IBC

I'm assuming at this stage that we are going to be using the 2011 ZIPS projections again as we haven't heard anything about DMB doing a projection disk or any other projection disks being produced for next season.

If that is the case, so everyone is trading on fair grounds this winter, everyone should be aware that Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory has started producing the 2011 ZIPS projections for teams going from the lowest team salary up to the highest. He has listed three teams so far.......Pirates, Padres and A's.

Figured everyone would like to be made aware of this.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/

Diamond Mind is going to be releasing the ZiPS disc according to Zymborski, meaning we should at least have platoon splits for most if not all players.

Baseball Prospectus is also having chatter about PECOTA released into Diamond Mind format.

I know we've heard chatter in previous years from BP releasing a PECOTA based DMB projection. Any thoughts that this season the chatter may be more serious or similar to prior years?

BP staff members have been asking people on Twitter if there would be interest in PECOTA into Diamond Mind, so take it for what it's worth. Would be nice if they determined there's enough interest. If any of you have twitter, here's the post that you could reply to:

http://twitter.com/#!/cwyers/status/1005186810118144

I think decision should be made now as to what we use. People will start making trades and pick up players based on the Zips projections and we need to be able to stabilize this.

Also, we all know we'll get into a pissing match as to what we use as everyone will argue what projection system is best for their respective teams.

I'd say we should stick with plan A being the off chance DMB actually does go back to their projections with a plan B of Zips to be consistent with what we have already done (esp if they have player splits).

If Diamond Mind is releasing the ZiPS projection disc, why on earth would they release their own?

Shits & giggles

I think it would be foolish to make a decision now on what we are using rather than waiting until details are in place. I think a majority of the league would probably prefer PECOTA if they were made fully available, however if there are caveats such as fielding or splits, ZIPS might make more sense. I think that if you choose to make moves based on ZIPS then you're running the risk that we might not use them, the same thing would apply even if we did make a ruling, people might make moves based on PECOTA and if they don't release a disk then we revert to ZIPS. In conclusion...I think we're best off keeping our options open at this point.

Agreed with Shawn.

Valid points, I agree with everything you say. However, I don't trust the majority of the league to make educated decisions based on those points as opposed to which of the projections is best for the players on their team. That is my worry.

I'd think right off the bat that there would be an overwhelming consensus to use PECOTA if at all possible. There has been plenty of hatred for ZiPS the last two seasons. Of course, your concern is also valid but I think having all our options listed before making a decision on the projection system we use is most important. If we can use PECOTA, I think that's the route we should go and I have a feeling that's the route ExCo would vote to go to (regardless of who the next two members are.) Maybe others in the league would vote to overturn a potential ExCo ruling to use ZiPS, but I really don't foresee that happening.

It also depends on if PECOTA would be fully available as Shawn said - we don't know how they'd put defense into the database. So I think we need to wait and see what happens. At the very least, the fact that Diamond Mind is releasing ZiPS is encouraging news.