Last Power Rankings of 2009 (NL)

[Cardinals]

The Favorite
Tier 1 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh. Yup, I'm putting myself as the favorite in the NL. Expectations are high in Pittsburgh this year after a disappointing defeat in the NLDS last year. Still, any year where you win 113 games has to be considered a success. After moping around for a bit, Pitt now boasts a rotation comprised of Lincecum, Halladay, Greinke and Haren. Possibly the top 3 pitchers in baseball and 4 of the top 10. Broxton closing the door with Adams and Stetter setting up should be sufficient, thoguh I'd still like to add another RP. The offense will be pretty good with Longoria and Holliday, possibly the the top players at their positions, with Fukudome and Nick Johnson providing a lot of...walks. Shoppach and Gutierrez will provide some power as well. The defense should be outstanding with Longoria, Vizquel and Gutierrez all being extremely good defenders. Holliday is no slouch either. The Pirates could stand to add another impact bat, but likely will be able to win a lot of games as is.


The Contenders
Tier 2 San Francisco, St. Louis, Florida

San Francisco. The Giants went back to the WS last year and lost...again. But hey, they got there. Nils has been busy this offseason picking up a bunch of pitchers. Johan, Josh Johnson, Gallardo and Nolasco is a nifty front four. The problem for the Giants will be the offense and bullpen. The defense should be sound in SF as per usual with Rolen, Rollins, Rios and Victorino. The problem is, a lot of the Giants players are either coming of career years (Hill) or down years (Rios, Hermida, Rollins, Martin). Scoring runs might be a problem in SF despite the name-brand players. The bullpen isn't so hot either. Still, the SP is excellent and the pen and offense can be fixed with a couple of moves. If Nils hits the right buttons, the Giants could very well end up in the World Series again.


St. Louis. The Cards were coming off back to back pennants last year and followed it up with 94 wins...which was good to be left out of the playoffs last year. The Cards look pretty solid top to bottom. Wainwright and Jurjenns comprise a pretty solid 1-2 punch. Sizemore, Butler, Hawpe and Smith are all good hitters, even if Butler and Hawpe are hacks in the field. Francisco, Gregorson, Perez, Eyre, Downs and Clippard will provide for a deep and effective bullpen in St. Louis. The Cards are solid everywhere, but not spectacular anywhere. That's typically the theme of Aaron's teams. The Cards could challenge for a third pennant in four years or be left out of the playoffs entirely - neither outcome would surprise me one bit.


Florida. Dan made the correct move in taking off from the AL East and going to Florida in 2008. It's resulted in back to back division titles and a trip to the NLCS this past year where the Marlins were sent home by the Giants. 2010 looks good for Florida so far as well. Verlander, Burnett, Scherzer and Buerhle comprise a nice 1-4 in the rotation. Tulowitzki and Kinsler is one of the better middle infields in the league. Aramis and Crawford are both dangerous. Affeldt and Hoffman in the pen will be a nice duo late in games. As long as Florida stays healthy, a third trip back to October baseball seems likely for the Fish.


The Light Horses
Tier 3 Philadelphia, Washington, Arizona, Cincinnati

Philadelphia. Nick's playoff drought continues but 2010 could be the year where that ends. Peavy, Hudson and Blanton are pretty good pitchers. Offense for Philly has been tough to come by lately and that may have changed after picking up Roberts, Werth and DeRosa to go along with Ibanez and Berkman. Madson, Masset and Miller will provide the relief and maybe Escobar will string together a healthy year for the first time in a long time. Either way, this Phillies team has the best chance as they've had in awhile of making the playoffs. With a couple of breaks, Philly could easily find itself atop the NL East or Wild Card.


Washington. Zalaski took his Royals and fled the AL Central and now reside in the NL East. This will be a pretty tough division this year. Z's team is a lot like the Cards and Phils - solid in many facets but not quite spectacular. Cain leads the rotation followed up by Dempster, Chris Young, Feldman and a glut of guys in the 5th spot including Morton. Beltran is a huge pickup and an OF of Swisher, Beltran and Cruz is pretty good. Napoli, Prado, Theriot and who knows at 1B rounds out the offense. The bullpen has a bunch of names, but no true closer. Oliver, Taylor Buchholz, Carlos, Aceves, Lyon, Guerrier and Robertson comprise a solid but not overwhelming unit. Z always makes a ton of moves and adjustment throughout the whole season by the Phils, Nats and Marlins might be necessary to see who wins the division. The Nats have a strong chance at doing so, but it will take a few breaks and a move or two to take Dan out of the throne.


Arizona. Jag in 2008 found himself winning game 163 and making the playoffs for the first time ever by taking out Martin and winning the NL West. In 2009, he finished third and just never made the big move or two necessary to make the playoffs in '09. Jag is set up very nicely to contend heavily for the NL West crown in '10. Teixeira, the Uptons, Santana, Weeks and Gonzalez will help make up a dangerous lineup. Tommy Hanson will likely lead a young rotation, which on the surface seems bad ass, but as far as 2010 goes, it could be AZ's achilles heel. Garza, Latos, Morrow, Davis and Liriano will fill it out- all very good talents, but might not be badasses in the IBC quite yet. The bullpen gave Jag fits last year and he hopes to have that solved with Andrew Bailey closing the door. The D'Backs will contend, but the story for them in 2010 might be if Jag is willing to make the move to bulk up the staff to take Nils out and return to postseason baseball.


