Danny has gamely stepped up to clean up the mess. As you might expect, given that he took over a team with no stars and no top prospects, Danny has focused on rebuilding for the future. As far as this season goes, Tyson Ross is someone I'll always have a soft spot for, Junior Lake looks the part, Leonys Martin plays nice defense, umm... that's about all there is to say.
Weaknesses
Prospects are cool and all, but this is about this season, which looks pretty bad. Biggest weaknesses of this team are hitting, defense, and pitching.
Bottom Line
Danny may actually put in a good challenge to Z for Carlos Rodon, and his biggest challenge will be maintaining a full roster to actually play the games.
Royals[/i]
Strengths
Second base. There are 3 second basemen according to Steamer (is the Zips spreadsheet downloadable yet? Haven't found it but also haven't looked...) who are projected a both an above average WOBA and more than a run of defensive value. Jason has 2 of them. Given how weak that position is around the league I find that mindblowing. Top to bottom this is a pretty strong lineup, obviously counting on guys like Reyes and Beltran to stay healthy, but top to bottom this might be a top 5 lineup in the IBC. Sonny Gray looks like a star in the making.
Weaknesses
No way around it, that Iwakuma injury really hurts. Combined with CC and Nova getting relatively mediocre projections, the rotation doesn't really have the horses to be elite if Iwakuma can't come back quickly, those finger injuries can be weird. The bullpen is relatively meh, and these Royals could use a better backstop for the rotation.
Bottom Line
Could this be the year that Jason stops knocking on the door and blasts through it? Assuming health this team should score a lot of runs and be really competitive. All eyes will be watching Iwakuma
Tigers[/i]
Strengths
Pat G. has done a hell of a job rebuilding this team. Top to bottom the lineup is strong, perhaps not with all the pop of the Royals but with no apparent weaknesses and a stronger bench in case someone gets hurt. 3-6 of Goldy, Beltre, Heyward, Desmond is as strong as anyone in the league. The rotation fronted by Cole Hamels and Anibal Sanchez is strong (Pat remember when I was bitching that the Sanchez trade was a total steal and you told me he was just a nice mid-rotation piece?), and there is decent depth as well.
Weaknesses
The bullpen could be the Achilles heel, as the best reliever is looking the Beard, who is a total traitor and not someone you can ever trust in any kind of important situation anymore. Seriously, fuck that guy. Also, incidentally, fuck James Harden for trying to appropriate the "Fear the Beard" moniker, go get your own gimmick. That bothers me almost as much as LaDanian Tomlinson going by LT.
Bottom Line
The Tigers have to be the favorite in this division and have a decent shot at being a World Series contender, which would make them the first team to win two World Series titles with two different GMs (the year after Brett P. became the first GM to win two titles with two different teams). That being said, go check out his trade record, since Pat has returned to the league he may have stolen all of JB's voodoo, and I think there should be an investigation.
Twins[/i]
Strengths
Does this team have anyone else besides Byron Buxton? That seems to be the only guy Andrew ever mentions on his team. The strength of this team's Major League players is still Madison Bumgarner, and I'm still bitter that whoever was running the Astros in 2008 (pretty sure that was still you Ken) chose Andrew's trade package based around Chad Billingsley over mine based around Dan Haren, even though I did end up getting Buster Posey out of the deal. Teheran and Matt Harrison (if he's ever healthy again) make a nice rotation behind Bumgarner, and Kenley Jansen should bring back some kind of awesome trade piece later in the season. Jason Castro is a nice young catcher and Jonathan Singleton should be a nice complement in the heart of the order if he can hold off my man the 300 lb Expansive Lover
Weaknesses
The two best hitters on this team are also possibly the two best hitters on the Astros. You should not be trying to emulate the Astros in your lineup. The Twins are a team in transition, so obviously not much in the rest of the lineup or in the bullpen either.
