All The Guardians Trades

[Guardians]

297. Max Muncy, Brandon Lowe to Boston for Ozzie Albies, Nelson Cruz

This was a random offer I tossed out to Patrick, essentially looking to get a little younger at 2B, using Muncy as the currency to get there. Lowe is a 35-home run threat at 2B when healthy. Unfortunately, back issues got in the way in 2022 and my investment in him didn't pan out last year. I have no doubt he'll be back in 2023 with the Rays, and he turns 29 in July. I expect he'll get a 3+-win projection, providing a middle of the order bat for Patrick and some increased power. Muncy gives him a younger DH option than he had in Cruz, and a guy who can platoon at 1B with Cron, if needed. HIs lineup improves overall.

In return, I get a coveted asset in Albies, who's 25 (for another week), so I'm saving about 2.5 years at the position and getting a pre-prime Albies. Like Lowe, 2022 was a lost year for Albies, who was hampered by a foot injury and a pinky fracture that ultimately ended his season. But I love adding a switch hitter to the order who can bat either at the top or in the second part of the order due to his power and what will likely amount to a slight upgrade defensively. But I take out of the lineup Muncy, who while hitting under .200 still crushed 21 bombs and amassed a 2+ win season. In his place, I add Nelson Cruz, ala Boomstick, who's now 42 (older than me!) and hungry to play another season in 2023. At this point, I think he's the kind of guy who could sign in Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Cincinnati, etc. and be able to play all year. His 2022 was horrible after his 2021 was actually quite good, so from a ZiPS perspective, I think there will be a drop off, but not a situation where he's a drop. If he doesn't sign, that's a problem, but I solve my lineup imbalance with this one and pick up who I think is the best player in the deal.

[Guardians]

298. Edward Cabrera, Jarren Duran, Robert Gasser to Atlanta for Dalton Varsho, Owen White

What a big trade to end 2022 (#34 of the year. #BigPapi!) I think I first asked Degen about Varsho in October, recognizing that it was going to take a long time to pry him away after a tremendous 2022 campaign. As expected, Brett was hesitant at first and we didn't really start kicking around trade parameters until mid-November. Week after week, we continued narrowing things down until we basically got to this structure last week. In the mean time, Brett and Matt started talking about a deal that became important for Brett to complete before moving Varsho. He wanted to lock up an outfield prospect first, and so we waited on those talks to finish up. All-in-all, Brett moved some mid-to-late 20s MLB guys for several young studs. But, back to this deal.

Varsho was 25 to start 2022 and was coming off a 2021 season where he was a little under the radar in a little more than half a season. In 2022, he jumped onto everyone's minds after crushing 27 bombs and stealing 16 bases while being the rare CF, RF, C player. This provides a great deal of value in the sim, and so he was a guy I really wanted. His projection as a RF was a bit frustrating, because I really like him in center. The deal to Toronto (after the Blue Jays signed Kiermaier) solidified that he'll be in right field next year. Obviously, Kiermaier is a short-term situation and Varsho will likely keep CF and C ratings for a couple years, I hope he slides over to center field soon. I also keep looking at his low BABIP and strong barrel percentage and I think he's got another level ahead of him. Here's to hoping 2022 was just the beginning.

Degen wanted Cabrera to start discussions and I understand why. He's got an electric arm and while he has struggled to stay healthy, he showed his stuff in 2022, averaging 96 on his fastball en route to a 3.01 ERA over 71.2 innings with 75 strikeouts. After moving Suarez, I was a little hesitant to move Cabrera, but I knew it was only fair to start there. Brett also wanted some outfield help, and we discussed both Duran and Swaggerty. Having moved Swaggerty to Minnesota, that left Duran. It's hard to describe how much I like Duran and how frustrating it has been to watch him struggle. The Sox drafted Duran in the 8th round in 2018 and he came out hitting over .350 in his first season as a pro, gaining Mookie Betts comps for being a 2B converting to the outfield. I targeted him early and snagged him with pick No. 69. I loved him there and watched as he went from "old for his level" to top 25 prospect with speed and power in centerfield. I still think, and hope he can be that top of the order table setter like Jacoby Ellsbury was. Clearly, ZiPS still loves him since he's been trash for two years and he's still getting above replacement-level projections. If I end up regretting the trade, it will likely be because of Duran. I hate to give up on him, but I also think the value represented by Varsho was worth the gamble.

Dealing away Cabrera interested me in getting a pitching prospect back so I could refill that depth of losing a top tier young pitcher. I knew Greene, Harrison and Brown weren't going to be in the deal, and Brett suggested White. I honestly didn't know too much about him. A big pop-up guy in 2022 with Texas, White jumped into prospect lists after mowing down hitters over two levels while reducing walks in AA. For being a 23-year-old who only pitched 21 innings in AA, ZiPS seems to like him already, giving him a 96 ERA+ projection worth 1 win in 88 innings. Looking like a mid-top 100 prospect, I liked getting him back and offered Degen his choice of Gasser or Andrew Abbott, both FV 45 lefties. He chose Gasser, who I just got back from Nick last week, but who was able to be moved when getting a guy like White in my farm.

