IBC

This is a first look at the initial 2025 IBC Padres 26 man opening day roster (after recently acquiring Harrison Bader to take over as the primary CF).  A continued emphasis is being placed on the development of a better than average defensive unit, a potentially deep mid-rotation oriented SP and a more balanced offense.  While the first 6 in the batting order are a fun unit, the experience in 2024 shows how just a few injuries can wreak havoc on the best laid plans ... All statistics below are real life 2024 ...

SS - Geraldo Perdomo# .273/.344/.374, 101 OPS+ (388 PA)
LF - Christain Yelich* .315/.406/.504, 11 HR, 21 SB, 151 OPS+ (315 PA)
3B - Austin Riley .256/.322/.461, 19 HR, 115 OPS+ (469 PA)
1B - Christian Walker .251/.335/.468, 26 HR, 115 OPS+ (552 PA)
DH - Kyle Schwarber* .248/.366/.485, 38 HR, 137 OPS+ (692 PA)
.C - Dominic Keegan .285/.371/.435 (442 PA) @ AA
2B - Luis Garcia*  .282/.318/.444, 18 HR, 20 SB, 115 OPS+/ Otto Lopez .270/.313/.377, 20 SB, 87 OPS+ (434 PA) (probable partial platoon)
RF - Will Brennan* .264/.309/.388, 97 OPS+/ Rafael Lantigua.265/.367/.336, 16 SB (521 PA) @ AAA (probable partial platoon)
CF - Harrison Bader .236/.284/.373, 12 HR, 16 SB, 86 OPS+ (437 PA)

.C - Korey Lee .210/.244/.347, 12 HR, 69 OPS+ (394 PA)
UT - Nick Sogard# .273/.326/.325, 82 OPS+ (86 PA) & .283/.390/.446, 13 HR, 10 SB (440 PA) @ AAA or Brooks Baldwin# .211/.250/.316, 62 OPS+ (121 PA) & .324/.391/.460, 17 SB (354 PA) @ AAA/AA
OF - Jacob Melton .253/.310/.426, 15 HR, 30 SB (443 PA) @ AAA/AA or Denzel Clarke .269/.339/.446, 13 HR, 36 SB (431 PA)@ AA

I believe the defense is overall stronger, particularly up the middle.  Definitely should result in fewer total SB but probably a few more total HR ...

As to the pitching ... Potentially a decent starting 4 with Imanaga and Cortes due for solid ZiPS projections - and Morton and Verlander hopefully: (a) both returning, and (b) both getting a "body of work" ZiPS projection better than last year's real life results ...

SP - Shota Imanaga* 2.91 ERA, 174/28 K/BB (173.1 IP) 1.021 WHIP, 137 ERA+
... Charlie Morton 4.19, 167/68 (165.1) 1.325, 99 ERA+
... Nestor Cortes* 3.77, 162/39 (174.1) 1.153, 109 ERA+
... Justin Verlander 5.48, 74/27 (90.1) 1.384, 72 OPS+

Then someone(s) from Jonathan Cannon, Aaron Ashby*, Alex Cobb, Slade Cecconi, Allan Winans, Davis Martin or Mason Adams to be SP #5 and #6 , as well as IL replacement remembering sometimes it is better to be lucky then good ... and it's great when you are both!

Finally the pen - and what a pig pen it is.  Perhaps it will receive help as it did in 2024 when Ashby and his projected ERA+ of 106 didn't play well as a SP but he was solid as a lefty out of the pen.  Will a currently designated SP fall into the role in 2025?  Right now, best guess:

CL - Ryan Fernandez 3.51, 71/37 (66.2) 1.350, 120 ERA+

RHSU - Josh Sborz 3.86, 17/4 (16.1) 1.224, 105 ERA+
... Adam Ottavino 4.34, 70/24 (56.0) 1.286, 91 ERA+

LHSU - Brock Burke* 3.54, 25/9 (20.1) 1.131, 120 ERA+
... Wandy Peralta* 3.99, 22/13 (38.1) 1.200, 104 ERA+

LR -

MU - Erik Swanson 5.03, 37/14 (39.1) 1.271, 81 ERA+

Obviously that pen is a long way from what it will be like a year (or even 6 months) from now ...