Bottom Line
I'm going to use this space as a request rather than a comment, Andrew I think the best power rankings any of us have ever done were the ones you did giving each team a Roman emperor a bunch of years ago (which popped back into my head because you gave me Elagabalus, whose temple I stumbled upon on my first visit to Rome two summers ago, and I knew exactly who that was thanks to those power rankings). Since this team won't be a factor this season can your contribution to the league be more classically inspired power rankings? Thank you.
White Sox[/i]
Strengths
Second base. Kinda. Really cool found money to get that projection out of Rosell Herrera, I wonder who Jim would have taken if he hadn't thought he needed Guerrero (second base sucks). Another team in transition, looks like Jim does not want to finish at .500 again this year as he moved guys like Headley, Quentin, Chris Carter, and Corey Hart for prospects turning an above average lineup into a below average one. The bullpen is probably the most solid unit on this roster. I'm not pleased you grabbed Josh Osich under the radar, I didn't even notice and went to sign him when Mulder got hurt, but there he was already on your roster. Jerk.
Weaknesses
Lineup and rotation, which looks to be by design. I and a few other contenders will probably have our eyes on Alfonso Soriano's platoon splits to see if he's going to be worth riding off into the sunset for yet another prospect into Jim's newly revamped system.
Bottom Line
Historically (at least in my perception) Jim has been very good at adding prospect talent via the draft and not had the results he expected at the MLB level by cashing in those prospects, so I'm intrigued by watching him pull the plug and reset now that his division has become more competitive. I was really stunned when he jumped on Jordan Paroubeck, I was sure that guy would comfortably be my 3rd round pick. Point being, this team has a bunch of young guys I like, and I'd love to see them develop in a couple of years for Jim. Won't be this year though.
Projected Standings
1. Detroit Tigers - WS Contender
2. Kansas City Royals - In the hunt
--
3. Chicago White Sox - Top 15 pick
4. Minnesota Twins - Top 10 Pick
5. Cleveland Indians - Top 3 Pick
Indians
Strengths
Not sure if you guys remember this, but this whole experiment started because we brought in some weirdo named Kelly to run the Indians and he promptly stuffed his team with DHs (go back and check the record, he had Giambi, Thome, and Frank Thomas along with soon to be DH Troy Glaus, of course I ended up trading for Frank Thomas twice so what do I know). I also remember someone saying beware of discounting Kelly Burke. Anyway, not to toot my own horn but that whole thing didn't end up working out so good, and now Danny has gamely stepped up to clean up the mess. As you might expect, given that he took over a team with no stars and no top prospects, Danny has focused on rebuilding for the future. As far as this season goes, Tyson Ross is someone I'll always have a soft spot for, Junior Lake looks the part, Leonys Martin plays nice defense, umm... that's about all there is to say.
Weaknesses
Prospects are cool and all, but this is about this season, which looks pretty bad. Biggest weaknesses of this team are hitting, defense, and pitching.
Bottom Line
Danny may actually put in a good challenge to Z for Carlos Rodon, and his biggest challenge will be maintaining a full roster to actually play the games.
Royals[/i]
Strengths
Second base. There are 3 second basemen according to Steamer (is the Zips spreadsheet downloadable yet? Haven't found it but also haven't looked...) who are projected a both an above average WOBA and more than a run of defensive value. Jason has 2 of them. Given how weak that position is around the league I find that mindblowing. Top to bottom this is a pretty strong lineup, obviously counting on guys like Reyes and Beltran to stay healthy, but top to bottom this might be a top 5 lineup in the IBC. Sonny Gray looks like a star in the making.
Weaknesses
No way around it, that Iwakuma injury really hurts. Combined with CC and Nova getting relatively mediocre projections, the rotation doesn't really have the horses to be elite if Iwakuma can't come back quickly, those finger injuries can be weird. The bullpen is relatively meh, and these Royals could use a better backstop for the rotation.