The deal nets me a huge bat who I will use in CF and backup C this year and I get a top 100 prospect to add to the stable of up-and-comers in Cleveland. I think Cabrera ends up getting a really nice projection, and gives Atlanta 4 young stud starting pitchers. If Duran has a good year in 2023 -- a huge IF -- he could make a leap and make Degen a very happy man. Gasser looks like a #3/4 type, while I'm hopeful White is a touch ahead of that. If so, he might be able to slide into the rotation in 2024.

[Guardians]

299. Ryne Nelson, Owen White, Nick Nastrini, Alex Ramirez, Hao Yu Lee to Philadelphia for Byron Buxton, Charlie Morton

Before Nick's post, I had no reason to make too many more big deals this offseason. After Varsho, I had a strong outfield with sufficient substitutes and depth and no real need to add to that group. But after his post, I reached out to see what kind of package he was looking for. We started a discussion about Buxton and Nola (again, not a need, but I'll always explore talent on the market), and that included just about every top prospect on my roster. Nick was having other discussions for Nola and I got the sense he was more interested in pursuing those. So, once I got that sense, I pulled out of talks for Nola, and focused more on Buxton. I did ask about Morton to add some SP depth for all I knew I'd be losing, but we settled in on those two as part of a deal.

There's no doubt that Buxton is a stud of a player. He's a guy everyone has wanted at some point in these types of leagues, ever since the 2012 draft. But while everyone understands his talent, everyone understands his frailty. Now 29, Buxton has only cracked 100 games once in his MLB career (since 2015). When he's healthy, he's been amazing. He posted 4 wins in only 92 games last year, hitting a career high 28 HR. He remains an elite center fielder and while he's not running as much as he did when he was younger, he still is a strong baserunner. The injuries, particularly those affecting his legs, have hampered that part of his game. ZiPS gave him an insane 137 OPS+ with 3.9 wins in 350 PA, which is 32 fewer than he had in 2022. *When healthy,* he's among the best at his position.

Morton, who is basically dead in MLB terms, has a chance to be a pretty good 4th pitcher in the rotation for me. While I gave up Nelson and White (both of whom got usable projections), I still have Eflin, Liberatore, and Eder, who all can see time this year in Cleveland. So, Morton wasn't a guy I needed and he doesn't have a ton of value in a league like this, but I think he should be a more trusted #4 starter in a playoff series. While he had a great 2022 projection, his 2022 season was really bad, and his batted ball data was not good, particularly on his fastball. I suspect ZiPS will adjust him downward appropriately, but I hope he's healthy enough to use. Both of the guys I picked up have major health concerns, but also have the talent to make me better.

So, let's talk about the return for Nick.

There's a lot of quantity for Nick to build around, but he doesn't get a consensus top 25 prospect (not that I know he was being offered one elsewhere). But what he does get are three pitching prospects who are close to the majors all of whom have favorable ZiPS with only a combined three major league starts, all of which bodes well for them developing into future IBC assets.

Ryne Nelson is still 24 and had a strong MLB debut last year, albeit after a shaky AAA season. The strong K rate (over 12/9 IP) he enjoyed up to AA weakened to 8.5/9 IP last year. But then he turned in an impressive three starts for the DBacks, tossing up a 1.47 ERA over those 18.1 innings and ZiPS likes him at 8.3 K/9IP this year. He looks to be on the cusp of the top 100 lists after his showing this year. I think his 2023 performance will influence what ZiPS thinks of him moving forward, so it's a key year.

White is currently #66 on BA's list as a high upside SP with great control. Moving from A+ to AA last year earned him positive scouting reports and prospect writers believing he has the upside to be a legit upper-middle starting pitcher. At only 23, White looks like a great one to have. The last of the arms is Nick Nastrini. He was a target of mine in last year's draft and I snagged him at #75 after seeing the solid draft grades as a big strikeout guy. He has not disappointed in that regard, averaging north of 12 strikeouts per game. That has also come with more than 4 walks per game, which is concerning. However, Baseball Prospectus has enough confidence in him that they put him at #54 on their top 101 list, given how electric his arm is. He has a little more risk than the other two arms, but he also probably has the most electric arm, which, if harnessed, could boost him up the prospect charts.

Nick also took two solid prospect hitters from me. Alex Ramirez (Mets CF) is a personal favorite. In fact, I got him from Nick not that long ago. I think he has the upside to be a speed/power center fielder with elite defense and arm. I see him as somewhat of a Mike Cameron comp since he doesn't walk a ton, but his strikeouts are also very impressive for a 19-year-old. He has been anywhere from the mid 70s to 90s on prospect lists, so he is another asset Nick should be able to bank on. The list piece is Hao Yu Lee, another guy I targeted in last year's draft. Lee came to me at No. 60, after I saw clips and reports of an 18-year-old kid from Korea who could rake and who was coming to the States in the Phillies system. In his first time in pro ball, he has not disappointed, showing to be a bat-first profile with a good ability to walk and, like Ramirez, power and a touch of speed.

