IBC

Looks like I'll be getting a close up look (quite literally) at Angel Villalona, Madison Bumgarner, and the rest of the Cal league gang, I was just offered a job running a camera for the San Jose Giants at home games this year. I'm not sure video production is the direction I want to go, but this gets me hooked in to Comcast Sports Net with some growth opportunities there and an in with the rest of the teams around here. If anyone looks like they're blowing up the Cal league, I'll sign them and then let you know...

Athletics wrote:Looks like I'll be getting a close up look (quite literally) at Angel Villalona, Madison Bumgarner, and the rest of the Cal league gang, I was just offered a job running a camera for the San Jose Giants at home games this year. I'm not sure video production is the direction I want to go, but this gets me hooked in to Comcast Sports Net with some growth opportunities there and an in with the rest of the teams around here. If anyone looks like they're blowing up the Cal league, I'll sign them and then let you know...

Its the Cal League........everyone should look like they are blowing up there.

Athletics wrote:Looks like I'll be getting a close up look (quite literally) at Angel Villalona, Madison Bumgarner, and the rest of the Cal league gang, I was just offered a job running a camera for the San Jose Giants at home games this year. I'm not sure video production is the direction I want to go, but this gets me hooked in to Comcast Sports Net with some growth opportunities there and an in with the rest of the teams around here. If anyone looks like they're blowing up the Cal league, I'll sign them and then let you know...

That should be a fun place to be this spring. Noonan, those two, Scott Barnes, Waldis Joaquin, maybe Gillaspie, and maybe even a month or two of Buster Posey, plus the rest of the Cal League.

Yea, only bummer is I have to emotionally prepare myself to watch Beavan blow everyone away...

Beavan, Main, Smoak, Engel Beltre, Tim Murphy, Kennil Gomez for Bakersfield's last Texas club. Not as much depth of positional talent as in previous years, but at least until Main and Smoak (and maybe Beavan) move to AA they should have a three or so top 100 type talents on the field a good portion of the time.

Any chance we get to see Robbie Ross make it that far?

Pretty low. He'll probably open in Hickory rather than Spokane, but he'll also probably get a bit of a late start, like Kiker and Beavan. And his innings will probably be limited enough that he'd really have to dominate to warrant a move to High A quickly enough.

If Smoak carries over his ST, he won't be at A+ for long.

JP and I argued about this and I'm sure the rest of you will dump on me too, but I think Smoak ends up having a better bat than Pedro Alvarez, and if Alvarez can't stick at 3rd then Smoak is better.

Athletics wrote:JP and I argued about this and I'm sure the rest of you will dump on me too, but I think Smoak ends up having a better bat than Pedro Alvarez, and if Alvarez can't stick at 3rd then Smoak is better.

I'll agree with you...I'm not a huge Alvarez fan

Me either.

Ditto.

Same here.

Too much Alvarez doubt here with you guys. I'm not sure how this guy became underrated.

Throw a hissy fit over a couple hundred grand to soothe your agents ego, and then show up to your first minicamp woefully out of shape, on top of a power sapping broken wrist in his last year in college and the questions start.

I guess since I've got Alvarez I should be the one to watch his back. Also, with rosters frozen indefinitely I'm bored and we could use a little baseball related banter.

I don't think anyone believes Alvarez's contract snafu will have any impact on his pro career. Alvarez and Smoak should start at the same level this year, project to arrive in the bigs about the same time, and I'm not giving Smoak any extra credit for 56 ABs at low A as a 21 year old.

Pedro was out of shape for instructs but was in excellent shape for ST.

Hamate breaks are not un-common and recovery is known to sap power for pretty much a full college season. For this reason here's Alvarez's stats without what I consider a lost year.

College Smoak -- .333/.449/.656, 195 G, 53 2B, 62 HR, 2 SB, 151 BB/ 101 K
Hamate Alvarez - .359/.463/.679, 130 G, 36 2B, 40 HR, 13 SB, 98 BB/ 127 K

Now Smoak. Good defender, excellent eye, excellent power. Unfortunately, already limited to 1B as a 22 yo due to poor athleticism. Baseball cube rates his speed as a 1 on a scale of 1-100. A dude who's already a base clogger at that age can often see their doubles dry up prematurely as they age. Smoak has an excellent walk rate, but thats an 'old' player skill and one of the tools that theoretically can improve in players as they gain experience. Also since Smoak is from SC he probably played a lot more baseball growing up than Alvarez did growing up in the cold streets of NY which is why he seems more polished at the same age.

Goldstein thinks Alvarez can stay at third but even if he can't, moving him directly to 1B is unlikely as his bat will be ready in 2010 but LaRoche will still be at 1B. LF or RF are more likely if he has to move ala Braun.

Tango Tiger has the most commonly accepted set of positional adjustments. A 1B is adjusted -12.5 runs, a 3B +2.5 runs, and a RF/LF -7.5 runs. So if you've got a 1B and a 3B that have the exact same run production(bat), the 3B will be worth 15 runs or 1.5 wins more than the 1B. Smoak has to have a clearly superior bat to be as valuable as Alvarez if he can stay at 3B. He also has to be 5 runs better than Alvarez just to be equal if Pedro moves to an outfield corner.

So basically for Smoak to be more valuable than Alvarez, he has to show he's not a finished product offensively and improve enough to have a better bat and have Alvarez fail at both 3B and OF. That's quite a bit to assume.

Anyone got anything more than a gut feeling why these two things will occur?

So.. who would you take today? Pedro or Smoak?