Jake's Arbitrary Playoff Preview Part II
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 6:14 pm
Let's get after it again, National League style.
Cincinnati vs. Arizona
Cincinnati Rotation: The best staff in the National League took a big hit when Hong-Chi Kuo (15-1 3.21) went down with some kind of bizarre numbness thing, but Roy Halladay (18-8 3.58), Hiroki Kuroda (17-4 4.09) and Matt Cain (15-5 4.20) are a nice backbone to a playoff rotation. Randy Johnson (2-3 5.09) has been a disappointment, but the wily veteran is still not someone you'd want to face if you have a lefty dependent lineup.
Arizona Rotation: This was the worst staff in the National League or close to it before the acquisitions of Franklin Morales (6-4 3.52) and Joe Blanton (2-3 5.50). Youngsters Manny Parra (13-11 4.53) and Wade Davis (12-7 4.68) round out a rotation with pretty good upside for the future that might be a couple years away from dominating or might fall off the table completely.
Advantage: Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bullpen: The Reds pen is led by K-Rod and no-names Paul Abraham, Javier Lopez, and apparently Vinnie Chulk (who really shouldn't be pitching, he got cut in June), and all of those guys have a better ERA than the venerable Scot Shields (3-3 3.46 5 SV). How crazy is that depth? Now imagine what it would be like with Papelbon back there... Moral of the story, fuck you JB
Arizona Bullpen: It was a bummer to lose Zumaya, who looked like he might be back and might even become a starter with the bullets he was throwing, but now it looks like he might never be healthy again. Bobby Jenks (8-4 3.36 31 SV) is an elite closer, and Brendon Morrow, Bill Bray, and Sean Gallagher round out a solid but unspectacular pen, which will likely be a lot better next year with Joey Devine. Unfortunately solid but unspectacular performance doesn't match the spectacular performance of the no-names above.
Advantage: Cincinnati
Cincinnati Lineup: By far the best offense in the NL, the Reds are led by Ichiro, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, and Vlad Guerrero (the bounty from Papelbon). Late season acquisition Paul Konerko found the hitting stroke that never materialized in Oakland (.930 OPS after the deal), and Miguel Olivo has played way over his head since the injury to Jorge Posada looked like it would put a hole in the lineup. Fortunately for Cincinnati most of his stars aren't in the playoffs, so they won't have a chance to get hurt which will help Nate hide the depth holes in his lineup.
Arizona Lineup: With 890 RS the Diamondbacks were the second best offense in the National League, kind of like Michael Dukakis was the second best presidential candidate in 1988. That being said, there is talent in this lineup in the form of Mark Texeira (1.044 OPS 41 HR), Rickie Weeks (.964 OPS, 28 HR and 18 3B, what the hell?), BJ Upton and Russell Martin. This young lineup is the strength of the team, and they are patient enough to take advantage of the walk tendencies of Matt Cain and to put the ball in play against Kuroda. The future is bright for these Baby Backs, and some day soon it might not be a joke to call them the second best offense.
Advantage: Cincinnati
Prediction: Cincinnati in 3
Florida vs. St. Louis
Florida Rotation: Vacek made the playoffs! Vacek made the playoffs! The bummer is that he can't take injured staff ace Ben Sheets with him. The good news is that Gio Gonzalez (12-6 3.56) and Boof Bonser (13-4 4.68) will provide support to the underachieving Justin Verlander (10-12 4.73), but the depth of the starting pitching is a question mark, and that's not an issue you want to have going into the playoffs.
St. Louis Rotation: The 2007 champs have brought a new face to the rotation this year, gone are the big names like Roy Oswalt and Freddy Garcia, and in their place we find Zach Greinke (10-7 4.05), Adam Wainwright (3-3 3.63), Justin Hampson (8-4 3.10), and Todd Wellemeyer (7-5 4.01). The name recognition certainly doesn't match teams of the past (though it's definitely better than DiFelice/Mulvey/Mazone/Hardy), but the performance has been terrific, and that's what's important.
