IBC

Yankees trade Christian Walker, Eddy Alvarez, Allan Winans, 2023 Draft Pick 133, 2023 Draft Pick 138 to Padres for Miguel Vargas, Trystan 22-Vrieling, 2023 Draft Pick 95

Miguel Vargas was a team leader for the 2023 IBC White Sox playing all 162 games while leading the team with 25 HR, 83 RBI, 78 runs and 150 hits. He is young and dynamic but wasn't going to start for 2024 IBC Padres. He definitely holds an awesome future value as a hitter in search of a position and has been a core component of my team. Vrieling is a good young promising pitcher whom the real life Yankees drafted in the 3rd round but he battled injuries and didn't pitch much until the 2023 AFL. Pick 95 would been been my 3rd pick in top 100 and now becomes Z's second highest pick in the 2024 draft.

My theme for our initial year in San Diego has been to build a roster built around very good defense and scoring runs - which we must do as our pitching is not good. Christian Walker, a two time gold glover at 1B who hit 33 HR with a 123 OPS+ in real life last season, is the definition of good D/score runs. He will bump Mark Vientos and his 105 OPS+ down to bench position as back up at 1B & 3B while occasionally DHing. 34 year old Eddy Alvarez is likely a one year ZiPs SIM freak with his .254/.347/.406, 104 OPS+ projection but he will bump Whit Merrifield down to 2B/COF bench role. Allan Winans and his projected 100 ERA+ will supplant Alex Faedo (94 ERA+) as the Padres 4/5 SP until Alex Cobb comes off a season starting IL designation. While I slipped out the top 100 I did increase my total draft picks to 5 which has also been a target of mine.

Mariners trade Geraldo Perdomo, Luis V. Garcia to Padres for Mark Vientos

JT's Mariners have an immense amount of talent stockpiled at the SS/MI slot(s) ... and he needed a right handed corner infielder to replace Donaldson. He received a solid replacement in the young Mark Vientos (projected 105 OPS+, AV @ 3B) with a bit of pop in his bat. Walker and Machado blocked him on my team so he was going to be a bench bat for me in 2024.

Likewise it was not probable that either MI I received would start for the Mariners but there are both solid additions to the IBC Padres. My currently slotted 2B, Alvarez, is old and likely a one year SIM phenom. Luis Garcia (projected .266/.305/.411, 14 HR, 99 OPS+ (-1 @ 2B)) does provide potential future protection - particularly if he continues to develop his power. He is also a left handed batter and helps balance my lineup. Geraldo Perdomo, with his strong OBP production (projected .242/.338/.341, 12 SB, 89 OPS+ (0 @ SS)), provides me some protection at SS against Arroyo receiving a lackluster ZiPs projection this season - though if they are relatively equal offensively I suspect Arroyo's D may make him my starting SS and shift Perdomo to a valued UT IF slot which is where he will probably be in real life once Lawlar is promoted.

The first trade of 2024 in the IBC is in the books and I believe it truly benefits both teams which is the kind of trade I truly like to do.

Guardians trade Brock Burke, 2023 Draft Pick 47, Dylan 22-Tebrake to Padres for Adam 0-Macko, 2023 Draft Pick 35

Pat moves up 12 slots in the 2nd round of a deep draft and gets an interesting lefty pitcher who brings the heat (and is a Blue Jay which forms the nucleus of the IBC Guardians good bullpen). Eric & Tess at Fangraphs peg Macko as a MIRP writing, "we think he’s going to be a valuable weapon on a pitching staff even if he ends up as a long reliever." while rating him as Toronto's #7 prospect. Most other publications still view him as a viable SP.

I slide down 12 slots in the 2nd round of the draft but add some younger depth to my bullpen which I normally can beef up during the ZiPs bidding process but this year it seems there are fewer opportunities to do so ... Brock Burke, a 27 year young lefty, received a projected 109 ERA+ in 2023 and I am hopeful he is the same general area when his 2024 ZiPs is released as he produced a 5-3 record, maintaining a 4.37 ERA, a 1.223 WHIP, and notably led the real life Rangers with a 5.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 53 games in 2023. Dylan TeBrake, a 22-draftee, received a nice 4.02, 44/21 K/BB (40.3 IP) 110 ERA+ and he or Jordan Leasure will pair with Adam Ottavino as my RHSU. 24 year old TeBrake hails from St. Cloud, Minnesota which is also the home of Pantown Brewing - an awesome brewery my daughter, Sarah, and I spent an enjoyable evening at on our to Alaska last April.

Cardinals trade Isaac 22-Coffey to Padres for Michael Wacha

Michael Wacha has pitched pretty well in real life the last two seasons and I believe he will be a stable SP for the real life Royals in 2024. I thought he'd get around 100 ERA+ projection from Dan Sz and his ZiPs computers so I was mildly disappointed when his 2024 projection came out at 4.15 ERA, 106/36 K/BB (119.3 IP), 97 ERA+. He was probably slotting in as my #5 to #7 SP depending on the opening season health of some of my admittedly older rotation so he was "tradable" when JP approached me inquiring about SP availability. We discussed a few RP options as that remains a need of this year's Padres squad but then I asked about a young SP he has and we had a deal. I hope the 32 year old Wacha enjoys good health and a good year but I was happy to get a new guy I have seen pitch in Portland.

