2011 Draft Recap
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2011 7:21 pm
So after my first year partaking in the league I have found it quite enjoyable. As for the 2010 results, I am not too worried about the outcome and the final record given that I did not construct that team and eventually was working to get it on the younger side of 30. That is something I was able to achieve and did it at a reasonable value, though obviously some of my movement towards obtaining higher draft picks would have been better if I was drafting from the 2011 MLB class rather than the 2010 class.
Now onto my preliminary evaluation of my 8 (formerly 6) draft picks:
Kaleb Cowart Team: Angels Pos: 3B Age: 18 Draft Pick: #6
Alright, now most of you are going to say this was an overdraft and I will probably agree with you given that Nick Castellanos was still on the board at the time of this pick. However, I believe that Cowart has the potential to be just as good as Castellanos (except maybe the pure power department). Cowart is a switch hitter and while his initial showing was not the greatest, he was not able to transition immediately from high school to the pros so I am not buying into the small sample size.
Hitting Ability: As a switch hitter, he has shown good power from both sides of the plate, though his swing has been a little long through the zone which obviously leaves him open to swinging at bad pitches, he has the time and youth to correct this fault.
Defensive Ability: The kid is an athlete and has both the build and footwork to make it as a 3B without having to move off the position. Obviously being a former pitcher the arm strength will not be the issue but more likely his glove work will need to catch up.
Best Case Scenario: As some comps have already been suggested, if he puts everything together he could top out as Chipper Jones, a 3B switch hitter from Georgia, I obviously would not expect such high levels right out of high school but if time passes and the right progress is being made, then getting close would be nice.
Realistic Scenario: Hard to call at this time. If he hits well enough then he is likely to end up as a starting 3B with enough ability to be above average. If the high school batting average does not transition to the minor leagues, then by 2012 he could be right back on the mound and working his way towards being a #2/3 starter in the major leagues.
Worst Case Scenario: His hitting fails and the time lost on the mound drops him into a bottom tier pitcher that is used for eating up innings while Tyler Chatwood, Garrett Richard and Fabio Mesa Martinez take the initiative. I hope it never gets to this point
ETA: 2014 as 3B or RHP
Matthew Lipka Team: Braves Pos: SS/CF Age: 18 Draft Pick: #21
Now some of you are probably thinking I am a little loony at this point, not only did I reach to get an Angel 3B but with two international prospects and another HS elite arm still on the board I go out and get a scrappy speedster that just bleeds the game. I will have to admit, I pondered waiting, but I decided with all the arms I liked on the board versus the hitters this wasn’t going to hurt as much as if I fail on my Cowart pick.
Hitting Ability: The kid can put the ball in play, and given his speed if he does it more then his average should be high. While his power is just average, the position he will be playing at it should be more than sufficient if he averages 15 HRs a year, Ideally he will take on the role as a lead off hitter and should be more focused on getting on base so he can use that amazing speed.
Defensive Ability: His has the speed and range to play at shortstop, but the glove is currently not cooperating with him given his lack of playing time at the position in high school. If the Braves do give him a chance to work on the glove, he could stick, but they may move him directly to CF given his great range and other prospects they already have in the system, either way, the move will not hurt what he needs to do offensively.
Best Case Scenario: Excluding the possibility of sticking at SS, the kid becomes a gold glove CF that hits enough to put up 20/40 numbers with an above batting average.
Realistic Scenario: He never develops enough power but his average is good and his speed and defense carry him to the majors to be a starting CF for years to come, hopefully better than Peter Bourjos (though maybe not as defensively apt).
Worst Case Scenario: He ends up at 2B with no power and the average is lacking meaning he can’t take full use of his speed on the base paths. If this happens…waste of another 1st round pick.
ETA: 2015 as SS, 2014 as a CF/2B
Aaron Sanchez Team: Blue Jays Pos: RHP Age: 18 Draft Pick: #33
Oh my, my first guy that wouldn’t be considered a reach. Yes, I know I finally had to do it at some point, but as you can all see, I still have quite the affinity towards the HS players. With Aaron Sanchez though, I expect good things given his repertoire and remaining projection. He too is another athletic type that should be able to build on what he already has and just make himself better, though he will have plenty of competition coming up through the Blue Jay ranks. I see nothing wrong with competition among teammates as it is just going to bring about better players in the end as they can learn from one another.
