First of all, I changed the name of the projection system to HiRes (pronounced "Hires" not "High Res") in order to keep the rootbeer theme going. many of you may not know that Nils and I named the league IBC after our favorite rootbeer.
As for the actual update, here is where things stand.
There are two aspects to this projection system. The first is the actual projections themselves. The "his is what I think this guy will do this season". This is getting very close to being done. I had some setbacks associated with the park factors and with using data from different sources and have had to go back pretty far a couple times. Not quite to square one, more like square three. I feel like I'm getting pretty close though, barring another return to square three.
The second aspect is making it DMB ready. The good news here is that I have an automated method of importing the data. Obviously, this is a huge deal as manually inputting 1500-2000 players would be just absurd.That's at least 50 players a day every day for a month.
The challenge though, is that there are still some details to be ironed out in how DMB uses the projection data.DMB requires ratings for a vast number of things. Some of these are easy to figure out (Power v. lefties for instance). Others are a lot more difficult, such as Jump or Running. While I have some ideas on how to approach them, they're not steps I've made any significant effort on yet.
I know the ExCo is leaning towards ZiPS for this season, but I'm still optimistic of having a viable alternative produced well before the start of the season, with end of February as my own internal deadline. Even if the ExCo decides tonight that ZiPS is a go for 2010, I plan to stick with it and use 2010 as a litmus test for HiRes.
HiRes 2010 Update
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Dodgers
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From my personal standpoint, not an ExCo statement, I think any "new" projection system is going to have to go through the ringer/at least one season before it can be accepted as valid...I'm sure over the course of the next year you'll make plenty of tweaks as you analyze your system. That being said, my personal preference is to use a 3rd party system to keep any potential claims of impropriety, etc at bay.