Isaac Coffey pitched at Oral Roberts and then was selected in the 10th round by the real life Red Sox. He is a SP now but may end up as a RP because of his pitching style and lack of real velocity. Coffey amassed a fantastic 155 strikeouts over his 117.2 innings of work between stints at A+ and AA, easily earning his promotion to Portland. As I said, he doesn't light up the radar gun, but his pitch variety includes a sinker ranging from the high 80s to low 90s, a slider that fooled just about everyone with its sidearm release, a 12-6 curveball, and a new changeup. It is my hope that the 24 RHP will remain on the Padres draftee roster in 2024 but he did receive a 4.61, 94/33 (109.3), 96 ERA+ ZiPs projection and could get slotted into the rotation if health concerns dictate it.

Twins trade Patrick Wisdom, Devin Williams, Kyle Schwarber to Padres for Manny Machado

Jason inquired about the availability of Manny and I responded in a fairly detailed response that it could happen but only if my team gained significantly in another area or two. Machado is very good and his projection of .269/.335/.469, 26 HR, 125 OPS+ (5 @ 3B) reflects this. He is also young enough at 31 that he will be a factor for a while. His combination of offense and defense represents a giant step forward at 3B for Jason over Brian Anderson and/or Patrick Wisdom. And Jason could afford to move Williams and still maintain a world class CL as he still has Josh Hader and his projected 130 ERA+.

Devin Williams is a 29 year young stud with an awesome projection of 3.00 ERA, 83/26 K/BB (55.3 IP) and 145 ERA+. He solidifies the CL slot allowing me to move Burke and his projected 119 ERA+ back into a LHSU slot. Undoubtedly my bullpen is much improved. Kyle Schwarber replaces Olivares as the Padres primary DH allowing Olivares and his projected 114 OPS+ to function as the team's 4th OF. In real life for his career, Schwarber has 246 home runs over nine years, averaging 41 over 162 games. In his last two years as a Philadelphia Phillie, he had 46 home runs in 2022 and 47 in 2023. Dan Sz projected him at .218/.343/.476, 38 HR, 123 OPS+ and -12 @ LF. I promise he will not don an outfielder's glove once as an IBC Padre. That combination of power and OBP nicely upgrades my DH and moving Olivares upgrades my OF and bench. This also adds a 3rd LH bat to my starting line-up as Schwarber joins Kiermaer and Suwinski ... The "bad news" is a downgrade at 3B. 3B/1B/DH Patrick Wisdom will likely just play 3B for the 2024 IBC Padres. In real life his 23 home runs in 97 games equated to roughly a 38-homer pace in 162 games. He has consistently displayed some serious power with the real life Cubs going back to 2021, hitting 76 home runs with a .772 OPS and 107 OPS+ in 337 games. In each of his past three seasons, he eclipsed the 20-homer mark. With that said, the low average (.214) and OBP (.298) coupled with a high strikeout rate (37%) in his MLB career makes him an "all or nothing" player. Not to mention defensive regression at the hot corner, where he was very efficient in 2021 but dipped to a -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) defender at third in 2023. ZiPs projects him at .214/.300/.455 , 23 HR, 103 OPS+ (-5 @ 3B) in only 391 PA. He will likely bat 8th and be replaced for defensive by Nick Sogard who rates a 4 @ 3B. He may only get 391 PA with the IBC Padres.

Guess this means I am in a "win now" mood. Can I overcome my pitching? This trade does weaken my overall defense but does garner me a much stronger bullpen and, I believe, more better balanced O. We'll see ...

Yankees trade Josh Sborz to Padres for Gavin 22-Cross

Gavin 22-Cross was, in real life, a first round pick of the KC Royals after a very successful college career at Virginia Tech. All the scouting reports indicated the LH hitting Cross had a good shot at being a player with an above-average hit and power combo and to stick in center field. The IBC White Sox took him in the first round; the IBC Padres drafted him in the recent mini-draft. In real life, he struggled last season posting a sub-.700 OPS for the A+ Quad Cities as both his contact rate and power played below-average. Cross' high-end game power is still there and he still walked at a decent clip. He is a prime bounce-back candidate that BP ranks as the Royals #3 and BA as the Royals #9 prospect. ZiPs projects him at .215/.284/.372, 10 HR, 11 SB, 80 OPS+ (-1 @ CF) though I doubt he will play much, if at all, for Z's Yankees in 2024.

Josh Sborz is a 30 year old RH RP who had a better post season then regular season for the real life Rangers as he clinched the final outs in their World Series victory. A 5.50 ERA in the regular season turned into a 0.75 ERA in the postseason. He battled injuries in 2023 yet Dan Sz and his ZiPs computers gave him a healthy projection of 3.99 ERA, 66/22 K/BB (56.3 IP) and a 110 ERA+. Maybe a one year SIM wonder but I'll take it for the 2024 IBC Padres as he'll team up with Ottavino's 111 ERA+, Tebrake's 110 ERA+ and whatever we see next week for Leasure's projection as the RHSU in the Padres suddenly much stronger bull pen. I have Jacob 22-Melton and Jacob 22-Burke also on the roster as CF so I feel comfortable giving up for some potential, particularly in CF, for more immediate bullpen reinforcements.

Rays trade Braxton Garrett, 2023 Draft Pick 72 to Padres for Edwin 21-Arroyo, Jordan 21-Wicks, 2023 Draft Pick 47

Kinda' feeling like Dave Dombrowski ...