I think Nick will end up with five major leaguers out of this deal. He gets two teenagers who have nice upside and three 25-under starting pitchers, all of whom he can use this year, and all of whom have the ability to pitch in the majors as early as this season. It's certainly tough to deal such a dynamic player as Buxton, but when you do and you're rebuilding, picking up as many guys as possible who are on prospect lists with upside is important. I think he could have picked up one prospect in a deal or a prospect and a pick, but ultimately he chose the larger package. I hope it works out for him and I hope Buxton is not on the IL going into the playoffs.

[Guardians]

300. Joey Lucchesi, Wynton Bernard to New York (NL) for New York (NL) Draft Pick 2, Felix Valerio

What a follow-up to the blockbuster. Actually, John and I kicked around a couple scenarios a few weeks ago and couldn't find the right pieces to fit. I messaged him during football games to ask about this same offer, but with Norby instead of Valerio. John said he was pretty high on Norby and I wasn't going to really push. After all these trades, I had too many pitchers and too many outfielders, so I wanted to shed a few. Lucchesi, being a Met, was a good starting place. And Bernard ended up with a really good projection after a fun debut last year at 32 in Colorado. He's got a great average, some power and good speed. I think Bernard is a great #4 outfielder and occasional starter and Lucchesi looks like a solid #6 starter.

In return, I snag another top 60 pick and then Valerio, who's a tiny 5-foot-7, 165 pounds, but who has great speed, a good eye, and maybe enough power to eke out a role in the majors one day. At a minimum, he fills the depth of losing Lee with a 2B who can fall into the system as a FV 45 type with some upside.

[Guardians]

301. Michael Taylor to Minnesota for Ethan Hankins and New York (AL) Draft Pick 3

Taylor was traded to Minnesota, which automatically makes him a target for Jason. I offered him, I asked for Hankins and a 3 and here we are.

Taylor is a fine backup outfielder and solid defense CF, but that's where it ends. Hankins is a once really good, now really hurt pitcher. 2023 seems like a pretty big year for his development, so let's see what happens. The pick will clearly become a future Hall of Famer. Win for me.

[Twins]

This trade is clearly the equivalent of the Twins releasing David Ortiz. It is inevitable.

[Royals]

Not many balls will fall in that OF with Michael Taylor, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler out there.

[Guardians]

302. David Robertson to Tampa Bay for Kevin Kelly

Once Matt picked up Kelly via ZiPS bidding, I reached out to pick up the good projection. I asked what he liked and he chose Robertson to be a backup closer for Bednar. I got younger and he got a more reliable back end reliever.

[Guardians]

303. Yankees Draft Pick 1, Cristian Santana to Houston for Brice Turang, Blaze Jordan

Ty and I chat frequently and he had been after my picks for a while and I am a fan of Turang, so after some back and forth we settled on this. I think if he drafts well, Ty does pretty good on this deal. Santana was a sleeper top 100 guy going into 2022 and got off to a really slow start. But he's only 19 in A ball, so he's very young for the league and I expect an adjustment and some of that buzz to return. Pick #21 is probably a good spot for an international guy, so there's a lot of upside potential here for Ty.

On my end, I get Turang, who looks to be moving off SS with Adames planted there, or maybe a SS if he gets dealt. Milwaukee has been moving him to 2B and CF, so I think he's got some multi-position possibility in the future. I love his speed, low K rate, workable walk rate and a little bit of pop he showed between AA and AAA this year. Let's get him on the field and see what he can do and hopefully he's in the majors at 23 and starts his career off right. Jordan is just a homer situation with the hopes that his monster power keeps playing in games and he turns into a hot corner option in the future. I liked him since I saw that stupid 500+ foot homer when he was in high school, so I'd like to see that in Fenway one day.

[Guardians]

304. Lourdes Gurriel to St. Louis for Tim Mayza, Nick Frasso

I've had Gurriel on the block for quite a while. When I got him from KC, I envisioned he would be my starting LF until Brantley was fully healthy or they could fall into some kind of platoon. But during the offseason, a few things happened. First, I traded for Varsho and Buxton, so my OF became full. Second, Gurriel got traded, which improved his projection. Third, Boston signed Adam Duvall, who was sitting on the wire, and I snagged a 2-win LF. Knowing I no longer really had a spot for Gurriel, I wanted to move him. I got very few hits, but eventually JP and I connected and the deal was pretty simple.

Mayza is a 31-year-old lefty reliever that fills a hole since Minter is likely a closer or late set up guy, but was my only left-hander. Mayza has an exceptional GB rate, decent K numbers and great success against lefties. He'll be a guy I can call on late in games or in key spots out of the pen, which was a need I wanted to address. Frasso is a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher that got traded to the Dodgers last year, so he's likely going to be in ace in the next two seasons. Anytime the Dodgers have a pitcher, I'm interested, so Frasso fits the mold. He used 2022 to recover from TJ, so 2023 is a big year for the hard-throwing starter. He's got #3 upside.

