All The Guardians Trades

[Guardians]

320. Justin Foscue, Blaze Jordan, Royals Draft Pick 4 to Philadelphia for Luis Angel Acuna, Phillies Draft Pick 3, Phillies Draft Pick 4

Nick was interested in a handful of my young players and I interested in more than a handful of his and our talks just kind of stalled over a several months period until we got a little more serious about it. Foscue just looks like a natural hitter who keeps hitting at every level, limiting strikeouts and slugging the ball. The problem is he can't field. He's probably either a 1B or a DH long-term, but if he can manage a decent 1B rating, he's going to be a valuable hitter. Jordan made a leap this year, He annihilated A+ this year, slashing .324/.385/.533, while only striking out 14.6 percent of the time. He's a slugger who doesn't strike out like crazy and that's a valuable skill. He's now 20 in AA, still not striking out, but needs to get his average up in a very small sample size. Like Foscue, I think Jordan ends up limited to 1B. He may play 3B a while longer, but eventually moves over. I think at least one of the two ends up being an impact bat for Nick and maybe both.

I'm excited about the return. I get back Acuna, whom I had before he broke out and whom I dealt in what ended up being a really bad deal with Milwaukee two years ago. I love what he's been doing in AA with 42 steals and while he's still a small guy (5'8 181), he's put up 7 home runs, 25 doubles, and 2 triples. So, he's showing power and he's only striking out 18.9 percent of the time. I would like to see slightly fewer strikeouts and slightly more walks, but he's a dynamic player whom the Mets just got for Scherzer, so we'll see how he does. I also picked up what is currently pick #63 and #93 up from probably 15 spots higher in the fourth round. I think Nick gets some really nice young hitters and I pick up the best current prospect and some draft help.

[Guardians]

321. Hector Rodriguez, Royals Draft Pick 2, Cory Lewis to Kansas City for Charlie Morton, Matt Gage

Pitching injuries have been a theme in 2023 in Cleveland, and so this deal is an attempt to add much-needed depth to a team that is fine in the standings but looking at the playoffs. After deGrom went down, things were fine and then Bieber went down and all of a sudden 3 aces dropped to 1 and Ken Waldichuk and Matthew Liberatore became permanent rotation pieces. And both have been fine in the sim, but beyond them it gets murky quickly. With Larry falling back in the standings and looking to move some pieces, we started talking about Morton. I dealt Morton to him earlier this year and was happy to try to get him back. Morton is 39, but there's a team option for next year that you have to think will get picked up since he's posted a 2-win season so far. His Ks are slightly down and walks are slightly up, but he has limited home runs and remains a good No. 3 starter. He's going to pick up innings for me throughout the rest of the regular season and possibly in the playoffs as a #4 starter. Gage is a sim-only pickup here, but since I've been running all season with one lefty in the pen, he'll be a helpful bullpen arm.

In return, I give up Rodriguez, who has had a monster 2023 as a 19-year-old in A ball. He shot out of nowhere in the middle of the season and started hitting bombs and keeping his average around .300. I think he'll be in discussions for back end top 100 this offseason. The 2nd round pick is probably in the mid 40s, which provides nice value. Lewis is a Twins pitching prospect for whom I saw some nice writeups a few months ago. He may be a FV 45 type SP at the moment, which is good value for a third piece in a deal like this.

[Guardians]

322. Rafael Devers, Charlie Morton, Josh Rojas to New York (AL) for Matt Olson, Justin Turner

JB and I hung out a few weeks ago and when I asked about Olson he responded in true JB fashion -- by giving a non-serious half answer that led to nothing. I forgot about Olson. At 9:54 deadline night, I get a message out of the blue from JB, "Bro we dealing or what?" Within 20 minutes, we had settled on this deal and it was done. This was after I had been working on a separate deal for a 1B that would have cost me Varsho and I had already been working on a deal for a backup RF in case I ended up dealing Tucker for an unnamed star. I had a lot of things going on at once.

I probably wouldn't have considered a Devers/Olson deal at the beginning of the season. However, a lot has changed since April. For one, Riley has asserted himself as probably the best 3B in the game this year. He's been unconscious with the bat and is now up to 32 home runs on the year. And since I've had two stud 3B all year, I had been shopping one without much success. I came close to picking up to solid outfielder in a deal after a few weeks of talking, but that fell through. I made no secret that one of Riley or Devers was on the market, but few came calling. When Olson became an actual option, I had to see what it would take.

Like Riley, his real-life teammate has been having a year. Olson has a career-high 43 home runs with 112 RBI and 103 runs and he still has a month to go. He has established himself as one of the best left-handed power hitters in the game and will be a fixture for many more years. There's no doubt he's been struggling for the IBC Yankees. .211/.297/.398 is a stupid slash line for a player of his caliber. I have gotten very little production out of 1B this year, except when I use Riley there, so I'm banking on that problem being fixed.

Devers, on the other hand, has been amazing: .290/.348/.564. So, it's possible that this hurts in 2023, but it shouldn't. Even with a down year for Devers, he's got more home runs than he had last year in 60 fewer at bats and he is maintaining his strikeout and walk rates. His BABIP is down and so is his average and OBP. I think what has hurt him is he hasn't had any real protection in the lineup. With Martinez gone, Casas is behind him and while he's very good, he's more inconsistent and he's also a lefty. Protection would help his numbers but he's still 26 and a premier slugger.