Jordan Wicks is a good 24 year young LH SP ... BP sees him as #94 in their top 100 and #8 on the Cubs while BA ranks him as the Cubs #6. I think he will be good and was disappointed when Dan Sz and his computers only projected him with a 4.40 ERA, 94/39 K/BB (110.3 IP) and a 94 ERA+ for the upcoming IBC season. Likewise, Edwin Arroyo is also young (20) and is a well regarded switch hitting SS whom BA ranks #4 for the Reds and BP sees him as #6 among the Reds very talented prospects. He is supposed to be best defensive weapon among the many real life Reds MI players and prospects so I was surprised when ZiPs only gave him a -1 @ SS to go along with a .232/.285/.380, 13 HR, 16 SB, 76 OPS+ projection for the 2024 IBC season. Both of these guys figure to have solid careers eventually.

Braxton Garrett is a 27 year young LH SP and an immediate upgrade to the IBC Padres rotation. He actually began real life 2023 as a RP who got moved into the rotation due to injuries. But he was solid. Garrett punched out a solid 23.7% of batters faced while keeping the ball on the ground nearly half the time. He walked only 4.4% of opposing hitters, showcasing the plus control which evaluators had praised during his time as a prospect. It’s not an overpowering profile. He averaged just 90.5 MPH with the sinker that serves as his primary offering. Despite the pedestrian velocity, Garrett has shown the ability to miss bats with his assortment of secondary pitches. He generated above-average whiff rates on each of his slider, cutter and changeup. ZiPs projects him at 4.02, 125/39 (136.7) 105 ERA+.

Garrett is an immediate upgrade over over Wicks and Garrett is also one of my youngest SP (Verlander, Morton, Cobb) in the IBC Padres 2024 rotation. Matt has really nice depth at SP so he can give up a 105 ERA+ and not get hurt while picking up a couple of solid prospects and moving up in the draft. Given my recent pick-up of Perdomo, Arroyo is expendable. I do slide out of the second and into the third round of the upcoming deep draft, but sometimes "going all in" has a cost ...

Rays trade Keiner 21-Delgado, Richard 21-Fitts to Padres for Edward Olivares

Edward Olivares was orginally going to be the Padres primary DH until I received Schwarber. He can play all three OF positions and received a solid .277/.333/.450, 13 HR, 10 SB, 114 OPS+ (-1 @ LF) ZiPs projection this season. Matt was looking to strengthen his bench. This season, I want my bench OFs to be defensive replacements when necessary so Olivares became expendable.

This trade is really more forward thinking then 2024-oriented for the IBC Padres. Richard Fitts was the biggest get-back for the real life Red Sox in their recent deal with the Yankees. He was the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year in 2023. The 24-year-old RH SP went 11-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 27 starts (152 ⅔ innings) for Double-A Somerset in 2023. He averaged 9.6 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings. He held opponents to a .227 batting average. Fitts throws his fastball (95 plus), a four-seamer, with vertical motion. He also throws a slider and changeup. He will be a major league pitcher though I am not sure if he will end as a SP or RP ... A really fun read about him can be found here: https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/12/ ... ex-verdugo ... He should receive a 2024 ZiPs projection when the ZiPs spreadsheet comes out. Keiner Delgado slashed .293/.414/.485 with eight home runs, 36 steals on 43 attempts and more walks (36) than strikeouts (31) across 49 games in the Florida Complex League. Listed at 5-foot-7, 145 pounds, Delgado gets the most out of his physical abilities and gets high marks for his makeup. The 19-year-old switch hitter fits best long term at second base and is at least an above-average runner. Fangraphs recently ranked as NYY #22. Adding him will allow me to release a couple of under-performing real life White Sox prospects and replace them with a more bonafide prospect.

Guardians trade Christian Yelich, Kyle Tucker, Erik Swanson, Shane Bieber to Padres for Devin Williams, Fernando Tatis, Jack Suwinski, 2023 Draft Pick 72

Pat got the best player in this deal ... no doubt about it. Tatis is young, plays awesome defense in RF, can hit for average and power with a good deal of speed as well. Suwinski has received a very good projection and he too is young with a very good power/speed profile. Neither of these players have probably reached their peak yet. Pat definitely improved his bullpen getting Williams and his rotation is deep enough that he could a solid SP who is not his ace. Finally he picked an early 3rd round pick in what will be a deep draft.

Kyle Tucker is not a big drop off in RF. In real life he is 30 HR, 30 SB guy who plays decent defense. I plan to bat him 1st or 2nd in my line-up so he will get lots of PA and I think he will surpass his projection of .275/.353/.505, 28 HR, 23 SB, 136 OPS+ (2 @ RF). Christian Yelich is a post-peak player who still produces and he doesn't have as severe platoon splits as Suwinski has. I expect he will play better defense in LF though his arm strength is not as good ... he still received a solid projection of .251/.354/.415, 18 HR, 19 SB, 112 OPS+ (-2 @ LF). Erik Swanson and Williams are about the same age and Swanson becomes my new CL - admittedly a step back from Williams but he should do fine with his projection of 3.60 ERA, 68/19 K/BB (60.0 IP) with a 120 ERA+. The big get for me is Shane Bieber who instantly becomes the ace of the IBC Padres rotation. He is still relatively young and though he is not as dominant as his 2020 CY Young year he got a very good projection of 3.52, 151/37 (148.3), 119 ERA+. Unless someone drafts him before my #5 pick I intend to select Shota Imanaga and my rotation will look like this:

SP - Shane Bieber 3.52 ERA, 151/37 K/BB (148.3 IP), 119 ERA+
... Shota Imanaga 3.55, 146/40 (137.0), 117 ERA+
... Justin Verlander 3.85, 119/46 (147.3), 106 ERA+
... Charlie Morton 4.09, 166/64 (149.7), 106 ERA+
... Braxton Garrett* 4.02, 125/39 (136.7) 105 ERA+
... Alex Cobb 3.84, 121/45 (136.0), 106 ERA+ - initially on IL/hip labrum surgery
... Allan Winans 4.34, 100/35 (120.3) 100 ERA+

The pen will be solid:

CL - Erik Swanson 3.60, 68/19 (60.0), 120 ERA+
RHSU - Adam Ottavino 3.98, 55/25 (52.0) 111 ERA+
... Josh Sborz 3.99 ERA, 66/22 K/BB (56.3 IP), 110 ERA+
LHSU - Brock Burke* 3.69, 65/19 (68.3), 119 ERA+
... Jake Diekman* 4.13, 57/32 (48.0) 102 ERA+
MU/LR - Miguel Diaz 4.08, 64/27 (68.3), 104 ERA+

And the starting line-up will be along these lines:

versus RH SP:

RF - Kyle Tucker* .275/.353/.505, 28 HR, 23 SB, 136 OPS+ (2 @ RF)
2B - Eddy Alvarez .254/.347/.406, 104 OPS+ (-1 @ 2B)
DH - Kyle Schwarber* .218/.343/.476, 38 HR, 128 OPS+ (-12 @ LF)
1B - Christian Walker .253/335/447, 22 HR, 114 OPS+ (7 @ 1B)
LF - Christain Yelich* .251/.354/.415, 18 HR, 19 SB, 112 OPS+ (-2 @ LF)
.C - JT Realmuto .254/.320/.440, 19 HR, 13 SB, 107 OPS+ (2 @ C)
CF - Kevin Kiermaer* .245/.306/.377, 10 SB, 90 OPS+ (11 @ CF)
3B - Patrick Wisdom .212/.300/.455, 23 HR, 103 OPS+ (-5 @ 3B)
SS - Geraldo Perdomo# .242/.338/.341, 12 SB, 89 OPS+ (0 @ SS)

versus LH SP:

RF - Kyle Tucker* .275/.353/.505, 28 HR, 23 SB, 136 OPS+ (2 @ RF)
2B - Eddy Alvarez .254/.347/.406, 104 OPS+ (-1 @ 2B)
LF - Christain Yelich* .251/.354/.415, 18 HR, 19 SB, 112 OPS+ (-2 @ LF)
1B - Christian Walker .253/335/447, 22 HR, 114 OPS+ (7 @ 1B)
.C - JT Realmuto .254/.320/.440, 19 HR, 13 SB, 107 OPS+ (2 @ C)
DH - Kyle Schwarber* .218/.343/.476, 38 HR, 128 OPS+ (-12 @ LF)
CF - Kevin Kiermaer* .245/.306/.377, 10 SB, 90 OPS+ (11 @ CF)
3B - Patrick Wisdom .212/.300/.455, 23 HR, 103 OPS+ (-5 @ 3B)
SS - Geraldo Perdomo# .242/.338/.341, 12 SB, 89 OPS+ (0 @ SS)

Probably done trading ... and ready to see if the Padres are a 2024 IBC playoff team ...

Phillies trade 2023 Draft Pick 123 to Padres for Nolan 22-Perry

I created & signed Nolan Perry [BA TOR #26] after reading he is "a projectable righthander with excellent feel for his breaking ball and in-game production that’s yet to match his ability. Perry mixes a four-seam fastball at 92-94 mph with around 17-18 inches of induced vertical break and 11 inches of run, with a slider at 82-84 mph with moderate sweep, a low-80s curveball with two-plane depth and a changeup. He has a projectable frame with a starter’s pitch mix." Nick responded, "That's my sons name! lol Crazy I didn't know about him" and "You kinda have to trade him to me now lol". After signing Fernando Perez [BA TOR #24] who led Toronto’s FCL team in innings and posted a stellar 29% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate I was able to trade Perry to Perry.

In return I received pick 123 which gets the Padres back to 5 selections in the upcoming draft!

Rockies traded 2023 Draft Pick 97 to Padres for Cristian 0-Mena

Mena is young and shows a lot of promise (he reached AAA when he was only 20) and I think he will become a major league starting pitcher. He was the 12th SP om my depth chart for this season but might have been somewhere between 4th to 6th in another year or two so I think Nate got some good future value.

I had three players I coveted when I first posted Mena as a potential trade target for a pick. Two were selected but RHP Teddy Sharkey was still available so I was happy to select him with pick #97. He should move through the system quickly as he was a dominant college reliever at Coastal Carolina before getting drafted. He has a riding mid-90s fastball and a pair of potential bat-missing breaking balls that grade well analytically, and struck out 16 of the 37 batters he faced with a 0.70 WHIP in his pro debut. I am confident he will develop into an important part of the IBC Padres bull pen - perhaps as soon as next season.

Yankees traded Jose Miranda, Aaron Ashby, Denzel 21-Clarke, Ryan 22-Clifford to Padres for Patrick Wisdom, Shane Bieber

For me, this is somewhat of a "pivot" trade driven by an onslaught of injuries coupled with my desire to have a productive competitive team in the IBC in 2024. For Z, it was all about securing a hopeful certain ace to front his Yankee staff.

