2012 Draft Recap

[Athletics]

So this is now my second year of partaking in the league and it keeps getting more interesting. As for the 2011 results, once again it was a rebuilding year and to basically come out with the same record was nice, though I am well aware I probably had one of the weakest SOS in the whole league. To continue my rebuild effort I was able to move a few more older guys, though the big deal at the ASB was Jered Weaver to Pittsburgh for what ultimately turned out to be Jameson Taillon, Dylan Bundy, Juan Pablo Oramas and Grant Green (Oramas and Green still have work to do to become stars) which I like greatly for the future. Now onto analyzing the picks.

Dylan Bundy Team: Orioles Pos: RHP Age: 18 Draft Pick: #2

Once again I was drawn to the youth movement and believe he has a better upside that Bauer, though may take an additional three years to get here. I was contemplating Yu when Nick still held the 1st Overall, but JP made a trade to ensure he got his #3 mystery Starter for the next 5-10. So was Bundy a stretch pick, no which I am happy about since last year I went Cowart and he is coming along, but slower than expected. Other potential picks: Trevor Bauer or Gerrit Cole

Pitching Ability: He currently has a fastball sitting in the mid 90s that may increase a little with the added muscle and pitching refinements. His curve-ball is just as potent and offers a slider too, one of these will likely being his out pitch of the future. His change up is another potential plus down the line, but since he is so young it was not like he had to use it much in HS.

Best Case Scenario: He is a born Ace and within 3 years is knocking down the doors in Beantown and the Bronx. He has the full compliment of 4 plus pitches and can rank right up there next to Jim Palmer.

Realistic Scenario: He doesn't end up developing 4 plus pitches but has two that are plus with another two that are average. He still is deemed staff ace but doesn't have the glitz and glamor a Tim Lincecum or Felix Hernandez emit.

Worst Case Scenario: His potential runs dry and while still effective with his pitches, he is relying more on command and therefore projects out as a #2/3 SP type with an above average career.

ETA: 2014 as a SP

Gerrit Cole Team: Pirates Pos: RHP Age: 21 Draft Pick: #5

So I broke my normal mold and went with a guy over 20, but it was worth it and now my rotation of the future has 3 potential aces (not a guarantee, but always a good starting point). With Gerrit Cole, I expect there to be less worries about his overall development since he was a college pitcher and only needs a few pieces of refinement. Obviously he had a great year at UCLA, then hit the summer leagues and his command wavered, but he was able to regain that dominance during the Arizona Fall league. Other potential picks: Bubba Starling

Pitching Ability: He currently has a fastball sitting in the mid to high 90s that may increase a little with pitching refinements. His slider and changeup still need work, but one other is likely to be plus and with two pluses and a solid third working off a 100 mph fastball he should be just fine especially with improved command.

Best Case Scenario: He adds a plus change-up, gets his slider to be a stout above average offering and interchanges all his fastball grips to keep hitters on edge. If all goes right he is another Ace in the making.

Realistic Scenario: He develops the change-up to be plus but the slider stays flat therefore relegating him to rely heavily on two pitches. With the power fastball he is still quite dominant but the Ks drop and therefore he becomes more of a #2 SP.

Worst Case Scenario: His can't keep command of anything but the fastball and pitches his way into a closer role where his tall frame, 100 mph fastball and fringy 2nd offerings can dominate the ninth inning for a good decade or more.

ETA: 2013/2014 as a SP

Trevor Story Team: Rockies Pos: SS Age: 18 Draft Pick: #35

I was quite happy when Trevor Story made it this far down the board. He was a late climber in the MLB draft but has been regarded to be a 5-tool prospect which I will more than happily take in the beginning of the 2nd round. Even if he ends up moving to 3B, I would still be quite happy given the potential. Of course, he is another 18 year old and a lot can happen over his developmental years, but as I continue to rebuild, I have time on my hands. Other potential picks: Spangenberg or Hedges

Hitting Ability: A right handed hitter who has shown good power potential for the SS position, if he had to move to 3B he would only be about average. The key to Story is his contact rate and if it remains high he should be very useful at the position. Still will take time to develop being young, but has a smooth swing that should refine nicely.

Defensive Ability: The kid is an athlete and has both the build and footwork to make it as a SS without having to move off the position. He also has plenty of arm so if the Rockies decide to move him to 3B to play side by side with the defensive metrics will grow even though his offensive comparable stats take a hit.

