Boston/DevilRays Trade protest
Posted: Fri Feb 23, 2007 4:03 pm
The Following Trade
Boston gets Curt Schilling
Tampa Bay gets Michael Bourn, Blake Hawksworth and Alberto Gonzalez
has been approved by the TRC but challenged by some of the general membership. It is up for a vote. A 2/3 majority (20 votes) is required to overturn the trade.
Trade Defense
1. TB shopped Schilling actively and vocally for over two weeks... no one else wanted him and certainly no one was going to give up a top 100 prospect as someone argued Schilling was worth. If someone thinks Schilling was worth more, he should have offered it. No one wanted to make an offer for Schilling. Except Boston.
2. It was also claimed that prospects of equal value are available as Free Agents. Pure bullcrap. Hawksworth is StL's #4, Bourn is Philly's #7. How many top 10 prospects are available as free agents right now? None, because Prospect values are high right now while the value of old farts with just a few miles left on the odometer is very low. None of the prospects will be superstars, but NO ONE will give up superstar potential for a 40yr old arm. They're solid prospects with opportunities to contribute.
3. This is a deal that just flat out makes sense for both sides. Boston gets an arm to try to keep pace with NY for a little longer, Tamp Bay gets some young guys to build with.
Curt Schilling is a very good pitcher, but he's 40 years old and probably has 2 years left in him, at the maximum. Of the last four seasons, he has missed significant time in two of them and if he suffers another injury this season it wouldn't be surprising to see him call it a career. He'll be Boston's counter to JB's Clemens, but like Clemens, who knows how long he'll be around.
Will Carroll (the pre-eminent writer on baseball player health and injuries) called him a Red injury risk (Red being the worst of Blue, Green, Yellow and Red) and had this to say about him:
It took him until midseason to really be stable on the legendar ankle. Add his age and all of his offseason interests into the equation, and I think his conditioning and desire have to be called into question. I think he has answers to those questions, but he?s supremely risky, especially early in the season.
There is enough question about Schilling's future (and his physical conditioning this past offseason) that the Boston Red Sox are prepared to let him hit Free Agency after this season. In the IBC, no one wanted to make an offer for Schilling. Except Boston
Blake Hawksworth had ace potential before he got injured. He's healthy again now and in spite of his velocity dropping a couple ticks, his curve and changeup remain very good and BA rated him as the #4 prospect in St Louis. He still has #3 potential and even if he ended up as a reliever, that's more than Schilling will be doing in 2009.
Michael Bourn is Philly's #7 prospect according to BA. He is an excellent defender, one of the fastest players in the minors and has good basestealing ability, with an 85% career success rate. He doesn't have much pop, but unlike say, Joey Gathright, he usually works within his skill set and doesn't try to become something he's not. He makes good contact, walks and has a solid k/bb ratio. The most common comparison for him is Kenny Lofton with less pop or Juan Pierre. .280/.360/.400 with 30-40 steals a season isn't unreasonable.
Kevin Goldstein, who left BA for Baseball Prospectus, had this to say about Bourn:
Prototypical centerfielder/leadoff man who one scout refers to as "Kenny Lofton lite" and has no glaring weaknesses for the type of player he is. Solid hitter who uses the gaps well, as evidenced by nearly 14 triples per 600 at-bats in the minors. Draws walks at a decent clip and has a career stolen base success rate of 85%. Outstanding centerfielder with an arm that as at least average, if not a tick above.
Alberto Gonzalez went from the Midwest league in 2005 to AA and AAA in 2006. Like Bourn, he doesn't have a lot of pop, but plays great defense and is a very good contact hitter. He could draw more walks, but his strike out rate is very low. He'll never be a superstar but he could be a decent regular if he gets traded (as the Yankees will ultimately do to acquire a superstar to replace whatever superstar gets injured in the first half of the season) since there's absolutely no chance of anyone ever getting past Derek Jeter's Ego no matter how bad his defense is or even if the best shortstop in history joins the team.
Two weeks of shopping Schilling, nobody wanted him. Nobody else wanted him because as talented as he is, he's old, he's been injured, he came into camp in questionable condition and as such he's a HUGE gamble. The prospects are also gambles, but TB doesn't need a 40 yr old gamble, he needs players for the future. Boston needs a guy to roll the dice with to keep up with NY. This protest is a perfect example of GM's saying a player is worth more, but no one actually being willing to offer it.