JB wanted pitching and I wanted Justin Turner back, so Morton became the obvious choice as another old player to include. Both have been very good for being 38/39 and both look poised for useful projections next year. Turner has become (not shockingly) a fan favorite in Boston, playing 3 positions and slugging 22 home runs while maintaining solid walk and strikeout rates. Morton is top 20 in the league in strikeouts and he's got another year next year in Atlanta. He will remain a #3 starting pitcher in the IBC if healthy. The final piece was Rojas, whom I haven't really used and just snagged off waivers earlier this year. He's not great, but he's fine and with JB needing to move LeMahieu to 1B to accommodate losing Olson, that means he needed to cobble together a 2B situation. I didn't mind adding him to get it done.

[Guardians]

323. Won-Bin Cho, Cole Phillips, Phillies Draft Pick 3 to Atlanta for Esteury Ruiz, Brock Burke, Braves Draft Pick 4

This was a weird trade because while I was working on a deal for an unnamed star that would have cost me Kyle Tucker, I was looking for potential RF replacements. Ruiz's arm does not belong in RF, but his VG range and low error rate was intriguing, so I asked Brett what he'd be looking for. We started discussing several prospects and the deal started around Cho and Phillips for Ruiz and a different reliever I didn't want.

Once JB entered the picture and I dealt Morton to him, I really needed SP depth. With all my SP injuries this year, I couldn't afford to run low on potential starting pitchers, so I asked for Burke, who has a sneaky FR SP rating and a usable projection. I'm going to slot him in as a #5 starter and hope he can get me 5 decent innings each turn. Next year, I expect him to be a really nice lefty out of the pen for me.

Cho, I love. I've had many offers this year for him and I think it's going to take a year more, but he will start moving up the prospect charts. He's been 19 all year in A ball, maintaining strong walk and strikeout rates, while stealing 28 bases and showing some power. He's praised for his defense, so if he can develop some more power over the next couple years, he's going to be one to watch. Phillips was a high school flamethrower drafted in the 2nd round in 2022 and hasn't pitched this year. The picks boost Degen almost a round, which will help him nab another decent prospect.

[Guardians]

324. Guardians traded Marcus Stroman, Dylan Carlson, Derniche Valdez to Tampa Bay for David Robertson, Adolis Garcia, David Hamilton

This started with Garcia, which is funny because I dealt Matt Garcia for not a lot only a little more than a year ago. I saw him as a power/speed/D only outfielder. After that trade, and into this year, Garcia has upped his average/OBP and reduced his strikeouts while maintaining very strong defense. Like the Ruiz deal, this was made with the intent of providing a backup plan should I need to deal Tucker. Ultimately, once my Varsho deal fell through, I really didn't need Garcia, but I was pretty deep into talks and I wanted to pick up another right-handed power hitter since outside of Riley, I don't really have a big right-handed bat other than Albies (switch hitter).

The basis of this deal started with Carlson and Stroman and Garcia, plus some combo of other players. For Matt to move one of his better hitters, he needed some solid pieces back. Stroman, like Garica, is in his 30s, but he had a very strong start to the season before two injuries derailed it. There's a chance he comes back this year, but it's slim. That doesn't really matter to Tampa Bay, but it did matter to me. Without him this year, he has significantly less value. He'll be a 2.5-3.5 win projection next year, but my focus is on this year. For Matt, after Cortes had a down year and he's had some injuries, Stroman represents a really nice #3 starter for his rotation. Carlson, however, has been a monster disappointment in St. Louis. But, so has the entire team. I think with a defined role and consistent playing time, Carlson, who is 6-7 years younger than Garcia, can be a good player. He's a switch hitter with good D. He just needs time to play and learn. Being injured right now was also a motivator for me to move him.

I really like Hamilton this year. He's had a very strong AAA season with top-notch speed (51 steals) and surprising power (15 HR) and only being 25 years old, I could see him filling a super utility role for Boston and earning 450 at bats. With a giant hole at second base, I could see him picking up significant time there next year. He's got great sim defense as is, so I thought he was a nice piece. Robertson, I figured, was a guy Matt wanted to move given his age and while he's been bad since the deadline deal, he's had a nice overall season. I think he'll be a solid projection next year if he pitches and he's depth for me this year. Valdez was a top international signee last year and has nice pop and a long way to go.

[Guardians]

325. Julio Urias to Houston for Samuel Zavala

It's really difficult having a scumbag on your fake baseball team. After Bauer, I never wanted him. I couldn't even get myself to pick up Clevinger when he was available. I did hang onto Roberto Osuna for a while because the details on what he was accused of were light and then he was acquitted. But at any rate, I think Urias has an 80 game suspension in front of him and then the likelihood of never signing in MLB again. He's very talented, but so is Osuna and so was Bauer. So, I took the first offer I got.

Zavala is a back end top 100 talent, a 19-year-old outfielder in the Padres system and now their top outfield prospect. The fact that he started the year at 18 and just turned 19 a month ago and is already in A+ tells me a lot about his skillset. In A ball as an 18-year-old, he slashed .267/.420/.451 with 14 HR 70 RBI 83 runs and 20 steals. If his walk rate stays in the high teens and his strikeout rate can stay in the mid 20s, I feel good about his future.

[Guardians]

326. Guardians Draft Pick 5 to San Diego for Tsung-Che Cheng

I really don't care about fifth round picks, so I'm happy to deal them when I can. I get the value of adding picks and shedding players to get something for them, so I see what Z is doing. But I think Cheng has a really nice combo of power and speed with enough athleticism to stay up the middle. So far this year as a 21-year-old, he hit 13 home runs and stole 25 bases over A+ and AA. He doesn't strike out much (roughly 18%) and carries about a 10% walk rate. As a major leaguer, his worst case scenario may be a utility guy. Best case is I think he could end up starting, especially in Pittsburgh's system. That's good value for pick #150 in the draft.

