IBC Marlins Top 25 Players - Dec. 2008

[Orioles]

Trading in this league reminds me of hooking up with pudgy irish-catholic chicks at Gtown. It was like a one-armed drunken karate fight in total darkness where no one wins.

As much as I enjoy all the intrigue and excitement of trying to puzzle out a trade partner's primary team needs from a 4-letter response to an offer (I guess "y-o-u" makes it 7-letters), it's not the most efficient way to find common ground for a deal. In the spirit of the holiday season (and because I've been looking at the same core roster for a few years now) the Marlins will pierce the veil of secrecy and hopefully encourage a few offers/trade inquiries. Below I'll list the IBC Marlins Top 25 Players, listed in the particular order of their value to me in trade today.

A few things:

• No real formula here. Among the factors considered: Age; performance over the past 3-seasons; 2008 performance; positional scarcity; expected 2009 MLB on-field impact (if any); expected DMB projection (if any); expected trade value of a prospect based on 2008 stats, org./minor lg. player rankings, scouting reports, etc.
• This list doesn't really consider team positional depth, but does factor in league-wide positional scarcity.
• Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Quality SP are solid gold. Arms w/ 1-3 MLB SP ceilings or closer stuff (at worst) are always of interest to me.

I like my team. I think it's a good team. Still, a GM with no hardware can't talk too much junk (sadly, 1 NLE, 0 postseason W, 0 IBC WS doesn't cut it). However, being the pompous windbag that I am, I'll say I'd put my roster somewhere amongst the league's top third. There are certainly a few whose 1-25 talent I like better than my own, and ones deeper 1 to 50, but I dig my roster, so I'm not looking to give away #25, much less #48 (ok, sometimes I'm willing to give away 49-50 when I need the roster space for someone better). Most of the guys I drop go right to the top of my "Add" list, where I pray they don't get "Smolinski'd" away by some jerk with two first names.

Extremely bored + too hung over to go out anywhere last night = overanalysis of DMB team and desire to make unnecessary trades. Here are my best 25 in order, five at a time. Hopefully this list gets some trade wheels turning:


Marlins' Top 25 Players


1. SP Justin Verlander, R (25)

2. SS Troy Tulowitzki, R (24)

3. SP Ben Sheets, R (30)

4. 1B David Ortiz, L (33)

5. C Geovany Soto, R (25)

6. 2B Ian Kinsler, R (26)

7. 3B Aramis Ramirez, R (30)

8. LF Carl Crawford, L (26)

9. CF Hunter Pence, R (25)

10. SP Dustin McGowan, R (26)

11. SP Jhoulys Chacin, R (20)

12. SP Adam Miller, R (24)

13. SP Gio Gonzalez, L (23)

14. SS Wilmer Flores, R (17) [2007 Draft]

15. C J. P. Arencibia, R (22) [2007 Draft]

16. SP Brett Hunter, R (21) [2008 Draft]

17. SP Micah Owings, R (26)

18. SP Daniel Schlereth, L (22) [2008 Draft]

19. OF Hideki Matsui, L (34)

20. SP Zach Duke, L (25)

21. CF Justin Maxwell, R (25)

22. SP Joe Savery, R (23) [2007 Draft]

23. UT Jerry Hairston, Jr., R (32)

24. SP Cesar Valdez, R (23)

25. RP Chris Ray, R (26)




Just missed...

SP Dillon Gee, R (22) [2007 Draft]
... BA Best Change, Best Control in NYM system; Sickels NYM #12 (C+); excellent command, will start 09 at AA.

CF Scott Hairston, R (28)
... 17 HR in limited ABs in 2008; still looking for everyday ABs to see what kind of power numbers he can post over a full season; enters 2009 as Padres starting CF

LF Joe Mather, R (26)
... .303/.395/.630 at AAA in 08; showed power in MLB debut (.478 SLG) but needs to improve averages across the board if given reg. ABs

2B Scott Sizemore, R (23)
... BA DET #7 Prospect; solid bat has drawn Polanco comps; will begin 09 at AA, but also plays SS and could help DET infield thin on bats

SP Mason Tobin, R (21) [2007 Draft]
... BA LAA #10; Fastball touches 97 mph w/ heavy sink; pitched well at LoA before injury; expected full strength to begin 09 at Hi A.