[Guardians]

305. Guardians Draft Pick 2 to Philadelphia for Eugenio Suarez, Phillies Draft Pick 3

Quickest and easiest deal ever. Nick made a post; I saw the post. I sent Nick a PM; deal was done. I really didn't want to move down in this draft, as I had several targets at No. 55. But it's really tough to pass up a 2.5 win 3B for a drop of 22 spots in the middle of the draft. I just hope there are guys I still like at 77, but it's good to have more firepower and still be able to snag a draft prospect. I originally created Suarez, so it's good to get him back, albeit after his peak seasons in Cincy. But he's coming off a 4-win season (that ZiPS didn't quite honor). I'm hoping he has another solid season and -- Voila! -- he's back to being a ZiPS star.

[Guardians]

306. Mauricio Dubon to St. Louis for Charlie Blackmon

I think what's now clear is that this deal solidifies JP and I as the frontrunners to meet in the World Series. Somehow, Dubon will now track down a Charlie Blackmon ball...and then promptly throw it into the stands.

Pretty standard deal here. I had no left-handed bat options, so I asked about Blackmon. JP asked for something and I offered Dubon. I don't think either of us were terribly excited, but, hey...trade! Blackmon's 36, but at least he's got a .272/.332/.426 slash line. Dubon's 28, and has a 1.8-win projection without great offense and he plays a bunch of positions. Odds either make it on our teams? Very low.

[Guardians]

307. Joe Musgrove, AJ Minter, JD Davis, Nick Anderson to Washington for Jacob deGrom, Phillies Draft Pick 3, Guardians Draft Pick 3.

This was kind of an insane blockbuster that came out of nowhere. It started with a simple inquiry to Ian because I was trying to get back into the draft and I noticed he had recently dealt away a pick. We started chatting about positions where Ian needed help, which led to some discussions around Davis, Anderson, and a few others and I casually mentioned I would be interested in picks, prospects, Alonso, or deGrom (joking/not joking). He then threw out a pretty serious offer that I countered, he countered, and then we had a deal. I definitely did not come into Monday night thinking I'd be walking away with Jacob deGrom as my new ace, but here we are. Let's break it down.

I honestly was thinking I'd deal Ian Nick Anderson for a pick or prospect and call it a night, but it got much larger than that in a hurry. On my side, it's obvious that I'm getting one asset here. And he happens to be a monster. deGrom is a polarizing sim/fantasy player because he's the best pitcher in baseball when healthy. He's just not healthy that often. And, great, now I have deGrom and Buxton! There's no doubt that if he pitches in the playoffs, I have a pretty sizeable advantage over an opponent. With the potential of Urias and Bieber right behind him, a playoff rotation is amazing. That said, the odds of that rotation being there in October seems fairly low. But, sometimes you just have to take the gamble. If Musgrove were a future ace or had a ton of projection, I don't think I'd be considering this. However, I think Musgrove is a very good #2/3 starter and he's hit a plateau. He may prove me wrong, but I think that's his limit. So, what's the gap?

Ian started off asking for Urias, who I wasn't interested in moving. When he was willing to discuss Musgrove (whom we had discussed previously), I became more interested. Ian wanted Davis (who got a very good projection, comparable to some solid 1B) to put in a 1B/DH situation with Alonso, and he was looking for bullpen help. I was open to moving Anderson, who I snagged last year when he signed with Atlanta, and a lefty RP (ideally Mayza). When Ian wanted either Minter over Mayza or Gallegos/Karinchak over Anderson, I chose to keep the righties and deal the lefty. I may regret that, as I'm very high on MInter, but I am also worried about the injury risk on Anderson. So, ultimately, I kept Gallegos/Karinchak as my back end guys and will use Mayza a little more frequently. This is a hit to my bullpen, but a big upgrade to my rotation.

Ultimately, the Anderson/Davis side of the deal was dealing from depth, so the bullpen hit will end up being the biggest impact. I'll be on the hunt to fill some of that gap and already found a pretty good projection in Dominic Leone, so we'll see if the pen will hold up throughout the grind of the season. For tonight, I get to dream of deGrom/Urias/Bieber. Let's see how long it lasts.

[Guardians]

308. Felix Valerio to Washington for Nationals Draft Pick 4

This is clearly the most impactful trade I've made with the Nationals in the last week. Franchise-altering stuff here.

[Guardians]

309. Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jake Eder, Nick Frasso, Brice Turang, Lewin Diaz to Houston for Alejandro Kirk, Oswaldo Osorio, Ed Howard

This is the result of what was left of another major deal Ty and I had been discussing for some time. When related offers/deals fell through, I returned to focus solely on the main piece I was after -- Kirk. I'll admit -- it's a bit painful trading five prospects for a guy I once dropped due to post-draft cuts. But the projection Kirk provides heals that sting a little.