[Padres]

That's good value for pick #150 in the draft.

He said extremely optimistically ...

[Guardians]

That's good value for pick #150 in the draft.

He said extremely optimistically ...

[Guardians]

327. Eugenio Suarez and Joey Meneses to Toronto for Trevor Rogers and Kyle Nelson

Dave and I love to toss offers back and forth that neither of us will do. But it seemed that once he made his huge move to acquire Gausman, our discussions picked up a bit. With Gausman leading his rotation, everyone moved down a peg and Rogers, whom I had asked about previously, became more available.

He was interested in Suarez (among other players) and I was interested in picking up some SP depth. If Suarez were to log serious innings in 2024, that means things have gone pretty wrong for Cleveland, so I was willing to move him. He's put up 7 wins the last two years and just got moved to Arizona from Seattle, which I think will be a good move from an offensive perspective. Metrics say his defense was great in 2023, so he may get a bump up from his fair rating, which would be helpful at 3B. And he's good for 25-30 HR, albeit with a lot of Ks. Meneses has an average projection, but could be a 1B/corner OF option with decent power and average/OBP. He was going to be sitting on the bench for me (where I'm deep), so I didn't have issue dealing him either. Both were on my block.

Rogers is a total gamble. He had an elite season in 2021 and then has battled injuries the last two years. Last year, he only made 4 starts. He just turned 26, so I may have an opportunity to buy low here if there's still some upside left in the tank. At his best, he's a top of the rotation pitcher. At his worst, he's spending months on the IL. I'm hoping to hit somewhere in between -- a 2-win pitcher with a 4.00 ERA and 150 innings.

Nelson was a nice toss-in. He spent 2023 as a 26-year-old lefty reliever in Arizona and then logged some postseason time as well. He pitched 56 regular season innings with a 4.18 ERA/3.87 FIP, which isn't amazing, but his 10.77 K/9 IP and 2.25 BB/9 is nice. Bullpen depth piece for now, with hopefully more to come.

[Guardians]

328. Ernie Clement, Draft Pick No. 93 to Kansas City for Travis d'Arnaud, Draft PIck 139

Larry has been moving a lot of players this offseason and he asked if I had interested in d'Arnaud. I really didn't have a huge spot in my heart for him, mainly because he's a veteran guy and I wasn't looking to invest in veterans this offseason. However, when I took a closer look at my catching depth, it became something worth looking at. Last year, once i moved on from Kirk, I snagged Garver, who became an option along with Varsho, who ended up playing a good bit of time there. Korey Lee is more depth, but hasn't shown the ability to hit. Big hopes for Liam Hicks, who had a heck of a year in the minors. Eliezer Alfonzo got a really nice projection. But despite Garver having a great 2023 (.270/.350/.500), he's probably not a 100-game guy. Once I realized that, d'Arnaud became a little more interesting. He's a very good backup with power and a solid receiving/arm combination. If he can have plus defense and hit a few home runs, he'll do just fine hitting ninth in the lineup.

We discussed a number of players, but I tossed out Clement, who I created a long time ago as a prospect. He sat out there until I snagged him again this September, when he decided to hit the cover off the ball at every level of baseball. It's quite a move to have your breakout at age 27 hitting .350 in AAA, followed up by hitting .380 in MLB. He also tacked on 12 HR and ZiPS rewarded him with a .270 average projection. I think the worst case he's a usable starter. The best case is he broke out and will go from here. I hope he can get 350 ABs in the majors this year, playing all over.

Larry wasn't fully convinced of my optimism, so we added in the picks to balance the value. I got my catching depth and Larry picked up some age and a guy who could be more.

[Guardians]

329. Dalton Varsho, Trey Cabbage, Draft Pick No. 139 to New York (AL) for Ceddanne Rafaela, Draft Pick 95

There's nothing like a midnight trade out of nowhere. Z and I occasionally chop it up and talk deals. Sometimes they happen, sometimes I get annoyed that he's so off-base on player values I would say most of the time, we make something happen, even if it happens later. In this case, I asked about Rafaela out of the blue. I wasn't hunting for him, I'm not looking to deal for outfielders this off-season. There really wasn't a ton of motivation other than he is one of the few bright spots on an otherwise pretty bleak Red Sox team. Last year was his age 22 season and he trucked up three levels, finishing with 22 HR and 39 SB. He is not very large, but generates above average raw power as it explodes off his bat. He projects as a future CF with a speed/power/hit combo that gives me a lot of hope.

I originally approached the discussion tossing out Varsho, given Z's move to the Bronx and desire for lefty bats. Varsho is a lefty who happens to already have monster power and great defense. Z hates the Sox almost as much as I hate the Yankees, so I figured we could start there. We both agreed it was a close comparison in terms of the two players' characteristics. Rafaela is younger, faster and a true CF. Varsho has more power, probably a better arm, and a track record. But I really like Varsho. Coming up as a catcher, the Dbacks moved him to the outfield and he had a really good 2022, where he amassed 4.8 wins with speed, power, and elite defense. So, what did they do? They shipped him to Toronto for their future catcher Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel. It was a great move for Arizona and helped get them to the World Series. Varsho struggled. His average and OBP dipped, as did his power. Despite that, he put up a 2-win season after utterly disappointing. So, that's not a bad floor.

