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Re: Trades

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Marlins traded Esteury Ruiz, Mason 21-Montgomery, Lenyn Sosa to Padres for Josh Sborz, Josh Winder

Josh Winder, while injury prone, looks every bit a strong mid-rotation starter. The SIM was lukewarm on him coming off last year...but certainly usable...as long as he keeps progressing as he has this season, he'll be a real help to Nils this year and the next many. Sborz is a solid reliever who had a good year last year, got a good SIM, and then got blasted right out of the gate at the MLB level. He's turned around and been lights out at AAA...and he's back up at the MLB level.

But, once again, I just really like the package I'm getting back. Not necessarily for upside, but for what I believe can be pretty high floors. Montgomery already had an above average fastball and changeup, but the development of a true secondary pitch has taken him from intriguing prospect to 'what the f**k is going on here?'. Pushed to HA, he's had a 1.84 era, solid whip, and almost 16 k's/9. And the secondaries pretty much back up the primaries. He's interesting. Similar story with Lenyn Sosa. Long thought to be simply a potential plus hitter, Sosa has not only hit .331, but he's had 26 ebh's, including 14 hr's, that have opened people's eyes. So much so he got an MLB call-up and is now in AAA. And similar with Ruiz. An intriguing prospect, he has absolutely crushed AA & AAA pitching this year...to the point it's a bit humorous. Almost identical at both levels, he's at .344/.471/.592 with 37 ebh's and already a career high 13 homers. He's also stolen 53 bases. It'll be interesting if he can really be an MLB level CF, but if the power is real, LF could be a real possibility, too. If just one of these breakouts is real, I'll feel good about the deal.
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Re: Trades

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Padres traded Masyn 20-Winn to Astros for Ken Waldichuk

Pretty old school challenge trade. Winn has gone from solid prospect to Top 100 prospect based off of solid defense, great arm, and excellent offense in 2022. He's a super exciting player with great upside...just at a position I'm full on with.

Waldichuk was a pop-up prospect last year with 7 insane starts at HA...then lost some steam at AA. This year he destroyed AA and has been excellent at AAA. It's sent him flying up prospect charts and on to most top 100 lists (as high as #37 on FanGraphs). He's also a Yankee. He should see his MLB debut before the end of the season, and has changed his ultimate ceiling from back-end to a 2/3 starter.
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Padres traded Padres Draft Pick 1, Padres Draft Pick 4 to Mariners for Kristian 0-Robinson, Josiah Gray, Mariners Draft Pick 5

I've got the 5th worst record and 2nd worst run differential. I'd be shocked if this wasn't a top 3 pick by the end of the year. I like guys like Jones, Holliday, etc. a lot...but it's a lot of cf's & mif's towards the top of this draft. Jag will most likely find himself with a top 30 prospect...if not top 10-15.

I'm looking for high ceiling pitchers, not cf's and mif's. Gray was a super helium prospect when he was called up and then traded. FanGraphs had him as a top 20 prospect when he lost eligibility. He's absolutely held his own as an MLB starter, and I believe there is a #2 ceiling with a #3 floor on him. To me, that puts him solidly above the arms in this draft class. Robinson was the icing. As someone who was suffered from anxiety, I'm hugely in Robinson's corner in the hopes he can find a career in baseball after his mental health issues and legal struggles. He was leaping up prospect charts as an 18 year old crushing full season ball when the legal issues hit. He suffered serious mental health issues (which can make sense for an 18 year old in a new place with a ton of responsibility), and, because he's from the Bahamas, his ability to play baseball is still in serious jeopardy. His avenues remain becoming a legal citizen when his felony is reduced to a misdemeanor...but that path is narrow. The better path is through marrying his wife (they have a child). He's 21, he's been in Arizona, and he's been playing. Reports say he's still a dude. He's just 3 years now without a baseball game. While only 21, that can tremendously stunt development. He's a nice pickup as a lottery ticket, but it allows me to root for him on my roster. Jag is well in his corner too (has an awesome picture with him)...so he'll have first shot when and if he makes it back.
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Re: Trades

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Padres traded Forrest Whitley, Mariners Draft Pick 5 to Pirates for Pirates Draft Pick 2, Pirates Draft Pick 4

Forrest Whitley has started pitching again. A lot of his stuff is still there, too. But then he got injured again, too. Feels like starting is a far off story for him, but the Astros remain dedicated to having him do it. There's no doubt the 'Top Pitching Prospect' Whitley is in there, but only if he can ever stay on the mound consistently enough to get there.

