2024 Draft
Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2024 10:42 am
Pick #34 - Walker Martin - if - Giants: He's an elite athlete who hit .636 in high school with 20 home runs (most by HS player in country), while also starting for the basketball team and leading the football team to two state championships as QB. Every report raves about his makeup, athleticism, and sweet left-handed swing. Multiple sites have compared him favorably to Gunnar Henderson and I do truly believe he would have been out of reach at #34 had he stepped foot on the field after the draft. Everything above seems awesome, but the young man was quite old for his graduating class and will need to perform and move quickly to reach his massive ceiling.
Pick #39 - Josh Knoth - rhp - Brewers: Very young for his draft class, Knoth was moving quickly up draft boards based on results and spin rates and then exploded with a 19 k perfect game that helped crystallize his prospect status. Almost all scouting of him starts with his fastball that topped out consistently at 98, while sitting in the mid-90's. That was different from past scouting, so we'll have to see if the velocity holds into his pro debut. The separator for Knoth are two vicious breakers with 3,000+ rpm spin. His slider is a potential plus-plus pitch, while the curveball is plus. He also throws a changeup that flashes plus with good fade. Combined with solid command of all the pitches, it's high-end starters stuff and another guy who probably would have gone much higher had he stepped on the field post-draft. The issues? He's a very young prep arm and shit happens all the time with them.
Pick #67 - Eric Bitonti - if - Brewers: Another incredibly young prep player, Bitonti was 17 when he was drafted and held his own in the ACL. He's also 6'4" and flashes 70 grade in-game, raw power by almost every report. He's also playable at ss, but will almost assuredly grow out of it into 3b where scouts almost unanimously think he can be a plus defender. He needs to maintain the good eye that he's shown as he moves up the ladder and iron out some swing-and-miss, but I truly believe he would have been a 1st round pick in a normal season with his profile. If nothing falls apart in his developmental path, he's a plus 3b with a mediocre average but excellent ops' due to his strength and eye.
Pick #77 - Kendall George - of - Dodgers: Crossed my fingers, toes, etc. that he or Winokur would fall to 77, and was thrilled when he did. George is another prep player, but this time was one who helped his stock post-draft. Using his extreme athleticism (80 speed!) and outstanding bat-to-ball skills, George ripped through complex and a ball to the tune of a .370/.458/.420 slash line with 17 sb's. He will ultimately stick in cf and gets a ton of Juan Pierre comps (great bat to ball, poor power). The most intriguing thing about George, though, is that almost every scouting service mentions that he can put on a show in batting practice. It would involve a swing overhaul and may not be worth it, but if he could eventually run into 10-15 homers a year, he would have all-star potential.
Pick #93 - Tre' Morgan - 1b - Rays: As a starting point, Morgan could step on an mlb field today and would be a plus to plus-plus first baseman. He also has a tremendous feel for hitting and rarely strikes out. He also flashes plus raw power from an incredibly athletic frame. The problem? He really struggles to elevate the ball. The Rays believe they can tinker and tap into the plus raw, and if a system could do it...they'd be one of the ones I would choose. And, no matter what, Casey Kotchman made $15 million playing professional baseball so the floor should be ok, too.
Pick #99 - Alonzo Tredwell - rhp - Astros: Why would you pick a pitcher with a history of missing two high school years with TJ? And, when he moved to an sp role in college, could only muster 45 more ip's before hurting his back? Fair questions.
Why would you NOT take a 6'8" sp with vanishing stuff and supreme command? Outstanding control of a riding high 90's fastball with two quality breakers and an insane k/bb rate in a good PAC12 conference? Better questions. Here's hoping the Astros can do their sp magic and also keep him healthy.
Pick #121 - Kemp Alderman - of - Marlins: Alderman is a good snapshot of how all the major prospect ranking sites view talent. Almost across the board, he is touted for plus-plus raw power, plus power, development of swing decisions in his junior year, and will be able to play cof. It's also agreed his milb tenure post-draft was a bit of a disaster. Think if Chase Davis looked like a bowling ball.
BP ranks him #4 in the Marlins system. BA ranks him #20. MLB ranks him #8 and Longenhagen & FG, on brand, will not release his 2024 ranking until 2027. No doubt the swings you see in his rankings show that he is that much of a lottery ticket...but he is definitely tremendous value this late in the draft.