Best Case Scenario: He is probably not going to be another Tulo, but I would be more than happy to take a Tulo-light with plus contact skills manning the left side of the infield with great range.

Realistic Scenario: Hard to call at this time. A lot seems to depend on where other prospects ahead of him land before he reaches the majors. If Tulo is still entrenched at SS and Arenado doesn't pan out at 3B, he is likely to play 3B, allowing his defensive skills to play up even if his comparative offensive skills play down. Right now I think it would be a push in terms of overall WAR if he had to move from SS to 3B.

Worst Case Scenario: The real problem happens if he is moved to LF/RF or 2B and his power doesn't improve. He would ultimately not be gaining anything from his defensive value and would be below average offensively when compared to other COFers.

ETA: 2015 as SS/3B

Kevin Comer Team: Blue Jays Pos: RHP Age: 18 Draft Pick: #65

This was the point in the draft where things got interesting since I was down to selecting high risk high school guys or college guys that wouldn't necessarily provide long term value. Therefore, I went to my default MO and selected a youthful RHP which was headed to Vandy before the Blue Jays swept in and bought out with the money they saved from Beede. In drafting Kevin Comer, I am probably expecting a similar path that Aaron Sanchez will take. The Korean has a good pitcher's frame that obviously has some room to project further, but even without that he still has a solid fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s with two potential above average secondary offerings to go with it. Random fact: He can dunk the ball. Other potential picks: Maples, Lopez, Crick and Anderson (unfortunately those were all picked prior)

Pitching Ability: He currently has a fastball sitting in the low to mid 90s that may increase as he fills out. His curveball and changeup still need work, but there is definitely enough to build around to provide him 3 solid pitches. He also has a smooth yet deceptive motion which allows him to miss plenty of bats.

Best Case Scenario: His fastball continues to run around the mid 90s, his spike curveball can be properly commanded and his deceptive motion allows him to exploit batters with his change up. If all goes right, he is probably a solid #2.

Realistic Scenario: He develops the change-up to be plus but the spike curveball is easily read and doesn't work enough to be an out pitch He would still likely rack up the Ks, but number of pitches would begin to wear on him as he puts too many people on base, therefore likely ending up as #3/4 SP.

Worst Case Scenario: He loses some heat on the fastball and the command isn't up to par for the secondary offerings. He runs up his pitch counts and is switched to a late inning reliever where he can focus on throwing hard in short spurts and allowing his wildness to keep hitters off balance.

ETA: 2015 as a SP

Cameron Gallagher Team: Royals Pos: C Age: 18 Draft Pick: #94

By this point in the draft I was looking for solid upside picks and since I am a sucker for high school kids, why not go after a sweet swinging catcher. Obviously I am hoping he can hold the position and maintain the good swing, but I won't worry too much if he ends up at 1B. With four to five years of development, there are alot of things that could happen, especially in KC where position players move all around. Other potential picks: Williams Jerez

Hitting Ability: A right handed hitter who has shown good power potential and would be a beast if he can stay at catcher. If he had to move it would likely be to 1B since he is a slow runner, but the power and hit potential could easily sustain him there. Obviously I am looking at a half decade project, but I got time for a good developing team.

Defensive Ability: The kid is already big to be squatting behind the plate, having the size of Joe Mauer which is definitely not ideal for a catcher. He also has plenty of arm, which would be good to pair up with developing receiving skills (has only been catching for 2 years). If he can be average, the offense at the position will be perfect.

Best Case Scenario: Well in a tribute to Gary Carter, a good power hitting catcher would be nice to see, however, if he bulks up than a high average and high power 1B would work for me too.

Realistic Scenario: Hard to call at this time. A lot seems to depends on if he can stay at C over the the developmental period or if they move him to a lesser defensive position. I probably think he can be an average 1B with good power.

Worst Case Scenario: The real problem happens if he is moved 1B and can't hit for power or average. He is too slow to really be ay sort of replacement, so outside o failure, this is probably the worst spot.