Overall, my team is strong top to bottom, but catcher was the one area where I felt very vulnerable. Grandal, 34, and coming off a year where he had a sub-.300 slugging percentage didn't feel like the best starting situation, despite ZiPS loving him for his years of past successes. His fWAR seems to have actually increased on FG from 2.6 at ZiPS release to 3.5 now over 109 games. He now looks to be a fantastic DH/backup C. Bethancourt was a one-time stud prospect, went overseas and came back to Tampa Bay to put up a really productive 1.9-win season over 101 games as a catcher and first baseman. ZiPS rewarded him with strong D and power but low average and OBP and he remains relatively unproven. Serven is all D and is a #3 catcher. With that crew, it was going to be a little touch-and-go. Kirk adds a very good projection, with his signature low K/decent walk situation and he showed plus D last year, which is more than I expected when I had him in 2019. He's shown plus framing and blocking and athleticism behind the plate for a guy who's so stocky. I'm hoping that continues. Kirk probably allows me to move Albies down into a lineup slot that allows him to drive in more runs, while I put the OBP higher up in the lineup. This stretches my lineup further. Osoorio and Howard were kickbacks to keep some prospects on the squad. Osorio walked 39 times in 44 games as a 17-year-old and also slugged pretty well in the DSL. No one questions Howard's defense, as he could be a Gold Glover if he makes it. The bat lags behind, but the Cubs seem encouraged despite some injuries.

Ty gets four guys who I believe will be in the top 100 this year, headlined by a player I think will be very special. I picked him up in a relatively small deal at the 2021 trade deadline with Miami and said this about him at the time, "Rodriguez is only 18 in his first pro season. He's got seven home runs with a little speed, a good eye and a lot of raw power. I think he's a legitimate prospect who has a nice future in store." That seems to have come true so far, with some prospect pundits putting him in the top 50 after a season that saw him post a 28.6 walk rate, which led to a .492 OPB and .551 slugging percentage. He has plus-plus raw power, amazing eye and a great arm that will probably land him in right field. If not for a season-ending knee surgery last year, he'd likely be higher up most prospect lists. I think the only person who likes Rodriguez more than me is Ty, as he's been asking about him since he joined the league.

In addition to a stud in Rodriguez, Ty asked for Jake Eder, Nick Frasso, and Brice Turang. Turang I just got from him pre-draft because he was a top 100 prospect last year with plus speed and versatility, which will likely land him a starting role in Milwaukee to start the year. Turang doesn't strike out much and showed some power last year along with 34 steals. I see him as a 2B to start the year, with an occasional spot start in CF. Eder is a guy I had to have when I was talking to Kansas City about Travis d'Arnaud late last year. Coming off TJ, he's risky, but he's also got a monster arm and had top 100 buzz after 2021 before surgery. Despite being drafted in 2020 and only having 71 AA innings under his belt, ZiPS gave him a 4.01 ERA projection with 10K/9 IP. If he stays healthy, Eder has a chance to move quickly up the ranks and into the Miami rotation. Another fast-riser is Frasso, whom the Dodgers picked up last year in a trade with the Blue Jays. Dodgers' pitchers have special sauce to become studs, and Frasso looks like he could be next. Frasso moved up three levels over 16 starts last year, with most of it coming with a sub-2 ERA and insanely good K to walk ratios. He ended poorly over 4 AA starts, but it hasn't tampered the buzz coming into 2023. He looks like another guy who will steadily increase his status as the year goes on. Finally, Lewin Diaz. My old friend from about 2015 who has a pretty nice 2-win projection and nice slugging percentage, but he was a guy I could afford to move.

It's a huge deal and another that really guts my farm system after spending much of the offseason building it up. However, I solved one the my true weaknesses with a 24-year-old catcher who should bring me excellence at the position for many years with offense that is rarely seen at the position. Ty further bets on upside with the deal and has four guys who have a great chance to turn into prospect studs very soon.

[Guardians]

310. Charlie Morton, Adam Duvall to Kansas City for Marcus Stroman, Joey Meneses, Cristofer Torin

I asked Larry about Meneses a few times, but we could never really come up with a scenario that made sense. Then, the other day, Larry asked about Morton and Duvall. While neither are franchise players, both represented value on my team. Morton ended up getting a much better projection than I expected after an overall lackluster 2022. While he finished 10th in the major leagues in strikeouts (205), which is incredible for a 38-year-old, he gave up 28 home runs and ended the season with a 4.34 ERA and 4.11 FIP. He was below his standard, but ZiPS loves him anyway, and he ended up with a 113 ERA+ projection and 2.4 wins, both far above what I expected from the projection system that tends to really dislike guys over 30. Duvall was just a random pickup after the Red Sox signed him this offseason. He's always been that weird guy who offers nothing in average and OBP but has tons of power and good D. This year in Fenway, I can see Duvall raking with 30+ home runs, 30+ doubles and if he ends up with AV/VG defense in CF, there's a valuable profile there. His .492 slugging puts him in the top 25 of projections. So, while the ages of the players demur their value some, they are both players who have value this year. Duvall I was higher on due to his Red Soxdom, but also because he provided valuable reassurance behind Buxton. That said, he was a backup, so I would be open to dealing him.