With starting pitching depth I'm confident in, now...it was time to get back some draft equity. I do like this draft, it's just my needs and the players on the top were a bit misaligned. Getting a 2nd round pick and a 15-pick bump in the 4th seems like good value for Whitley, and put me back where I want to be in this draft.
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Re: Trades

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Padres traded Niko 21-Kavadas, Padres Draft Pick 3 to Braves for Braves Draft Pick 2

I mean, Kavadas is fucking up the minor leagues. He's old for the levels, but still. Good grief.

But that means I get to cash in the #127 pick to move up a full, early round in a draft I do like at that level. Fair play all the way around.
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Guardians traded Carter Kieboom, Jarlin 21-Susana, Robert 21-Gasser to Padres for Edward Cabrera, Travis Swaggerty, Pirates Draft Pick 2

Cabrera is an almost certain mid-rotation starter. He's very solid and worth the trade I made for him last year. The 2nd falls in the 60 range. Swaggerty is a surefire MLB 4th/5th of for just his glove, with some upside you can see in his obp.

This came down to a quick evaluation for me. I like who Gasser is more than the players I see in that 60 range. I really like Swaggerty, but I don't need to be collecting backup of's at this moment. It came down to my belief in what Kieboom and Susana can be versus Cabrera. Kieboom is a lost cause this year, but there's still a top 25 prospect profile there. I'll take the bet. Then there's Susana. He's the talk of the complex league and anyone evaluating him sees the potential for a top of the rotation starter. But he's also 18 and in the complex league...and pretty maxed out physically. Here's hoping the monstrous potential plays.
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Re: Trades

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Padres traded Cal Mitchell, Josiah Gray, Max 21-Muncy, Lenyn Sosa, Pirates Draft Pick 4 to WhiteSox for Andy Pages, Yerry De Los Santos, WhiteSox Draft Pick 3

Think I'm taking a bit of a beating here. I'm clearly high on Gray. I believe there's a #2 starter in there. Muncy has very real pop and is probably a ss. He's also just 19 and has held his own, plus a little more, in the minors. Mitchell has had a tremendous AAA season and is getting real ab's with the Pirates, while Sosa has had a massive breakout season and is also getting MLB ab's. That's a lot of floor with some very real ceiling left.

But, ultimately, I feel really good if I moved a top 5 pick for Pages & Robinson. Pages is a beast. After a massive 2021, Pages has more than held his own as a 21 year old in AA. He has massive power, real carrying tools, and profiles strongly in right. Part of the strategy of getting Gray was trying to find a power hitting OF...and Pages is near the tops of those lists for prospects. If he can cut into the k's at all, there's a beast there. De Los Santos was an important get in this deal for me, too. Tried out as an SP as a 17 year old in 2015, he had an injury turn him into a reliever to close down the 2017 season. Since then, he's been nothing short of incredible...including in his MLB debut in 2022. He's absolutely one of the best young relief arms in the game. Ultimately I have some awful decisions to make when it comes to cuts for the upcoming draft...this solved a couple problems while added to areas of importance for me.
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Re: Trades

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Brewers traded Jovani Moran, Brewers Draft Pick 2 to Padres for Cal Raleigh, WhiteSox Draft Pick 3

I've got a specific profile I look for in hitters...that they get on base. Raleigh does not do that. I have other catchers who do. But what Raleigh doesn't do there, he picks up elsewhere. He's a plus defensive catcher with tremendous power. By FanGraphs he's a 2.3 war catcher in half a season, and by Baseball Reference he's 2.4. That's a hell of a player.

For that, I get two really nice pieces. I move up to the middle of the 2nd round to an area that I'm excited about. I also get someone who I think is one of the better young relievers in the game. Moran has a 13.4 k/9 in his MiLB career and 11.8 in his MLB innings. His hit suppression has also been outstanding. He just still walks too many people. He's sat at 4.9 bb/9 for his whole professional career. Above that...he's been bad. At or below that...he's been excellent. When he was at 3.3 bb/9 over 40 AA ip's in 2021? He was otherworldly. He adds to a young exciting pen I'm building...something that was a backbone of my better teams.
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Re: Trades

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Pirates traded Pirates Draft Pick 1 to Padres for Jairo Pomares, Brewers Draft Pick 2

Jairo Pomares is REALLY good. He started to get near/on top 100's last year and had an excellent season at HA as a 21 year old for most of the year and the power continued to play up. He's going to be a player.