The 4-year age difference was something to account for, so I said I would add in something small. Cabbage is a guy we had discussed before, and I felt it was reasonable to work him in. I may regret moving him more than Varsho. He put up a 30/30 season last year, getting a cup of coffee in the majors, where he hit a HR during his short stint. I don't know if this is a blip on the radar or something bigger. I picked him up hoping it was the latter. Because not only did he hit 30 HR and steal 30 bases, he slashed .306/.379/.596. I wouldn't be surprised if the ZiPS computer had a stroke and made him a stud or looks at it as an anomaly and projects him weakly. Given that he's on the Angels, I think he'll have a season to prove himself, since he played LF/CF/RF/1B last year. A fourth round pick by the Twins in 2015, the last FG report by Kiley McDaniel says he's a guy with no power and good defense. So, we'll see if the power is real. I essentially got my pick swap with Larry back on the back end.

[Guardians]

330. Samuel Zavala, Kyle Nelson, Tsung-Che Cheng, Draft Pick No. 80 to Atlanta for Zack Littell, Miguel Bleis

This deal began as a hunt for some pitching and ended with a lot more. I've made no secret that I wanted to get more pitching this offseason and it seems several other teams have a similar goal. I reached out to Brett looking at either Littell or Ian Anderson, who's coming back from TJ. Given that Littell is older and more of a swing starter/reliever, Brett was more willing to move him. Littell just turned 28 and finished 2023 worth a little over a win in only 90 innings, starting half of his 28 appearances. He posted a modest 7.40 K/9 IP, but had a very nice 1.20 BB/9 IP. He's mostly a FB/slider pitcher with a changeup he uses about 20 percent of the time and he posted above average chase rates. ZiPS gave him a 109 ERA+ and a 3.86 ERA, which more than accomplishes my goal of plugging in a decent starter to my rotation. He adds to my depth at the position and will help weather injuries.

As we were talking, I had to ask (as I had many times over) about Bleis. Since Red Sox fans have little hope about the major league team, we look to the minors for inspiration. If not for a shoulder injury that robbed most of his 2023, Bleis probably would be shooting up the prospect boards to start 2024. He's got top-tier bat speed, power, and speed and profiles as a CF. He needs to chase less, but he's producing MLB level exit velocities as a 19-year-old. I'm really excited to see what he can do in 2024 and beyond.

Degen got a few pretty nice pieces from me in exchange. For one, he got a teenage outfielder of his own in Zavala, who had a much better season statistically than Bleis at a higher level. Zavala looks like a RF with a strong arm, good power and good speed. Like Bleis, he needs to cut down on the strikeouts and refine his approach. But both were floating in the back end of top 100 lists last year. Nelson is a lefty for the Dbacks who picked up a 104 ERA+ projection and is 27. He had very nice K and BB/9 ratios last year over 56 MLB innings, so he's someone Brett can plug in right away to replace Littell on the pitching staff. Cheng is a FV 45 infielder who I think could be a utility type with 12-15 HR and 15 SB. He has a good eye at the plate, takes walks, and doesn't get overwhelmed. He should be in a position to make it to Pittsburgh this year. And then he got pick #80, which is a late 3rd rounder.
All in all, I picked up some needed SP depth and a prospect I really like. Brett got a couple nice prospects, a pick and a lefty reliever.

[Guardians]

331. Dylan Tebrake, Brock Burke, Draft Pick No. 47 to San Diego for Adam Macko, Draft Pick 35

This was a fun little trade after I approached Jim with a slightly different idea for Macko and 35. He pivoted to wanting some RP and we settled on Tebrake and Burke. The prize for Jim may end up being Tebrake, who got a really nice projection as a 22 draft pick out of Creighton with a 97 MPH fastball and a sweeper. He looks like a RP all the way, but could be a good one. Burke is a young lefty RP for the Rangers who got a nice 2023 projection and we'll see what it is for 24. His walk rate improved, but his K rate declined year-over-year, but he's been reliable and runs a fastball in the mid-90s.

Macko is an interesting guy. He's a lefty with big K numbers and higher-than-liked walk numbers, but he keeps the ball in the park. FG had him as a FV 45 last year, while MLB had him as a 40. He's a mid=90s FB, curve, slider pitcher who probably will get opportunities to start. If all else fails, he could be a long reliever/spot starter.

The prize here is #35, which is #5 in the second round and a good bet to get me a nice prospect. Any time I can move relief pitching depth for a couple good prospects, I'm going to try to do it.

[Guardians]

332. Jon Berti to Minnesota for Sean Manaea

I saw a little news report about Sean Manaea that made me interested in picking him up for a little SP depth. The report said that that Manaea picked up some velocity last year and added a sweeper and the Mets are banking on him being better than he was in the 118 innings he pitched as a starter and in relief for the Giants last year. He averaged the highest K/9 ratio of his career (9.79) and he reduced the number of HR/9 down to just over 1.0. His xERA, FIP and xFIP were all better than his ERA. And it sounds like he'll be firmly in the rotation next year. He's 32 and only once was a 3 win pitcher, but it seems like a possible sell low.

Berti is a great utility guy to have on the bench. He's 34, has speed, hits for average, takes some walks, limits strikeouts, and plays everywhere. While he stole 41 bases in 2022 and only 16 last year, he brought his average up from .240 in 2022 to .294 in 2023. And he's been worth 2 wins the last two years. With David Hamilton on the bench, I think he can handle most of the backup duties. ZiPS projects both Manaea and Berti to be worth about a win, so it's a swap of positions for both teams.