Pitching Ability: He currently has a fastball sitting in the low to mid 90s that may increase a little with the added muscle and pitching refinements. His curve-ball is just as potent and will likely be his out pitch of the future. His change up he has not had to use up to this point, but if he can gain one and have it be an average offering, then remaining a starter in the majors is very likely.
Best Case Scenario: He adds an above average change-up and possibly a fourth pitch to his arsenal and can be a top of the rotation starter. Being young he has the time to work and is in a good pitching development system, which is never a bad thing.
Realistic Scenario: He finds the change-up but not much more beyond that and ends up relying on his fastball and curve-ball which tops him out as a #3 starter or drives him to the bullpen where the two plus offerings allow him to go after the closer’s job.
Worst Case Scenario: His projectable body falls flat and he is left to rely completely on his fastball and curve-ball but is not dominant enough to close out games meaning his is relegated to a middle reliever or spot starter.
ETA: 2014 as a SP, 2013 as a RP
Drew Vettleson Team: Rays Pos: RF Age: 18 Draft Pick: #43
After this pick, most of you are thinking “yeah, Stephen would take him too” since first he took the starting pitcher that wants to be a switch hitting 3B and follows that up with a switch pitcher that wants to be a hitter. Well I think this transition is a much better one considering the scouts really did come to see his bat and raved about the smooth swing. Obviously there are a few tweaks that Drew will need to make to fully utilize the power and hitting ability to all fields but the corrections should be obtainable.
Hitting Ability: Coming out of the same high school as Josh Sale, the two made up a potent duo with both power and above average contact. However, spending half his time having to work on pitching adequately from both sides of the mound has probably limited some of his development as a hitter. He has shown raw power and with a good eye should be able to turn that ability into a quality starting right fielder.
Defensive Ability: Being a former pitcher he has the arm strength and accuracy to gun down anyone trying to run on him, however he will have to make sure he can get to the ball first. His lack of speed and range may be an issue but if he can avoid looking silly out in the field, then having to move to a different position should not be considered.
Best Case Scenario: He refines the contact ability and develops all the raw power he currently has and translates everything into offensive minded RF with a great arm ala Vladimir Guerrero in his younger years but with a higher average.
Realistic Scenario: He refines the contact ability but never develops quite as much raw power to ensure the average stays high and his defense is substandard and therefore he turns into Andre Ethier who holds down the starting spot and may show signs of all-star but never come through on it.
Worst Case: His hitting and power develop to above average but his defense is rather poor and he becomes like an old man Vlad or Pat Burrell and is lifted in the latter innings or is reduced to a fourth OF/pinch hitter type role ala Matt Stairs.
ETA: 2014 as a RF
Peter Tago Team: Rockies Pos: RHP Age: 18 Draft Pick: #48
So I am now five for five in taking high school kids and placing all my emphasis on the mid to long-term future of my team rather than finding a short term fix. Along with Aaron Sanchez, Peter has another projectable body with room to add muscle and improve upon his pitches. He was scouted throughout most of the last year and while he did have a little late helium he was considered to be a tail end first round to second round pick over the entire year.
Pitching Ability: He has a smooth delivery that should keep his arm healthy and allow him to continually throw deep into games. Along with the mid 90s fastball that has movement, he has an above average curve-ball and an average change-up, both of which could improve with his overall development and provide him with 3 pitches that can keep all hitters off balance and make him suitable starter in the majors.
Best Case Scenario: He gains enough strength to be knocking on triple digits with his fastball, the curve-ball evolves into a truly plus pitch and the change up is above average giving him 3 pitches he can throw at any time. Ideally he would be the 1.a compliment to Ubaldo Jimenez in Colorado.
Realistic Scenario: He maintains the mid 90s fastball, the curve-ball development is achieved but the change up never develops enough and he becomes a workhorse #3 starter. Unless there is something major that happens in Colorado, a move to the pen is unlikely since they have more than enough power pitchers.
Worst Case Scenario: The fastball sticks in the mid 90s, but neither the curve-ball nor the change-up develop which means he will end up in the pen with his ability to keep the ball low in the zone with late movement. Ideally he still shows enough to be an 8th/9th inning type of guy under this scenario but competition will be greater or he ends up as a bottom of the rotation starter.