ETA: 2016 as C, 2015 as 1B

Kyle Smith Team: Royals Pos: RHP Age: 18 Draft Pick: #95

And with successive picks I decided to go with his teammate Kyle Smith. He has a few nice pitches that he is working on and in reality it was a tossup between Smith and Brickhouse. I think that while Brickhouse may have the better one pitch, he is likely destined for the bullpen before Smith based upon the lack of command and feel for a third or fourth offering. I probably put him on par with Peter Tago at this point, a late bloomer but had decent helium, just needs to bring it all together to be a 3/4 SP. Other potential picks: Brickhouse (Garrett and Kukuk both picked prior)

Pitching Ability: His fastball isn't huge, but he has the makings of above average to plus curveballs and changeups. His command has been solid, so if he can develop those two secondary pitches to pair with a well spotted fastball surving in the middle of the rototation is clearly possible.

Best Case Scenario: His fastball gains a few ticks to run around the mid 90s, his spike curveball can be properly commanded and he can keep everyone else off balance with his changeup. If all goes right, he is probably a solid #3.

Realistic Scenario: He develops the change-up to be plus but the spike curveball can't be spotted consistently to fool batters. Therefore, he gets pitch heavy in outings and can't go as deep into games. Based upon the skillset, I could see a #4 SP.

Worst Case Scenario: The fastball stays in the upper 80s and the development of the second pitches never comes about, leaving to to linger in long relief roles where games don't necessarily matter.

ETA: 2015 as a SP

[Athletics]

2013 Update:

Dylan Bundy: So pretty much did what was expected and beyond...give him another year...maybe 1 1/2 before Camden yards starts plastering his name all over the park as they get their Ace.

Gerrit Cole: Showed off the 100 mph fastball, still needs to refine some of the secondary stuff, but number 1 potential is still there and likely to be the Ace of the Pirate staff in the next couple of years.

Trevor Story: Strikeout rate was a little high and defense was average, but he is young and has time to adjust, still not sure which position he ultimately ends up at given Tulo sitting at SS in the Majors.

Kevin Comer: Got moved from Toronto to Houston, should have plenty of time to move up in the system there, but doesn't have a dominant pitch, so his ceiling may be falling to that of a middle to back-end starter.

Kyle Smith: Definitely put up some impressive numbers for a short guy, but held his own and looks like if he can keep up the development would be a middle of the rotation guy.

Cameron Gallagher: Had a good showing, his bat has power, needs to boost the average, really just a matter of if the defense behind the plate holds up, if so, likely to be an average starting catcher in the majors some day.

[Athletics]

2014 Update:

Dylan Bundy: TJ...Still has Ace potential, will be back by mid year so we shall see where he is then.

Gerrit Cole: Evolved into a Top of the Rotation starter, once he refines those secondary pitches a little more he should be golden from here on in barring any injuries.

Trevor Story: The good was the defense, not as great as it could have been, the bad was the bat that didn't improve showing he still has some holes, but least he was hitting with men on base, still young and no rush with Tulo in the bigs.

Kevin Comer: Cut

Kyle Smith: Showed off some good stuff, then moved to Houston and got lit up in the Cal league, hopefully AA stadiums are a little nicer to the kid.

Cameron Gallagher: He got injured and was meh for the season, since he is a catcher I am expecting atleast 4 years before I see him anyway.

[Athletics]

2015 Update:

Dylan Bundy: He is back...and then had a lat strain, should be good to go next year and would not be surprised to see him either in the rotation to start the year or break through by June.

Gerrit Cole: Numbers not as fancy, but still young and K rate went up, looks the part of a #2 and could atleast pretend to be an Ace moving forward.

Trevor Story: If Tulo doesn't get traded, Story needs a new home, likely still another year away since it takes him about a year to get comfortable with a new league, but dabbling at 2nd and 3rd in the AFL so very least he can be an all around MI Utility guy.

Kyle Smith: Doesn't have top notch stuff, but keeps prodding along with solid numbers, likely to be a back end of the rotation starter, but probably will make the show within another year.

Cameron Gallagher: Looks to be solid behind the plate, slow moving catcher that still needs more work with the bat, not sure if he will ever fully make it, but with a catcher you basically need to give them an extra year or two (unless they are Buster Posey).

[Athletics]

2016 Update:

Dylan Bundy: Ugh I hate my life...can't catch a break...and so on, check back in a year when I am gray haired over him.

Gerrit Cole: An Ace...I am happy here, no need to continue posting, he is my first draft success so far.

Trevor Story: Year by year he has slowly come along, this year he will likely see time in the majors at 2B or SS given Reyes being a potential criminal and DJ being just a good defender.

Kyle Smith: TJ...yup, who knew I would own one of those guys, so he got cut.

Cameron Gallagher: Cut as he didn't progress fast enough to keep around.