I get to move up 20ish picks at a really valuable part of the draft, for a player who would have a hard time cracking my roster if my best OF prospects continue to develop. Works for both I think.
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Padres traded Matt 21-McLain to Reds for Michael Massey

Going into this year...and for most of this year...McLain was almost assuredly a top 100 prospect. There were lots of Bregman comps shaking out. And he was fine in his first full pro season. An .803 ops and 34 extra base hits is definitely solid playing across 2b/ss as a 23 year old. Challenges include a .229 batting average and looks to move him off SS as the season went along. Still, I think even with a slight uptick in average at AAA next year, he'll rocket up prospect lists again.

Massey is almost assuredly a worse prospect, but I really like his profile. After a decent start in 2019, he came off the pandemic almost a completely different player. As he's climbed the ladder, his contact ability has improved, his power has improved, and he won the MiLB Gold Glove at 2b last year. He's also got his first taste of MLB ball this year and has played without getting the bat knocked out of his hand (116 ops+ to date). I think his floor is as a solid starting 2b in MLB...and the ceiling is huge if the power shows up at the MLB level like it did in MiLB.
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Re: Trades

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Nationals traded Marlins Draft Pick 2, Nationals Draft Pick 2 to Padres for Logan 20-Allen

Logan Allen moved onto top 100 lists with a strong performance at aa. He's been stonewalled a bit at aaa, but there's a lot of belief that as long as he can get his command under control, there's a strong #3-#4 starter in there.

I'll pick up two picks between 40-60 in the draft, which will help tremendously with my roster numbers.
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Re: Trades

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Pirates traded Miguel Rojas, Spencer 21-Schwellenbach to Padres for Yency Almonte, Penn Murfee, Austin 20-Hendrick, Padres Draft Pick 5

Almonte and Murfee are two relievers having outstanding seasons in real life. Both should be real assets next year. Hendrick and the 5th are draft spots that help for now, and can be useful. I'm not out on Hendrick fully yet, until he either only strikes out or homers. He's still doing both.

Rojas gets me a clubhouse veteran who can help shepherd my kids into the future. Schwellenbach is the get. He had some of the best raw stuff in the entirety of the '21 draft. The problem is that he only threw 30 ip's in his college career and has not thrown an ip of pro ball because of TJ. Reports on his development are solid and the Braves are a good system. He's a massive lottery ticket, but one with an actual chance of winning. And the upside is huge.
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Re: Trades

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Padres traded Josh Jung, Garrett Mitchell to Braves for Taj 0-Bradley, Braves Draft Pick 1

Very difficult trade to pull the trigger on. I think Jung will absolutely be a beast offensively. He's been terrific at every level. He's a big bat. Staying on the field has been an issue and his future position (1b) could depress some value. Mitchell has quietly had a wonderful season rising all the way up to the MLB level. There are some k issues and some power concerns, but he is absolutely a ballplayer.

Taj Bradley was clearly the get. He's consistently ranked as a better prospect than Jung and has been utterly dominant until getting stood up a little at AAA...but he's still only 21. He combines bat missing stuff with excellent command and athleticism. The back part of his arsenal lags behind his top 2 pitches, but they're good enough and developing. The pick should be somewhere in the #4-#9 range. This should get me a pick in and around the top 100 with players I really do like. Definitely have a couple targets I'd be looking for in there.
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Re: Trades

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Marlins traded Eguy Rosario, Marlins Draft Pick 4 to Padres for Ron Marinaccio

Marinaccio is an excellent reliever. Good sim, great year, he'll be great next year.

I pick up a 4th and Rosario. Rosario is a well thought of prospect who had an outstanding season at aaa and just got the mlb call. I'm game.
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Re: Trades

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Marlins traded Eguy Rosario, Marlins Draft Pick 4 to Padres for Ron Marinaccio

Marinaccio was a reliever who got a decent sim this year and has been outstanding for the Yanks at the MLB level. Should be a very good sim reliever for next year.

The 4th rounder continues to provide assets, but the get was clearly Rosario. He is not very tall, but he swings a big bat. He makes hard contact, which he has turned into more power this year, hitting 21 homers among 56 ebh's. He's made his way to MLB, where his versatility and glove will at least make him a solid bench bat...with a lot of upside for more if the bat continues to play.
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Padres traded Chase 21-Petty, Marlins Draft Pick 2 to Reds for Seth 19-Johnson, Reds Draft Pick 2

Fun deal. Given I've got some draft pick flexibility and a glut of mid-rotation upside starters, Petty was a pitcher I really like, but was movable if the right deal came along. Still just 19, Petty was very effective in A ball and already made HA...and he's a Reds.