C - Dominic 22-Keegan .244/.312/.373, 92 OPS+ (FR @ C) [BP 69/101, BA TAM #16, FG TAM #14, MLB TAM #13, BP TAM #5]
... Hunter Goodman .239/.291/.459, 21 HR, 96 OPS+ (FR @ C, 1B, LF, RF)
... Marco 24-Dinges [MIL]

1B - Christian Walker .232/.317/.445, 26 HR, 113 OPS+ (EX @ 1B)

2B - Luis Garcia* .269/.308/.423, 16 HR, 14 SB, 105 OPS+ (FR @ 2B, SS)
... Otto Lopez .275/.324/.381, 15 SB, 93 OPS+ (VG @ 2B, SS, 3B, AV @ LF, RF, FR @ CF)
... Brooks Baldwin# .248/.300/.370, 10 HR, 14 SB, 88 OPS+ (AV @ 2B, SS, 3B, FR @ LF, RF) [BA CWS #25, BP CWS #18]
... Rikuu 23-Nishida .249/.330/.303, 19 SB, 81 OPS+ (AV @ 2B, AV @ LF) [CWS]

3B - Manny Machado .266/.323/.462, 26 HR, 119 OPS+ (AV @ SS, 3B)
... Lenyn Sosa .247/.282/.384, 14 HR, 88 OPS+ (AV @ 2B, 3B, FR @ SS)
... Kyle 23-Karros .246/.307/.363, 78 OPS+ (AV @ 3B) [BA COL #23, FG COL #38, MLB COL #21, BP COL #14]
... Carson 24-DeMartini* [BA PHI #14, FG PHI #29, MLB PHI #15, BP PHI #11
... Sam 24-Antonacci* [CWS]

SS - Jeremy Pena .257/.307/.388, 15 HR 15 SB, 96 OPS+ (AV @ SS)
... William Bergolla .231/.279/.283, 12 SB, 60 OPS+ (AV @ 2B, FR @ SS) [BA CWS #30, FG CWS #18, MLB CWS #16, BP CWS #24]
... Cristofer Torin [BA ARI #12, FG ARI #27, MLB ARI #14, BP ARI #9]

LF - Tyler O'Neill .250/.333/.481, 24 HR, 131 OPS+ (VG @ LF, RF, AV @ CF)
... Austin Slater .241/.332/.364, 101 OPS+ (AV @ LF, RF, FR @ CF)
... Ethan 23-O'Donnell [BA CIN #20, MLB CIN #18]

CF - Harrison Bader .237/.287/.369, 10 HR, 16 SB, 85 OPS+ (EX @ LF, CF, RF)
... Denzel Clarke .221/.287/.378, 12 HR, 17 SB, 85 OPS+ (AV @ CF, VG @ RF) [BA ATH #8, FG ATH #4, MLB ATH #6, BP ATH #4]

RF - Nolan Jones* .261/.353/.434, 14 HR, 109 OPS+ (AV @ 3B, FR @ LF, RF)
... Will Brennan* .278/.324/.401, 105 OPS+ (AV @ LF, RF, FR @ CF)
... Braylin Morel [BA TEX #13, MLB TEX #17, BP TEX PoI]

DH - Kyle Schwarber* .224/.346/.470, 37 HR, 127 OPS+ (PR @ 1B, LF)