[Guardians]

333. James Karinchak, Matthew Liberatore, Draft Pick 88, Draft Pick 95 to Miami for Louie Varland, Nathan Martorella, Draft Pick 98, Draft PIck 99

This trade was an attempt to be a help-now and help-later move by upgrading starting pitching and picking up a prospect I really like. Both of the players I move have a decent amount of risk associated with them. A few years ago, Karinchak looked like a big time closer (albeit with a lot of walks) as he got a 140 ERA+ projection in 2022, 123 last year and 112 this year. He's still useful, but when he got sent down to AAA last year as a 28-year-old, it became apparent that he may never fix the control issues. Around the same time Karinchak was closer-ish, Liberatore was a top 50 lefty SP with #2 upside. Similarly, the shine has worn off and while he still throws hard, the fastball seems to be flat. The curve is still great, but after a couple seasons in the majors, he doesn't seem to be turning the corner. He's still only 24, so he has time to fix the issues, but for 2024, he looks like a bullpen/depth piece.

On the return are a couple players who I hope will fill a hole this year. First is Varland. He worked his way into the top 100 before his callup in 2023 after a solid AAA run over 15 starts. Admittedly, he was better as a reliever than a starter for the MLB club and some speculate he may shift there. For 2024, ZiPS likes him more than Liberatore, so I've added a pitcher I feel more comfortable starting, if needed. In the future, I may have unlocked a shut down reliever to replace Karinchak down the road. He averages 95 MPH and throws 4-5 pitches, so there are a lot of potential outcomes here. For this year, I like him more than Liberatore.

The next piece is Martorella. Since most prospect lists aren't out yet, the scouting is a tad unclear at the moment. He didn't crack the Padres' top 10 for Baseball America, though FB and MLB had him as a FV 45 last season with FG putting him at #5 in the system and MLB at 11. In 2023, he came onto the scene, hitting 19 HR and posting very nice walk and BB rates over two levels. In A+, he had a 15% BB rate and only an 18% K rate. Up one level in AA for 23 games, he had a 9% BB rate and 14% K rate. For a 6'1" 224-pound first baseman, those numbers are intriguing. Most reports say that he's slow, has massive power and likely is a 1B, though he's gotten time at the corners. If the Padres can continue tapping into his positive features, I think he's got a chance to be a really nice masher.

[Guardians]

334. Byron Buxton, Ray Kerr, Draft Pick 103 to Anaheim for Christian Yelich, Joel Payamps, Draft Pick 23

I made it clear that Buxton was on my trade block this offseason, not because of him as a player, but more because of my outfield depth coming into the offseason. With Tucker, Garcia, Buxton, Brantley (pre-retirement), Ruiz, and Blackmon on the roster, I felt Buxton was a guy I could move. Once I picked up Rafaela, he almost needed to move to open up the room for the youngster.

I had several conversations about him with different teams, but everyone is (understandably) concerned with his health. When you deal for a guy like Buxton, you know that's a factor. His knees did not treat him well last year and he was a DH only who hit .207. Despite that, he had great barrel %, hard hit rates, exit velocity and baserunning ratings. So, I think he's still undervalued/underappreciated. The dude slashed .284/.359/.633 for me in 100 games in 2023, so I think the sim continues to like him. And he will still have elite CF defense. You know when you get him that there will be missed games, so you factor that into the equation.

Zach and I talked about so many scenarios over the last couple months (hat tip to Ty for inviting him into the league, by the way. Zach's fun to talk trade with) and we went back and forth on players. We discussed a much larger scenario that ultimately didn't pan out. But with Judge in RF and no real CF, this was a match I felt we would eventually figure out. As ZiPS continued to roll out, it helped focus our trade discussions.

The strong Buxton projection along with the realization that he just turned 30 helped his value and once Yelich's projection came out and was notably not as strong as expected, we started with those pieces. As stated above, I wasn't trying to acquire OF since I have plenty. But I think Yelich gives me a really nice leadoff option, something I've lacked since Altuve left town, and especially after Brantley retired. I was planning on him being DH and leadoff, so Yelich will fill the leadoff role with a nice avg/obp and still solid speed and power. He will tableset very well for the mashers behind him.

The real value for me was picking up #23. I enjoy drafting, so getting another first rounder is a really nice get for me. I'm hoping to snag 2-3 really nice pieces with my first three picks and keep bolstering my farm while staying competitive. Payamps was a late addition after he got a slightly above average projection. He will slot in nicely after I moved Karinchak. Kerr is a really solid piece, I think. I scouted him this offseason and then the Braves dealt for him. He's got a high 90s FB and a wicked curve that produces huge swing and miss numbers. I think that bodes well for him in the future. And Zach got back 103 so he can maintain his draftee roster. I think we both fill roster gaps with this one.

[Guardians]

335. Sean Manaea, Draft Pick 99 to Kansas City for Luis Perales, Cade Doughty, Draft Pick 93

The Sean Manaea Era in Cleveland was brief, but impactful. I meant what I wrote before -- the reports on Manaea's increased velocity and stuff are encouraging and I think pitching in Queens will benefit him. It's tough, though, to imagine that Manaea is so good in New York that he becomes truly ZiPS relevant. I think with an average season this year, he remains a #4/5 SP. With a very good season, maybe he's a #3 for a year or so until he hits 35 years old and likely declines. I think he's useful, but not amazing.

Perales and Doughty were two guys I really wanted to snag from Larry. Once Nils moved Perales (and unlocked him from the Curse of Nils on Sox Prospects), he was a guy I was looking at. I also read that the Red Sox have added a slew of pitching development and analytics resources and I'm hoping that helps Perales' development. He and Wilkeman Gonzalez are the best the team has right now and there's some reliever risk with both, but I like the size and the stuff of Perales and I'm hopeful that new resources in the organization can help him unlock his potential.

