IBC

With 1 ALE title and 5 WC appearances in the last 7 years the Blue Jays are the bar every team with designs on the AL wildcard will need to clear. Here is the way I see big daddy Bishop's team shaking out right now(subject to change):

Line-up
C Ruiz 104 OPS+
1B Pena 122 OPS+
2B Johnson 113 OPS+
3B Branyan 119 OPS+
SS Escobar 95 OPS+
LF Abreu 107 OPS+
CF Granderson 115 OPS+
RF Fukudome 100 OPS+
DH Cust 112 OPS+

Jays Ave - 109.67 OPS+

Rotation
SP Lee 141 ERA+
SP Duchscherer 110 ERA+
SP Capuano 97 ERA+
SP Tim Wakefield 94 ERA+
SP Minor 93 ERA+
--------------------------------
SP Sonnanstine 90 ERA+
SP Chen 89 ERA+

League Ave - 96 ERA+
Jays 5 Ave - 107.0 ERA+

Bullpen
RP Wilson 146 ERA+
RP Uehara 128 ERA+
RP Thornton 152 ERA+
RP Saito 131 ERA+
RP Contreras 120?
RP Herrera 108 ERA+

League Ave - 108 ERA+
Jays Ave - 130.83 ERA+

As usual the line-up is strong and the pen is elite. The rotation looks top heavy though and relying on Duch and Capuano to log big innings could be risky. An injury there would make the rotation look very ordinary. This team won 93 games last year and had 913 RS and 775 RA. Their PT indicated 94 wins so they didn't get lucky to post this total. 95 Wins seems like the number to shoot for in the WC race in 2011.

Here are the Red Sox so far for comparison.

Lineup
C Sanchez 99 OPS+
1B Lee 107 OPS+
2B Aybar 93 OPS+
3B Alvarez 116 OPS+
SS Rodriguez 91 OPS+
LF Werth 122 OPS+
CF Rasmus 110 OPS+
RF Bruce 123 OPS+
DH Ibanez 112 OPS+

* = 2010 Numbers
Sox Ave - 108.55 OPS+

Rotation
SP Price 121 ERA+
SP Garcia 113 ERA+
SP Beachy 104 ERA+
SP Cahill 102 ERA+
SP Arroyo 100 ERA+
------------------------
SP Gaudin 96 ERA+
SP Beltre 92 ERA+
SP De La Rosa 92 ERA+

League Ave - 96 ERA+
Sox 5 Ave - 108.0 ERA+

Bullpen
RP Belisle 126 ERA+
RP Tateyama 128 ERA+
RP Fuentes 124 ERA+
RP Reynolds 118 ERA+
RP Peralta 114 ERA+
RP Hanrahan 113 ERA+

League Ave - 108 ERA+
Red Sox Ave - 120.2 ERA+

I don't expect Ibanez to be 125, but a 17 point drop would still only drop the team average to 108. The lineup is good, the rotation is balanced but not yet elite, and the BP should be very good. I would like to possibly upgrade at SS.

If you feel your team could also be in the running for the wildcard, please feel free to post it here and maybe we'll do a poll sometime around ST.

I think my White Sox have a shot at the wildcard and will post more when additional ZipS are out. Here is the team so far: viewtopic.php?t=3248

Solid defense, decent line-up, strong SP ... biggest weakness is the BP - particularly if Howell starts the season on the DL.

You boys in the AL East are scaring me... heh

I see two guys that want to add RP. Chad Qualls would look nice in either uniform.

Phillies wrote:I see two guys that want to add RP. Chad Qualls would look nice in either uniform.

No matter how good he looks in a uniform, with 108 being average, 105 ERA+ isn't going to cut it.

Red Sox updated 1/17 with Fuentes. Bullpen is pretty much set for right now.

Seattle Mariners

Lineup
1) SS Asdrubal Cabrera 99 OPS+
2) RF Ben Zobrist 112 OPS+
3) DH Lance Berkman 122 OPS+
4) 1B Justin Morneau 142 OPS+
5) CF Adam Jones 106 OPS+
6) 2B Neil Walker 105 OPS+
7) 3B David Freese 95 OPS+
8. C Josh Thole 96 OPS+
9) LF Nyjer Morgan 80 OPS+

Lineup Ave - 106.33 OPS+

Starting Rotation
(L) Jonathan Sanchez, 3.66 ERA, 114 ERA+
(R) Edwin Jackson, 4.55, 98 ERA+
(R) Derek Lowe, 4.39 ERA, 92 ERA+
(R) Carlos Villanueva, 4.23 ERA, 97 ERA+

League Ave - 96.0 ERA+
Rotation Ave - 100.25 ERA+

Bullpen
CL Ryan Madson - 123 ERA+*
RH Kenley Jansen - 3.52 ERA, ERA+ 113
RH Josh Lueke - 4.00 ERA, ERA+ 102
RH Ryan Webb - 3.86 ERA, ERA+ 98
LH Victor Garate - 3.88 ERA, ERA+ 105
LH RJ Swindle - 4.04 ERA, ERA+ 104
LH George Sherrill - 4.04 ERA, ERA+ 100

* = 2010 Projection
League Ave - 108.0 ERA+
Bullpen Ave - 106.42 ERA+

A hard team to call. On first glance I'd say it's light in the BP given the extra stress a 4 man rotation can cause but Safeco is a pretty good pitcher's park so maybe not. The offense looks fine if Morneau gets one of those giant helmets like that Bills Safety used to have. If he misses significant time, the offense becomes much less formidable. Last year they sported a +98 RD and had a PT of 91 while winning 92 games.