Trade Protest
I am strongly opposed to the trade of Curt Schilling for Alberto Gonzalez, Michael Bourn and Blake Hawksworth. I'm not a contender. I'm not in the division with these teams. I have no vested interest. I just feel this trade is utterly unacceptable. My critque below cites statistics, experts sources and common sense.
Curt Schilling: Everyone is familiar with Schilling's credentials. Consistently outstanding WHIP, K/BB and K/9. He's a quality start machine in DMB. On Jan 29 the Boston Globe reported that Schilling does not plan to retire after 2007 so you can evaluate this deal as if Bren is getting two years of Schilling. Yes, he is old and he did have an injury marred 2005. But DMB has shown with Unit/Rocket/etc that it will give very good projections to 40 year old pitchers who have been consistent performers. Curt was healthy for 30 starts in 2006 so his 2005 injury (which wasn't an arm injury) doesn't make him any more of an injury risk than any other pitcher. For the next two years he'll be one of the best 25 starting pitchers in the IBC.
In return for a great pitcher the DRays are getting 3 low ceiling non-premium prospects. If Trade Review won't block a premier starting pitcher being dealt for no major leaguers and 3 suspect prospects then what are we doing here?
John Sickel's grades (and comments):
Michael Bourn, OF, B- (good speed, but will he hit enough?)
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, C+ (good glove)
Blake Hawksworth, RHP, C+ (seems to have overcome shoulder trouble but doesn't throw as hard)
Bourne and Hawksworth did place in BA top 10s for their organizations. However, their orgs are also rated by BA among the 5 worst in the minors. Neither player ranked in any top100 list and I feel confident they would not place in a top 200 list either.
Michael Bourn: A college draftee from the University of Houston. Had an outstanding campaign in 2004 in the lowest level of full season A-ball (.433OBP/.903OPS). That made him a hot prospect. Rising up the ladder the OBP fell into the .350 range and the power completely vanished. He doesn't have over the fence power and by hitting only 10 measley doubles in 470 ABs during 2006 he pretty much offset the 13 triples. It's tempting for people to try to label a flyswatting speed demon CF as Juan Pierre. But Pierre walked more than he struck out in the minors and hit .326 in his first exposure to Double-A. Repeating AA Bourne only hit .274 with a .715OPS. Bourne struck out 100 times in 2006 which doesn't bode well for his make contact and use his speed Pierre comp. Check out the list of his top 10 PECOTA comparables if you want to see what he's likely to become: Adam Greenberg (2005), Mike Curry (2001), Gene Richards (1978), Tim Raines Jr (2004), Donzell Mcdonald (1999), Jermaine Clark (2001), Sebastien Boucher (2006), Nathan Haynes (2004), Jamal Strong (2003), Mckay Christensen (2000). You can get guys like Bourne off the free agent wire all the time.
Alberto Gonzalez: Sickels grades him a C+ prospect. 23 year old 5'11 160 lb shortstop. Traded by the Dbacks to the Yankees. Not much with the stick. You can use the link to see the stats. With his weak offensive profile and Cano & Jeter ahead of him he's never going to be a starter. As of this writing Danny Richar is a free agent infielder and has just as good or better future and Brooks Conrad is also a free agent and will sim far better.
Blake Hawksworth: Sickels grades him a C+ prospect and comments that his post injury stuff isn't as good. Was injured most of 2005 and 2006. PECOTA doesn't think much of him labeling these as his top 10 comps: Ryan Glynn (1999), Kevin Beirne (1998), Jon Mcdonald (2002), Josh Hancock (2002), Brian Bannister (2005), Cam Spence (1999), Chris Gissell (2002), Eric Ireland (2001), Tim Manwiller (1999), Landon Jacobsen (2003). Who?
In summary, I don't feel these prospects even close to warrant Schilling. Bourne and Gonzalez aren't even guys I would claim if they were free agents. I urge you to side with the protest and make these two teams rework their deal.
Quite frankly if Tampa did not leave 14 roster spots vacant during the bulk of 2006 season he could have signed minor league free agents that are better than the 3 players he is getting in this deal. Block this trade not to protect Tampa from themselves but to maintain integrity in a league that has over 20 owners who pour alot of effort into it.