SP - Nestor Cortes* 3.54 ERA, 152/38 K/BB (152.7 IP) 117 ERA+
... Clarke Schmidt 3.91, 109/45 (106.0) 106 ERA+
... Luis Ortiz 3.99, 108/35 (126.3) 105 ERA+
... Alex Cobb 3.99, 86/35 (106.0) 104 ERA+
... Cristian Mena 4.09, 97/44 (110.0) 101 ERA+ [BA ARI #14, FG ARI #8, MLB ARI #13, BP ARI PoI]
... Allan Winans 4.22, 86/29 (106.7.0) 97 ERA+
... Slade Cecconi 4.37, 100/28 (115.3) 96 ERA+
... Justin Verlander 4.15, 88/35 (117.0) 95 ERA+
... Charlie Morton 4.29, 153/62 (149.0) 95 ERA+
... Davis Martin 4.46, 71/30 (78.7) 91 ERA+
... Jonathan Cannon 4.71, 105/47 (145.3) 86 ERA+
... {Mason Adams 4.92, 75/29 (104.3) 82 ERA+ [BA CWS #13, FG CWS #21, MLB CWS #12, BP CWS PoI]}
... {Tyler Schweitzer* 5.10, 86/43 (113.0) 80 ERA+ [BA CWS #32, FG CWS #16, MLB CWS #22, BP CWS PoI]}
... Fernando Perez [BA TOR #10, MLB TOR #12, BP TOR #17]
... Aiden 24-May* [BA MIA #20, MLB MIA #22, BP MIA #11]
... Brian 24-Holiday* [BA STL #14, MLB STL #15, BP STL #12]
... Gregory 23-Sanchez* [BA COL #28, FG COL #42]

CL - Josh Hader 3.03, 90/23 (62.3) 136 ERA+

RHSU - Jordan Romano 3.71, 55/19 (51.0) ___ ERA+
... Jose Butto 3.50, 77/30 (69.1) 116 ERA+
... Calvin Faucher 3.91, 57/26 (53.0) 112 ERA+
... Ryan Fernandez 3.71, 60/23 (60.7) 111 ERA+
... Josh Sborz 3.71, 48/17 (43.7) 110 ERA+
... Justin Topa 3.80, 36/14 (42.7) 109 ERA+
... Eric Swanson 3.90, 55/19 (55.3) 107 ERA+
... Shane Smith 4.69, 73/29 (78.7) 86 ERA+ [BA CWS #24, FG CWS #7, MLB CWS #26]

LHSU - Brock Burke* 3.71, 63/21 (63.0) 112 ERA+
... Tanner Banks* 3.80, 65/20 (66.3), 111 ERA+
... Tyler Matzek* 3.99, 39/15 (38.3), 102 ERA+
... Wandy Peralta* 4.03, 36/19 (44.7) 100 ERA+
... Will 23-Johnston* 4.55, 83/37 (89.0), 90 ERA+ [BA ATH #23, , FG ATH #17, MLB ATH #23]

2025 ZiPS projection
Likely draftee roster

With all the ZiPS team releases done (I'll find out about Verlander's projection when the final spread sheet gets published) I have a pretty good idea what my opening day roster looks like. I like the defense better this year then last and think this team will be competitive in the NL West.

SS - Geraldo Perdomo# .248/.340/.355, 13 SB, 95 OPS+ (1 @ SS)
DH - Kyle Schwarber* .224/.346/.470, 37 HR, 127 OPS+ (0 @ DH)
3B - Manny Machado .266/.323/.462, 26 HR, 119 OPS+ (3 @ 3B)
LF - Tyler O'Neill .250/.333/.481, 24 HR, 131 OPS+ (3 @ LF)
1B - Christian Walker .232/.317/.445, 26 HR, 113 OPS+ (8 @ 1B)
RF - Will Brennan* .278/.324/.401, 105 OPS+ (2 @ RF)
.C - Dominic Keegan .244/.312/.373, 92 OPS+ (3 @ C) [BP 69/101, MLB TAM #13, BP TAM #5]
2B - Luis Garcia* .269/.308/.423, 16 HR, 14 SB, 105 OPS+ (0 @ 2B)
CF - Harrison Bader .237/.287/.369, 10 HR, 16 SB, 85 OPS+ (8 @ CF)