ETA: 2014 as a SP, 2013 as a RP
Perci Garner Team: Phillies Pos: RHP Age: 21 Draft Pick: #63
My last pick of the draft, bet all of you were guessing I was going to go 6 for 6 on HS guys…well I didn’t, I went with a Draft eligible sophomore. Perci is another two-sport athlete like Matt Lipka. He made it to Ball State on a football scholarship, but since the coach never played him, he transitioned away from football and by 2009 was on the mound pitching. He is a true power type pitcher given his quarterback background in football and with the right refinements should be malleable on the mound.
Pitching Ability: You can’t teach arm strength, and this kid has it. By his 2010 season he was hovering around the mid 90s and if he had been in a bullpen roll probably could have ramped it a few more miles. The current issue with Garner is that his multi-sport athletic career has led him to be quite raw in comparison to most pitchers his age. Currently he sits with an above average fastball that could go plus and a great curve-ball which could follow in the same footsteps. The Phillies may need him to drop one or two of the other pitches he had been using (slider and change-up) for a short time to make sure he can refine his command before reintroducing them later on.
Best Case Scenario: He turns into a #2 starter with two plus pitches and another two offerings to keep all batters off balance with the speed and movement.
Realistic Scenario: He turns into a #3 SP because the command never fully refines and only one of the other pitches develops into an average offering or a Closer because the command issues remain, the third offering does not show up, but the fastball and curve-ball remain plus and he can use them effectively in short stints.
Worst Case Scenario: Relief pitcher with two plus pitches that can’t be trusted in closing situations because he never knows where they are going to end up…whether it be in the catchers glove or over the fence.
ETA: 2014/2015 as a SP, 2013 as a RP
Evan Rutckyj Team: Yankees Pos: LHP Age: 19 Draft Pick: #156
Okay, so I ended up taking two more guys in the draft…big deal, I need project guys like this to possibly make my other guys look better. So what can one say about Evan except that he is a project. He has the prototypical frame to build upon and the Yankees threw money at him in one of the middle rounds of the draft..
Pitching Ability: Who knows…the kid was playing hockey just a couple of years ago and he has yet to put any significant mileage on that arm. But he is a lefty, he is big bodied, he throws hard enough even though his command is sketchy and he doesn’t have much else to offer…but I would be a dollar he could be the next CC in pinstripes.
Best Case Scenario: So maybe that last comment was a little overblown, but hey expecting him to be a #2/#3 isn’t completely out of the realm of possibilities if he can improve upon the three pitches they have him throwing. I know I wouldn’t want to come across a LHP with a mid 90s fastball, a solid slider and a decent changeup.
Realistic Scenario: He turns into a #3 SP because projects take time and while he may have been a bulldog on the ice and in the ring, that doesn’t always translate when you are starting to learn the game so late. Though headstrong kids with untainted arms are good to work with since they are fully developed and don’t have any bad habits.
Worst Case Scenario: LOOGY…hate to say it, but if the fastball is all he can manage and it sits in the 90s then as a manager I wouldn’t know where else to put him…if he is lucky enough to have a second offering and can learn to be deceptive maybe he could end up as a true 7th/8th inning type..
ETA: 2016 as a SP
Gabe Encinas Team: Yankees Pos: RHP Age: 18 Draft Pick: #186
Now here is officially my last pick of the draft. So what can one say about Gabe except that he came on strong with a great changeup but that he still needs additional work on the rest of the secondary pitches and hopeful adds a few ticks to the fastball.
Pitching Ability: He is the opposite of Garner as he appears to have very good command of the pitches he throws, he just need to improve the overall speed and action of the pitches. Hopefully he can build upon his frame as it is already quite durable and his stuff can be maintained deep into his starts. He probably will have three pitches when it is all said and done but as for most starters that is more than enough to throw 6-7 on a given night.
Best Case Scenario: He turns into a #2 starter with two plus pitches (fastball and change up and can offer a third in some sort of breaking ball.
Realistic Scenario: He turns into a #3 SP because the command allows him to avoid the heart of the plate and no hitter is ever on balance with the movement and pitch sequence but the fastball never gets up past 94 to give him the ideal drop off between pitch speeds.