Doughty is a fun flier as well. An LSU product, Doughty was a 4th rounder in 2022. He busted out in 2023 with 18 home runs in A+, second best in the Northwest League. At 6'1 195, he has a good size and fluctuates between 2B and 3B. I really like the profile and I think he will walk enough to get on base at a decent clip. He obviously has a few steps left, but I think both guys have some really nice potential and help boost my farm. I don't think six picks in the 90s of the draft will make a huge difference, but now I will have to make it count for Larry.

[Guardians]

336. Austin Riley, Draft Pick 93 to Pittsburgh for Zac Gallen, Masyn Winn

It's never easy dealing a top-tier talent, let alone one you got for Mookie Betts. It's even more difficult when dealing with Jake. He was balancing an offer from another team, made an offer, changed it, wanted someone, wanted someone else. It was a roller coaster. And I don't completely blame him -- it's very difficult dealing stars. It makes sense for Jake to move pitching -- with Gallen, Senga, Montgomery, and Musgrove, he's got depth. I certainly also had pitching depth with Nola, Eflin, Bieber, deGrom and others, but it's tough to not try to get a guy like Gallen if you can.

Gallen definitely turned into an ace in 2023, putting up a 5 win season, while maintaining a high K rate and limiting walks for the second straight season. As a 28-year-old, he will likely have another 3-4 seasons of very good numbers ahead of him as he continues his strong career. Adding him to the top of my rotation really stretches the talent, moving Bieber into the #4 spot and eventually #5 once deGrom returns. Barring health, this gives me an amazing rotation and still more than enough offense.

Riley is an outstanding hitter and probably the best 3B in the league and only 26. He had a great 2023 after a slow start. Then he went on an unreal tear in the second half to finish with 37 HR, 97 RBI and 117 runs. He has been consistent as a middle order slugger for the last few years. Taking that out of my lineup will be difficult, but I'm comforted by what I have left -- Seager, Tucker, Olson, Albies, Garcia, Yelich, Garver, etc. make for a formidable offense. I still have Justin Turner waiting to be signed and I am confident he will be fine as a .350 OBP, .430 SLG type guy and can handle the hot corner for a season.

If you looked at an ace and a middle order bat 1-1, I think that would be reasonable, but pitchers are always riskier than hitters and since Riley is a stud, more needed to be in the deal. Winn is a great young player and has an absolute cannon for an arm. Not too many shortstops throw over 90 MPH from the hole, so his elite defense is going to play up for years to come. He's got a 2.4 win projection as a 21-year-old with great defense and a strong combination of power and speed that makes him a very valuable asset. He definitely gives me some options.

[Guardians]

337. Masyn Winn, Louie Varland, Draft Pick 35 to Atlanta for Josh Jung, Nic Enright, Draft Pick 31

This was kind of a Part 2 of last night's larger deal with Jake. I had a hard time envisioning dealing Riley without a backup plan. And despite how much I really like Winn, he's blocked for the moment by Seager. Therefore, being able to move Winn to immediately create a long-term 3B fix was a big motivator in moving Riley in the first place. I knew Jake and Brett had been discussing Winn/Jung while Jake and I were discussing Gallen/Riley, so I thought there was a chance it could all come together. While Brett likes Winn, he was hesitant (rightfully so) to move Jung. The more we talked, the more I felt it was unlikely he would deal Jung. But then the Rangers' ZiPS came out and things quickly changed.

There's no doubt Jung's projection was a little below expectation compared to his All-Star 2023 season. A 106 OPS+ for a rookie who hit 23 HR in 122 games seems light, but when you dive in a little, he put up a 109 OPS+ in real life, so it's not far off. He projects for 19 HR, but in only 461 PA, so it's about 25 over a full season. While he doesn't have the same slash line as Riley (few do), he's going to slot in very nicely as a starting 3B option to fill the gap created by Riley leaving. And he will do it with better defense as well. I imagine that with a strong 2024, Jung can become more like a #6 hitter if he can boost his average/obp and work on his hitting vs. righties. The power is already there.

And I've already said enough about Winn in this space. I think the two top prospects are close in talent. I think Brett saw Jung as more polished and therefore more valuable. I do like that Winn is a major leaguer at 21 and I think he's going to be very good, but there aren't very many good, young 3B out there, so I paid up with Varland, who I think is a very good young pitcher himself. I got back Enright, who's also good, but more of a ZiPS star at the moment. He's going to upgrade my bullpen immediately and while I lose the SP depth in Varland, I got it with Gallen, so it's a wash in depth. I also moved up four spots in early round 2, which sometimes turns into a nice spot to be. All in all, Brett solves a long-term SS hole and I solve a (newly created) long-term 3B hole.

[Guardians]

338. Kyle Tucker, Shane Bieber, Christian Yelich, Erik Swanson to San Diego for Fernando Tatis Jr., Jack Suwinski, Devon Williams, Draft Pick 72

Apparently, this was the Trade Heard 'Round the World, or at least the trade commented on by the Council of Angry IBC Owners. Any time big names move, it seems to get people talking. And that's not always bad for a league that typically hits a two-month lull in the winter. But that's not why this trade was made.

I had asked JB about Tatis many times, but he had no interest in dealing him once he lost focus on baseball and the league. A few months after Jim drafted him in the minidraft, I asked and was rebuffed. Recently, after I acquired Gallen, I tossed out the idea again just to see what Jim was thinking. To my surprise, he considered it.

I started the offer with Tucker, which seems like the obvious initial player based on their respective positions and talent levels. Because Jim just dealt Machado to pick up Schwarber, Wisdom, and Williams, it seemed to me that he was trying to make a move for 2024 after years of struggling in the loaded American League. The National League, in contrast, is wide open.