Cincinnati. Ken rivals me for moving his franchises around. Originally two time NL Central division winner Houston, Ken took his squad to Florida and Washington where he won the Wild Card before coming home to take control of his favorite Reds. That could be a tragic error with Pittsburgh and St. Louis looking strong this year, but if anybody can manipulate the sim to their advantage, Ken can. The SP looks to be league average with Arroyo, Westbrook, Cook, Masterson and Norris. The offense will be pretty good with Choo and Helton. Hardy and Beltre will provide plus defense and Morgan was one of the best defenders in baseball last year. The Reds have some depth and will likely have to sacrifice it in order to leapfrog St. Louis and Pittsburgh. If anybody else had this team, I'd likely put them a tier lower, but Ken just wins so he gets the benefit of the doubt.


The Dark Horses
Tier 4 Chicago, San Diego, Los Angeles, Colorado

Chicago. The Cubs have put up back to back 68 win seasons and seemingly for the first time ever, Gabe rebuilt last year with his eye on 2010. Too bad for Gabe that the NL Central is now the toughest division in the league. The Cubs have one of the more premium talents in the league in Kershaw, but will he project to be the ace of the staff? He's still very young and walked a lot last year, something that projection systems typically aren't fond of. Behind him in the rotation are Wandy Rodriguez and Randy Wells, and rounded out with Penny and Hammel. On the whole, a decent rotation but ultimately underwhelming. The offense will be the strength of the Cubs in '10 with McCutchen, Morales, Lind, Willingham and Uggla all likely to be plus bats. The defense is another story with Willingham, Lind and Uggla all being legitimate liabilities in the field. The bullpen could go either way with Aardsma, Marmol, Zavada, Guzman and Coke. The Cubs are definitely not a bad team, but it will take a bunch of breaks for the Cubs as is to jump past the Reds, Cards and Pirates. Gabe is always looking to deal, so with a couple of moves the Cubs chances could drastically increase.


San Diego. This is weird with Bren being in the land of Whale's Vagina. Bren couldn't take always playing for second place in the AL East and rightfully so. The Padres are a tough team to put my finger on. Webb, Bedard and Duensing are legitimate pitchers. Webb and Bedard are health risks of course, but when they are healthy they are two of the best. The offense will be pretty good with Dunn, Pedrioa, Figgins, Scutaro and Scott. Oddly, the Padres asset is their bullpen. Fuentes, Soriano, Jenks and Okijima are all in the Pads' pen. It's possible that you could be playing a 7 inning game against the Padres, but the other SPs aren't there in order to be truly scared of the Padres. Still, a move or two and you could see San Diego challenge for a playoff berth.


Los Angeles. Shawn made the playoffs in 2007, fell just shy in 2008 and then laid an egg in 2009 with '09 being a rebuilding year. Shawn is sitting on a goldmine of prospects with Heyward, LaPorta, Martin Perez, Fernando Martinez, Aaron Crow, Pollack and Parker leading the way there. The Dodgers also have some legitimate MLB talent with Chris Carpenter, Ted Lilly, Soria, Hunter, Konerko and Reynolds. If Volquez comes back in June then the Dodgers will have a pretty good rotation. LA needs a bat or two to contend but they certainly have the ammo to make that happen. If Shawn goes ahead and puts a bunch of the prospects on the table, LA could easily vault up this list which is why this team is maybe the most dangerous dark horse.


Colorado. Levine dodged his way out of the NL Central last offseason, leaving Chorzio and the other sausages behind. The Rockies looked to be headed to the post season in 2009 but instead went to game 163 before losing to Nils' Giants who caught fire and went to the World Series. The Rockies set the IBC team record for slugging percentage last year and will have to do more of the same to contend this year. Lackey leads the rotation with Marquis, McCarthy and Porcello behind him. Respectable. The offense has Votto, VMart, Quentin, Dye, Furcal and Phillips- all pretty good if not great hitters. The defense might be a problem with Quentin and Dye on the corners in the outfield and the bullpen is a mess after the clock struck midnight and Lidge returned to his old tricks last year. The Rocks could make some noise, but it would have to be at the expense of some of their young players (Wallace) and if not at the expense of some of their strengths already. It will be an interesting year in '10 for the Rockies, but unless they make some moves, I don't see them contending heavily in 2010.

The In Between
Tier 5 New York

New York. John entered the minidraft this past offseason and came away with two real nice prizes in Wright and Ichiro. After that, the team looks strikingly similar to the one he had in 2009. John has never been one to rebuild and this could be a year where he's forced to with three legitimate pennant contenders above him. Maine, Kuo, Rzepcynski and Hellickson are all nice arms, but they're not the type of arms that are going to win pennants on their own. The Mets have a lot of solid players that can be of use to a contending team - whether thats the Mets themselves after a few moves or whether those players are helping a different team, so there is talent and room to work in New York, but this team doesn't quite have an identity yet. I can't classify them as rebuilding and I can't classify them as contending yet either.