Worst Case Scenario: #5 starter (or long arm from the pen) that has a decent fastball, a plus changeup but no third offering and he ends up being an inning eater type without much potential.
ETA: 2015/2016 as a SP
Now onto my preliminary evaluation of my 8 (formerly 6) draft picks:
Kaleb Cowart Team: Angels Pos: 3B Age: 18 Draft Pick: #6
Alright, now most of you are going to say this was an overdraft and I will probably agree with you given that Nick Castellanos was still on the board at the time of this pick. However, I believe that Cowart has the potential to be just as good as Castellanos (except maybe the pure power department). Cowart is a switch hitter and while his initial showing was not the greatest, he was not able to transition immediately from high school to the pros so I am not buying into the small sample size.
Hitting Ability: As a switch hitter, he has shown good power from both sides of the plate, though his swing has been a little long through the zone which obviously leaves him open to swinging at bad pitches, he has the time and youth to correct this fault.
Defensive Ability: The kid is an athlete and has both the build and footwork to make it as a 3B without having to move off the position. Obviously being a former pitcher the arm strength will not be the issue but more likely his glove work will need to catch up.
Best Case Scenario: As some comps have already been suggested, if he puts everything together he could top out as Chipper Jones, a 3B switch hitter from Georgia, I obviously would not expect such high levels right out of high school but if time passes and the right progress is being made, then getting close would be nice.
Realistic Scenario: Hard to call at this time. If he hits well enough then he is likely to end up as a starting 3B with enough ability to be above average. If the high school batting average does not transition to the minor leagues, then by 2012 he could be right back on the mound and working his way towards being a #2/3 starter in the major leagues.
Worst Case Scenario: His hitting fails and the time lost on the mound drops him into a bottom tier pitcher that is used for eating up innings while Tyler Chatwood, Garrett Richard and Fabio Mesa Martinez take the initiative. I hope it never gets to this point
ETA: 2014 as 3B or RHP
Matthew Lipka Team: Braves Pos: SS/CF Age: 18 Draft Pick: #21
Now some of you are probably thinking I am a little loony at this point, not only did I reach to get an Angel 3B but with two international prospects and another HS elite arm still on the board I go out and get a scrappy speedster that just bleeds the game. I will have to admit, I pondered waiting, but I decided with all the arms I liked on the board versus the hitters this wasn’t going to hurt as much as if I fail on my Cowart pick.
Hitting Ability: The kid can put the ball in play, and given his speed if he does it more then his average should be high. While his power is just average, the position he will be playing at it should be more than sufficient if he averages 15 HRs a year, Ideally he will take on the role as a lead off hitter and should be more focused on getting on base so he can use that amazing speed.
Defensive Ability: His has the speed and range to play at shortstop, but the glove is currently not cooperating with him given his lack of playing time at the position in high school. If the Braves do give him a chance to work on the glove, he could stick, but they may move him directly to CF given his great range and other prospects they already have in the system, either way, the move will not hurt what he needs to do offensively.
Best Case Scenario: Excluding the possibility of sticking at SS, the kid becomes a gold glove CF that hits enough to put up 20/40 numbers with an above batting average.
Realistic Scenario: He never develops enough power but his average is good and his speed and defense carry him to the majors to be a starting CF for years to come, hopefully better than Peter Bourjos (though maybe not as defensively apt).
Worst Case Scenario: He ends up at 2B with no power and the average is lacking meaning he can’t take full use of his speed on the base paths. If this happens…waste of another 1st round pick.
ETA: 2015 as SS, 2014 as a CF/2B
Aaron Sanchez Team: Blue Jays Pos: RHP Age: 18 Draft Pick: #33
Oh my, my first guy that wouldn’t be considered a reach. Yes, I know I finally had to do it at some point, but as you can all see, I still have quite the affinity towards the HS players. With Aaron Sanchez though, I expect good things given his repertoire and remaining projection. He too is another athletic type that should be able to build on what he already has and just make himself better, though he will have plenty of competition coming up through the Blue Jay ranks. I see nothing wrong with competition among teammates as it is just going to bring about better players in the end as they can learn from one another.