Johnson is a guy that Ken and I have talked about on and off. He just recently had TJ, but has such a massive arm, he was the guy the Orioles STILL targeted when they moved Mancini. He's a stat AND scouts dream, with explosive stuff, high spin rates, and excellent results for someone newer to full-time pitching. He'll miss next season, and he may just be a reliever at this point, but he's a super fun lottery ticket. Jumping up about 5-8 spots in the 2nd helped ease the pain of the TJ for me.
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Rockies traded Deyvison 0-De Los Santos to Padres for Bryce Elder, Pirates Draft Pick 1, Reds Draft Pick 2

Taking inventory of my team, I've been shopping a version of this package around the league for a corner power bat. I've been willing to overpay...and I certainly did here. The 1st and 2nd will be good picks in a very solid draft. Elder looks every bit a sturdy #4 MLB starter...with some upside due to his stuff and he pitches in the Braves system. And he's also already capably pitching in the MLB.

I've asked Nate about de los Santos many times. And many times I've been rebuffed. I think he's one of the best under-the-radar hitting prospects in the game. Signed in 2019, he made a lot of noise on the complex fields during the pandemic, before trashing rookie ball and holding his own as an 18-year old in A ball in 2021. 2022 was more of the same, as he punished A and A+ pitching as a 19-year old, before a cup of coffee in AA to end the year. He has tremendous power and decent control of the zone, just comes with some very real swing-and-miss. When he's at a more age appropriate level, his K/rate is fine (24% at A vs. 33% at A+)...and, even then, he was still good at A+. I'm so excited to see his continued development...but I definitely overpaid for him.
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Padres traded Marco 20-Raya, Braves Draft Pick 1 to Twins for Louie 0-Varland, Gavin 20-Stone, Twins Draft Pick 1

Raya has massive potential and made it, mostly, through a full season without injury or pandemic. He has the stuff to be a starter, but remaining injury-free and throwing past 3 ip's will continue to be massive points of development for him to be a starter. The #1 pick was really tough to move. I love the players in that space. The biggest issue is that, as I look at my roster, another legit starter was my biggest need...not those hitters.

The Twins pick will get me in a solid range for a good player in a pretty deep draft. Varland looks more and more like a #3-4 starter after another tremendous season for the Twins, leading to holding his own at the MLB level across two starts. But the get for me was clearly Stone. I got to see him pitch early this year in person, and was like, 'Who the fuck is this?' After he started proving this breakout was pretty legit, I asked Jason about him at least a dozen times...but I just couldn't put together a deal that got there...and his value just kept increasing. I think he's at least a high-level #3 with legit TORP potential. He's on the cusp of the pros and carried a sub-2 era at A+, AA, and AAA. He'll slot in around Bradley, Pepiot, and Waldichuk, putting the rest of the staff into more realistic positions for their abilities. Got a guy I really wanted and filled a massive need...even if I might have overpaid.
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Re: Trades

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Phillies traded Cionel Perez, Trevor Stephan, Tyler Gentry to Padres for Donny Sands, Alexander 0-Ramirez, Robert 21-Gasser

Alex Ramirez is the most high profile player in this deal. After being one to watch for many after last year, he flew out of the gates and on to every top 100 list early in the season. He struggled right before he was promoted to HA, but rebounded for a solid finish for a 19-year old in HA. Gasser was a '21 who was a high profile part of the Hader trade. He was a 2nd rounder with decent stuff, k's a decent amount, but is still a little too hittable. He'll be at least back-end, but a chance for higher if he can figure out his command a little better. Sands was a journeyman minor league with a solid glove, but hit the crap out of the ball this year and found his way to an MLB debut.