Advantage: St. Louis
Florida Bullpen: The great Trevor Hoffman (2-10 32 SV 3.46 ERA) is clearly winding down, though he was also a bit unlikely with a BABIP of .297, much higher than in earlier times in his career. Behind Hoffman is a mish-mash of Jeremy Affeldt (8-2 3.63 2 SV), Justin Miller (10-5 3.75 5 SV) and Micah Owings (8-5 4.57 1 SV) who might also be the best bat off the bench for this team. There is good depth, though no one in the pen has really been lockdown dominating this year.
St. Louis Bullpen: Since trading Jason Isringhausen the Cardinals haven't had a real closer emerge. The best pitcher this year has been Scott Downs (4-2 3.67 6 SV), with Brandon League (5-3 3.96 1 SV) following him up. Matt Capps, Frank Francisco, and Joseph Smith all provide depth but not dominance.
Advantage: Tie
Florida Lineup: Big Papi (1.211 OPS 39 HR), Hunter Pence (.917 OPS 20 HR) and Aramis Ramirez (.898 OPS 32 HR) form a frightening heart of the order for the Marlins, who also have strong lineup depth with Carl Crawford, Hideki Matsui, and likely rookie of the year Geovany Soto. The middle of the infield has been a major concern, with Troy Tulowitzki (.662 OPS) badly underperforming and no real solution at second base. Backup catcher Raul Casanova (.983 OPS 12 HR) has been a revelation off the bench.
St. Louis Lineup: Pat Burrell (.965 OPS 42 HR), Chase Headley (.907 OPS 18 HR), and Nick Markakis (.837 OPS 29 HR), have paced the Cardinals offense, which has been solid but hasn't mashed. After those three the next best hitter comes from the Reed Johnson, Billy Butler, Rich Aurilia pupuu platter. Carl Crawford, Geovany Soto, and Hideki Matsui or Reed Johnson, Rich Aurilia and Billy Butler? Which trio do you want?
Advantage: Florida
Prediction: St. Louis in 4 games
Cincinnati vs. Arizona
Cincinnati Rotation: The best staff in the National League took a big hit when Hong-Chi Kuo (15-1 3.21) went down with some kind of bizarre numbness thing, but Roy Halladay (18-8 3.58), Hiroki Kuroda (17-4 4.09) and Matt Cain (15-5 4.20) are a nice backbone to a playoff rotation. Randy Johnson (2-3 5.09) has been a disappointment, but the wily veteran is still not someone you'd want to face if you have a lefty dependent lineup.
Arizona Rotation: This was the worst staff in the National League or close to it before the acquisitions of Franklin Morales (6-4 3.52) and Joe Blanton (2-3 5.50). Youngsters Manny Parra (13-11 4.53) and Wade Davis (12-7 4.68) round out a rotation with pretty good upside for the future that might be a couple years away from dominating or might fall off the table completely.
Advantage: Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bullpen: The Reds pen is led by K-Rod and no-names Paul Abraham, Javier Lopez, and apparently Vinnie Chulk (who really shouldn't be pitching, he got cut in June), and all of those guys have a better ERA than the venerable Scot Shields (3-3 3.46 5 SV). How crazy is that depth? Now imagine what it would be like with Papelbon back there... Moral of the story, fuck you JB
Arizona Bullpen: It was a bummer to lose Zumaya, who looked like he might be back and might even become a starter with the bullets he was throwing, but now it looks like he might never be healthy again. Bobby Jenks (8-4 3.36 31 SV) is an elite closer, and Brendon Morrow, Bill Bray, and Sean Gallagher round out a solid but unspectacular pen, which will likely be a lot better next year with Joey Devine. Unfortunately solid but unspectacular performance doesn't match the spectacular performance of the no-names above.