Bottom Line
Could this be the year that Jason stops knocking on the door and blasts through it? Assuming health this team should score a lot of runs and be really competitive. All eyes will be watching Iwakuma
Tigers[/i]
Strengths
Pat G. has done a hell of a job rebuilding this team. Top to bottom the lineup is strong, perhaps not with all the pop of the Royals but with no apparent weaknesses and a stronger bench in case someone gets hurt. 3-6 of Goldy, Beltre, Heyward, Desmond is as strong as anyone in the league. The rotation fronted by Cole Hamels and Anibal Sanchez is strong (Pat remember when I was bitching that the Sanchez trade was a total steal and you told me he was just a nice mid-rotation piece?), and there is decent depth as well.
Weaknesses
The bullpen could be the Achilles heel, as the best reliever is looking the Beard, who is a total traitor and not someone you can ever trust in any kind of important situation anymore. Seriously, fuck that guy. Also, incidentally, fuck James Harden for trying to appropriate the "Fear the Beard" moniker, go get your own gimmick. That bothers me almost as much as LaDanian Tomlinson going by LT.
Bottom Line
The Tigers have to be the favorite in this division and have a decent shot at being a World Series contender, which would make them the first team to win two World Series titles with two different GMs (the year after Brett P. became the first GM to win two titles with two different teams). That being said, go check out his trade record, since Pat has returned to the league he may have stolen all of JB's voodoo, and I think there should be an investigation.
Twins[/i]
Strengths
Does this team have anyone else besides Byron Buxton? That seems to be the only guy Andrew ever mentions on his team. The strength of this team's Major League players is still Madison Bumgarner, and I'm still bitter that whoever was running the Astros in 2008 (pretty sure that was still you Ken) chose Andrew's trade package based around Chad Billingsley over mine based around Dan Haren, even though I did end up getting Buster Posey out of the deal. Teheran and Matt Harrison (if he's ever healthy again) make a nice rotation behind Bumgarner, and Kenley Jansen should bring back some kind of awesome trade piece later in the season. Jason Castro is a nice young catcher and Jonathan Singleton should be a nice complement in the heart of the order if he can hold off my man the 300 lb Expansive Lover
Weaknesses
The two best hitters on this team are also possibly the two best hitters on the Astros. You should not be trying to emulate the Astros in your lineup. The Twins are a team in transition, so obviously not much in the rest of the lineup or in the bullpen either.
Bottom Line
I'm going to use this space as a request rather than a comment, Andrew I think the best power rankings any of us have ever done were the ones you did giving each team a Roman emperor a bunch of years ago (which popped back into my head because you gave me Elagabalus, whose temple I stumbled upon on my first visit to Rome two summers ago, and I knew exactly who that was thanks to those power rankings). Since this team won't be a factor this season can your contribution to the league be more classically inspired power rankings? Thank you.
White Sox[/i]
Strengths
Second base. Kinda. Really cool found money to get that projection out of Rosell Herrera, I wonder who Jim would have taken if he hadn't thought he needed Guerrero (second base sucks). Another team in transition, looks like Jim does not want to finish at .500 again this year as he moved guys like Headley, Quentin, Chris Carter, and Corey Hart for prospects turning an above average lineup into a below average one. The bullpen is probably the most solid unit on this roster. I'm not pleased you grabbed Josh Osich under the radar, I didn't even notice and went to sign him when Mulder got hurt, but there he was already on your roster. Jerk.
Weaknesses
Lineup and rotation, which looks to be by design. I and a few other contenders will probably have our eyes on Alfonso Soriano's platoon splits to see if he's going to be worth riding off into the sunset for yet another prospect into Jim's newly revamped system.
Bottom Line
Historically (at least in my perception) Jim has been very good at adding prospect talent via the draft and not had the results he expected at the MLB level by cashing in those prospects, so I'm intrigued by watching him pull the plug and reset now that his division has become more competitive. I was really stunned when he jumped on Jordan Paroubeck, I was sure that guy would comfortably be my 3rd round pick. Point being, this team has a bunch of young guys I like, and I'd love to see them develop in a couple of years for Jim. Won't be this year though.
Projected Standings
1. Detroit Tigers - WS Contender
2. Kansas City Royals - In the hunt
--
3. Chicago White Sox - Top 15 pick
4. Minnesota Twins - Top 10 Pick
5. Cleveland Indians - Top 3 Pick