[Orioles]

IBC Florida Marlins Top 25 Players
(updated 12/23/08)




1. SP_Justin Verlander

Throws: R, Age: 25, Acquired: Drafted 2005 (1st rd., 4th pick)



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2. SS_Troy Tulowitzki

Bats: R, Age: 24, Acquired: 2007 Trade (Houston/Pittsburgh)



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3. SP_Ben Sheets

Bats: L, Age: 33, Acquired: (Milwaukee) 2004 New GM Draft



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4. 1B_David Ortiz

Bats: L, Age: 33, Acquired: (Milwaukee) 2004 New GM Draft


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5. C_Geovany Soto

Bats: R, Age: 25, Acquired: 2008 Trade (Cleveland)



2008/2009 Rankings/Awards:
«◊» 2008 NL Rookie of the Year «◊»
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6. 2B_Ian Kinsler

Bats: R, Age: 26, Acquired: Drafted 2004


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7. 3B_Aramis Ramirez

Bats: R, Age: 30, Acquired: Trade 2004


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8. LF_Carl Crawford

Bats: L, Age: 27, Acquired: Drafted 2004 (Milwaukee) New GM Draft



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9. CF_Hunter Pence

Bats: R, Age: 25, Acquired: 2007 Trade (Houston/Pittsburgh)


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10. SP_Dustin McGowan

Throws: R, Age: 26, Acquired: 2008 Trade (Baltimore)
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11. SP_Jhoulys Chacin

Throws: R, Age: 20, Acquired: Signed 2007 (FA)

2008 Stats (Lo A/Hi A): 28 GS, 18-3, 2.03 ERA/1.04 WHIP, 178.0 IP, 143 H, 6 HR, 160 K/ 42 BB, 2.83 GB/FB, .221 BAA

Venezuelan

2008/2009 Rankings/Awards: BP COL #2 Prospect(*****); J. Sickels' COL #2 Prospect (B+); BA Minor League All-Star (1st team); BA Low-A Classification All-Star

BA SAL (Lo A) TOP 20

3. Mike Stanton, of, Greensboro (Marlins)
4. Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Asheville (Rockies)
5. Matt Dominguez, 3b, Greensboro (Marlins)

BA CAL League (Hi A) TOP 20

4. Brett Anderson, lhp, Stockton (Athletics)
5. Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Modesto (Rockies)
6. Tim Alderson, rhp, San Jose (Giants)

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12. SP_Adam Miller

Throws: R, Age: 24, Acquired: Drafted 2004 (2nd Rd., 37th pick)


2008/2009 Rankings/Awards: BA CLE #4 Prospect; MiLB.com #41 Overall Prospect (J. Mayo)
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13. SP_Gio Gonzalez

Throws: L, Age: 23, Acquired: Drafted 2005 (3rd Rd., 64th pick)



2008/2009 Rankings/Awards: BA OAK #7 Prospect; J. Sickels' OAK #4 Prospect (B)

BA PCL (AAA) TOP 20

7. Ian Stewart, 3b, Colorado Springs (Rockies)
8. Gio Gonzalez, lhp, Sacramento (Athletics)
9. Andy LaRoche, 3b, Las Vegas (Dodgers)

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14. SS_Wilmer Flores

Bats: R, Age: 17, Acquired: Drafted 2007 (6th Rd, pick 322)


2008/2009 Rankings/Awards: BA NYM #2 Prospect; J. Sickels NYM #1 Prospect (B+); BP NYM #2 Prospect[/i] (****); BA Rookie-level Classification All-Star

BA APP League (Rookie-level) Top 20

1. Tim Beckham, ss, Princeton Devil Rays
2. Wilmer Flores, ss, Kingsport Mets
3. Matt Moore, lhp, Princeton Devil Rays

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15. C__J. P. Arencibia

Bats: R, Age: 22, Acquired: Drafted 2007 (3rd Rd., Pk. 82 overall)

With all of the hype over the wave of talented catchers selected in the first round of this year's draft - who joined a growing and talented list of developing backstops (such top drafted 07 C, Matt Weiters) - it's easy to overlook 2007 Blue Jays' first-rounder J. P. Arencibia's ascension to the ranks of elite C prospect. Considered a potential top-10 pick entering the year at Tennessee, injuries slowed Arencibia's season and caused his pre-draft stock to take a hit. After an unspectacular but promising pro debut in 2007, Arencibia put on a power display in 2008, showing plus power to all fields while slugging a combined 27 HR in 126 G between the Hi A FSL and AA Eastern League. Along the way, Arencibia earned high marks for his arm-strength, accuracy throwing out base-stealers, and improved handling of pitching staffs/game-calling duties.

While his solid receiving skills make him a near-lock to remain behind the plate, it's Arencibia's light-tower power that will have the Blue Jays considering a 2009 MLB debut for their catcher-of-the-future. A strong AFL and solid 09 start might be all the Jays' need to unleash the RH slugger's bat at Rogers Centre.

Arencibia does need to work on his often too-aggressive offensive approach, as his low BB totals and OBP need to rise, but as with many young hitters, his selectivity should improve as he faces more and better pitching. Even if his poor plate discipline results in lower batting averages early in his career, Arencibia has elite power for the position and an excellent chance of becoming an average to above average defensive catcher, with an elite power bat.