WAIVERS - Nehomar Ochoa - of - Astros: Think Pedro Cerrano. He is huge, has big time power, a cannon arm, and pro bloodlines. He was not overmatched in his pro debut (even posting MLB level exit velos) and BA loves him (#76 draft prospect, #25 in deep Astros system). And while I like consensus early in the draft, I do love taking guys one ranking system is way higher on later in the draft…even if that is BA in this case.
He just really can’t hit spin right now. Yo bartender! Jobu needs a refill.
Pick #39 - Josh Knoth - rhp - Brewers: Very young for his draft class, Knoth was moving quickly up draft boards based on results and spin rates and then exploded with a 19 k perfect game that helped crystallize his prospect status. Almost all scouting of him starts with his fastball that topped out consistently at 98, while sitting in the mid-90's. That was different from past scouting, so we'll have to see if the velocity holds into his pro debut. The separator for Knoth are two vicious breakers with 3,000+ rpm spin. His slider is a potential plus-plus pitch, while the curveball is plus. He also throws a changeup that flashes plus with good fade. Combined with solid command of all the pitches, it's high-end starters stuff and another guy who probably would have gone much higher had he stepped on the field post-draft. The issues? He's a very young prep arm and shit happens all the time with them.
Pick #67 - Eric Bitonti - if - Brewers: Another incredibly young prep player, Bitonti was 17 when he was drafted and held his own in the ACL. He's also 6'4" and flashes 70 grade in-game, raw power by almost every report. He's also playable at ss, but will almost assuredly grow out of it into 3b where scouts almost unanimously think he can be a plus defender. He needs to maintain the good eye that he's shown as he moves up the ladder and iron out some swing-and-miss, but I truly believe he would have been a 1st round pick in a normal season with his profile. If nothing falls apart in his developmental path, he's a plus 3b with a mediocre average but excellent ops' due to his strength and eye.
Pick #77 - Kendall George - of - Dodgers: Crossed my fingers, toes, etc. that he or Winokur would fall to 77, and was thrilled when he did. George is another prep player, but this time was one who helped his stock post-draft. Using his extreme athleticism (80 speed!) and outstanding bat-to-ball skills, George ripped through complex and a ball to the tune of a .370/.458/.420 slash line with 17 sb's. He will ultimately stick in cf and gets a ton of Juan Pierre comps (great bat to ball, poor power). The most intriguing thing about George, though, is that almost every scouting service mentions that he can put on a show in batting practice. It would involve a swing overhaul and may not be worth it, but if he could eventually run into 10-15 homers a year, he would have all-star potential.
Pick #93 - Tre' Morgan - 1b - Rays: As a starting point, Morgan could step on an mlb field today and would be a plus to plus-plus first baseman. He also has a tremendous feel for hitting and rarely strikes out. He also flashes plus raw power from an incredibly athletic frame. The problem? He really struggles to elevate the ball. The Rays believe they can tinker and tap into the plus raw, and if a system could do it...they'd be one of the ones I would choose. And, no matter what, Casey Kotchman made $15 million playing professional baseball so the floor should be ok, too.
Pick #99 - Alonzo Tredwell - rhp - Astros: Why would you pick a pitcher with a history of missing two high school years with TJ? And, when he moved to an sp role in college, could only muster 45 more ip's before hurting his back? Fair questions.
Why would you NOT take a 6'8" sp with vanishing stuff and supreme command? Outstanding control of a riding high 90's fastball with two quality breakers and an insane k/bb rate in a good PAC12 conference? Better questions. Here's hoping the Astros can do their sp magic and also keep him healthy.
Pick #121 - Kemp Alderman - of - Marlins: Alderman is a good snapshot of how all the major prospect ranking sites view talent. Almost across the board, he is touted for plus-plus raw power, plus power, development of swing decisions in his junior year, and will be able to play cof. It's also agreed his milb tenure post-draft was a bit of a disaster. Think if Chase Davis looked like a bowling ball.
BP ranks him #4 in the Marlins system. BA ranks him #20. MLB ranks him #8 and Longenhagen & FG, on brand, will not release his 2024 ranking until 2027. No doubt the swings you see in his rankings show that he is that much of a lottery ticket...but he is definitely tremendous value this late in the draft.
WAIVERS - Nehomar Ochoa - of - Astros: Think Pedro Cerrano. He is huge, has big time power, a cannon arm, and pro bloodlines. He was not overmatched in his pro debut (even posting MLB level exit velos) and BA loves him (#76 draft prospect, #25 in deep Astros system). And while I like consensus early in the draft, I do love taking guys one ranking system is way higher on later in the draft…even if that is BA in this case.
He just really can’t hit spin right now. Yo bartender! Jobu needs a refill.