So, while we discussed the idea of my side of the deal, we hadn't really discussed anything specific. Meneses would be a nice piece to match the Duvall side, but I didn't want to give up a pitcher with Morton's projection and not getting anything solid back. There weren't too many pitchers Larry wanted to move here and for good reason. But when he tossed out Stroman and Torin (whom we had discussed briefly before) in a 3-2 scenario, it was something I could do. I think long-term it's a win for me. I think short-term it's probably a push.

Stroman is a few years younger than Morton, his ERA/FIP are similar in projection, he strikes out slightly fewer batters and comes with a slightly lower fWAR. For this year, it's close and maybe a wash. We'll see how the sim actually responds. I think I like Morton a tad more, but who knows how many more years he's got. Stroman probably has a few more and hopefully they'll still be good ones. He's never been as dominant as Morton, but he's had more good years, so we'll see what happens. He's also a fun player to root for.

Meneses is either a sim star or a one and done dud and I have no idea which. He's a 31-year-old rookie who had a really impressive 56-game stint last year in Washington after being dropped by Boston as a 29/30-year-old. ZiPS was enthralled and gave him a 2-win projection with a .464 slugging and negative D (hopefully in the OF and not 1B). And since I didn't really have a 1B on the roster, he's a huge help for 2023 and affords me the positional flexibility that I had with JD Davis before I had to deal him to Ian. If he falls apart and his .371 BABIP doesn't return, he's probably a drop. If he continues his success -- being in Washington affords many opportunities -- it's a great story.

The last piece of the deal is Torin, a 17-year-old sparkplug 2B/SS in the Dbacks system who walked twice as much as he struck out in the DSL last year and slugged .434 without a home run. He's gotten some solid press and Arizona seems to like what they see, so he was a nice piece to add to the mix.

[Guardians]

311. Loidel Chapelli to Chicago (AL) for Josiah Gray

Chapelli was a Cuban signee by Chicago last year and had a strong start in the DSL, albeit "old" at 20 years old. He's a smallish 2B, but has a great feel for hitting. He's hitting .500 as of this writing, though I don't expect it to last. I think he could be a fast-moving 2B, though he's likely limited to 2B.

Gray is now 25 and was considered a top prospect when he graduated to the majors and was a key piece of the Trea Turner to LA trade a couple years ago. He has started 44 games in the majors and has been worth -0.7 wins. Fingers crossed he figures it out and can be productive. At this stage, he's SP depth for injuries.

[Guardians]

312. Christian Bethancourt to Tampa Bay for Spencer Schwellenbach and Won-Bin Cho

On name value alone, I think I crushed this deal. Matt was looking for a catcher and since I was carrying four guys who qualify there, I felt Bethancourt was a guy I could stand to lose. He's got a solid power stroke and typically plus D, so he has some value as a decent backup. The downside is a lack of average/obp, but I'd prefer my catcher have power/defense anyway. That said, with Kirk, Grandal, and Varsho, I didn't have to have him.

In return, I was really just looking for prospects. Outside of some bullpen depth, I've mostly been focused on building up the farm. In Schwellenbach, I get a young SP who was a 2nd round pick in 2021. By most accounts, he's a FV 45 who's 6'1, 200 pounds and was drafted high as a pitcher despite a lack of experience there as a two-way player. He's got a big arm, a slider and a changeup and all are developing, so he's a wait-and-see kind of guy. Cho is a teenage outfielder for St. Louis who's currently in CF in A ball. He's shown a nice eye at the plate and ability to take walks along with some nice speed and a touch of power. Scouts believe he has more power to come given his 6'1 200 frame.

I'm pretty happy to add another solid pitching prospect and outfield prospect to the farm in exchange for a guy I really didn't need. On the flip side, Matt fills a need and gives up two guys who aren't exactly top 100 prospects (yet!)

[Guardians]

313. Yasmani Grandal, Jhon Romero, Spencer Schwellenbach to Miami for Jordan Romano, Austin Nola, Abraham Toro

Nils has asked about Grandal before, mainly to serve as a potential DH, while providing some catcher relief, but we haven't talked about him in a while. He asked me again on Tuesday with an offer in this general vicinity. Once he agreed to include Romano I became more interested and Toro -- while nothing special -- provides some needed defensive depth with a little bat for the bench.

Grandal is better than Nola, but neither are amazing hitters or defenders. I think I'm giving a little in the bat, gaining nothing in the field, and both are relatively even players. Like with my last trade of Bethancourt, catcher is a stronger position for me, so a downgrade there shouldn't kill me. Romero is a recent pickup with an ok projection and a questionable future value, but he provides some depth back to Nils in the bullpen. Schwellenbach I just got from Tampa and he looks like a decent flier. His value depends on how he continues to perform as a young pro.

Romano is the big win here, as he adds a legitimate closer to the back of the bullpen to supplement Gallegos and Karinchak, especially with Suarez sidelined. I've been interested in him for a while and while his projection didn't match his last few years of performance, he's been great in 2023, so I expect usefulness for a few years. Toro -- remember him from that random breakout a couple years ago? -- is a tweener backup and AAAA guy, but he's a switch hitter with VG power against righties and ability to play 1st and 3rd well with pretty even splits.