Advantage: Cincinnati
Cincinnati Lineup: By far the best offense in the NL, the Reds are led by Ichiro, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, and Vlad Guerrero (the bounty from Papelbon). Late season acquisition Paul Konerko found the hitting stroke that never materialized in Oakland (.930 OPS after the deal), and Miguel Olivo has played way over his head since the injury to Jorge Posada looked like it would put a hole in the lineup. Fortunately for Cincinnati most of his stars aren't in the playoffs, so they won't have a chance to get hurt which will help Nate hide the depth holes in his lineup.
Arizona Lineup: With 890 RS the Diamondbacks were the second best offense in the National League, kind of like Michael Dukakis was the second best presidential candidate in 1988. That being said, there is talent in this lineup in the form of Mark Texeira (1.044 OPS 41 HR), Rickie Weeks (.964 OPS, 28 HR and 18 3B, what the hell?), BJ Upton and Russell Martin. This young lineup is the strength of the team, and they are patient enough to take advantage of the walk tendencies of Matt Cain and to put the ball in play against Kuroda. The future is bright for these Baby Backs, and some day soon it might not be a joke to call them the second best offense.
Advantage: Cincinnati
Prediction: Cincinnati in 3
Florida vs. St. Louis
Florida Rotation: Vacek made the playoffs! Vacek made the playoffs! The bummer is that he can't take injured staff ace Ben Sheets with him. The good news is that Gio Gonzalez (12-6 3.56) and Boof Bonser (13-4 4.68) will provide support to the underachieving Justin Verlander (10-12 4.73), but the depth of the starting pitching is a question mark, and that's not an issue you want to have going into the playoffs.
St. Louis Rotation: The 2007 champs have brought a new face to the rotation this year, gone are the big names like Roy Oswalt and Freddy Garcia, and in their place we find Zach Greinke (10-7 4.05), Adam Wainwright (3-3 3.63), Justin Hampson (8-4 3.10), and Todd Wellemeyer (7-5 4.01). The name recognition certainly doesn't match teams of the past (though it's definitely better than DiFelice/Mulvey/Mazone/Hardy), but the performance has been terrific, and that's what's important.
Advantage: St. Louis
Florida Bullpen: The great Trevor Hoffman (2-10 32 SV 3.46 ERA) is clearly winding down, though he was also a bit unlikely with a BABIP of .297, much higher than in earlier times in his career. Behind Hoffman is a mish-mash of Jeremy Affeldt (8-2 3.63 2 SV), Justin Miller (10-5 3.75 5 SV) and Micah Owings (8-5 4.57 1 SV) who might also be the best bat off the bench for this team. There is good depth, though no one in the pen has really been lockdown dominating this year.
St. Louis Bullpen: Since trading Jason Isringhausen the Cardinals haven't had a real closer emerge. The best pitcher this year has been Scott Downs (4-2 3.67 6 SV), with Brandon League (5-3 3.96 1 SV) following him up. Matt Capps, Frank Francisco, and Joseph Smith all provide depth but not dominance.
Advantage: Tie
Florida Lineup: Big Papi (1.211 OPS 39 HR), Hunter Pence (.917 OPS 20 HR) and Aramis Ramirez (.898 OPS 32 HR) form a frightening heart of the order for the Marlins, who also have strong lineup depth with Carl Crawford, Hideki Matsui, and likely rookie of the year Geovany Soto. The middle of the infield has been a major concern, with Troy Tulowitzki (.662 OPS) badly underperforming and no real solution at second base. Backup catcher Raul Casanova (.983 OPS 12 HR) has been a revelation off the bench.
St. Louis Lineup: Pat Burrell (.965 OPS 42 HR), Chase Headley (.907 OPS 18 HR), and Nick Markakis (.837 OPS 29 HR), have paced the Cardinals offense, which has been solid but hasn't mashed. After those three the next best hitter comes from the Reed Johnson, Billy Butler, Rich Aurilia pupuu platter. Carl Crawford, Geovany Soto, and Hideki Matsui or Reed Johnson, Rich Aurilia and Billy Butler? Which trio do you want?
Advantage: Florida
Prediction: St. Louis in 4 games