C/1B/LF/RF - Hunter Goodman .239/.291/.459, 21 HR, 96 OPS+ (-9 @ C)
2B/SS/3B/LF/CF - Otto Lopez .275/.324/.381, 15 SB, 93 OPS+ (4 @ 2B)
2B/SS/3B - Brooks Baldwin# .248/.300/.370, 10 HR, 14 SB, 88 OPS+ (-2 @ SS)
LF/CF/RF - Austin Slater .241/.332/.364, 101 OPS+ (3 @ RF)
CF/RF/LF - Denzel Clarke .221/.287/.378, 12 HR, 17 SB, 85 OPS+ (5 @ CF) [BA OAK #8, FG OAK #4, MLB OAK #10, BP OAK #4]

Should be able to assemble and maintain a decent starting pitcher rotation out of the following, albeit some are aged, pitchers:

SP - Nestor Cortes* 3.54, 152/38 (152.7) 117 ERA+
... Clarke Schmidt 3.91, 108/35 (106.0) 106 ERA+
... Jordan Montgomery* 3.93, 107/43 (132.7) 105 ERA+
... Alex Cobb 3.99, 86/35 (106.0) 104 ERA+ 15 day DL
... Cristian Mena 4.09, 97/44 (110.0) 101 ERA+
... Slade Cecconi 4.37, 100/28 (115.3) 96 ERA+ 15 day DL
... Justin Verlander 4.15, 88/35 (117.0) 95 ERA+
... Charlie Morton 4.29, 153/62 (149.0) 95 ERA+

The bullpen looks MUCH better than it did in November 2024 ...

CL - Josh Hader 3.03, 90/23 (62.3) 136 ERA+

RHSU - Jose Butto 3.50, 77/30 (69.1) 116 ERA+
... Ryan Fernandez 3.71, 60/23 (60.7) 111 ERA+

LHSU - Brock Burke* 3.71, 63/21 (63.0) 112 ERA+
... Tanner Banks* 3.80 ERA, 65/20 K/BB (66.3), 111 ERA+

LR - Josh Sborz 3.71, 48/17 (43.7) 110 ERA+ 60 day DL
... Justin Topa 3.80, 36/14 (42.7) 109 ERA+

MU - Eric Swanson 3.90, 55/19 (55.3) 107 ERA+ 15 day DL

Next up, the IBC pre-season draft which will require some releases ... figure Gurriel, Ottavino, Winans, Porter and McGough are probably on the bubble ...

2025 ZiPS projection

As we approach the start of 2025 IBC season, here is a look at the IBC Padres current situation. During the off season I attempted to bolster an aging rotation by acquiring Jordan Montgomery and "Nasty" Cortes only to see them both succumb to devastating injuries which lead to the outright release of Montgomery and we will get probably 2 starts from Nasty before he goes the 60 day DL. Slade Cecconi and Alex Cobb will start on the DL as well. Fortunately Clarke Schmidt's season opening stint on the DL was relatively short term. So the season opening rotation appears to be some shifting combination of:

Nestor Cortes* 3.54 ERA, 152/38 K/BB (152.7 IP) 117 ERA+ - until 4/4, then 60 day DL
Clarke Schmidt 3.91, 109/45 (106.0) 106 ERA+ - available 4/8
Luis Ortiz 3.99, 108/35 (126.3) 105 ERA+
Alex Cobb 3.99, 86/35 (106.0) 104 ERA+ - on the DL until ...
Cristian Mena 4.09, 97/44 (110.0) 101 ERA+ [BA ARI #14, FG ARI #8, MLB ARI #13, BP ARI PoI]
Allan Winans 4.22, 86/29 (106.7.0) 97 ERA+
Slade Cecconi 4.37, 100/28 (115.3) 96 ERA+ - on the DL until ...
Justin Verlander 4.15, 88/35 (117.0) 95 ERA+
Charlie Morton 4.29, 153/62 (149.0) 95 ERA+

Rather old and very right handed ... One might even say perfectly cromulent.