Pitching Ability: He currently has a fastball sitting in the low to mid 90s that may increase a little with the added muscle and pitching refinements. His curve-ball is just as potent and will likely be his out pitch of the future. His change up he has not had to use up to this point, but if he can gain one and have it be an average offering, then remaining a starter in the majors is very likely.
Best Case Scenario: He adds an above average change-up and possibly a fourth pitch to his arsenal and can be a top of the rotation starter. Being young he has the time to work and is in a good pitching development system, which is never a bad thing.
Realistic Scenario: He finds the change-up but not much more beyond that and ends up relying on his fastball and curve-ball which tops him out as a #3 starter or drives him to the bullpen where the two plus offerings allow him to go after the closer’s job.
Worst Case Scenario: His projectable body falls flat and he is left to rely completely on his fastball and curve-ball but is not dominant enough to close out games meaning his is relegated to a middle reliever or spot starter.
ETA: 2014 as a SP, 2013 as a RP
Drew Vettleson Team: Rays Pos: RF Age: 18 Draft Pick: #43
After this pick, most of you are thinking “yeah, Stephen would take him too” since first he took the starting pitcher that wants to be a switch hitting 3B and follows that up with a switch pitcher that wants to be a hitter. Well I think this transition is a much better one considering the scouts really did come to see his bat and raved about the smooth swing. Obviously there are a few tweaks that Drew will need to make to fully utilize the power and hitting ability to all fields but the corrections should be obtainable.
Hitting Ability: Coming out of the same high school as Josh Sale, the two made up a potent duo with both power and above average contact. However, spending half his time having to work on pitching adequately from both sides of the mound has probably limited some of his development as a hitter. He has shown raw power and with a good eye should be able to turn that ability into a quality starting right fielder.
Defensive Ability: Being a former pitcher he has the arm strength and accuracy to gun down anyone trying to run on him, however he will have to make sure he can get to the ball first. His lack of speed and range may be an issue but if he can avoid looking silly out in the field, then having to move to a different position should not be considered.
Best Case Scenario: He refines the contact ability and develops all the raw power he currently has and translates everything into offensive minded RF with a great arm ala Vladimir Guerrero in his younger years but with a higher average.
Realistic Scenario: He refines the contact ability but never develops quite as much raw power to ensure the average stays high and his defense is substandard and therefore he turns into Andre Ethier who holds down the starting spot and may show signs of all-star but never come through on it.
Worst Case: His hitting and power develop to above average but his defense is rather poor and he becomes like an old man Vlad or Pat Burrell and is lifted in the latter innings or is reduced to a fourth OF/pinch hitter type role ala Matt Stairs.
ETA: 2014 as a RF
Peter Tago Team: Rockies Pos: RHP Age: 18 Draft Pick: #48
So I am now five for five in taking high school kids and placing all my emphasis on the mid to long-term future of my team rather than finding a short term fix. Along with Aaron Sanchez, Peter has another projectable body with room to add muscle and improve upon his pitches. He was scouted throughout most of the last year and while he did have a little late helium he was considered to be a tail end first round to second round pick over the entire year.
Pitching Ability: He has a smooth delivery that should keep his arm healthy and allow him to continually throw deep into games. Along with the mid 90s fastball that has movement, he has an above average curve-ball and an average change-up, both of which could improve with his overall development and provide him with 3 pitches that can keep all hitters off balance and make him suitable starter in the majors.
Best Case Scenario: He gains enough strength to be knocking on triple digits with his fastball, the curve-ball evolves into a truly plus pitch and the change up is above average giving him 3 pitches he can throw at any time. Ideally he would be the 1.a compliment to Ubaldo Jimenez in Colorado.
Realistic Scenario: He maintains the mid 90s fastball, the curve-ball development is achieved but the change up never develops enough and he becomes a workhorse #3 starter. Unless there is something major that happens in Colorado, a move to the pen is unlikely since they have more than enough power pitchers.
Worst Case Scenario: The fastball sticks in the mid 90s, but neither the curve-ball nor the change-up develop which means he will end up in the pen with his ability to keep the ball low in the zone with late movement. Ideally he still shows enough to be an 8th/9th inning type of guy under this scenario but competition will be greater or he ends up as a bottom of the rotation starter.