[Guardians]

314. Andrew Abbott, Josiah Gray, Anthony Maldonado, Robert Suarez to San Diego for Taj Bradley, Ken Waldichuk, Miguel Castro, Justin Foscue

It all started with a random message to Z in late May after he posted his trade block. "I'll take Taj Bradley from you." And with that, we were off. I didn't really have high expectations. In my mind, it was similar to when I message JB and say, "I'll take Tatis from you." In this case, Z came back with some ideas of players, which we kicked around a bit over the last couple weeks.

His main request was Abbott, which obviously made sense in this scenario but was very difficult to consider. The lefty was part of a deal last July with the Angels that actually turned out to be the best part of the deal. Close to the deadline, I dealt four players to Ben -- the best of them being Ronny Mauricio -- in a deal for Brandon Lowe, who got hurt and missed the playoffs. In that deal I asked for Abbott, solely based on the fact that Abbott was named to the Futures Game and had a high K rate at the time. Since the beginning of 2023, Abbott has gone absolutely insane -- starting in AA where he struck out 36 in 15 innings, followed by 54 strikeouts in 38 innings, all the way to the majors. All the while, he has limited home runs and kept runs off the board. In two MLB starts, he's throw two 6-inning shutouts. The story is incredible. However, Abbott has walked a few guys and perhaps at some point will run into troubles and have to adjust. I'm rooting hard for him, but in Bradley I actually get two years younger and a guy who has had high strikeout rates and low walk rates at every level. And he's doing the same in the majors this year. I think at the end of the day, Bradley looks like a solid #2 upside, while Abbott falls into the #3 range, with both having the ability to have long careers in a rotation.

So, once we settled on those two main pieces, others came into clarity. Z wanted Gray and Waldichuk in the deal. I liked Waldichuk a few years ago and once he got dealt to Oakland, he was a guy I was following. The 25-year-old lefty has lost velocity and has been relegated to the bullpen in Oakland, which takes a special kind of skillset. I'm hopeful he can work out his mechanics and get back on track as a #3. Gray, also 25, I think is a step ahead of Waldichuk, since he has outperformed him in the majors this year. In both cases, I get better projections this year and in the case of Gray/Waldichuk, likely sacrifice a little for 2024.

Foscue and Maldonado were the third pieces on each side, as Maldonado has been going crazy in AAA with a 15+ K/9 rate and a low ERA. He's a huge reliever with big stuff and if he can keep his control, he will be an IBC closer in the short term. I picked him up because of his projection, which is already usable based on his 2022 stats. Foscue is an infielder (we'll go with that) who crushes the ball. He's 24 and ripping up AAA in the Rangers system with a current .277/.405/.488 slash line with more walks than strikeouts. Defensively, he may ultimately shift to a LF/1B/2B situation, but if he continues to hit like he's hitting, it won't matter. The bat has some real upside.

The last piece I added in to get a little immediate help. Suarez had a heck of a season last year in San Diego and earned a big contract and a nice projection. But elbow soreness in Spring Training has shut him down. He's only 32 and just started to throw bullpens, so I assume he'll be back in about a month. Castro, three years younger, is a little wilder, but is healthier and is having a nice season so far. He's throwing a tick slower, but his barrel rate and exit velocity are down and he's walking fewer batters. If he's made an adjustment, it seems to be working. He and Suarez have a similar projection (110ish ERA+), but I'll be able to use him now.

I get wins this year, which wasn't actually the focus of the deal, but a nice byproduct. I get two starting pitchers under 26 with solid projections who I can use this year. Ultimately, I get what I think is a longer-term win at starting pitcher and reliever with a really nice hitting prospect. If things go Zalaski's way, he gets the hottest pitching prospect in baseball who turns into a stud and an amazing story, dumps a flailing former prospect and gets a closer next year. Time will tell, but I think there are some nice things for both of us.

[Guardians]

315. Jonathan Cannon to Chicago (AL) for Hector Rodriguez

From the moment I drafted Cannon, I knew Jim would want him. It's no secret that Jim loves dealing for White Sox, but I thought he could turn into a #3 SP eventually. In early June, Jim asked about Cannon and offered Rodriguez, who I wasn't too big on. But then he started hitting bombs and became more attractive. In early July, I pinged Jim and we got a deal done. Rodriguez looks like he could be improving his stock, while Cannon made the Futures Game and continues to perform well in A+. I imagine he'll end up bumping up to AA before the end of the year.

[Guardians]

316. Amed Rosario and Pete Hansen to Atlanta for Korey Lee and Denzel Clarke

I'll admit, I thought Rosario was a solid third piece in my big off-season deal with Riley and Betts. It turns out he was a giant bust. Not only did ZIPs kill his defense, but he's underperformed in MLB. I was hoping he would be a solid guy to use, but I haven't even incorporated him into the lineup with any regularity. However, he's only 27 and graduated as a top prospect. Hansen is a soft tossing lefty who has had a good season after being drafted in 22.