So, Tatis and Tucker: Tatis is an amazing talent and certainly looks to be poised to be a superstar for years. He's only 25 and he's already been worth 18 wins as a pro. He had an outstanding rookie season in 2019, went crazy during the shortened 2020 season and then put up MVP numbers in 2021. Then he had offseason shoulder surgery, broke his wrist, and then got busted for PEDs, completely erasing his 2022. His return in 2023 was interesting to watch, as he fully transitioned to RF for the first time and was in a lineup with Soto, Bogaerts, Machado, etc, etc. He was very good. He hit 25 home runs and stole 29 bases. However, his .257/.322/.449 slash line was a far cry from 2021's .282/.364/.611. However, his defense became elite in RF, where he registered an insane 29 defensive runs saved. Tucker, however, is no slouch. He's been a 5-win player the last three years and he's still only 27. He's a borderline 30/30 player each year and over the last three years is only second to Ronald Acuna Jr. in steals for players with more than 80 home runs. In 2023, he was No. 9 among offensive producers, per FG, walking 12 percent of the time and only striking out 13.6 percent of the time, which is rare for a home run hitter. His defense is not on Tatis' level. In 2023, he registered 1 defensive run saved, despite being in the teens the two prior years. I don't have a diagnosis, but ZiPS noticed. Tucker is a +2, while Tatis is a +9. We'll see how that translates.

I then offered to include Yelich and Suwinski. Suwinski was projected to be a backup outfielder upon prospect graduation, but has shown to be more than that. Over his first two seasons, he's been worth roughly 4.5 wins, showing good power, lacking a strong bat but making up for it with an ability to walk, along with below average fielding -- all of which match his scouting report. But I think he's been better than expected and ZiPS has rewarded him with a strong 2024 projection. His .346 OBP and .467 slugging will be an asset in the bottom third of the lineup, but his defense isn't helpful. Let's see if he can keep it up. Yelich, coming off a 4-win season, didn't get ZiPS love in some areas. He projects to slash .251/.354/.415 with 20/20 potential (18 HR/19 SB) and ok D in LF. After slashing .278/.370/.447 with 19 HR and 28 SB, I expected closer to 2.5 wins, but I think Yelich is a table setter (which is why I got him from Zach), and a help this year, whereas Suwinski's low average pushes him down in the lineup. Suwinski is 7 years younger, so there's a significant age difference and it's more of a win now vs. help later scenario. I can see Yelich having 2-3 more productive seasons before declining. He could also turn into a Michael Brantley, where he hits for average and OBP for a while. Suwinski looks like a slugging corner OF with a decent enough OBP, depending on whether he can hit around .225-.235.

Then we discussed Devin Williams and Erik Swanson. Williams is an elite RP who got a 145 ERA+ projection with a high K rate and high BB rate and a 3.00 ERA. Swanson, meanwhile, checks in with a 119 ERA+, with 2 fewer K over 9 innings and one fewer walk with roughly the same WHIP and a higher ERA (3.60 to 3.00). Williams is a closer, while Swanson is a very good setup pitcher. I think with a handful of core RP, Jim will have a solid bullpen, but this part of the deal moves his bullpen from strength to average/not a liability. Adding another solid RP would help him out.

The last piece of the deal is, I think, what made this something Jim wanted to consider. After dealing for Gallen, I had four aces and a fifth in deGrom when he returns, providing quite a bit of firepower. If Jim wanted to compete, he needed strong pitching. Verlander, Morton, and Garrett are an ok start, but probably not enough to get over the hump. Bieber's ZiPS projection is elite. With WAR as a guide, FG has him worth 3.9 wins over a standardized full season, 12th best in the league. His 119 ERA+ is top-tier among SP and he's only 28, even though it seems like he's been around forever, averaging more than 3 wins per season over his career, including the shortened 2020. His strikeout rate dropping last year is a caution, but he finished strong, with a 10 K/9 and >1 BB/9 ratio at the end of the season. Bieber instantly becomes Jim's ace and now lengthens his rotation. If he does end up with a strong pitcher in the draft, he would then have five strong starting pitchers, which gives him an advantage coming into the season. I had Bieber long before he was on the prospect map, so I may value him higher than Jim, but I think he's a top tier SP and probably has 3 more top-notch years before he settles into a mid-rotation role. However, since he has relied on his command and pitching smarts over power his entire career, it's possible he will have success longer. I wouldn't bet against him. In this part of the trade, I got back an early/mid third rounder.

Giving up the best player in a deal is difficult, but the way Jim and I discussed this deal was centered around him getting a similar stud back in Tucker, adding a more helpful player to his offense in Yelich over Suwinski and then getting a coveted ace, which is difficult to get in this market. Very little pitching is available. I gave up a monster young hitter to get Gallen, who is two years older. And those who have SP around 23-26 are unlikely to deal them. So, I think Jim gets his pitching and improves offensively this year. I think he gives up age and he gives up Tatis. Because I had the pitching to spare and an outfield that can absorb Suwinski's defense, I was able to start the conversation in the first place. I hope Jim can make a run and get into the playoffs and beyond and I think he has some assets to make that a reality.

[Guardians]

339. Giovanny Gallegos to Tampa Bay for Draft Pick 47

There's something unsettling dealing a formerly really good relief pitcher who has a down year. There's a good chance that relief pitcher will bounce back in a big way and coast for another few years on the bounce back. I think that could really happen with Gallegos. He has been a very strong setup/closer type projection for the last 3-4 years. Things definitely went south for him in 2023, as he got hurt and struck out fewer players than he historically had. You could argue it was a debacle for the Cardinals overall, but the bullpen was especially disastrous. That said, ZiPS still believes in him, giving him a 115 ERA+ projection. He will be a very good reliever for Matt, who desperately needed some help. I have other depth, so I felt I could spare him.