Oakland A's

Line-up
C Buster Posey - 125 OPS+
1B Adam Dunn - 142 OPS+
2B Mark Ellis - 88 OPS+
3B Dan Descalso - 94 OPS+
SS Juan Uribe - 101 OPS+
LF Jason Bay - 117 OPS+
CF Cody Ross - 104 OPS+
RF Mike Stanton - 112 OPS+
DH Manny - 122 OPS+

* = 2010 Projection
Line-up Ave - 111.66 OPS+

Rotation
SP Shawn Marcum - 115 ERA+
SP Brett Myers - 101 ERA+
SP Derek Holand - 100 ERA+
SP Jason Vargas - 96 ERA+
SP Brian Tallet - 89 ERA+

League Ave - 96.0 ERA+
Rotation Ave - 100.2 ERA+

Bullpen
RP Huston Street - 139 ERA+
RP Kyle McClellen - 111 ERA+
RP Santa Castilla - 111 ERA+
RP Brad Ziegler - 108 ERA+
RP Mike DiFelice - 107 ERA+
RP Denny Reyes - 102 ERA+

League Ave - 108.0 ERA+
Bullpen Ave - 113.0 ERA+

With 3 DH's this team should score more than it's share of runs even with Manny no longer quite the Manny he once was. Without looking at the factors I though the Coliseum was harder on hitting than it is. It looks like it makes a lot of it's hay by holding down the number of doubles hit there. I think the rotation looks light, but who knows. The team actually underplayed it's PT last year by 2 wins by coming in at 87 victories.

First of all thanks for getting on this, always fun to project this time of year. DMB always seems to exhaggerate Oakland's park effect which is why I need as many EX power hitters as I can find . Mazzaro is by all accounts a very nice guy, but if I roll with a 5th starter it'll probably be sim freak du jour (Ledezma and Tallet are your leaders in the clubhouse)

Kansas City Royals

Lineup
C: Victor Martinez - 111 OPS+
1B: Ryan Howard - 124 OPS+
2B: Aaron Hill - 100 OPS+
3B: Chipper Jones - 111 OPS+
SS: Cliff Pennington - 80 OPS+
LF: Adam Lind - 109 OPS+
CF: Coco Crisp - 93 OPS+
RF: Andre Ethier - 127 OPS+
DH: Vernon Wells - 104 OPS+

* = 2010 Projection
Lineup Ave = 106.55

Rotation:
Jon Lester - 118 ERA+*
Wandy Rodriguez - 109 ERA+
Brett Anderson - 100 ERA+
Carlos Zambrano - 123 ERA+*
Tom Gorzelanny - 105 ERA+*

* = 2010 Projection
League Ave = 96.0 ERA+
Rotation Ave = 111.0 ERA+

Bullpen:
Michael Kohn - 96 ERA+
Jason Frasor - 114 ERA+
John Axford - 114 ERA+
DJ Carrasco - 112 ERA+
Jeremy Affeldt - 118 ERA+
Joba Chamberlain - 107 ERA+*

* = 2010 Projection
League Ave = 108.0 ERA+
Bullpen Ave = 110.16 ERA+

A couple key additions have made the offense strong. The pitching is solid as well. Coco better have his running shoes on because he's going to have to cover right and left centerfield. I think this team should contend for the ALC title and the WC.

Minnesota Twins

Lineup:
C Brandon Inge - 86 OPS+*
1B Adam LaRoche - 106 OPS+
2B Bill Hall - 72 OPS+*
3B Allen Craig - 106 OPS+
SS Luis Valbuena - 85 OPS+
LF Matt Kemp - 111 OPS+
CF Raj Davis - 88 OPS+
RF Mike Cuddyer - 104 OPS+
DH Jim Thome - 134 OPS+

* = 2010 Projection
Lineup Ave - 99.11 OPS+

Rotation:
SP Mad Bum - 106 ERA+
SP Randy Wells - 106 ERA+*
SP Randy Wolf - 100 ERA+
SP Jeff Francis - 100 ERA+
SP Joel Pineiro - 94 ERA+
-------------------------------
SP Mike Montgomery - 91 ERA+
SP Nick Blackburn - 87 ERA+

* = 2010 Projection
League Ave = 96.0 ERA+
Rotation Ave = 101.2 ERA+

Bullpen:
RP Heath Bell - 138 ERA+
RP Rafi Bethencourt - 133 ERA+
RP Rob Tejada - 116 ERA+
RP Mike Wuertz - 114 ERA+
RP Peter Moylan - 104 ERA+
RP Royce Ring - 89 ERA+

League Ave = 108.0 ERA+
Bullpen Ave - 115.66 ERA+

Minnnesota has been a contender for a playoff spot for the last 5 or so years. I may not have the lineup as Andrew would have it because there are so many guys with multi-positional eligibility. Minnesota's park effects should be different as well this year after being neutral as a new park last year. Bullpen is very good with easy improvement to be had by upgrading Ring.