Moving onto the bull pen - which has been dramatically improved over the off season. This is needed due, at least in part, to the status of the aforementioned rotation. Here, too, injuries play a part but not as significant. Josh Hader is the primary Closer but if he gets hurt I would comfortable moving Jordan Romano into that slot. The pen has some depth in anticipation of some additional injuries occurring as injuries to pitchers seems to be happening with increasing frequency. Here's how we plan to open the season:

CL - Josh Hader 3.03, 90/23 (62.3) 136 ERA+

RHSU - Jordan Romano 3.71, 55/19 (51.0) ___ ERA+
Jose Butto 3.50, 77/30 (69.1) 116 ERA+

LHSU - Brock Burke* 3.71, 63/21 (63.0) 112 ERA+
Tanner Banks* 3.80, 65/20 (66.3), 111 ERA+

LR/MU - Calvin Faucher 3.91, 57/26 (53.0) 112 ERA+
Ryan Fernandez 3.71, 60/23 (60.7) 111 ERA+

On the DL unti ...: Josh Sborz 3.71, 48/17 (43.7) 110 ERA+ and Eric Swanson 3.90, 55/19 (55.3) 107 ERA+

Depth: Justin Topa 3.80, 36/14 (42.7) 109 ERA+
Tyler Matzek* 3.99, 39/15 (38.3), 102 ERA+
Wandy Peralta* 4.03, 36/19 (44.7) 100 ERA+

As to the line-up I expect the IBC Padres will score more runs in 2025 and play better defense then last season. Injuries will impact the OF as both Austin Slater and Tyler O'Neil will spend some time on the DL after the season starts but the rest of the projected line-up appears to be healthy for at least the first few weeks:

RF - Nolan Jones* .261/.353/.434, 14 HR, 109 OPS+ (AV @ 3B, FR @ LF, RF)
DH - Kyle Schwarber* .224/.346/.470, 37 HR, 127 OPS+ (PR @ 1B, LF)
3B - Manny Machado .266/.323/.462, 26 HR, 119 OPS+ (AV @ 3B, SS)
LF - Tyler O'Neill .250/.333/.481, 24 HR, 131 OPS+ (VG @ LF, RF, AV @ CF) - on DL 4/24 until ...
1B - Christian Walker .232/.317/.445, 26 HR, 113 OPS+ (EX @ 1B)
SS -Jeremy Pena .257/.307/.388, 15 HR 15 SB, 96 OPS+ (AV @ SS)
.C - Dominic Keegan .244/.312/.373, 92 OPS+ (FR @ C) [BP 69/101, MLB TAM #13, BP TAM #5]
2B - Luis Garcia* .269/.308/.423, 16 HR, 14 SB, 105 OPS+ (FR @ 2B, SS)
CF - Harrison Bader .237/.287/.369, 10 HR, 16 SB, 85 OPS+ (EX @ LF, CF, RF)

C/1B/LF/RF - Hunter Goodman .239/.291/.459, 21 HR, 96 OPS+ (FR @ C, 1B, LF, RF)
2B/SS/3B/LF/CF - Otto Lopez .275/.324/.381, 15 SB, 93 OPS+ (VG @ 2B, SS, 3B, AV @ LF, RF, FR @ CF)
2B/SS/3B/LF/RF - Brooks Baldwin# .248/.300/.370, 10 HR, 14 SB, 88 OPS+ (AV @ 2B, SS, 3B, FR @ LF, RF)
LF/CF/RF - Will Brennan* .278/.324/.401, 105 OPS+ (AV @ LF, RF, FR @ CF)
LF/CF/RF - Austin Slater .241/.332/.364, 101 OPS+ (AV @ LF, RF, FR @ CF) - on DL 4/11 until ...

CF/RF/LF - Denzel Clarke .221/.287/.378, 12 HR, 17 SB, 85 OPS+ (5 @ CF) [BA OAK #8, FG OAK #4, MLB OAK #10, BP OAK #4] will be called when Slater goes on the DL

As seen more and more in real life there is a lot of versatility on the bench and guys like Otto Lopez and Will Brennan will probably be on the field a lot as a defensive replacement.

Let the games begin ...