In the deal I pick up two young, high-profile relievers. Perez was used for more short bursts and situational opportunities and responded with an unbelievable 1.40 era with secondary stats that pretty much agreed. Stephan was even better as one of the breakout relieving stars of MLB this year. Phenomenal primary and secondary stats, still young, and in an organization that does well with relievers, he will be the backstop of my pen for as long as he's on the roster. We've been talking this deal beyond this week a bit, but was working with the Angels for sales training this week and went to lunch on Wednesday with my contact and one of his friends in baseball ops. I asked him who were prospects not enough people were talking about, and one on the very short list was 'Tyler Gentry' (be hesitant if you get a DM from me this week on a mid-level prospect!). He mixes premier athleticism with a grinder mentality. He may not end up a star, but he does everything well and gets better every season.
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Re: Trades

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Marlins traded Ron Marinaccio, Emmet 21-Sheehan, Yankees Draft Pick 3 to Padres for Trevor Stephan

Stephan is clearly on his way to becoming one of the absolute elite relievers in baseball. After a decent debut in 2021, Stephan was lights out in 2022 with secondary stats that matched his incredible stuff. He should continue his ascent.

Marinaccio looks to be about 90% of Stephan...and he's a Yankee. The Yanks really relied on him for a big part of the season, and his '21 & '22 minor league numbers were video game like. If he can shave his BB/9 total to match his MiLB numbers, we might be cooking with dynamite. Sheehan barely got any run after being drafted in '21, but really opened some eyes in with tremendous results in A+ and was one of the breakout stars of the Arizona Fall League. He's also a '21, giving me even more roster flexibility going into next year. The 3rd round pick offers me similar in a decently deep draft.
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Padres traded Sam Huff, Simeon 0-Woods Richardson, Nationals Draft Pick 2 to Twins for Ryan Mountcastle, Twins Draft Pick 4

Woods Richardson was a little disappointing in 2019, didn't pitch in 2020, and was outright bad in 2021...not a great start for a career for a high thought of prospect. But he was fantastic in 2022, all the way up to his first MLB start. While he wasn't a part of my top 5 pitchers, I'm very high on him. Huff keeps tearing up aaa and standing behind the plate, but needs to start taking advantage of his MLB opportunities. I'm loaded up on 2nd rounders so I moved the last of them.

I'm a Mountcastle fan. I didn't love moving him last year, so I'm thrilled to get him back. I believe he'll be a middle of the order bat. The lineup keeps getting better around him and he keeps showing real pop. If he shaves his k's to his MiLB level and finds his way to a few more walks, the power will really play. Big if's, but he certainly has not been bad in his first 3 runs at the MLB...and he's still only 25.
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Padres traded Hunter 21-Goodman to Royals for Miguel Castro, Royals Draft Pick 2

Goodman absolutely mashed both levels of a ball (albeit age appropriate)...but was exposed a little in aa. He's probably not a c long-term, but there's a massive bat in there if he can make consistent contact against higher level arms.

Goodman was a late draft pick last year, so getting the #2 for him was nice, alongside a solid young rp arm in Castro. Not a massive deal...but one that accomplishes a lot for both of us.
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Marlins traded Oswald Peraza, Edgar 20-Quero to Padres for Carter Kieboom, Endy 0-Rodriguez, Marlins Draft Pick 4

I targeted Endy and man he took a jump this year. He may end up being upwards of a top 30 prospect on some lists. He just wore the ball out across all levels. Kieboom is a lottery ticket and the 4th was surplus for me after yesterday’s trade.

As a massive Yankee fan, locking up Peraza and Volpe was very fun. Peraza was tremendous down the stretch in aaa before performing great in his first full Yankee run. He’s got an outside shot at the starting SS spot this year. Quero is a ways off, but he’s a plus defensive catcher who’s been an above average hitter at every level. Just a solid prospect all around.
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RedSox traded Spencer Steer to Padres for Miles Mastrobuoni, Mason 21-Montgomery, Twins Draft Pick 1

Matrobuoni is a solid player whose SIM is 95% of Steer’s. Montgomery was a massive breakout pitching prospect and the first will provide good value in this draft.

But I love Steer. Guy can hit, hit for power, and has decreased his K rate as he’s progressed while playing 2b, 3b, ss, and some of. The SIM likes him and he’ll provide excellent cover until de Los Santos develops.
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Re: Trades

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Padres traded Ron Marinaccio to Yankees for Coby 20-Mayo

Tough to trade a Yankee...especially one with a great SIM and a nasty K rate. Marinaccio broke out last year and the SIM loves him. He'll help at the back of JB's bullpen.

I've asked him about Mayo for a while and Marinaccio's SIM put it over the top. Mayo is a huge dude who crushes the ball...just hit it pretty inconsistently. He's held his own as a younger player in higher levels and there are a lot of pre-breakout Gunnar Henderson comparisons. If it clicks, he's an MVP candidate...if he doesn't, he'll be a AAAA player. Like the risk for a solid reliever.
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