Shane Bieber has a really nice projection with a 3.52 ERA, 151/37 K/BB (148.3 IP) and 119 ERA+ and in real life he had two solid starts striking out 20 in 12 IP before succumbing to TJ. Z will get 2 solid starts out of him in the IBC this year and then wait for all of this season and probably part of next before getingt back a really good SP who will only be 30 - and we have seen many pitchers successfully return from TJ. Patrick Wisdom, projected at .212/.300/.455, 23 HR, 103 OPS+ (-5 @ 3B) is masher who in real life has hit at least 23 HR the past 4 seasons. He starts this IBC season on the DL but in real life is hitting well during his rehab at AAA and I expect Cubs manager Counsell with utilize him well in a platoon 3B/DH/1B right power bat off the bench.

Aaron Ashby is a relatively young southpaw SP who missed all of last year with a shoulder injury. Before that Ashby had a 25.2% strikeout rate and 55.9% groundball rate. Since he broke into the league, league average was 22% and 42.6%, respectively. He does a lot of things well, but racking up strikeouts and putting the ball on the ground are above the rest. Good enough that the real life Brewers locked him up for 5 years. With his 4.08, 100/43 (88.3), 107 ERA+ projection he will slot in behind Shota Imanaga as my number 2 SP while the Padres await the return of Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Braxton Garrett. Jose Miranda immediately takes over at 3B and while his .272/.325/.413, 13 HR, 105 OPS+ (-2 @ 3B) projection portends less power, it should also produce less Ks and less need for a defensive replacement - and he is healthy. The last two players are shots at the future ... well regarded OF prospects. Of the two I like Denzel Clarke better as his power/speed combo and athleticism should play well and he may well become Kevin Kiermaer's eventual replacement in CF for the Padres. His projection of .197/.286/.351, 82 OPS+ (3 @ CF) indicates he probably won't play in the IBC at all this year. Ryan 22-Clifford, a very young lefty swinging 1B/COF/DH, is rife with power and if he can develop more pull tendencies could turn into a real masher against RHP. His projection of .202/.296/.345, 16 HR, 75 OPS+ (-6 @ 1B) makes him unlikely to move off the Padres draftee roster this season.

Marlins trade James Karinchak, Slade Cecconi to Padres for Braxton Garrett

I think Braxton Garrett is a solid young southpaw SP who is, is real life, getting close to returning to live action at the MLB level. It won't surprise me if he has the best total career of the three players involved in this trade.

For this IBC season Cecconi projects only slightly worse than Garrett (102 ERA+ vs 105) but he is available to be in IBC Padres injury plagued rotation rotation from opening day. He is also young - about 2 years younger then Garrett. But what really gives me hope for the future, as well as his immediate availability this season, is this excerpt of what I recently read about his real life performance so far this season:

"If the pitching cupboards are especially bare in your league, grab your SPF 1000 — we’re going to the desert. Arizona’s 24-year-old sophomore righty Slade Cecconi excelled in a spot start against the Giants on the road (6 IP, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K), earning another turn in Seattle when he would really turn up the heat versus the M’s (6 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K). We already highlighted opposing batters’ outright inability to make solid contact against him (.227 xwOBAcon is no easy feat) but it’s control that’s always sat at the fore of Cecconi’s game (MiLB career 6.8% BB through 326 IP ). Now it’s become the source of one of two major signals going off, regardless of sample size. His 2.3% BB, 31.8% Ball, and 2.97 Pitches Per Batter Faced through 12 innings are elite efficiency metrics, helping him get through 6 IP in each of his first two starts, despite only throwing 64 and 84 pitches, respectively. Long story short: this young gun is proving to be a strike throwing machine with elite ratios on a good team.

Popping the hood to check for my usual nerdy diagnostics returned something of interest outside the strong results from Cecconi. I noticed not only an usual amount of four-seam run in 2023 (11.8″) but the fact he went and added an additional +3″ of H-Mov to his fastball in the offseason (now third highest in MLB among SPs). As if we didn’t already clear the bar to take a stab at this desperate SP market, this is all amidst a major arsenal adjustment. Cecconi was a two-pitch pitcher (FF, SL) who has transformed… into two separate two-pitch pitchers. He always had success vs RHH (.143 BA, .243 SLG) but southpaws presented a unique challenge that needed to be addressed (.262 xBA, .487 xSLG). Deploying a new changeup that induces whiffs and acts as an out-pitch to lefties could clear the runway for a breakout. The Diamondbacks continue to suffer with injuries and Cecconi could theoretically go the distance for a good ballclub after throwing +142 total IP in 2023.

https://theathletic.com/5467076/2024/05 ... s-stashes/

Karinchak is a solid right handed RP when he is healthy as borne out by his 3.75 ERA, 78/33 K/BB (57.7 IP) 112 ERA+ projection. Karinchak has been sidelined by right shoulder inflammation since the start of spring training but is traveling with the real life Guardians and is expected to return soon.

Yankees traded Brooks 22-Baldwin to Padres for Richard 21-Fitts

Richard Fitts is a fine pitcher whom I have seen him pitch a few times while he was in AA. He was also an asset for the IBC Padres early this season when the team was dealing with numerous IL issues as in the SIM he produced 4 QS in 5 starts, a 3.27 ERA with a 20/6 K/BB in 33 IP allowing only 2 HR while going 1-1. A quirk perhaps but he allowed 2 SB while getting 5 CS. I think he will help Z now and in the future. When Justin Verlander came off the IL, Fitts become expendable.