2008/2009 Rankings/Awards: BA TOR #2 Prospect; J. Sickels TOR #4 Prospect (B-)

BA FSL (Hi A) TOP 20

1. Rick Porcello, rhp, Lakeland (Tigers)
2. J.P. Arencibia, c, Dunedin (Blue Jays)
3. Logan Morrison, 1b, Jupiter (Marlins)

BA EAS (AA) TOP 20

7. Fernando Martinez, of, Binghamton (Mets)
8. J.P. Arencibia, c, New Hampshire (Blue Jays)
9. Daniel Bard, rhp, Portland (Red Sox)

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16. SP_Brett Hunter

Throws: R, Age: 21, Acquired: Drafted 2008 (2nd Rd, 55th overall, Pepperdine)

(2008 Draft Class to be reviewed once all the selections are in)

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17. SP_Micah Owings

Bats/Throws: R/R, Age: 26, Acquired: Drafted 2005 (2nd Rd. - #1 BAL draft choice)

Not sure exactly how Micah Owings will be valuable to the Marlins in 2009, but he will definitely have a role to play. In 2008, Owings could have been the team MVP. The young RHP posted a respectable 4.57 ERA and 8 W's in 106.1 IP while filling in for several injured Florida SP (15 GS), and holding down RH setup and long-relief roles when the bullpen was thin (17 relief appearances). His work at the dish as a PH, and filling in for the injured Ortiz at DH/1B during interleague play might have been more impressive than any of his pitching performances, though.

Owings appeared as a DH, pinch-hitter, and even started six games at 1B, hitting in the middle of the order. His 2008 IBC batting line: 98 G, 123 AB, .309/.344/642, .986 OPS, 20 R, 9 HR, 25 RBI. Career averages of .319/.355/.552, .907 OPS in 116 ABs will hopefully be enough to earn Owings another nice batting projection in 09, giving the Marlins the advantage of having a DH-quality bat whenever he's on the hill. Not having to pinch hit for Owings in late game situations makes him a nice weapon as a PH/RH SU arm if he doesn't project well enough as a SP to make the rotation.
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18. SP_Daniel Schlereth

Throws: L, Age: 22, Acquired: Drafted 2008 (1st Rd, 25th Pick.)

(2008 Draft Class to be reviewed once all the selections are in)

2008/2009 Rankings/Awards, etc.: BP ARI #2 prospect (****); J. Sickels' #2 Prospect (B)
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19. OF_Hideki Matsui

Bats: L, Age: 34, Acquired: Drafted (MIL) in 2004 New GM draft

Godzilla makes the list because he's a professional hitter, and a threat to scream a double down the line every time he steps to the plate. Kills righties and gets on base at a good enough clip against LHP to make him an everyday bat. His three-year splits (.291/.372/.469, .841 OPS) nearly match his career line (.295/.371/.478, .849 OPS), and if more time in the DH role keeps him healthy, there's no reason not to expect 20+ HR and an .850+ OPS. The bad news for the Marlins is that the Fish need his LH stick in the lineup, but will have to lean heavily on defensive replacements late in close games. Bill James 09 Projection for Matsui is conservative: 125 G, 466 AB, .288/.370/.457, .827 OPS, 17 HR, 27 2B. Unless he's not completely healthy, I wouldn't be surprised by something closer to his 2007 season: 135-145 G, .285/.360/.490, .850 OPS, 20 HR, 90 RBI. It depends to some extent on how the Yankees' lineup shakes out. Expect Matsui to be a productive offensive player for several more seasons, though should he become a full-time DH this year, the Marlins will likely be looking to deal him to an AL team.
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20. SP_Zach Duke

Throws: L, Age: 25, Acquired: Drafted (as MIL) in minor league portion of 2004 New GM draft

Zach Duke was a promising young lefty with great command, and a breaking pitch he could get LH hitters to swing and miss at. Duke put up gaudy minor league totals (2.37/1.10 in 474.0 IP in the minors) and seemed to back them up with an outstanding MLB debut over a half-season with the Buccos at age 22 in '05 (14 GS, 84.0 IP, 1.81/1.20). He followed it up with a so-so sophomore effort, then started getting hit. A lot. Any season would have been an improvement on Duke's awful '07 (to be fair, the ERA numbers are inflated by some bad luck and bad D, but he was still pretty bad), and 08 was just that - any season. The bad news is he hasn't added to his arsenal enough, or learned to avoid enough major league bats to consistently win games. Doesn't help that his organization sucks either. Maybe a change-of-scenery guy in MLB as he reaches 26-28?