Boston gets Curt Schilling
Tampa Bay gets Michael Bourn, Blake Hawksworth and Alberto Gonzalez
has been approved by the TRC but challenged by some of the general membership. It is up for a vote. A 2/3 majority (20 votes) is required to overturn the trade.
Trade Defense
1. TB shopped Schilling actively and vocally for over two weeks... no one else wanted him and certainly no one was going to give up a top 100 prospect as someone argued Schilling was worth. If someone thinks Schilling was worth more, he should have offered it. No one wanted to make an offer for Schilling. Except Boston.
2. It was also claimed that prospects of equal value are available as Free Agents. Pure bullcrap. Hawksworth is StL's #4, Bourn is Philly's #7. How many top 10 prospects are available as free agents right now? None, because Prospect values are high right now while the value of old farts with just a few miles left on the odometer is very low. None of the prospects will be superstars, but NO ONE will give up superstar potential for a 40yr old arm. They're solid prospects with opportunities to contribute.
3. This is a deal that just flat out makes sense for both sides. Boston gets an arm to try to keep pace with NY for a little longer, Tamp Bay gets some young guys to build with.
Curt Schilling is a very good pitcher, but he's 40 years old and probably has 2 years left in him, at the maximum. Of the last four seasons, he has missed significant time in two of them and if he suffers another injury this season it wouldn't be surprising to see him call it a career. He'll be Boston's counter to JB's Clemens, but like Clemens, who knows how long he'll be around.
Will Carroll (the pre-eminent writer on baseball player health and injuries) called him a Red injury risk (Red being the worst of Blue, Green, Yellow and Red) and had this to say about him:
It took him until midseason to really be stable on the legendar ankle. Add his age and all of his offseason interests into the equation, and I think his conditioning and desire have to be called into question. I think he has answers to those questions, but he?s supremely risky, especially early in the season.
There is enough question about Schilling's future (and his physical conditioning this past offseason) that the Boston Red Sox are prepared to let him hit Free Agency after this season. In the IBC, no one wanted to make an offer for Schilling. Except Boston
Blake Hawksworth had ace potential before he got injured. He's healthy again now and in spite of his velocity dropping a couple ticks, his curve and changeup remain very good and BA rated him as the #4 prospect in St Louis. He still has #3 potential and even if he ended up as a reliever, that's more than Schilling will be doing in 2009.
Michael Bourn is Philly's #7 prospect according to BA. He is an excellent defender, one of the fastest players in the minors and has good basestealing ability, with an 85% career success rate. He doesn't have much pop, but unlike say, Joey Gathright, he usually works within his skill set and doesn't try to become something he's not. He makes good contact, walks and has a solid k/bb ratio. The most common comparison for him is Kenny Lofton with less pop or Juan Pierre. .280/.360/.400 with 30-40 steals a season isn't unreasonable.
Kevin Goldstein, who left BA for Baseball Prospectus, had this to say about Bourn:
Prototypical centerfielder/leadoff man who one scout refers to as "Kenny Lofton lite" and has no glaring weaknesses for the type of player he is. Solid hitter who uses the gaps well, as evidenced by nearly 14 triples per 600 at-bats in the minors. Draws walks at a decent clip and has a career stolen base success rate of 85%. Outstanding centerfielder with an arm that as at least average, if not a tick above.
Alberto Gonzalez went from the Midwest league in 2005 to AA and AAA in 2006. Like Bourn, he doesn't have a lot of pop, but plays great defense and is a very good contact hitter. He could draw more walks, but his strike out rate is very low. He'll never be a superstar but he could be a decent regular if he gets traded (as the Yankees will ultimately do to acquire a superstar to replace whatever superstar gets injured in the first half of the season) since there's absolutely no chance of anyone ever getting past Derek Jeter's Ego no matter how bad his defense is or even if the best shortstop in history joins the team.
Two weeks of shopping Schilling, nobody wanted him. Nobody else wanted him because as talented as he is, he's old, he's been injured, he came into camp in questionable condition and as such he's a HUGE gamble. The prospects are also gambles, but TB doesn't need a 40 yr old gamble, he needs players for the future. Boston needs a guy to roll the dice with to keep up with NY. This protest is a perfect example of GM's saying a player is worth more, but no one actually being willing to offer it.