All of my trades with the Padres have been to attempt this improve this seasons's product. This is the first trade more oriented to the future. The IBC Padres have an older infield and lack a true utility type who can hit to fill in when starters get hurt. While an amatuer, Baldwin hit .361 while playing seven positions in the Cape Cod League. He hit .269/.349/.460 with 15 homers and 22 steals between two Class A levels in his first full pro season. Baldwin has solid-to-plus speed with nonstop energy and good instincts on the bases and in the field. A smooth athlete and fundamentally sound defender with average arm strength, he started games at (in descending order of frequency) third base, shortstop, center field, left field, second base and first base. He provides solid defense at third and second and is average everywhere else. So far this season he is tearing up the AA Southern League hitting .366/.444/.494 with 12 SB and 2 CS in 164 AB. I am a believer.

Pirates trade Austin Riley, Pirates Draft Pick 2 to Padres for Kyle Tucker, Padres Draft Pick 1

I really, really like Kyle Tucker. Prior to his mysterious leg injury he was clearly leading the 2024 IBC Padres playing excellent defense in RF while providing an awesome power/speed combination offensively. Unfortunately just recently the real life "Astros transferred Tucker (shin) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.Tucker has already been on the injured list nearly two months due to the right shin contusion, so this transaction won't affect his recovery timeline. GM Dana Brown said last week that he's "optimistic" the outfielder will return from the injured list before September, but there otherwise isn't a clear timeline for his return. Tucker has progressed slowly in his rehab program but has been taking part in batting practice and increasing his on-field work." [https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseb ... 60-day-il/] None the less, Jake and the Pirates will get back an outstanding player again sometime in the future. For his patience he moves up the 2025 pre-season draft garnering his 3rd 1st Round pick ...

The Padres need help now as the loss of first Tucker, then Yelich and now Walker has drained their power potential. Austin Riley, like Tucker at 27 years young, is a bopper who plays a premier position, 3B, as well as 1B and LF. In real life he is NOT ON THE IL and after a sluggish start has lifted his slash line to.259/.326/.452 for the year. Riley has added 14 home runs, 43 RBI, 52 runs scored, 22 doubles and two triples across 92 contests. Barring a late surge, he'll miss the 30-homer mark for the first time since the abbreviated 2020 campaign. For the Padres, who have split playing at 3B between Rafael Lantigua, Nick Gordon and Damiano Palmegiani he will provide that needed power boost while stabilizing 3B and allow Lantigua and and Gordon to fill in the voids in the OF. Admittedly this "continue to go all in for 2024" attitude did cost some draft capital loss but the Pirates 2nd round pick will likely not be much lower than the padres 1st Round pick.

Twins trade Rhys Hoskins to Padres for J.T. Realmuto

Realmuto is one of the best Catchers in the game which is why he earned a .254/.320/.440, 19 HR, 13 SB, 107 OPS+ (2 @ C) ZiPs projection for the 2024 season. He actually grades at VG for C (FR at 1B) with a VG grade for Catcher throw, power against both RHP & LHP, as well as EX for running and VG for steals and jump. In real life he is hitting .258/312/.391 ... There was a good amount of interest in him and Jason got a good asset. He became expendable as the Padres continue to try to get right-handed thump back in the line-up for the rest of regular season because Dominic Keegan has been hitting well in the IBC as he currently sits at .346/.418/.481 through 25 games (81 AB) with 3 HR, 10 R & 13 RBI. The Padres also signed Korey Lee as insurance though I expect his true value to come through in the 2025 IBC season as in real life while the Chicago White Sox have been historically bad, he has been a beacon of light - particularly his improved pop time (leads MLB), defense and speed.

Hoskins will, at least, temporarily replace Christian Walker at 1B for the 2024 Padres. He is not a gold glover nor is he as strong a batter but he did receive a .236/.339/.452 projection with 22 HR which he has here to date so far slightly under-performed as an IBC Twin hitting .219/.304/.472 with 22 HR while in real life he is hitting .220/.306/.436 with 18 HR though he has been hitting better of late since he returned from the IL. Hopefully his power - particularly against southpaw pitchers - will play well for the remainder of 2024.

Yankees trade Nestor Cortes to Padres for Jose Miranda

I have been holding onto the 26 year young Miranda for his future as he has had a very good real life season batting .324/.366/.513 including a streak where he got 12 hits in 12 straight AB. Now Z gets to look forward the 3B/1B getting a probable better ZiPs projection in 2025 then the (still solid) .272/.325/.413, 13 HR, 105 OPS+ (-2 @ 3B) projection he received in 2024. Miranda has played sparingly for the 2024 IBC Padres and has truthfully under-performed hitting .183/.214/.342 in 44 games. Having Christian Walker and Rhys Hoskins at 1B and Austin Riley at 3B now and next year for the IBC Padres I feel like I could trade this potential future asset - although a significant injury at either position is certainly possible ...

In return I got back a strong 29 year southpaw SP. In real life, "Nasty" is not as nasty this season as he normally has been. But he brought a 3.86 ERA, 99/28 K/BB (102.2 IP), 109 ERA+ projection into 2024 and to date has delivered a 2.89, 154/28 (165.1) result while pitching for the IBC Cardinals and Yankees. Z, being the biggest Yankee fan in the league, passing him on already probably should be a warning sign to me ... but the thought of having Shota Imanaga, Cortes, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton front a playoff run in 2024 for the IBC Padres is simply too much to pass up on this "drive to thrive and survive" season. Plus, he provides SP insurance this year if Verlander, Morton or Alex Cobb get hurt and/or don't retuen, i.e., retire, in 2025.

