IBC Red Sox Top 10 prospects

[Royals]

When producing these rankings I went on a mix of positional value (i.e. scarcity and team need), potential and likelihood of reaching that potential.

1. Carlos Santana C — Why would you deal off a guy like Victor Martinez, even if he had a tough season? Well, if you felt like you were getting the NEXT Victor Martinez, that would be a good start. A converted OFer, Santana has taken to catching very well and the Indians practically stole him from the Dodgers. He has a bit further to go to get to the bigs than Bowden does, but his extremely high ceiling puts him on top. Kelly Shoppach’s fluke 2008 isn’t likely to stand in the way once he’s ready, Vmart’s status, however, might.

2. Michael Bowden RHP — Bowden is close to the perfect mix of the three variable I mentioned above. He’s a starting pitcher (that most valued of assets), he spent most of the season at AAA, with a brief cameo in Boston, and he simply dominated the level with a better than 4:1 k/bb ratio, sub 1 WHIP and better than 8k/9 in 144ip. Bowden has the potential to be an above average #2 SP, though it’s more likely that he’ll be a very good #3 type. Oh, and he was just 21 yrs old this season.

3. Josh Reddick RF — Going into last season, Reddick was seen as something of a poor man’s Ryan Kalish, which was a bit unfair since JR is a potential 5 tool player in his own right. One season later, it’s Reddick who is on top and eyeing the RF job which will inevitably (if only temporarily) become available when JD Drew hurts… well, something.

4. Angel Salome C — I’ve had Salome for ages (at least it seems that way) and love his bat. He’s not impressive as a defender, but should be able to stick behind the plate. He’s built like a brick wall and packs a ton of power into a fairly small frame.

5. Ryan Tucker RHP —Tucker is a kid with a ton of talent, he can brush up close to 100 at times, but who is blocked both by a full rotation and his own inconsistencies. Or, rather, tendencies. He falls in love with his fastball at times. He’s a smart kid though and can see which way the wind blows so he actually requested a move to the bullpen. His high heat combined with a slider that is very good, though sometimes inconsistent, could make him quite a force in relief.

6. Casey Kelly RHP/SS — While Kelly thinks of himself as a SS, he is seen by the Sox as a pitcher. They rated him the top HS arm in the draft with a plus fastball and plus curve. The plan currently seems to be to have him pitch until he reaches his innings limit for the season, then play SS from there on out with the hope he realizes he can’t hit well enough to stick in the lineup.

7. Anthony Hewitt SS — Hewitt is more likely to wind up at 3b or in CF, but he is a truly amazing athlete, drawing comparisons to Bo Jackson and prompting scouts to say that the term ceiling doesn’t apply to him. Philly believes he has enough power in his bat to produce 30-35 hr’s even if he only hits .250. The only problem is he is currently far more of an athlete than a baseball player.

8. Yorman Rodriguez CF — Anthony Gose filled this spot for most of the time I’ve worked on this list but as I was wrapping it up, I just couldn’t shake the feeling that I was overlooking something. Then I realized I hadn’t even looked at Yorman for the list. Hewitt and Rodriguez are really 7a and 7b. Rodriguez has a plus-plus arm, power and speed. Hewitt was called the toolsiest player in the draft, YR was the toolsiest 2008 international signing. He’s a spectacular athlete who has drawn comparisons to Carlos Beltran with Miguel Cabrera power. As a 17yr old, it will be several years before we find out if he’s worth the hype.

9. Yamaico Navarro SS — While Hewitt is unlikely to remain at SS barring major defensive improvement, Navarro is a legit shortstop defensively and should have the bat to stick. 2008 was a real breakthrough for him and 2009 may see him start out at AA.

10. Thomas Diamond RHP — Oh how the mighty have fallen… Diamond is someone I’ve liked for a long time but he has struggled a lot with injuries the last two years. Formerly the #1 prospect in the Rangers organization, his stock fell so far that he was dropped in the IBC for a 5th round draft pick. He’s still throwing 95 with a very good changeup, so a move to the pen could be in his future and could very well mitigate his injury issues. A lot of IBCers are down on him, but I really like his potential to turn things around this year and if he doesn’t, it’s not like he cost me anything to acquire.

A few random thoughts:
Not surprisingly I’ve got a ton of Red Sox prospects (4 of their top 10), which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, especially since they have a pretty solid farm system. I also have quite a few Reds and Phillies prospects that I really like, although only one from each team made the list.

I like the balance of guys ready to come up and guys with a long timeline, and there are a lot more tools players lower down the list.

I like the positional balance for the most part, though I always wish there were more SP prospects. Diamond and Tucker could both very well end up in the bullpen, but it’s not impossible that either (or both) remains in the rotation.

If Yadel Marti signs, he’ll immediately vault to the upper tier of this list, probably at #3 based on early reports. However, the likelihood of him signing by opening day is very slim.