IBC

2014 IBC Miami Marlins (w/ ZiPs projections)


Lineup

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B - .271|.344|.420, 5.3 RC/27, 106 OPS+, 4 Def, 15 HR, 16 SB
2. Wil Myers, RF - .263|.326|.437, 5.3 RC/27, 114 OPS+, 23 HR
3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS - .296|.369|.522, 7.4 RC/27, 126 OPS+, 8 Def, 25 HR
4. Brandon Belt*, 1B - .264|.349|.441, 5.7 RC/27, 126 OPS+
5. Yasiel Puig, LF - .284|.354|.485, 6.3 RC/27, 133 OPS+, 3 Def, 21 HR, 16 SB
6. Aramis Ramirez, 3B - .275|.338|.473, 6.0 RC/27, 116 OPS+, 18 HR
7. Denard Span*, CF - .272|.320|.376, 4.6 RC/27, 91 OPS+, 8 Def, 16 SB
8. Wilson Ramos, C - .267|.320|.440, 5.1 RC/27, 106 OPS+, 3 Def

Bench

OF Carl Crawford* - .266|.308|.412, 4.8 RC/27, 100 OPS+, 3 Def, 15 SB/4 CS
1B Justin Morneau* - .280|.343|.457, 5.9 RC/27, 104 OPS+, 16 HR
OF Marlon Byrd - .276|.325|.441, 5.3 RC/27, 108 OPS+, 2 Def, 16 HR, 33 2B
UT Wilmer Flores - .263|.297|.409, 4.4 RC/27, 97 OPS+, 14 HR
OF Matt Joyce* - .246|.338|.430, 5.2 RC/27, 115 OPS+, 16 HR
C Geovany Soto - .228|.308|.409, 4.4 RC/27, 90 OPS+, 12 HR

Others

UT Jeff Baker - .243|.296|.403, 4.3 RC/27, 85 OPS+
OF Moises Sierra - .245|.296|.396, 4.1 RC/27, 87 OPS+, 15 HR, 9 SB
OF Francisco Peguero - .255|.278|.356, 3.6 RC/27, 71 OPS+, 3 Def, 8 SB/3 CS
C Gerald Laird - .248|.314|.362, 4.0 RC/27, 84 OPS+


Rotation

1. Justin Verlander - 3.07 ERA | 1.14 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 138 ERA+
2. David Price* - 3.09 ERA | 1.11 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 124 ERA+
3. Danny Salazar - 3.71 ERA | 1.28 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 102 ERA+
4. Trevor Cahill - 4.04 ERA | 1.37 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 97 ERA+
5. Mark Buehrle* - 4.32 ERA | 1.30 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 96 ERA+

Bullpen

CL Joaquin Benoit - 2.55 ERA | 1.05 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 137 ERA+
SU Fernando Rodney - 3.04 ERA | 1.22 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 126 ERA+
SU Jeremy Affeldt* - 3.48 ERA | 1.32 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 99 ERA+
MR Grant Balfour - 2.98 ERA | 1.16 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 128 ERA+
MR Jorge De La Rosa* - 4.55 ERA | 1.44 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 98 ERA+
LR Justin De Fratus - 3.92 ERA | 1.35 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 98 ERA+

Others

SP Jarred Cosart - 4.30 ERA | 1.52 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 93 ERA+
SP Eddie Butler - 4.76 ERA | 1.50 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 94 ERA+
SP Eric Surkamp* - 4.76 ERA | 1.48 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 88 ERA+
SP Chad Bettis - 5.19 ERA | 1.48 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 86 ERA+
SP Jason Adam - 6.24 ERA | 1.71 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, 66 ERA+
SP Johnny Hellweg - 6.02 ERA | 1.97 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 67 ERA+

RP Jeff Walters - 3.51 ERA | 1.26 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 103 ERA+
RP Kyle Farnsworth - 3.86 ERA | 1.34 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 93 ERA+
RP Dustin McGowan - 4.29 ERA | 1.54 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 97 ERA+


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Updated with ZiPs for all players except for J. Benoit and G. Balfour, who signed after their teams' ZiPs came out and haven't received a projection yet.