The Rebuilding
Tier 6 Houston, Milwaukee, Atlanta

Houston. The Astros have some pretty good if not excellent players in Adrian Gonzalez and Billignsley. Blanks, Kendrick, Bard, Buchholz and Aybar are all assets to have. The problem in Houston is that they're in the NL Central with Pittsburgh, St. Louis et al in town. The Astros have some pretty good prospects as well in Snider, Brown, de los Santos and Gordon. They have some projects in Hochevar and Jackson. All in all, the roster is talented for sure but as it is it will be nearly impossible for Houston to make a playoff run in 2010 unless something drastic happens. If Lape decides to blow the whole thing up there is certainly enough talent to build a contender, and if he decides to rebuild, there's certainly enough talent to make this a very legitimate rebuilding project.

Milwaukee. The Good: Ben won the Strasburg sweepstakes. The Bad: He, like the Astros, are in the NL Central. Ben has done an excellent job turning Degan's old roster into a young and talented one. Strasburg, Hicks, Revere, Desme and Taylor are all excellent prospects. Volstad, Cueto, Harang are talented arms to go along with Strasburg of course. The problem with young players as anybody who has rebuilt is that they have warts and will take time before they contribute at the MLB and IBC level. Still, Milwaukee has a very talented roster. Ben has the ammo to acquire all sorts of players, but its unlikely that they will be able to factor in to the playoff picture in 2010. 2011 though, with the right progress, could be a different story.

Atlanta. I'll be shocked if there's a worse team in 2010 than the Braves. There is some MLB talent- Morneau, Hamilton, Kazmir and Slowey but that's where it about ends as far as MLB players really go. Alex Gordon needs to get it together and Travis Hafner has no business being on an NL Roster. The future could be pretty bright for the Braves though. Maybin, Poreda, Chapman, Matzek and Alonso headline the farm system. If Kazmir is like the second half Kazmir then he has a legitimate top of the rotation pitcher. As with any rebuilding project, a lot depends on players hitting their floor as well as their ceiling, but by 2012 the Braves could very well be pretty dangerous. If Brandon decides to take the opposite route, he could compete in 2011 by trading off some of those prized prospects. Either way, smart money is on the Braves picking first for the 2010 draft.

[Cardinals]

I added extra tiers for the NL because I feel like it warrants it. I think the NL on a whole is a much better league than the AL right now, of course things change, but as it stands the NL is stronger and I do think that there is clearly a bit of a divide between the light and dark horses- which is why I did that. In the AL I don't really see any of that, but the AL has more titles than the NL. Hopefully that begins to change this year with Pitt bringing home some hardware.

[Mets]

As always, I think these are fair and reasonable assessments. Great job.

[Royals]

Gotta say that with Nils having made the WS this season combined with the moves he's made this offseason, he would have to be the favorite in my eyes.

[Pirates]

Even though JP has a better rotation, lineup and bullpen?

[Royals]

Even though JP has a better rotation, lineup and bullpen?

JP may have the better team on paper, but 4 points stand out to me that weren't mentioned.
1. Nils made the WS in 2009
2. Nils has made probably the best moves of the offseason
3. NIls has arguably an easier path to the playoffs
4. Nils has a distinct knack for getting to the IBC World Series on a regular basis, 4 trips to the IBC WS out of 5 trips to the playoffs. He's the Anti-JB and IMO is the most likely GM in the league to make it to the World Series.

[Cardinals]

Even though JP has a better rotation, lineup and bullpen?

4 points stand out to me that weren't mentioned.
1. Nils made the WS in 2009

San Francisco. The Giants went back to the WS last year and lost...again. But hey, they got there.

It would be nice if you read these before commenting.

[Pirates]

1. That may be true, but his lineup is significantly worse than last year. Just because you are the defending league champion doesn't automatically mean you are the favorite in the following year.
2. Again the best offseason moves doesn't mean he has the best team.
3. I'm not sure how he has a easier lineup because if I recall it took him 163 games to make the playoffs last year, where JP had it wrapped it at the end of July. He also has 2 much weaker teams in the central than we do in the West.
4. We will see.

[Cardinals]

As always, I think these are fair and reasonable assessments. Great job.

Thanks, I try to be fair. Probably a little biased towards myself but I think that balances out since I'm usually very harsh on my team from my own mindset which is why I make so many moves. Always room for improvement.

[Royals]

1. That may be true, but his lineup is significantly worse than last year. Just because you are the defending league champion doesn't automatically mean you are the favorite in the following year.
2. Again the best offseason moves doesn't mean he has the best team.
3. I'm not sure how he has a easier lineup because if I recall it took him 163 games to make the playoffs last year, where JP had it wrapped it at the end of July. He also has 2 much weaker teams in the central than we do in the West.
4. We will see.

Nils was also crushed by injury and essentially packed it in to rebuild for next season before reversing course again. If he hadn't have done that, he could have sewn the division up much, much faster.

[Cardinals]

Gotta say that with Nils having made the WS this season combined with the moves he's made this offseason, he would have to be the favorite in my eyes.