Marlins trade Harrison Bader to Padres for Grant 23-Taylor

I have liked Grant Taylor ever since the real life White Sox drafted him. He was an excellent starting pitcher at LSU before he needed TJ surgery from which he has finally recovered and is now getting rave reviews in the AFL. Nils is getting a potential #2 SP ...

With Kevin Kiermaier having announced his retirement the IBC Padres have a huge void in CF which eventually will be filled by either Jacob Melton or Denzel Clarke but neither will likely get a good ZiPS projection in 2025. Bader was a Gold Glove winner in 2021 and has played exceptional defense throughout his entire career. His Baseball Savant's defensive metrics are still glowing in red across the board. His fielding range is in the 90th percentile and his arm strength is in the 86th. The veteran centerfielder does not need Silver Slugger-level production to become an asset for a club like the IBC Padres. If he can piece together a 10-homer, 20-steal campaign while hitting .230+, his defense is more than capable of carrying the day. Nils could afford to trade Bader since he acquired PCA abd the plan if Bader to play CF and bat 9th for the IBC Padres ...

Marlins trade Manny Machado, Josh Hader, Jordan Montgomery to Padres for Austin Riley

DEFINITELY did not plan to trade aUSTIN Riley. I truly believe he is going to have an outstanding bounce back in real life in 2025 - MVP-ish season. And his 5 WAR Dan Szy posted in his digital preview indicates another solid projection.

But, quite frankly, Nils overwhelmed with his final offer. And he set the tone for the 2025 IBC Padres. We are going balls to the wall again ... playing to win it all. (Eventually some young guy gonna' get this franchise and say that ol' fuck that had this team left me no future ...)

Manny Machado is a down grade from Riley - at least in the long term. But he is still very good when he is on the field. Jordan Montgomery had a down year in 2024 but ZiPS projected him at 105 ERA+ for 2025 ... 101 for 3ERA+ ... that would be 31, 32, 33 years young and I'll take that. Josh Hader is ... Hader. And that's pretty damn good - especially for an IBC Padres bullpen with no projected CL. Even prior to these discussions I personally had Hader as my leading bounce-back AL Player of the Year ...

Let's go ....

Padres wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2024 7:00 am Marlins trade Manny Machado, Josh Hader, Jordan Montgomery to Padres for Austin Riley

DEFINITELY did not plan to trade aUSTIN Riley. I truly believe he is going to have an outstanding bounce back in real life in 2025 - MVP-ish season. And his 5 WAR Dan Szy posted in his digital preview indicates another solid projection.

But, quite frankly, Nils overwhelmed with his final offer. And he set the tone for the 2025 IBC Padres. We are going balls to the wall again ... playing to win it all. (Eventually some young guy gonna' get this franchise and say that ol' fuck that had this team left me no future ...)

Manny Machado is a down grade from Riley - at least in the long term. But he is still very good when he is on the field. Jordan Montgomery had a down year in 2024 but ZiPS projected him at 105 ERA+ for 2025 ... 101 for 3ERA+ ... that would be 31, 32, 33 years young and I'll take that. Josh Hader is ... Hader. And that's pretty damn good - especially for an IBC Padres bullpen with no projected CL. Even prior to these discussions I personally had Hader as my leading bounce-back AL Player of the Year ...

Let's go ....

Flagging this post for the poor soul who eventually takes over the barren wasteland of Jim's roster (hopefully not for a long time!)

Rays trade Tanner Banks, Braylin 22-Morel to Padres for Rhys Hoskins

Rhys Hoskins was an emergency replacement for Christian Walker at 1B last season who did a decent job as an injury replacement but became a tradable asset as Walker is back with Goodman and perhaps Gurriel staying as back-up 1B. I wish him well on the IBC Rays and Matt was looking for a 1B.

In return the Padres shored up the southpaw side of their pen as Tanner Banks received a solid 2024 ZiPS projection with a 3.80 ERA, 65/20 K/BB in 66.3 IP and a 111 ERA+. Braylin Morel is an 18 year young, mostly RF, who batted .307/.407/.575/.982 with seven home runs, five triples, 10 doubles, and 37 RBI in 41 games, his first professional action stateside. His team-leading .575 slugging percentage ranked third in the ACL.

Mariners trade Juan 0-Carela, Lenyn Sosa, 2024 Draft Pick 99, Fraser 0-Ellard to Padres for 2024 Draft Pick 52, 2024 Draft Pick 82

JT improved his upcoming draft stock exchanging pick 99 and a few players while receiving picks 52 and 82 ...

Carela was recently added to the White Sox 40 man roster to aviod being selected in the recent Rule 5 draft. The right-hander began the 2024 campaign with the High-A Winston-Salem Dash, producing a 3.77 ERA in 74 innings spanning 16 starts. Most notably, the 22-year-old raised his K/9 rate from 7.5 with the Dash in 2023 to 9.5 this past season. The White Sox had seen enough in August and promoted the Dominican hurler to the Double-A Birmingham Barons. Carela then made seven starts with the Barons and continued improving, fanning 36 batters in 32.2 innings while maintaining a 3.58 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Although a smaller sample size, Carela improved in almost every statistical category after his promotion. The soon-to-be 23-year-old spent little time at the Double-A level and will likely begin the 2025 season with the Barons.