ETA: 2014 as a SP, 2013 as a RP
Perci Garner Team: Phillies Pos: RHP Age: 21 Draft Pick: #63
My last pick of the draft, bet all of you were guessing I was going to go 6 for 6 on HS guys…well I didn’t, I went with a Draft eligible sophomore. Perci is another two-sport athlete like Matt Lipka. He made it to Ball State on a football scholarship, but since the coach never played him, he transitioned away from football and by 2009 was on the mound pitching. He is a true power type pitcher given his quarterback background in football and with the right refinements should be malleable on the mound.
Pitching Ability: You can’t teach arm strength, and this kid has it. By his 2010 season he was hovering around the mid 90s and if he had been in a bullpen roll probably could have ramped it a few more miles. The current issue with Garner is that his multi-sport athletic career has led him to be quite raw in comparison to most pitchers his age. Currently he sits with an above average fastball that could go plus and a great curve-ball which could follow in the same footsteps. The Phillies may need him to drop one or two of the other pitches he had been using (slider and change-up) for a short time to make sure he can refine his command before reintroducing them later on.
Best Case Scenario: He turns into a #2 starter with two plus pitches and another two offerings to keep all batters off balance with the speed and movement.
Realistic Scenario: He turns into a #3 SP because the command never fully refines and only one of the other pitches develops into an average offering or a Closer because the command issues remain, the third offering does not show up, but the fastball and curve-ball remain plus and he can use them effectively in short stints.
Worst Case Scenario: Relief pitcher with two plus pitches that can’t be trusted in closing situations because he never knows where they are going to end up…whether it be in the catchers glove or over the fence.
ETA: 2014/2015 as a SP, 2013 as a RP
Evan Rutckyj Team: Yankees Pos: LHP Age: 19 Draft Pick: #156
Okay, so I ended up taking two more guys in the draft…big deal, I need project guys like this to possibly make my other guys look better. So what can one say about Evan except that he is a project. He has the prototypical frame to build upon and the Yankees threw money at him in one of the middle rounds of the draft..
Pitching Ability: Who knows…the kid was playing hockey just a couple of years ago and he has yet to put any significant mileage on that arm. But he is a lefty, he is big bodied, he throws hard enough even though his command is sketchy and he doesn’t have much else to offer…but I would be a dollar he could be the next CC in pinstripes.
Best Case Scenario: So maybe that last comment was a little overblown, but hey expecting him to be a #2/#3 isn’t completely out of the realm of possibilities if he can improve upon the three pitches they have him throwing. I know I wouldn’t want to come across a LHP with a mid 90s fastball, a solid slider and a decent changeup.
Realistic Scenario: He turns into a #3 SP because projects take time and while he may have been a bulldog on the ice and in the ring, that doesn’t always translate when you are starting to learn the game so late. Though headstrong kids with untainted arms are good to work with since they are fully developed and don’t have any bad habits.
Worst Case Scenario: LOOGY…hate to say it, but if the fastball is all he can manage and it sits in the 90s then as a manager I wouldn’t know where else to put him…if he is lucky enough to have a second offering and can learn to be deceptive maybe he could end up as a true 7th/8th inning type..
ETA: 2016 as a SP
Gabe Encinas Team: Yankees Pos: RHP Age: 18 Draft Pick: #186
Now here is officially my last pick of the draft. So what can one say about Gabe except that he came on strong with a great changeup but that he still needs additional work on the rest of the secondary pitches and hopeful adds a few ticks to the fastball.
Pitching Ability: He is the opposite of Garner as he appears to have very good command of the pitches he throws, he just need to improve the overall speed and action of the pitches. Hopefully he can build upon his frame as it is already quite durable and his stuff can be maintained deep into his starts. He probably will have three pitches when it is all said and done but as for most starters that is more than enough to throw 6-7 on a given night.
Best Case Scenario: He turns into a #2 starter with two plus pitches (fastball and change up and can offer a third in some sort of breaking ball.
Realistic Scenario: He turns into a #3 SP because the command allows him to avoid the heart of the plate and no hitter is ever on balance with the movement and pitch sequence but the fastball never gets up past 94 to give him the ideal drop off between pitch speeds.
Worst Case Scenario: #5 starter (or long arm from the pen) that has a decent fastball, a plus changeup but no third offering and he ends up being an inning eater type without much potential.
ETA: 2015/2016 as a SP