No. 47 in this draft I think sets me up pretty well for a very nice prospect. In total, I should come away with four very nice prospects to add to my farm system, which is already in good shape. I should have enough MLB depth to compete and get through the season and hopefully some nice players coming up the ranks.

[Guardians]

340. Joel Payamps to Cincinnati for Jake Fraley

Payamps had a nice 2023 breakout after a couple of low ERA, low K, highish FIP seasons where he bounced around the league. His 77 K to 17 BB ratio over 70.2 IP checks a lot of RP boxes, which positions Ken well over the next couple seasons if Payamps can repeat the success. His ZiPS actually has him better vs lefties than righties, which is interesting. But it has him above average in ERA+ overall.

Fraley is a corner OF with a fringy arm and above average power and speed. He turned in a nice 2023 as well, posting a .256/.339/.443 line with 15 HR and 21 SB over only 380 PA. That got him a nice 103 OPS+, which also checks in slightly above league average. It's a simple swap of positions of guys at about the same point in their careers and talent levels.

I plan to utilize Fraley as a bat off the bench who has pretty even splits but can hit against lefties, while Turner mashes lefties. If Rafaela struggles in the sim, I could see shifting Garcia to CF and putting Fraley in LF, given Suwinski's defensive struggles. We'll see what the database shows when it's released (hopefully soon!)

[Guardians]

341. Ramon Laureano to Tampa Bay for Daniel Lynch

Once Fraley made his way into town, Laureano wasn't needed. In fact, he wasn't really needed anyway, but I picked him up last year due to his RF defense to provide some depth and that carried over into a 1-2 win projection, which is nice for a bench piece. I like Fraley better off the bench, so he was dispensable. Matt and I had discussed him previously, but never landed on the right combination. I asked what he'd offer last night and he came back with Lynch and after a short discussion, we settled on that.

Laureano gives Matt some OF depth and ability to mix and match players. Lynch gives me a less helpful projection, but an arm to hope on. He reportedly feels great (doesn't everyone in spring training?!) and has added 25 pounds to help build up muscle to fix his shoulder issues from last year. I'm hoping he doesn't see the field for the IBC Guardians in 2024, but he at least provides some depth in the rotation. The hope is that the 27-year-old can win the #5 spot for KC and show the talent he has, improving his stock for the future. I still like the stuff and profile. Fun gamble.

[Guardians]

342. Trevor Rogers, Termarr Johnson, Draft Pick 28, Troy Taylor to San Francisco for Jesus Luzardo, Gavin Stone

I think the last time Jake and I really connected was sometime in 2022. The last time we had discussed a trade was 2021, when I had asked about Luzardo. He was on my wish list then, but I think Jake was knee-deep in the global investment sector to really engage. Fast-forward to 2024 and I reached out to make sure he knew it was draft time. To my surprise he responded and more to my surprise, he started drafting and making trades. When he asked about available bats, I offered up a few, Johnson among them, to get a sense of his interest level. And I'm sure glad I did. Otherwise, he would have foolishly traded for a Rockies shortstop prospect who hit .140 in AA last year.

When Jake asked what I wanted for Johnson, I instantly reached back to try to get Luzardo, not really thinking it would happen. After all, he was coming off his best season to-date. I tossed out an offer of Johnson, Rogers and 31 for Luzardo and 64, assuming he would reject. He had some targets in the draft and wanted to wait to see who fell. When targets went off the board, he wanted 28 instead. I asked if he had a RP or prospect he could toss back to move up the three picks and he offered Stone or Hjelle, the latter of which I didn't want at all. Seeing that Stone had a usable but not great projection and poor 2023 but formerly was ranked as a prospect, I offered Waldichuk to send back a young SP. He asked for Taylor to get 22 draftees. The deal was done.

Rogers is younger than Luzardo by about six weeks and put together one of the better second-year seasons in a long time in 2021, when he put up a 4-win season as a 23-year-old. But that's tough to remember after two years of injuries has robbed him of that momentum. Back, lat and biceps strains have limited him to 125 innings over the last two years and not at the best level. Yet, ZiPS treated Rogers and Luzardo similarly.

Luzardo: 8-9 3.88 ERA 153 IP 173K 53 BB 109 ERA+
Rogers 6-7 4.06 ERA 102 IP 103K 34 BB 104 ERA+

The injury situation can't be denied, but as a basis for a deal, they are both young, lefty starters in the same park with a relatively close projection. Yet, given the injury history, I knew more needed to be added. Johnson was a big part of that. A nearly consensus top 50 prospect, on average, Johnson moved up two levels of professional baseball at the rough equivalency of a high school senior/college freshman. He walked more than 20 percent of the time, showed great power, some speed and maintained an OBP over .400. There's not really a clear comp for him as a 2B with power and a great eye, but if he hits for power and gets on base 35-40 percent of the time, he'll be making all star teams.

Then Jake also got a first round pick, No. 28, which he turned into Farmelo. He was another guy on my short list (and one of the remaining top 100 list-makers). Taylor had some buzz late last year as a Mariners RP prospect who strikes guys out. We'll see if it continues.

I bought myself (in theory) slightly more pitching certainty in Luzardo and I added a Dodgers pitching prospect, which tends to be a good investment. Jake got a slightly less certain pitcher in Rogers, a really good prospect in Johnson, a maybe good prospect in Farmelo, who he wanted, and a maybe future RP in Taylor.

You're all welcome for waking up this dead league.