2B/3B Sosa is enjoying a hot winter in the Venezuelan Winter League, currently slashing .392/.451/.765 with nine home runs for the Leones del Caracas. The 24-year-old was Chicago's ninth-ranked prospect in 2023, but had a rough 2024 campaign before turning it around in September. Through the end of August, Sosa slashed .216/.247/.295 with four home runs and a 51 wRC+ in 281 plate appearances for the big league club, but for the month of September he slashed .373/.398/.566 with four home runs and a 173 wRC+ in 88 PA. It seems the right-handed hitter has carried that momentum into the winter. Not surprisingly Sosa' turnaround coincided with the dismal of the worst manager in the history of the MLB, Pedro Grifail. ... Both Carela and Sosa are clearly plays for the IBC Padres in 2026 and beyond.

Ellard made his MLB debut this summer. The southpaw relief pitcher appeared in 25 games. He posted a 2-3 record with 1 save, a 3.75 ERA, 1.250 WHIP and a 111 ERA+. Ellard tossed 24 innings and struck out 26. A three-pitch pitcher using a four seam fastball, slider and cutter, Ellard delivered lots of whiffs and a weak contact rate. It is expected that he will be part of the IBC Padres bullpen this upcoming 2025 season.

Mariners trade Jose Butto, 2024 Draft Pick 82 to Padres for Aaron Ashby

Ashby had a solid season as an IBC Padres in 2024 mostly out of the pen (1 GS) going 3-2 with 4 saves, a 2.41 ERA and 40/9 K/BB in 37.1 IP. He figured to fill the same role in 2025 for the IBC Padres but JT plans to use him as a SP. In real life this was recently posted about the 26 year young southpaw: "Ashby has already had two mini-breakouts, one in 2022, when he signed a five-year contract extension, and another late last season when he returned from two tough years of injury to become a lights-out reliever. The Brewers hope that Ashby will build on the confidence of last year, when he delivered a 1.98 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 13 2/3 relief innings in September, and that he’ll benefit from a normal, healthy offseason. Pitching coach Chris Hook has said he would love to see Ashby compete for a return to the rotation. As a fallback, the Brewers know they have a terrific lefty reliever who was so good he might even figure into the closer conversation." I have no doubt JT will make good use of him.

Butto had a not-so-good last year for the IBC M's (6.63, 55/31 K/BB in 73.1 IP) in a swing-man role (25 games, 12 GS) but he received a really solid 2025 ZiPS projection as a pure RP (though he started 116 of 129 games in the minors, then 7 more in MLB): 3.50 ERA, 77/30 K/BB in 69.1 IP with a 116 ERA+. He will figure prominently in the IBC Padres 2025 pen as long as he remains healthy. The 26 year young righthander offers stability and the ability to take on multiple roles: he could be called upon to pitch three innings in one game and then called upon another time as a key set-up man. This is another key step towards shoring up a weak Padres bullpen. The Padres also get back draft pick #82 to return to having 5 draft picks in the upcoming IBC Draft.

Yankees trade Tyler O'Neill, Brock 22-Porter to Padres for Christian Yelich, Nolan 23-McLean

If Yelich comes back successfully from his back operation (and signs are that he will) Z is getting a solid LF. The 33 year old southpaw swinger got a good ZiPS projection for 2025: .264/.362/.426, 15 HR, 20 SB, 119 OPS+ (-2 @ LF) and his speed/power combination will play nicely near the top of the Yankees order. Perhaps the best long term asset will be McLean who despite being a 23 draftee got a decent projection: 4.84 ERA, 81/41 K/BB (100.3 IP) 88 ERA+ [though I am sure Z won't have to use him in the IBC this season] and was recently ranked #74 in Baseball Prospectus top 101 prospects. (Ironically he is the second young SP I traded to upgrade my OF defense this off season with the other being Grant Taylor who BP recently rated #90 of 101.)

In return the Padres pick up O'Neill who will become their primary LF. The 29 year young is better defensively, has more power (but far less SB potential), can play both COF positions and in a chat Dan stated his ZiPS projection is .250/.333/.481 with a 131 OPS+. He has won two Golden Gloves. O'Neill has has some health issues but he didn't last season and in real life he just signed a 3 year contract with Baltimore where they are moderating the left field fence which should be beneficial for his right handed power bat. Porter, a 22 draftee, had a season that he would like to forget. Porter finished with a 6.98 ERA despite being a pitcher who turned heads during a 2023 season. MLB Pipeline wrote of him. "But his control has gone from below average last year to a disaster this season, making him a wild card as a prospect. He once looked like he'd pitch in the front half of a rotation, but even before his struggles in 2024, several scouts outside the organization were projecting him as more of a late-inning reliever."

Rockies trade Clarke Schmidt, Cristian 0-Mena to Padres for Shoto Imanaga, Esteban 23-Mejia

Nate picks first in the upcoming IBC draft and will presumably select Sasaki. He's already got Yamamoto. Now he has Imanaga for a really nice and fun front to his SP rotation. He wanted a 23-player to help fill out his draftee roster and we settled on Esteban 23-Mejia. a young Baltimore hurler.

I felt the Padres SP rotation was just too "lefthanded" so I was seeking some balance. I also got a little younger. I have always liked Schmidt and in real life he produced a career-best 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 93 strikeouts over 85.1 innings in 16 regular-season starts with the Yankees in 2024. His ZiPS projection for 2025 is down a tad from Imanaga but still solid at 3.91 ERA, 108/35 K/BB in 106.0IP with a 106 ERA+. Likewise I, like ZiPS, am a fan of 20 year young Mena who got a good projection of 4.09, 97/44 (110.0) 101 ERA+. Given the age and/or recent health issues with some of my other SP (Verlander, Cobb and Morton) the IBC Padres could use the depth Mena adds to rotation.