2014 IBC Marlins Roster Analysis


Lineup (B+)

Solid lineup top-to-bottom features only one player who projects for fewer than 5.0 RC/27 or less than 100 OPS+. Tulowitzki, Belt, Puig make up a pretty formidable middle-of-the-order, though it would be nice to have a more dominant LH bat than the still-developing Belt to complement Tulo. Everyone but Span has some HR power, and Tulo, Myers, Belt, Puig and Ramirez are all threats for 25+ HR. Kinsler still offers some speed at the top of the order, Puig can swipe a few in the middle, and Span should steal some bases out of the bottom of the lineup. Myers's disappointing projection was slightly offset by a very optimistic projection for Puig, but it will be Belt's performance as the only LH power presence in the middle of the order that will drive the fortunes of this lineup.

Bench (A-)

My bench runs deep, so deep put her ass to sleep. Probably the deepest bench I've had yet, with at least 4 guys who could be starting somewhere in Crawford, Morneau, Byrd and Joyce. Morneau and Joyce provide LH power and Byrd, Flores and Soto offer pop from the RH side. Crawford provides speed, LF defense, and another LH hitting option. The only thing this bench is missing is a utility player with more defensive versatility than Flores, who might be limited to 2B/3B with average range at best.

Defense (B+)

Solid up the middle with standouts at C, SS, 2B and CF. Defensive range should be "Av" or better everywhere except maybe 3B, where a "Fr" is possible for Aramis. Puig and Myers have strong arms at the corner OF spots. A versatile utility player with above-average range at 3B on the bench would improve team defense late in games.

Rotation (A-)

Justin Verlander and David Price might be the best 1-2 punch in the IBC. Danny Salazar's quality ZiPs projection may have saved this staff, and he slots in as a good option at #3. As in past seasons, Cahill's GB tendencies should make him significantly outperform his projection at #4. Buehrle's contribution depends less on his projection and more on what will no doubt be another "Vg" starter durability rating. He'll make a solid #5 when he posts another season of 200+ IP and an ERA around 4.00. Jorge De La Rosa's unexpectedly low projection hurts what otherwise would've been a very deep pool of capable starters. Ideally, this staff could use a right-handed upgrade at #3 (sliding Salazar to #4), but still has good enough arms 1-5 to power a contending team. De La Rosa, Jarred Cosart, Eddie Butler and Eric Surkamp provide decent SP depth in case of injury.

Bullpen (B)

Grade should probably be "incomplete" here because Benoit and Balfour don't have ZiPs yet, but both performed well enough last year that they can reasonably be expected to garner above-average back-of-the-bullpen-caliber projections. Deep in quality RH relief options (Benoit, Rodney, Balfour, De Fratus, Farnsworth, Walters, McGowan) but a little short on LH arms (Affeldt, De La Rosa, Surkamp), this pen could really use a shutdown LH setup option. Either Benoit or Rodney should make for a capable closer, though, given their respective ages, it wouldn't hurt to upgrade to someone younger for that role.

Overall (A-)

I'm happy with how this roster has turned out. Tulo and Verlander still anchor the lineup and rotation, but Price and Belt are newcomers as key contributors to the Marlins. There don't seem to be any major holes at this point, but the team would benefit from upgrades at 3B, CF, C, UT, #3 SP and LH RP. The lineup has speed, power and solid defense across the board, with a deep enough bench to survive injuries at most positions. The pitching staff is a nice mix of hard-throwing strikeout guys and groundballers who pitch to contact and keep things moving. It could use some minor tweaks here and there to bring my grade up to a flat A, but for the most part this roster is well-rounded and ready-made to contend in 2014.

Updated w/ ZiPs for Benoit and Balfour