The good news is that despite all the MLB service time, Duke's still just 25 years old, so there's still time for something to click, or for the right coach to make an adjustment or teach him a pitch that makes him a reliable mid-rotation LH SP. In the meantime, he'll provide the Marlins w/ SP depth and probably pitch in a long-relief role.
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21. CF_Justin Maxwell

Bats: R, Age: 25, Acquired: Signed May 2007

Maxwell has a rare power/speed combo that already earned him his MLB debut after hitting 27 HR and swiping 35 bags across two minor league levels in 2007. However, nagging injuries of one sort or another always seem to derail the CF just as he's gaining steam and ready to climb the ladder. Maxwell's injury woes led one prospect maven to dub him "the Adam Miller of positional prospects." The OF returned to action this winter in Puerto Rico, hoping to be ready to earn a spot with the Nationals at Spring Training. Maxwell earned a good enough projection last season to log a few games in the Florida OF, and could make the IBC Marlins as a pinch-runner/4th OF.

2008/2009 Rankings/Awards, etc.: Sickels WAS #7 prospect (C+)
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22. SP_Joe Savery

Throws: L, Age: 23, Acquired: Drafted 2007 (1st Rd., Rice)

The IBC Marlins' first-round pick a year ago (19th overall), Savery impressed in a brief pro debut, then looked dominant in a subsequent AFL stint. Unfortunately, Savery failed to live up to lofty expectations in 2008, proving surprisingly hittable at times in the FSL this season. The Fish still believe in the arm, and look for a strong first half of 2009. However, if Savery comes out of the gate stumbling, the organization might need to re-evaluate the southpaw's future with the team.

2008/2009 Rankings/Awards, etc.: Sickels PHI #9 (C+); BP PHI #14 (NR/HM)
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23. UT_Jerry Hairston, Jr.

Bats: R, Age: 32, Acquired: Signed June 2008

Jerry Hairston, Jr. has been an on-again/off-again member of the IBC Marlins through past few seasons, typically serving as a defensive replacement or a source of speed off of the bench. However, Hairston has likely earned a more permanent spot on the roster after posting the best offensive numbers of his career in 80 G for the Reds in 2008. His 261 AB line of .326/.384/.487, .871 OPS, could boost his offensive projections enough to make him a solid starting MI. Though unlikely to repeat that performance at the plate in 2009, Hairston Jr.'s decent bat and defensive versatility (40 or more innings at each of 2B/SS/LF/CF/RF in 2008) combine to make him valuable asset for the Marlins in a utility role, ready to step in immediately should an IF spend time on the DL. Besides, what clubhouse wouldn't enjoy the madcap antics of the brothers Hairston?
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24. SP_Cesar Valdez

Throws: R, Age: 23, Acquired: Created/Signed June 2008

Dominican RHP Cesar Valdez emerged on the prospect scene in 2008 by maintaining his solid ERA, GB and K/BB ratios from the Hi A California league after a call-up to the AA Southern League. Valdez doesn't have electric stuff, but knows how to throw strikes and uses his secondary offerings effectively. Likely to see significant time at AAA in 2009, Valdez has a chance to become an effective middle-of-the-rotation SP, and could see the big leagues by season's end.

2008/2009 Rankings/Awards, etc.: BP ARI #5 prospect (***); J. ickels' ARI #4 Prospect (B-)
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25. RP_Chris Ray

Throws: R, Age: 26, Acquired: 2008 Trade (SF Giants)

In 2006 a 24-year old Chris Ray established himself as an up-and-coming young closer with a 33-save, 66.0 IP, 2.73/1.09 campaign for the Orioles. Ray struggled through injuries the following season, which ended with Tommy John surgery. The young stopper pitched well enough in the minors following an August return that the O's have suggested he might share closing duties with incumbent George Sherrill. If Ray comes back healthy, he would offer some welcome stability at the back of a Marlin bullpen that will be happy not to ever have to watch another Trevor Hoffman vs. LH batter 9th inning trainwreck again. Ray sneaks into the back of the top 25 based on his relatively young age, 3.19/1.19 career averages in 150 IP, and the potential impact he could have on the Florida bullpen over the next several seasons.
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Ray is the only RP on this list, and sits at #25. He could move up the list quickly depending on his projection, but I probably ranked him in part just b/c I hate paying for bullpen so much that I had to justify giving up a prospect likely to be a solid everyday MI for him. As for that deal, Coghlan probably would have slotted in at #19, 6 spots ahead of Ray. Hate to overpay for something so shaky as a pen arm coming off of TJ, but Ray was worth the risk, and Mike Adams (not in the top 25) was decent insurance after his 2.48/1.04 in 65+ IP in 2008. Brad Emaus, a nice MI prospect also dealt to SF wouldn't have made my top 25, but has received comps to both Ty Wigginton and Frank Catalonatto for his bat.

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