Chicago Whire Sox

Lineup:
C Miguel Olivo - 75 OPS+
1B Daric Barton* - 108 OPS+
2B Gordon Beckham - 99 OPS+
3B Chase Headley# - 110 OPS+
SS Alexi Ramirez - 95 OPS+
LF Kevin Youkilis - 127 OPS+*
CF Alex Rios - 100 OPS+
RF Corey Hart - 114 OPS+
DH Nick Weglarz* - 96 OPS+

* = 2010 Projection
Lineup Ave - 102.66 OPS+

SP:
SP Ubaldo Jimenez - 153 ERA+
SP John Danks* - 117 ERA+
SP Daniel Hudson - 124 ERA+
SP Jeff Niemann - 97 ERA+
SP Jake Peavy - 117 ERA+
-------------------------------------
SP Bryan Augenstein - 91 ERA+
SP John Lannan* - 90 ERA+
SP Joshua Outman* - 86 ERA+

* = 2010 Projection
League Ave - 96.0 ERA+
Rotation Ave - 121.6 ERA+

Pen:
CL J.P Howell* - 135 ERA+
RHSU Drew Storen – 125 ERA+
LHSU Michael Kirkman* - 89 ERA+
RP Shawn Camp – 107 ERA+
RP Todd Coffey – 96 ERA+
RP Jhan Marinez - 97 ERA+

League Ave - 108.0 ERA+
Bullpen Ave - 108.16 ERA+

Rotation is elite. Lineup is okay offensively, but quite strong defensively. An upgrade at DH shouldn't be too hard to find. Lefthanded relief isn't too strong but closer is lefthanded so he'll need a good durability rating.

Some quick running totals. 1 point for lowest, 7 for highest. Low total is best. Obviously Bullpen shouldn't be equal to the others so I'll multiply Rotation and Lineup by 2.

Lineup OPS+:
2. Oakland - 112.66
4. Boston - 109.88
6. Kansas City - 108.77
8. Toronto - 106.88
10. Seattle - 106.22
12. Chicago - 102.66
14. Minnesota - 99.11

Rotation ERA+:
2. Chicago - 121.6
4. Kansas City - 111.0
6. Boston - 108.0
8. Toronto - 106.2
10. Seattle - 101.25
12. Minnesota - 101.2
14. Oakland - 100.2

Bullpen ERA+:
1. Toronto - 130.83
2. Boston - 120.2
3. Minnesota - 115.66
4. Oakland - 113.0
5. Kansas City - 110.16
6. Chicago - 108.16
7. Seattle - 106.42

Totals:
1. Boston - 12 points
2. Kansas City 15 Points
3. Toronto - 17 points
4. Oakland - 20 points
5. Chicago - 20 points
6. Seattle - 27 points
7. Minnesota - 29 points

Where are the defending IBC Champs in this discussing... maybe I want to change it up and win the WC this year!

Yankees wrote:Where are the defending IBC Champs in this discussing... maybe I want to change it up and win the WC this year!

You mean you do not enjoy the respect of having the upper hand on the AL East right off the bat? Or do you just want to see how much better you are than all the teams vying for the WC?

Patrick could always evaluate the other 7 teams in the AL as he tries to predict the future.

Yankees wrote:Where are the defending IBC Champs in this discussing... maybe I want to change it up and win the WC this year!

Make a Tayloresque trade of Pujols to the NL and you'll be there.

Overbay and Fernando Salas! I'll send it in

Cardinals wrote:Overbay and Fernando Salas! I'll send it in

I'll approve it!

As long as there is a clause in the deal that states Pujols can never go to JP I might have to at least consider it. Especially if I can get Salas in the deal

We had a clause when I dealt him Pujols in 2004, that if he were to ever quit he would deal Pujols back to me for exactly what he gave up for him. Of course then he got pissy and quit over nothing one day and Pujols went elsewhere in a minidraft

Updated with Manny - .260/.384/.468, 122 OPS+

Updated with Edwin Jackson - 12-11, 4.55, 205.2 IP, 209 H, 28 HR, 80 BB, 164 K, 98 ERA+. Jackson's drop from 117 ERA+ to 98 ERA+ hurts four man rotation in Seattle.

Good stuff. A couple of notes about the Jays. Carlos Ruiz is in the mix at C, hope he projects better than 95+, 144 last year. Meche retired, no option there, kind of hoping Contreras or Uehara get a starter rating to help the rotation.

Updated with Gil Meche's retirement.

Uehara didn't get a starters projection. Have to wait on Contreras and Ruiz.