I've talked with Degen on and off for months. He mentioned interest in Rosario, so I offered him for some prospects I've been interested in for a while. Lee provides some catching depth who has a cannon, speed, and power without many hitting skills. He looks like he could be a solid catching option in a year or two. Clarke I have loved for a while. He's a beast who crushes the ball and strikes out a tad too much. But I think he'll have a job in two years.

[Guardians]

317. Taj Bradley, Alejandro Kirk, Josh Sborz, Cristofer Torin, Guardians Draft Pick 2 to Miami for Aaron Nola, Mitch Garver, Hector Neris, Dylan Carlson, Marlins Draft Pick 2

Nils started talking about rebuilding within the first week of the season. By June he was in full-fledged trade block posting and tossed out the idea of dealing me Aaron Nola. Nola's K rate is down, HR rate is up and he hasn't been the same as the last two years. However, being down for Aaron Nola is still a top tier pitcher. And, the news today that Shane Bieber has a forearm issue pushed me to get this done. Otherwise, I was on the fence.

The original concept centered around Nola and Garver for Bradley and Kirk. There wasn't a chance I was doing that alone, and things stalled a little. I'm a big believer in Bradley. I gave up a lot to get him because I think he's a #2 SP who's still very young. I was very hesitant to deal him. Garver's projection is fine for this year, but he's an aging catcher who's not been great in real life. And while Kirk has struggled mightily since his breakout 2022, I was not excited about moving him because I gave up so much to get him. It only helped slightly that he's been worse in the sim for me than in real life. The overall idea was that Kirk would be a long-term option at catcher, while Bradley would be a long-term option in the starting rotation. I still believe both can hit those expectations.

As Nils and I continued talking, the pieces in the deal began to take some shape. We discussed other scenarios, but weren't quite getting there. I think we probably came close a couple times to calling off talks. But in the last few days, thinks perked up again when Nils tossed out the idea of including Carlson, whom he has liked for a while and whom I like. The kicker in this deal was getting a lot older at positions where one doesn't want to be old. But my roster construction allows me to be a little creative. With Varsho retaining some catcher eligibility this year, I can shift him to catcher if I have an outfielder to fill the gap. Enter Carlson. He's a switch hitting outfielder for the hapless Cardinals and amazingly is still only 24, playing most of his time in CF this year. While he's struggled this year, I really loved the idea of getting a young MLB starter who I could use immediately. That ended up being the turning point in our talks. The reason I pulled the trigger today was the news that Shane Bieber has forearm tightness. Once I saw that, I felt compelled to make the move.

There are some other significant pieces in the deal. Sborz is 29 and having a great season. He's got a 12+ K/9 ratio and until a couple poor outings, he had an ERA in the low 3s. Neris is four and a half years older, but with a stronger track record. His walks are up, but he's still striking out more than a batter an inning and is currently sporting a 1.43 ERA. Sborz has been really good for me, so I'm hopeful Neris fills that gap.

Torin is a young stud infielder for the Dbacks whose scouting reports are glowing regarding his swing and hard contact. He's only 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds, but he hits, he walks and he doesn't strike out very much (in the Complex). He's very far off, but everything about him is encouraging so far. The icing on the cake was probably a 15-pick bump in the 2nd round, which could end up being even better if Nils slides back after making this and other deals that hurt his 2023 team.

The deal with Atlanta to pick up Lee was pre-insurance for if this ever happened and the addition of Carlson means I don't have to rely on Garver full-time. The Bieber news is potentially devastating for 2023, but if I just picked up his replacement as insurance, the deal could end up working out pretty well. I think there are a lot of variables here. Nils is certainly getting younger and in Bradley he may be getting better as early as 2024. Kirk becomes his long-term answer at catcher, while Torin gives him something to dream on. We both trade enough that no one will end up knowing how this really worked out, probably.

Oh yeah, I reunited the Nola brothers, so that's probably good for something.

[Guardians]

318. Hector Neris, Ken Giles, Guardians Draft Pick 4 to Kansas City for Royals Draft Pick 2, Royals Draft Pick 4

At this point on the roster, I had a glut of relievers and a pretty established core group in the bullpen. Neris is as solid as they come, with a 118 ERA+ projection and a 1.59 ERA to-date in real life. He's also 34, so there's the feeling that another really top-notch projection is coming, but injuries are always lurking with pitchers, especially veterans. But Larry gets a guy he can use in the 8th or 9th inning without pause and Giles, who provides some decent depth. He was a free agent pickup when I noticed he had finally signed (with the Dodgers) and I think 15-20 successful innings in the majors in 2023 could portend well for his future projections. He's been a solid closer pre-injuries.

The return is pretty simple: I'm pretty happy to get another pick in the second round in a deep draft and then a minor upgrade in the 4th inning. Lots of time between now and the draft, but as it stands, I've got some nice picks to bolster the farm.

[Guardians]

319. Miguel Castro to Minnesota for Minnesota Draft Pick 3

Pretty simple deal here, again. I'm loading up on picks rather than middle-innings relievers. Gudim gets a guy who can jump into his bullpen (Castro had been fine for me in low-innings work) and I add to my draft plans.