Trade Protest
I am strongly opposed to the trade of Curt Schilling for Alberto Gonzalez, Michael Bourn and Blake Hawksworth. I'm not a contender. I'm not in the division with these teams. I have no vested interest. I just feel this trade is utterly unacceptable. My critque below cites statistics, experts sources and common sense.
Curt Schilling: Everyone is familiar with Schilling's credentials. Consistently outstanding WHIP, K/BB and K/9. He's a quality start machine in DMB. On Jan 29 the Boston Globe reported that Schilling does not plan to retire after 2007 so you can evaluate this deal as if Bren is getting two years of Schilling. Yes, he is old and he did have an injury marred 2005. But DMB has shown with Unit/Rocket/etc that it will give very good projections to 40 year old pitchers who have been consistent performers. Curt was healthy for 30 starts in 2006 so his 2005 injury (which wasn't an arm injury) doesn't make him any more of an injury risk than any other pitcher. For the next two years he'll be one of the best 25 starting pitchers in the IBC.
In return for a great pitcher the DRays are getting 3 low ceiling non-premium prospects. If Trade Review won't block a premier starting pitcher being dealt for no major leaguers and 3 suspect prospects then what are we doing here?
John Sickel's grades (and comments):
Michael Bourn, OF, B- (good speed, but will he hit enough?)
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, C+ (good glove)
Blake Hawksworth, RHP, C+ (seems to have overcome shoulder trouble but doesn't throw as hard)
Bourne and Hawksworth did place in BA top 10s for their organizations. However, their orgs are also rated by BA among the 5 worst in the minors. Neither player ranked in any top100 list and I feel confident they would not place in a top 200 list either.
Michael Bourn: A college draftee from the University of Houston. Had an outstanding campaign in 2004 in the lowest level of full season A-ball (.433OBP/.903OPS). That made him a hot prospect. Rising up the ladder the OBP fell into the .350 range and the power completely vanished. He doesn't have over the fence power and by hitting only 10 measley doubles in 470 ABs during 2006 he pretty much offset the 13 triples. It's tempting for people to try to label a flyswatting speed demon CF as Juan Pierre. But Pierre walked more than he struck out in the minors and hit .326 in his first exposure to Double-A. Repeating AA Bourne only hit .274 with a .715OPS. Bourne struck out 100 times in 2006 which doesn't bode well for his make contact and use his speed Pierre comp. Check out the list of his top 10 PECOTA comparables if you want to see what he's likely to become: Adam Greenberg (2005), Mike Curry (2001), Gene Richards (1978), Tim Raines Jr (2004), Donzell Mcdonald (1999), Jermaine Clark (2001), Sebastien Boucher (2006), Nathan Haynes (2004), Jamal Strong (2003), Mckay Christensen (2000). You can get guys like Bourne off the free agent wire all the time.
Alberto Gonzalez: Sickels grades him a C+ prospect. 23 year old 5'11 160 lb shortstop. Traded by the Dbacks to the Yankees. Not much with the stick. You can use the link to see the stats. With his weak offensive profile and Cano & Jeter ahead of him he's never going to be a starter. As of this writing Danny Richar is a free agent infielder and has just as good or better future and Brooks Conrad is also a free agent and will sim far better.
Blake Hawksworth: Sickels grades him a C+ prospect and comments that his post injury stuff isn't as good. Was injured most of 2005 and 2006. PECOTA doesn't think much of him labeling these as his top 10 comps: Ryan Glynn (1999), Kevin Beirne (1998), Jon Mcdonald (2002), Josh Hancock (2002), Brian Bannister (2005), Cam Spence (1999), Chris Gissell (2002), Eric Ireland (2001), Tim Manwiller (1999), Landon Jacobsen (2003). Who?
In summary, I don't feel these prospects even close to warrant Schilling. Bourne and Gonzalez aren't even guys I would claim if they were free agents. I urge you to side with the protest and make these two teams rework their deal.
Quite frankly if Tampa did not leave 14 roster spots vacant during the bulk of 2006 season he could have signed minor league free agents that are better than the 3 players he is getting in this deal. Block this trade not to protect Tampa from themselves but to maintain integrity in a league that has over 20 owners who pour alot of effort into it.